The Contrarian's View s published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. My own material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source; quotes from other people are subject to fair-use copyright restrictions. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, open URL http://onashi.org. Former paid subscribers to the printed version are now receiving LIFETIME subscriptions, and subscriptions to the printed version are no longer being accepted. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! ISSN 1536-4429 Phone: (508) 757-2881
But it turned out that by the time we looked, the property had been foreclosed and the bank owned it. As near as I can piece together the story from real estate transaction records and from the neighbors, the last owner took out a home equity loan to renovate the interior and had essentially completed the work when his company transferred him to Texas. The company bought the house in the transfer (at about the peak of the bubble), then put it up for sale; but it didn't lower the price quickly enough in the collapsing real-estate market, and ended up following the market down. Eventually it surrendered the property to the bank, which foreclosed.
Because a corporate transfer was involved, the house was never trashed, as many foreclosures are; indeed, except for some repairs to the roof and mechanical systems, it is in move-in condition.
The house even comes with a small swimming pool,
as you can see in the picture, which was taken during
tropical storm Fay.
In the headline I noted "51% off". Our price for this house was 49% of the asking price when the house was first put on the market two years ago. A check with zillow.com shows that for this house, the price is back where it was in early 2004, just before the bubble got underway.... for this particular property, the bubble has completely burst. And if you allow for the approximately 30% decline in the purchasing power of the dollar during the past five years.... not according to the government's bogus CPI figures, but by the real rate of inflation as tracked by knowledgeable experts such as John Williams.... then the current property value is well below trendline.
In some of the foreclosures my wife and I looked at, it was clear that the former occupants had left in some haste and under duress. Neither one of us wanted to acquire a second home at the expense of some family which was losing its primary home, even though sages pointed out to us that we in no way were the cause of anybody losing a home. In fact, as I pointed out to my wife, as perverse as it may sound, by buying a house we are helping establish a bottom for the real-estate market, and we may be helping people to hang onto their houses who might otherwise lose them if the bust's downward thrust spiralled completely out of control.
As long-time readers of The Contrarian's View know, I am invariably too early in my investment purchases (the bottom is still in the future). So I expected that we were about a year too early for this house purchase (from a financial point of view).... I did not expect the ultimate bottom in Florida house prices until the summer of 2009. It's just that the layout and traffic flow in this particular house work really well for us and our dogs. (The dogs have told me they're really looking forward to daily swims in the pool!)
Now, with the nationalization of the U.S. home mortgage market (through the government's "rescue" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) I'm not so sure.... because the Feds will essentially be buying mortgages on the open market and thus supporting lower mortgage rates, the bottom may be now. With the government's heavy interfering hand, home prices may not climb again in real terms for many years, but that same heavy hand does have the clout to arrest the decline.
Just out of curiosity, my wife and I visited the house we had bid on in May and lost (see May 2008 issue). Whoever it was that had put down the $10K nonrefundable deposit backed out of the deal and lost his deposit. The people who bought the house were the original owners; the husband had been transferred back to the area and felt safe bidding on it because he knew the house and what was wrong with it. His purchase price was the same as what my wife and I had agreed to pay, and he had spent about $40K to make it livable again, which was my estimate for the fix-up costs.
The route to our new Florida home takes us past the
shit-brown house I described in the March 2006
issue. It was occupied in February 2008; but, as you
can see from the picture (below) I took in August
2008, it is now vacant, looking forlorn with its
weedy, overgrown lawn. Just another casualty in the
housing bust, no doubt REO and on its way to
foreclosure.
For most of the decade, banks largely avoided borrowing from the Fed. There was plenty of cheap money available elsewhere. They had little reason to submit to the extra scrutiny that it required. And there was little stress in the banking system. Now, all that has changed. Now, borrowing at the Fed's discount window has surged - from a weekly average of a meager $1 million per day at its low point last year to a weekly average of $18,469 million per day last week. What would be the growth rate of an explosion of that magnitude? "Only" 1.7 MILLION percent - not exactly a sign of stability in our financial system. The fact is the Fed's lending is going berserk, a blatant indicator of severe stress and more big troubles ahead for banks. - Martin Weiss
The Federal Reserve can dish out all the money it wants. But if banks aren't lending it or if no one wants to borrow it, then it's useless. It will not be used to invest in new businesses, it will not help to create more jobs, and it will not aid consumer spending patterns. It boils down to this: The market process is taking back control, and we can expect deflation. But let's not be scared - deflation restores real value to its rightful place. It tends to boost the value of money relative to goods, i.e. increasing general purchasing power for those with cash balances. It allows the most efficient users of scarce capital to survive, and those propped up by artificial manipulation of the rate of interest and crony capitalism to die - as it should be. - Jack Crooks
So we come, over the next year or so, to a fascinating point in history which will give us one of two possible
outcomes. The optimistic case is that because of inter-market linkages, the expansion of federal financial
strategy toward foreign policy goals and anti-terrorism efforts, and all the like, will add systemic resilience to
the point where the Global Economic System will be able to muddle through a massive periodic correction of
past excesses in the credit markets. The pessimistic outcome is that the excesses in the financial instruments
markets have now been spread around so much - touching almost every part of the USA systemically, that a
Crash now will not only trash the banksters on Wall Street, but it will trash the Military, Agriculture, Industry,
and Services. Each has become so intertwined with the financial system that the systemic decline threatening
could essentially take down the whole country, not just the financial core. We shouldn't have too long to wait.
A year at tops. But if you wake up one morning and read headlines about how the U.S. Dollar, currently in a
counter-trend rally against other global currencies, has suddenly reversed course and is in decline again - to the
point where ships full of goods for the American market are turned around on the high seas to take their goods
back home - then that will finally answer the question of whether expansion of the pool of players with 'skin
in the game' really does add systemic stability, or whether it simply crashes the whole country. - George Ure
The good news is that, technically, there are signs that stocks are at a major bottoming level.... maybe not the ultimate bear-market bottom, but at least a meaningful intermediate bottom. Although in mid July I saw extremely-oversold technical signals wildly flashing, the substantial rally that usually follows such extreme levels has not yet materialized. Perhaps the Fan/Fred "rescue" will trigger the long overdue rally. When the rally arrives, I expect stocks to move higher well into 2009, until disillusionment with the new political administration sets in. (Remember, there is a demographic bias for the bear market to continue.)
The caveat: Systemic risk has not gone away, and risk rises in October and November, and it could overwhelm any putative rally. I currently give odds for a systemic collapse (by which I mean a near-total freezup of bank lending, a global stock-market collapse [30+ percent] and the onset of a true depression) at about 25%, rising to 45% for October and November, thereafter declining to about 20% into 2009.
That's quite a choice: Time for a big bear-market
rally, unless the credit crunch really gets going and
blows up the whole system. And nobody can say for
certain which will be the outcome.... such is the
nature of our current schizoid financial system. I
think I would err on the side of caution.
A. "Inheritance" - real (normalized) "dividend and interest distribution" portfolio:
SUMMARY - "Inheritance":
Original cost: $100,000.00 (normalized)
Present value: $120,038.11 (see below)
Increase: 20,038.11 [+20.04%]
COMMENT on "Inheritance": Enjoy your view of this portfolio, then kiss it goodbye for awhile. It is being flattened/borrowed against to help finance the Florida house. At the moment my wife and I are undecided whether to sell our existing condo, or lease it. If we sell, the funds will replenish the Inheritance portfolio and it will return here after I have replaced much of what was sold (hopefully at lower prices). If we lease the condo, then I'm not yet sure just how I will handle this. The prices shown are as of July 31, 2008, as I did not get a chance to do a snapshot just before we put down a deposit on the house.
My apologies to Mark Hulbert, whom I believe has been tracking this portfolio with apparently good results; but occasionally life's choices impinge on snapshots of one's finances. Nothing is forever, including this newsletter or the portfolios in it. Did you ever see a coffin with pockets?
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $10,699.00
Present value: $21,852.12
Increase: $11,153.12 [+106.89%]
COMMENT on "PIG": There is no change from the last issue.
C. Roth IRAs - real portfolio:
SUMMARY - Roth IRAs:
Original cost: $30,466.19
Present value: $36,833.15
Increase: $ 6,366.96 [+20.90%]
COMMENT on Roth IRAs: More shares of Marshall & Ilsley were added; otherwise there is no change.
D. TIAA/CREF 403(b) and (non-Roth) IRA retirement plans: My TIAA-CREF is in a state of flux. The total amount of these retirement funds has not fluctuated much since I retired in December 2004, but I have been taking monthly withdrawals from the IRA component while allowing the SRA component to accumulate. Now the SRA is large enough to support monthly income payments for my statistically-expected lifetime.... and I am not too far from the time when tax law forces me to take withdrawals from all of my government-blessed retirement accounts (except the Roths). So I am switching my monthly income from the IRA to the SRA; then I will be moving the IRA from the clutches of TIAA-CREF to Fidelity, where I can invest it for a higher rate of return, and take additional monhly income from it. (The TIAA-CREF stock investment choices are all more or less different flavors of the same thing, and their performance sucks in a bear market.) After this all settles down, the numbers that used to appear here will return.
TIAA-CREF values, 8Sep2008: stock, 228.92; equity-index, 87.76; MM, 25.33; bond, 85.56; inflation-indexed bond, 54.02; real estate, 311.67.
COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend": We are currently on a SELL signal of June 10, 2008. (The indicator chart is not up to date, but a quick look shows that the sell signal is still intact.)
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Tue 19 Feb 08 . I# . |12337.22 |-. *
Wed 20 Feb 08 . | #. |12427.26 |-. *
Thu 21 Feb 08 # I . |12284.30 | - *
Fri 22 Feb 08 . #I . |12381.02 |-. *
Mon 25 Feb 08 . | . # }|12570.22 + . *
Tue 26 Feb 08 . | . # |12684.92 |+. *
Wed 27 Feb 08 . | #. |12694.28 |+. *
Thu 28 Feb 08 .# | . |12582.18 |+. *
Fri 29 Feb 08 # . I . {|12266.39 + . *
Mon 3 Mar 08 #. I . |12258.90 | - *
Tue 4 Mar 08 # . I . |12213.80 | . - *
Wed 5 Mar 08 . #I . |12254.99 | . - *
Thu 6 Mar 08 # . I . |12040.39 @| . - *
Fri 7 Mar 08 # . I . |11893.69 @|~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 10 Mar 08 # . I . |11740.15 @| . - *
Tue 11 Mar 08 . & . |12156.81 | . - *
Wed 12 Mar 08 #. I . |12360.58 @| . - *
Thu 13 Mar 08 .# I . |12145.74 | . - *
Fri 14 Mar 08 # . I . |11951.09 | . - *
Mon 17 Mar 08 # . I . |11972.25 | . - *
Tue 18 Mar 08 . I# . |12392.66 | . - *
Wed 19 Mar 08 # . I . |12099.66 | . - *
Thu 20 Mar 08 . #I . |12361.32 | . - *
Mon 24 Mar 08 . I .# |12548.64 |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 25 Mar 08 . | #. |12532.60 + . *
Wed 26 Mar 08 .# | . |12422.86 |-. *
Thu 27 Mar 08 # I . |12302.46 + . *
Fri 28 Mar 08 # . I . |12216.40 |-. *
Mon 31 Mar 08 . #I . |12262.89 | - *
Tue 1 Apr 08 . | . # |12654.36 | - *
Wed 2 Apr 08 . | # |12605.83 |-. *
Thu 3 Apr 08 . | .# }|12626.03 |+. *
Fri 4 Apr 08 . | .# |12609.42 | .+ *
Mon 7 Apr 08 . #| . |12612.43 | .+ *
Tue 8 Apr 08 . | . # |12576.44 | .+ *
Wed 9 Apr 08 . | # |12527.26 | .+ *
Thu 10 Apr 08 . | .# |12581.98 | .+ *
Fri 11 Apr 08 . | .# |12325.42 | .+ *
Mon 14 Apr 08 # | . |12302.06 | + *
Tue 15 Apr 08 . |# . |12362.47 |+. *
Wed 16 Apr 08 . | . # |12619.27 | + *
Thu 17 Apr 08 . | # |12620.49 | + *
Fri 18 Apr 08 . | . # |12849.36 | .+ *
Mon 21 Apr 08 . | # |12825.02 | . + *
Tue 22 Apr 08 . #| . |12720.23 | .+ *
Wed 23 Apr 08 . #| . |12673.22 | + *
Thu 24 Apr 08 . | #. |12848.95 | + *
Fri 25 Apr 08 . | .# |12891.86 |+. *
Mon 28 Apr 08 . | # |12871.75 |+. *
Tue 29 Apr 08 . #| . |12831.94 |+. *
Wed 30 Apr 08 . |# . |12820.13 |+. *
Thu 1 May 08 . | . # |13010.00 | + *
Fri 2 May 08 . | .# |13058.20 |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mo n 5 May 08 . |# . |12969.54 | + *
Tu e 6 May 08 . | . # |13020.83 | .+ *
We d 7 May 08 . #| . |12814.35 | + *
Thu 8 May 08 . |# . |12866.78 | + *
Fri 9 May 08 . # . |12745.88 |+. *
Mon 12 May 08 . | .# |12876.31 |+. *
Tue 13 May 08 . | # |12832.18 |+. *
Wed 14 May 08 . | . # |12898.38 | + *
Thu 15 May 08 . | . # |12992.66 | .+ *
Fri 16 May 08 . | .# |12986.80 | . + *
Mon 19 May 08 . | .# |13028.16 | . + *
Tue 20 May 08 . # . |12828.68 | .+ *
Wed 21 May 08 . #| . |12601.19 |~+~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 May 08 . # . |12625.62 |+. *
Fri 23 May 08 # . I . |12479.63 |-. *
Tue 27 May 08 . # . |12548.35 | - *
Wed 28 May 08 . # . |12594.03 | - *
Thu 29 May 08 . | #. |12646.22 |-. *
Fri 30 May 08 . | #. |12638.32 |-. *
Mon 2 Jun 08 # | . |12503.82 + . *
Tue 3 Jun 08 . & . |12402.85 + . *
Wed 4 Jun 08 . #I . |12390.48 + . *
Thu 5 Jun 08 . | . # |12604.45 + . *
Fri 6 Jun 08 #. I . |12209.81 |-.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 9 Jun 08 # I . |12280.32 |-. *
Tue 10 Jun 08 #. I . {|12289.76 | - *
Wed 11 Jun 08 # . I . |12083.77 | .- *
Thu 12 Jun 08 # I . |12141.58 | . - *
Fri 13 Jun 08 . & . |12307.35 | . - *
Mon 16 Jun 08 . I# . |12269.08 | .- *
Tue 17 Jun 08 . #I . |12160.30 | - *
Wed 18 Jun 08 # . I . |12029.06 | - *
Thu 19 Jun 08 . #I . |12063.09 | - *
Fri 20 Jun 08 # . I . |11842.69 |~.-~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 23 Jun 08 # . I . |11842.36 | . - *
Tue 24 Jun 08 #. I . |11807.43 | . - *
Wed 25 Jun 08 . #I . |11811.83 | . - *
Thu 26 Jun 08 # . I . |11453.42 @|~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 27 Jun 08 # . I . |11346.51 | . - *
Mon 30 Jun 08 #. I . |11350.01 | . - *
Tue 1 Jul 08 #. I . |11382.26 | . - *
Wed 2 Jul 08 # . I . |11215.51 @| . - *
Thu 3 Jul 08 # . I . |11288.54 @| . - *
Mon 7 Jul 08 # . I . |11231.96 @| . - *
Tue 8 Jul 08 .# I . |11384.21 @| . - *
Wed 9 Jul 08 # . I . |11147.44 @| . *
Thu 10 Jul 08 # . I . |11229.02 @| . - *
Fri 11 Jul 08 # . I . |11100.54 @|~.~~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 14 Jul 08 # . I . |11055.19 @| . - *
Tue 15 Jul 08 # . I . |11962.54 @|~.~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 16 Jul 08 .# I . |11239.28 @|*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 17 Jul 08 . & . |11446.66 | . - *
Fri 18 Jul 08 .# I . |11496.57 | . - *
Mon 21 Jul 08 .# I . |11467.34 | .- *
Tue 22 Jul 08 . I# . |11602.50 |-. *
Wed 23 Jul 08 . | #. |11632.38 |-. *
Thu 24 Jul 08 # . I . |11349.28 | - *
Fri 25 Jul 08 .# I . |11370.69 | - *
Mon 28 Jul 08 # . I . |11131.08 | .- *
Tue 29 Jul 08 . & . |11397.56 | .- *
Wed 30 Jul 08 . | #. |11583.69 | .- *
Thu 31 Jul 08 # I . |11378.02 | - *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": We're on a SELL signal of June 6, 2008. (The indicator chart is not up to date, but a quick look shows that the sell signal is still intact.)
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND _____________________________
Tue 19 Feb 08 # . I . | 2306.20 | . - *
Wed 20 Feb 08 # I . | 2327.10 | . - *
Thu 21 Feb 08 . #I . | 2299.78 | . - *
Fri 22 Feb 08 #. I . | 2305.35 | . - *
Mon 25 Feb 08 . & . | 2327.48 | .- *
Tue 26 Feb 08 . & . | 2344.99 | - *
Wed 27 Feb 08 . #I . | 2353.78 | - *
Thu 28 Feb 08 # . I . | 2331.57 | .- *
Fri 29 Feb 08 # . I . | 2271.48 | . - *
Mon 3 Mar 08 # . I . | 2258.60 | . - *
Tue 4 Mar 08 # . I . | 2260.28 @| . - *
Wed 5 Mar 08 .# I . | 2272.81 @| . - *
Thu 6 Mar 08 # . I . | 2220.50 @| . - *
Fri 7 Mar 08 # . I . | 2212.49 @| . - *
Mon 10 Mar 08 # . I . | 2169.34 @| . -*
Tue 11 Mar 08 . #I . | 2255.76 | . - *
Wed 12 Mar 08 # . I . | 2243.87 @| . - *
Thu 13 Mar 08 # I . | 2263.61 | . - *
Fri 14 Mar 08 # . I . | 2212.49 @| . - *
Mon 17 Mar 08 # . I . | 2177.01 @| . - *
Tue 18 Mar 08 . & . | 2268.26 | . - *
Wed 19 Mar 08 # . I . | 2209.96 @| . - *
Thu 20 Mar 08 . #I . | 2258.11 | . - *
Mon 24 Mar 08 . I #. | 2326.75 | .- *
Tue 25 Mar 08 . #I . | 2341.05 | - *
Wed 26 Mar 08 # . I . | 2324.36 | .- *
Thu 27 Mar 08 # . I . | 2280.83 | .- *
Fri 28 Mar 08 # . I . | 2261.18 | . - *
Mon 31 Mar 08 .# I . | 2279.10 | . - *
Tue 1 Apr 08 . | #. | 2362.75 | . - *
Wed 2 Apr 08 .# | . | 2361 40 | .- *
Thu 3 Apr 08 . #| . | 2363.30 | - *
Fri 4 Apr 08 . |# . | 2370.98 |-. *
Mon 7 Apr 08 .# | . | 2279.10 |-. *
Tue 8 Apr 08 . | #. | 2362.75 |-. *
Wed 9 Apr 08 .# | . | 2361.40 |-. *
Thu 10 Apr 08 . #| . | 2363.30 |-. *
Fri 11 Apr 08 . |# . | 2370.98 |-. *
Mon 14 Apr 08 # . | . | 2275.82 | - *
Tue 15 Apr 08 # | . | 2286.04 | .- *
Wed 16 Apr 08 . | #. }| 2350.11 | - *
Thu 17 Apr 08 #. | . [| 2341.83 | - *
Fri 18 Apr 08 . | # ]| 2402.97 | - *
Mon 21 Apr 08 . #| . | 2408.04 |-. *
Tue 22 Apr 08 # . | . [| 2376.94 | - *
Wed 23 Apr 08 . #| . | 2405.21 | - *
Thu 24 Apr 08 . #| . ]| 2428.92 | - *
Fri 25 Apr 08 .# | . | 2422.93 | .- *
Mon 28 Apr 08 . # . | 2424.40 | - *
Tue 29 Apr 08 . #| . | 2426.10 |-. *
Wed 30 Apr 08 # | . | 2412.80 | - *
Thu 1 May 08 . | # | 2480.71 |-. *
Fri 2 May 08 . # . | 2476.99 |-. *
Mon 5 May 08 #. | . | 2464.12 |-. *
Tue 6 May 08 . |# . | 2483.31 |-. *
Wed 7 May 08 # . I . {| 2438.49 |-. *
Thu 8 May 08 .# I . | 2451.24 | - *
Fri 9 May 08 #. I . | 2445.52 | .- *
Mon 12 May 08 . | #. }| 2488.49 | - *
Tue 13 May 08 . |# . | 2495.12 | - *
Wed 14 May 08 . |# . | 2496.70 |-. *
Thu 15 May 08 . | #. | 2533.73 + . *
Fri 16 May 08 . # . | 2528.85 |+. *
Mon 19 May 08 . #| . | 2516.09 + . *
Tue 20 May 08 #. I . | 2492.26 |-. *
Wed 21 May 08 # . I . {| 2448.27 | - *
Thu 22 May 08 . & . | 2464.58 | - *
Fri 23 May 08 # . I . | 2444.67 | . - *
Tue 27 May 08 . I #. | 2481.24 | .- *
Wed 28 May 08 . #I . | 2486.70 | - *
Thu 29 May 08 . | #. }| 2508.32 |-. *
Fri 30 May 08 . | #. | 2522.66 |-. *
Mon 2 Jun 08 #. I . {| 2491.53 + . *
Tue 3 Jun 08 # I . | 2480.48 |-. *
Wed 4 Jun 08 . I# . | 2503.14 |-. *
Thu 5 Jun 08 . | .# }| 2549.94 + . *
Fri 6 Jun 08 # . I . {| 2474.56 | - *
Mon 9 Jun 08 # . I . | 2459.46 | - *
Tue 10 Jun 08 # . I . | 2448.94 | .- *
Wed 11 Jun 08 # . I . | 2394.01 | . - *
Thu 12 Jun 08 # I . | 2404.35 @| . - *
Fri 13 Jun 08 . & . | 2454.50 | . - *
Mon 16 Jun 08 . I# . | 2474.78 | . - *
Tue 17 Jun 08 #. I . | 2457.73 | .- *
Wed 18 Jun 08 # . I . | 2429.71 | .- *
Thu 19 Jun 08 . #I . | 2462.06 | .- *
Fri 20 Jun 08 # . I . | 2406.09 | . - *
Mon 23 Jun 08 # . I . | 2385.74 @| . - *
Tue 24 Jun 08 # . I . | 2368.28 @| . - *
Wed 25 Jun 08 . #I . | 2401.26 | . - *
Thu 26 Jun 08 # . I . | 2321.37 @| . - *
Fri 27 Jun 08 # . I . | 2315.63 @| . - *
Mon 30 Jun 08 # . I . | 2292.98 @| . - *
Tue 1 Jul 08 #. I . | 2304.97 @| . - *
Wed 2 Jul 08 # . I . | 2251.46 @| . - *
Thu 3 Jul 08 # . I . | 2245.38 @| . - *
Mon 7 Jul 08 #. I . | 2243.32 @| . - *
Tue 8 Jul 08 .# I . | 2294.44 | . - *
Wed 9 Jul 08 # . I . | 2234.89 @| . - *
Thu 10 Jul 08 # I . | 2257.85 | . - *
Fri 11 Jul 08 # . I . | 2239.08 | . - *
Mon 14 Jul 08 # . I . | 2212.87 @| . - *
Tue 15 Jul 08 #. I . | 2215.71 @| . - *
Wed 16 Jul 08 . & . | 2284.85 | . - *
Thu 17 Jul 08 . I# . | 2312.30 | . - *
Fri 18 Jul 08 .# I . | 2282.78 | .- *
Mon 21 Jul 08 . #I . | 2279.53 | - *
Tue 22 Jul 08 . I# . | 2303.96 |-. *
Wed 23 Jul 08 . | #. | 2325.88 + . *
Thu 24 Jul 08 # . I . | 2280.11 |-. *
Fri 25 Jul 08 . I# . | 2310.53 |-. *
Mon 28 Jul 08 # . I . | 2264.22 | - *
Tue 29 Jul 08 . I# . | 2319.62 | - *
Wed 30 Jul 08 . # . | 2329.72 | - *
Thu 31 Jul 08 .# | . | 2325.55 | - *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline
lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces:NEXT ISSUE - should appear in October 2008. With the added work of getting a second house up and running, I may not be able to get out 11 issues this year (July to June); but I will do my best.