The Contrarian's View s published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. My own material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source; quotes from other people are subject to fair-use copyright restrictions. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, open URL http://onashi.org. Former paid subscribers to the printed version are now receiving LIFETIME subscriptions, and subscriptions to the printed version are no longer being accepted. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! ISSN 1536-4429 Phone: (508) 757-2881
When is enough, enough? How much is too much?
Those are the questions I've been pondering lately as I survey the housing and mortgage market landscape.
It seems like every week we get another borrower bailout initiative. Or another multi-billion dollar package of legislation. Or another whiz-bang Federal Reserve program that keeps U.S. banks and brokers on the dole for a few more months. Or more recently, a blatantly transparent attempt by the Securities and Exchange Commission to squeeze short-sellers and drive stock prices higher ... but only for a select group of 19 financial companies.
Are we a free market society? Is this a capitalist economy? I thought so.
But with each extra step to prevent the failure of a lender who made too many stupid decisions ... with every effort to keep borrowers who overextended themselves on home mortgages ... and with every move to prevent what NEEDS to happen to restore health in the housing market - namely, falling home prices - I wonder that much more.
And I'm afraid the long-term consequences of all these bailouts will be severe. So today, I want to examine how we got here - and talk about where we're going ...
The credit crisis started striking in earnest last summer. The Fed's initial response was to cut interest rates, hesitantly at first, then much more aggressively. The idea was two-fold:
#1. Drive funding costs lower in order to bail out
lenders by fattening their net interest margins (the
difference between what they pay to borrow money
and what they make on loans) ...
AND
#2. Bail out borrowers with adjustable rate
mortgages or home equity lines of credit by lowering
the cost of paying their loans back.
The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, and thrown billions and billions at the markets ... But the Fed didn't just deliver 325 basis points of interest rate cuts. It has also rolled out liquidity program after liquidity program for commercial banks and (later) investment banks.
The Fed's efforts on that front began in December 2007 with the Term Auction Facility, or TAF. The TAF allows depository institutions to swap securities for Fed loans. Originally, the TAF auctions were going to offer $20 billion a pop, with 28-day maturities on the loans. But the Fed soon raised the auction sizes to $30 billion ... then $50 billion ... then $75 billion. The Fed also said TAF auctions would last "at least" six months.
Then this week, things changed again. The Fed said it will now offer 84-day loans on top of 28-day ones. And it released an auction schedule that implies TAF auctions through November at least. In other words, the "temporary" bailout program is now going to last for who knows how long.
And even the TAF wasn't enough for bailout-hungry lenders! The Fed was forced to roll out the TSLF - or Term Securities Lending Facility - in March. The TSLF lets primary dealers bring all kinds of less than-pristine securities to the Fed and swap them for top-notch Treasuries. Fannie and Freddie debt? Residential mortgage backed securities? Commercial mortgage backed securities? Bundles of car loans, student loans, and credit card balances? "No problem. We'll take it all," said the Fed. The total amount of U.S. debt up for grabs: $200 billion.
Did that do it? Nope. The brokers started facing more funding problems. So the Fed put them on the dole as well, introducing the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, or PDCF. This allowed other dealers, as opposed to just depository institutions, to borrow at the Fed's discount window. Like the TAF, it was originally slated to be in place for six months. But surprise, surprise: Our financial institutions apparently aren't in good enough shape to actually operate without tens of billions of dollars of Fed assistance month in and month out. So rather than cut them off and let them stand on their own two feet and merits, like American businesses USED to have to do, the Fed just announced that it will extend the PDCF and TSLF programs through January 30, 2009.
Anyone want to lay odds that "deadline" will stick? Didn't think so.
At the same time, the Treasury Department and Bush administration started rolling out various programs to help borrowers. The FHASecure program was designed to make it easier for borrowers who had fallen behind on their ARMs to refinance into FHA insured mortgages.
Meanwhile, Congress and the Treasury Department have introduced a slew of aid programs!
Then there was the HOPE NOW coalition, a government-industry joint effort to encourage more loan modifications. That's when lenders extend loan maturities, reduce interest rates for a period of time, or otherwise try to stave off foreclosure by changing the terms of borrower's mortgages.
Meanwhile, tax laws were modified so that forgiven debt was no longer considered income. Let me explain ...
Say you bought a $200,000 house with no money down, and its value fell. You might negotiate a short sale with the lender that would allow you to sell the house for $180,000. You would use the proceeds to pay off that part of the mortgage balance, while the lender forgives the remaining $20,000. Previously, that $20,000 would have been considered income, and you would have paid taxes on it. That ended when Bush signed the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 into law in December.
And now the President just signed the massive Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 into law this week. This bill has a little bit of everything:
- It authorizes the FHA to insure up to $300 billion in new mortgages. Lenders are required to write down the principal of outstanding loans to 90% of the current value of the underlying properties. Then borrowers can refinance out of their private loans and into new FHA-backed mortgages.
- The bill also permanently raises the size of home mortgages that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA can back or buy - to as much as $625,000 in higher cost areas.
- Localities will get $3.9 billion to buy, renovate, and resell foreclosed properties. State housing authorities will be granted permission to sell another $11 billion in tax-free bonds to fund mortgage refinance programs.
- And first-time home buyers who purchase between April 9, 2008 and July 1, 2009 will get a $7,500 tax credit (though in reality, the benefit is essentially an interest-free loan that you have to pay back over 15 years).
But the most important - and potentially, the costliest - provisions pertain to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The two so-called "Government Sponsored Enterprises" now have access to an unlimited line of credit from the Treasury (Previously, it was $2.25 billion each). The government has also pledged to buy equity from the two GSEs, should they need help raising money.
Officially, these moves don't bring Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's $5.2 TRILLION in direct and contingent mortgage liabilities onto Uncle Sam's balance sheet. But by making the implicit backing of the companies explicit, the government might as well have taken that step.
And of course, the mortgage and housing industries were ALREADY receiving billions of dollars worth of subsidies and tax favoritism. Since 1997, married couples have been able to exclude as much as $500,000 in capital gains from the sale of their primary residences from the tax man. Stocks and other assets get no such treatment. Borrowers can also deduct the interest on up to $1 million in first mortgages and up to $100,000 on home equity loans. That means you can borrow $5,000 against your house to cruise the Mediterranean and then catch a tax break for it!
Here's the real question that needs to be asked ...
What's the Price of All These Bailouts?
My fingers are almost blistering from recounting the various direct and indirect ways the Fed, Congress, and the Bush administration have tried to bail out lenders, borrowers, builders, and everyone else who helped inflate and/or profited handsomely from the housing bubble.
There's just one problem. Bailing out anyone and everyone isn't free! The cost of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac support program alone could total as much as $100 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. All the other provisions in the latest housing bill will likely end up costing billions more.
Meanwhile, the Fed's actions are increasingly weakening its OWN balance sheet. Total Federal Reserve credit is about $883 billion, up from $850 billion a year ago. The vast majority (about 92%) of the Fed's money was in rock-solid U.S. Treasuries a year ago. Now only 54% is. That's a consequence of lending tens of billions of dollars to institutions via the TAF ... of assuming $29 billion in lousy paper as part of the Bear Stearns bailout ... and more.
And the cost of all the old tax breaks on housing and mortgages (things like the mortgage interest deduction)? Well, that will come to about $148 billion in 2008, according to a Washington Post piece from Robert Samuelson. He writes:
"The real lessons of the housing crisis have gotten lost. It's routinely portrayed as the financial system run amok; the housing market became a casino. The remedy, we're told, is to enact rules that prevent a repetition. All this is partly true. But it ignores a larger truth: Our infatuation with homeownership, embedded in dozens of government policies, has turned housing - once a justifiable symbol of the American dream - into something of a national nightmare.
"As a society, we're overinvesting in real estate. We build too many McMansions. They use too much energy, and their carrying costs, including mortgage payments, absorb too much of Americans' incomes. We think everyone should become a homeowner, when many families can't or shouldn't. The result is to encourage lending to weak borrowers who are likely to default. The avid pursuit of a few more percentage points on the homeownership rate (it rose from 64 percent of households in 1994 to 69 percent in 2005) has condoned enormously damaging policies."
It's not like we have all this money lying around to pay for all of these programs, either. New projections show the budget deficit should come in at about $389 billion in 2008. And next year, it's poised to explode - to a record $482 billion. The previous estimate was for a 2009 deficit of just $409 billion.
What does that mean? We'll have to sell Treasuries by the truckload to fund all the red ink! You, I, and our kids and grandkids are going to have to pay that bill.
None of this even TOUCHES upon the moral hazard question - whether all these bailouts will just reinforce the idea that lenders and borrowers are free to recklessly speculate, knowing that if they get in trouble as a result, Uncle Sam will bail them out (using our money).
Finally, has anyone stopped to think about whether mobilizing the full faith and credit of the U.S. to prevent or slow the decline of home prices is a laudable goal? From where I sit, falling home prices aren't the problem. They are the SOLUTION! As prices fall, homes will become more affordable for NEW buyers. They'll be able to purchase houses with traditional 30-year fixed loans - not all the newfangled crap the industry foisted on people between 2003 and 2006. They won't have to take out loans with payments that swallow 40% or 50% of their monthly income. They'll be able to enter SUSTAINABLE homeownership, not just get into a house for the sake of getting into a house - and then lose it a year or two later. Even investors will be enticed back into the market if lenders are allowed to foreclose and fire sale more property. Heck, that's already happening in some select markets here in Florida, in California, and a few other of the places where prices have fallen the hardest and fastest.
The combination of owner and investor buying, in turn, will reduce inventory levels and get supply back in line with demand ... IF we let prices go where they need to go. It's certainly food for thought as the bailout brigade keeps riding out from the stables of Washington, D.C.
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Businesses do not want to lend, consumers do not want to spend, financing approved projects (even large projects in supposedly "recession-proof" Las Vegas) is difficult. Unemployment is soaring, demand for credit ratings is dropping, there is no driver for jobs, the service sector is shot and that is going to put still more pressure on consumer discretionary spending and business borrowing. The credit crunch is not only pervasive, it has now reached critical mass where it will start feeding on itself. The Fed is powerless to stop it. - Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Last week, the U.S. monetary authorities made a fateful decision. Rather than let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fail, or take these two horribly mismanaged firms over via receivership, the U.S. Fed and Treasury Department, essentially, nationalized the bad risks and socialized the losses. This is going to come back to haunt and hurt us, like a guy with a chain saw on Halloween night. - Byron King
In a free market economy, Fannie and Freddie might be allowed to go under. Investors and lenders would both suffer - but the economy would go on and be strengthened by getting rid of its nasty carbuncles and tumors. But this is not a free market. It is a market where the big players always seem to manage to get an edge for themselves. For example, since 2003, Wall Street paid out a quarter of a trillion in bonuses - most of it on dubious, debt-drenched transactions that were never completed. And then, when the debt goes bad, in comes the U.S. government to bail out the whole system. The Wall Street pros keep their bonuses, with not even a "thank you" to the feds. - Bill Bonner
Taxpayers are on the hook. The Fed has already assumed a $29.5 billion responsibility in the take-under of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan (JPM). Now the Congressional Budget Office says Fannie, Freddie Rescue May Cost $25 Billion. Rest assured the Fannie bailout will be $200 billion (if not far more), after Congress is done meddling. Innocent taxpayers who sat this bubble out now are on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars to bail out the drunken party goers. Losses are socialized. Profits go to the already wealthy. Sadly, that is how our corrupt system works. - Mike Shedlock
When people spend too much money - when speculators gamble too recklessly - when the government gives out to much cash and credit - there have to be consequences. A free market is not a system designed to give people a free lunch. It's designed to make them better people - by rewarding them when they do the right thing and punishing them when they do the wrong thing. For the last 20 years - at least - people have been doing things that the old economists would have regarded as 'moral failings.' That is, they've been spending more than they make - for example. Now, they've being punished. They're being re-educated. And they're going to end up poorer - but wiser. - Bill Bonner
Home foreclosures in the second quarter have nearly tripled ... Mortgage rates are surging, creating many more foreclosures... Shares of giant financial institutions that are caught in the crosscurrents - like Merrill Lynch - are getting slammed anew. And total losses from this crisis have just hit $470 billion, headed for $1.6 trillion. So I'll say it again, and I'll continue saying it until I'm blue in the face: This crisis is not easing. This crisis is intensifying. Sadly, before it's over, it's bound to trigger many more financial failures, force Washington to bail out many more institutions, and drive many key markets into a tailspin. - Martin Weiss
In its heyday, General Motors was a $66 billion company with nearly half of the U.S. auto market. Today, it's a $5 billion company with less than one-fifth of the U.S. market. Hard to believe, but true: Right now, in terms of the total value of shares outstanding, our country's largest maker of real cars is actually smaller than Mattel, a maker of TOY cars. - Martin Weiss
At the macro level, what's really going on is that corporations are extending their subjugation of humans. If
you are a corporation, your tax is based on profits. If you are a human, your tax is based on your slightly
modified gross. You lose. If you paid tax like a corporation, you might pay only on what you were able to
save last year, and likely nothing at all if you had your 'headquarters' offshore. I report every dime of income
I make, of course, and recommend you do as well. You can't fight this kind of battle through individual acts
of tax protest. The 'system' will get you. One against the many is not my kind of odds. The place to change it
is throwing incumbents out of office who have continued to press for most-favored-tax status of corporations
over you and me. - George Ure
I currently give odds for a systemic collapse (by
which I mean a near-total freezup of bank lending, a
global stock-market collapse [30+ percent] and the
onset of a true depression) at about 25%, and I
expect these odds not to change much until mid
fall.... at which time it is possible the credit crunch
will escalate into a much bigger failure.
A. "Inheritance" - real (normalized) "dividend and interest distribution" portfolio:
SUMMARY - "Inheritance":
Original cost: $100,000.00 (normalized)
Present value: $120,165.11 (see below)
Increase: 20,165.11 [+20.17%]
COMMENT on "Inheritance": There is no change
from last month (other than the name change from
Citizens Communications to Frontier).
The portfolio cost (normalized) is $119,819.32 with
$13,792.56 currently in cash or near-cash.
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $10,699.00
Present value: $22,135.67
Increase: $11,436.67 [+106.89%]
COMMENT on "PIG": There is no change from the last issue.
C. Roth IRAs - real portfolio:
SUMMARY - Roth IRAs:
Original cost: $30,466.19
Present value: $39,448.27
Increase: $ 8,982.08 [+29.48%]
COMMENT on Roth IRAs: More shares of Marshall & Ilsley were added; otherwise there is no change.
D. TIAA/CREF 403(b) and (non-Roth) IRA retirement plans: My TIAA-CREF and Fidelity non-individual-stocks retirement investments, both the part from which I am making monthly withdrawals and the parts that are "resting", are invested as follows: TIAA traditional, 80.95%; money-markets, 0.01%; CREF Global Equities, 4.05%; CREF Growth, 4.02%; CREF Equity Index, 3.93%; TIAA real estate, 1.66%; MLPs, 4.94%; TIAA-CREF High-Yield II, 0.44%.
TIAA-CREF values, 31Jul2008: stock, 228.86; equity-index, 87.72; MM, 25.27; bond, 84.18; inflation-indexed bond, 53.64; real estate, 314.32; TIAA current yield in SRA, about 4.8%. COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend": We are currently on a SELL signal of June 10, 2008.
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Tue 19 Feb 08 . I# . |12337.22 |-. *
Wed 20 Feb 08 . | #. |12427.26 |-. *
Thu 21 Feb 08 # I . |12284.30 | - *
Fri 22 Feb 08 . #I . |12381.02 |-. *
Mon 25 Feb 08 . | . # }|12570.22 + . *
Tue 26 Feb 08 . | . # |12684.92 |+. *
Wed 27 Feb 08 . | #. |12694.28 |+. *
Thu 28 Feb 08 .# | . |12582.18 |+. *
Fri 29 Feb 08 # . I . {|12266.39 + . *
Mon 3 Mar 08 #. I . |12258.90 | - *
Tue 4 Mar 08 # . I . |12213.80 | . - *
Wed 5 Mar 08 . #I . |12254.99 | . - *
Thu 6 Mar 08 # . I . |12040.39 @| . - *
Fri 7 Mar 08 # . I . |11893.69 @|~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 10 Mar 08 # . I . |11740.15 @| . - *
Tue 11 Mar 08 . & . |12156.81 | . - *
Wed 12 Mar 08 #. I . |12360.58 @| . - *
Thu 13 Mar 08 .# I . |12145.74 | . - *
Fri 14 Mar 08 # . I . |11951.09 | . - *
Mon 17 Mar 08 # . I . |11972.25 | . - *
Tue 18 Mar 08 . I# . |12392.66 | . - *
Wed 19 Mar 08 # . I . |12099.66 | . - *
Thu 20 Mar 08 . #I . |12361.32 | . - *
Mon 24 Mar 08 . I .# |12548.64 |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 25 Mar 08 . | #. |12532.60 + . *
Wed 26 Mar 08 .# | . |12422.86 |-. *
Thu 27 Mar 08 # I . |12302.46 + . *
Fri 28 Mar 08 # . I . |12216.40 |-. *
Mon 31 Mar 08 . #I . |12262.89 | - *
Tue 1 Apr 08 . | . # |12654.36 | - *
Wed 2 Apr 08 . | # |12605.83 |-. *
Thu 3 Apr 08 . | .# }|12626.03 |+. *
Fri 4 Apr 08 . | .# |12609.42 | .+ *
Mon 7 Apr 08 . #| . |12612.43 | .+ *
Tue 8 Apr 08 . | . # |12576.44 | .+ *
Wed 9 Apr 08 . | # |12527.26 | .+ *
Thu 10 Apr 08 . | .# |12581.98 | .+ *
Fri 11 Apr 08 . | .# |12325.42 | .+ *
Mon 14 Apr 08 # | . |12302.06 | + *
Tue 15 Apr 08 . |# . |12362.47 |+. *
Wed 16 Apr 08 . | . # |12619.27 | + *
Thu 17 Apr 08 . | # |12620.49 | + *
Fri 18 Apr 08 . | . # |12849.36 | .+ *
Mon 21 Apr 08 . | # |12825.02 | . + *
Tue 22 Apr 08 . #| . |12720.23 | .+ *
Wed 23 Apr 08 . #| . |12673.22 | + *
Thu 24 Apr 08 . | #. |12848.95 | + *
Fri 25 Apr 08 . | .# |12891.86 |+. *
Mon 28 Apr 08 . | # |12871.75 |+. *
Tue 29 Apr 08 . #| . |12831.94 |+. *
Wed 30 Apr 08 . |# . |12820.13 |+. *
Thu 1 May 08 . | . # |13010.00 | + *
Fri 2 May 08 . | .# |13058.20 |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mo n 5 May 08 . |# . |12969.54 | + *
Tu e 6 May 08 . | . # |13020.83 | .+ *
We d 7 May 08 . #| . |12814.35 | + *
Thu 8 May 08 . |# . |12866.78 | + *
Fri 9 May 08 . # . |12745.88 |+. *
Mon 12 May 08 . | .# |12876.31 |+. *
Tue 13 May 08 . | # |12832.18 |+. *
Wed 14 May 08 . | . # |12898.38 | + *
Thu 15 May 08 . | . # |12992.66 | .+ *
Fri 16 May 08 . | .# |12986.80 | . + *
Mon 19 May 08 . | .# |13028.16 | . + *
Tue 20 May 08 . # . |12828.68 | .+ *
Wed 21 May 08 . #| . |12601.19 |~+~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 May 08 . # . |12625.62 |+. *
Fri 23 May 08 # . I . |12479.63 |-. *
Tue 27 May 08 . # . |12548.35 | - *
Wed 28 May 08 . # . |12594.03 | - *
Thu 29 May 08 . | #. |12646.22 |-. *
Fri 30 May 08 . | #. |12638.32 |-. *
Mon 2 Jun 08 # | . |12503.82 + . *
Tue 3 Jun 08 . & . |12402.85 + . *
Wed 4 Jun 08 . #I . |12390.48 + . *
Thu 5 Jun 08 . | . # |12604.45 + . *
Fri 6 Jun 08 #. I . |12209.81 |-.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 9 Jun 08 # I . |12280.32 |-. *
Tue 10 Jun 08 #. I . {|12289.76 | - *
Wed 11 Jun 08 # . I . |12083.77 | .- *
Thu 12 Jun 08 # I . |12141.58 | . - *
Fri 13 Jun 08 . & . |12307.35 | . - *
Mon 16 Jun 08 . I# . |12269.08 | .- *
Tue 17 Jun 08 . #I . |12160.30 | - *
Wed 18 Jun 08 # . I . |12029.06 | - *
Thu 19 Jun 08 . #I . |12063.09 | - *
Fri 20 Jun 08 # . I . |11842.69 |~.-~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 23 Jun 08 # . I . |11842.36 | . - *
Tue 24 Jun 08 #. I . |11807.43 | . - *
Wed 25 Jun 08 . #I . |11811.83 | . - *
Thu 26 Jun 08 # . I . |11453.42 @|~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 27 Jun 08 # . I . |11346.51 | . - *
Mon 30 Jun 08 #. I . |11350.01 | . - *
Tue 1 Jul 08 #. I . |11382.26 | . - *
Wed 2 Jul 08 # . I . |11215.51 @| . - *
Thu 3 Jul 08 # . I . |11288.54 @| . - *
Mon 7 Jul 08 # . I . |11231.96 @| . - *
Tue 8 Jul 08 .# I . |11384.21 @| . - *
Wed 9 Jul 08 # . I . |11147.44 @| . *
Thu 10 Jul 08 # . I . |11229.02 @| . - *
Fri 11 Jul 08 # . I . |11100.54 @|~.~~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 14 Jul 08 # . I . |11055.19 @| . - *
Tue 15 Jul 08 # . I . |11962.54 @|~.~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 16 Jul 08 .# I . |11239.28 @|*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 17 Jul 08 . & . |11446.66 | . - *
Fri 18 Jul 08 .# I . |11496.57 | . - *
Mon 21 Jul 08 .# I . |11467.34 | .- *
Tue 22 Jul 08 . I# . |11602.50 |-. *
Wed 23 Jul 08 . | #. |11632.38 |-. *
Thu 24 Jul 08 # . I . |11349.28 | - *
Fri 25 Jul 08 .# I . |11370.69 | - *
Mon 28 Jul 08 # . I . |11131.08 | .- *
Tue 29 Jul 08 . & . |11397.56 | .- *
Wed 30 Jul 08 . | #. |11583.69 | .- *
Thu 31 Jul 08 # I . |11378.02 | - *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": We're on a SELL signal of June 6, 2008.
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND _____________________________
Tue 19 Feb 08 # . I . | 2306.20 | . - *
Wed 20 Feb 08 # I . | 2327.10 | . - *
Thu 21 Feb 08 . #I . | 2299.78 | . - *
Fri 22 Feb 08 #. I . | 2305.35 | . - *
Mon 25 Feb 08 . & . | 2327.48 | .- *
Tue 26 Feb 08 . & . | 2344.99 | - *
Wed 27 Feb 08 . #I . | 2353.78 | - *
Thu 28 Feb 08 # . I . | 2331.57 | .- *
Fri 29 Feb 08 # . I . | 2271.48 | . - *
Mon 3 Mar 08 # . I . | 2258.60 | . - *
Tue 4 Mar 08 # . I . | 2260.28 @| . - *
Wed 5 Mar 08 .# I . | 2272.81 @| . - *
Thu 6 Mar 08 # . I . | 2220.50 @| . - *
Fri 7 Mar 08 # . I . | 2212.49 @| . - *
Mon 10 Mar 08 # . I . | 2169.34 @| . -*
Tue 11 Mar 08 . #I . | 2255.76 | . - *
Wed 12 Mar 08 # . I . | 2243.87 @| . - *
Thu 13 Mar 08 # I . | 2263.61 | . - *
Fri 14 Mar 08 # . I . | 2212.49 @| . - *
Mon 17 Mar 08 # . I . | 2177.01 @| . - *
Tue 18 Mar 08 . & . | 2268.26 | . - *
Wed 19 Mar 08 # . I . | 2209.96 @| . - *
Thu 20 Mar 08 . #I . | 2258.11 | . - *
Mon 24 Mar 08 . I #. | 2326.75 | .- *
Tue 25 Mar 08 . #I . | 2341.05 | - *
Wed 26 Mar 08 # . I . | 2324.36 | .- *
Thu 27 Mar 08 # . I . | 2280.83 | .- *
Fri 28 Mar 08 # . I . | 2261.18 | . - *
Mon 31 Mar 08 .# I . | 2279.10 | . - *
Tue 1 Apr 08 . | #. | 2362.75 | . - *
Wed 2 Apr 08 .# | . | 2361 40 | .- *
Thu 3 Apr 08 . #| . | 2363.30 | - *
Fri 4 Apr 08 . |# . | 2370.98 |-. *
Mon 7 Apr 08 .# | . | 2279.10 |-. *
Tue 8 Apr 08 . | #. | 2362.75 |-. *
Wed 9 Apr 08 .# | . | 2361.40 |-. *
Thu 10 Apr 08 . #| . | 2363.30 |-. *
Fri 11 Apr 08 . |# . | 2370.98 |-. *
Mon 14 Apr 08 # . | . | 2275.82 | - *
Tue 15 Apr 08 # | . | 2286.04 | .- *
Wed 16 Apr 08 . | #. }| 2350.11 | - *
Thu 17 Apr 08 #. | . [| 2341.83 | - *
Fri 18 Apr 08 . | # ]| 2402.97 | - *
Mon 21 Apr 08 . #| . | 2408.04 |-. *
Tue 22 Apr 08 # . | . [| 2376.94 | - *
Wed 23 Apr 08 . #| . | 2405.21 | - *
Thu 24 Apr 08 . #| . ]| 2428.92 | - *
Fri 25 Apr 08 .# | . | 2422.93 | .- *
Mon 28 Apr 08 . # . | 2424.40 | - *
Tue 29 Apr 08 . #| . | 2426.10 |-. *
Wed 30 Apr 08 # | . | 2412.80 | - *
Thu 1 May 08 . | # | 2480.71 |-. *
Fri 2 May 08 . # . | 2476.99 |-. *
Mon 5 May 08 #. | . | 2464.12 |-. *
Tue 6 May 08 . |# . | 2483.31 |-. *
Wed 7 May 08 # . I . {| 2438.49 |-. *
Thu 8 May 08 .# I . | 2451.24 | - *
Fri 9 May 08 #. I . | 2445.52 | .- *
Mon 12 May 08 . | #. }| 2488.49 | - *
Tue 13 May 08 . |# . | 2495.12 | - *
Wed 14 May 08 . |# . | 2496.70 |-. *
Thu 15 May 08 . | #. | 2533.73 + . *
Fri 16 May 08 . # . | 2528.85 |+. *
Mon 19 May 08 . #| . | 2516.09 + . *
Tue 20 May 08 #. I . | 2492.26 |-. *
Wed 21 May 08 # . I . {| 2448.27 | - *
Thu 22 May 08 . & . | 2464.58 | - *
Fri 23 May 08 # . I . | 2444.67 | . - *
Tue 27 May 08 . I #. | 2481.24 | .- *
Wed 28 May 08 . #I . | 2486.70 | - *
Thu 29 May 08 . | #. }| 2508.32 |-. *
Fri 30 May 08 . | #. | 2522.66 |-. *
Mon 2 Jun 08 #. I . {| 2491.53 + . *
Tue 3 Jun 08 # I . | 2480.48 |-. *
Wed 4 Jun 08 . I# . | 2503.14 |-. *
Thu 5 Jun 08 . | .# }| 2549.94 + . *
Fri 6 Jun 08 # . I . {| 2474.56 | - *
Mon 9 Jun 08 # . I . | 2459.46 | - *
Tue 10 Jun 08 # . I . | 2448.94 | .- *
Wed 11 Jun 08 # . I . | 2394.01 | . - *
Thu 12 Jun 08 # I . | 2404.35 @| . - *
Fri 13 Jun 08 . & . | 2454.50 | . - *
Mon 16 Jun 08 . I# . | 2474.78 | . - *
Tue 17 Jun 08 #. I . | 2457.73 | .- *
Wed 18 Jun 08 # . I . | 2429.71 | .- *
Thu 19 Jun 08 . #I . | 2462.06 | .- *
Fri 20 Jun 08 # . I . | 2406.09 | . - *
Mon 23 Jun 08 # . I . | 2385.74 @| . - *
Tue 24 Jun 08 # . I . | 2368.28 @| . - *
Wed 25 Jun 08 . #I . | 2401.26 | . - *
Thu 26 Jun 08 # . I . | 2321.37 @| . - *
Fri 27 Jun 08 # . I . | 2315.63 @| . - *
Mon 30 Jun 08 # . I . | 2292.98 @| . - *
Tue 1 Jul 08 #. I . | 2304.97 @| . - *
Wed 2 Jul 08 # . I . | 2251.46 @| . - *
Thu 3 Jul 08 # . I . | 2245.38 @| . - *
Mon 7 Jul 08 #. I . | 2243.32 @| . - *
Tue 8 Jul 08 .# I . | 2294.44 | . - *
Wed 9 Jul 08 # . I . | 2234.89 @| . - *
Thu 10 Jul 08 # I . | 2257.85 | . - *
Fri 11 Jul 08 # . I . | 2239.08 | . - *
Mon 14 Jul 08 # . I . | 2212.87 @| . - *
Tue 15 Jul 08 #. I . | 2215.71 @| . - *
Wed 16 Jul 08 . & . | 2284.85 | . - *
Thu 17 Jul 08 . I# . | 2312.30 | . - *
Fri 18 Jul 08 .# I . | 2282.78 | .- *
Mon 21 Jul 08 . #I . | 2279.53 | - *
Tue 22 Jul 08 . I# . | 2303.96 |-. *
Wed 23 Jul 08 . | #. | 2325.88 + . *
Thu 24 Jul 08 # . I . | 2280.11 |-. *
Fri 25 Jul 08 . I# . | 2310.53 |-. *
Mon 28 Jul 08 # . I . | 2264.22 | - *
Tue 29 Jul 08 . I# . | 2319.62 | - *
Wed 30 Jul 08 . # . | 2329.72 | - *
Thu 31 Jul 08 .# | . | 2325.55 | - *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline
lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces:NEXT ISSUE - should appear in September 2008.