The Contrarian's View s published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. My own material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source; quotes from other people are subject to fair-use copyright restrictions. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, open URL http://onashi.org. Former paid subscribers to the printed version are now receiving LIFETIME subscriptions, and subscriptions to the printed version are no longer being accepted. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! ISSN 1536-4429 Phone: (508) 757-2881
The Marlin Company 14th Annual Attitudes in the American Workplace Poll reports the following results on June 24. [From the press release - /Nick]
More than one third (41%) of US workers are cutting back on utilities, nearly half have reduced food purchases (48.5%) and a large percentage are buying less clothing.
The national survey of US workers, conducted May 12-14, 2008, also found that younger workers (between the ages of 18 to 29) are being hit the hardest by the economy and are the most desperate about their economic future. More than one third (34.3%) of young American workers say their financial situation has caused them to "feel hopelessness or despair about their economic future." That compares with 28.8% of workers age 30 to 49, 23.5% of workers 50-64 and 17.9% of workers 65 or older.
Nearly a third (31.4%) of workers report being occasionally kept awake at night because they worry they will not meet housing payments, credit cards, or other personal expenses, 36.8% of whom were between the ages of 18 and 29.
And nearly one fourth (23.4%) of US workers say their financial situation has distracted them on the job, with the most distracted being young workers, age 18 to 29 (36.8%)....
This year's poll clearly illustrates exactly how damaging the current state of the US economy is to its workers. In particular, with gas prices topping $4 a gallon this summer, more than a quarter of workers (25.7%) are already choosing alternatives to driving into work - such as carpooling or public transportation. 35.9% were between the ages of 18 and 29, with more females (32%) than males (23.1%) conserving....
There is a secular attitude change happening right now. Boomers close to retirement are now (finally) scared to death as the equity in their houses has been vaporized. School-age children are seeing homes foreclosed, and families destroyed over debt. The American consumer, who nearly everyone thinks will be back as soon as the economy picks up are mistaken.
Secular shifts like these come once in a lifetime. Sadly it's too late for many cash-strapped boomers counting on equity in their houses for retirement.
The lessons of their great grandfathers who lived in the great depression era were forgotten. Over time, everyone learned to ignore the dangers of debt, risk, and leverage. Belief in the Fed and the government to bail out any problem are ingrained. Bank failures are distant memories.
Anyone and everyone who wanted credit got it, and on the easiest of terms: subprime, pay option ARMs, reckless leverage, and covenant lite debt and toggle bonds that allowed debt to be paid back with more debt. That's what it takes to hit a peak.
Peak credit has been reached. That final wave of consumer recklessness created the exact conditions required for its own destruction. The housing bubble orgy was the last hurrah. It is not coming back and there will be no bigger bubble to replace it. Consumers and banks have both been burnt, and attitudes have changed.
It took nearly 80 years for people to get as reckless as they did in 1929. 80 years! Few are still alive that went through the great depression. No one listened to them. That is the nature of the game. The odds of a significant bout of inflation now are about the same as they were in 1929. Next to none.
Children whose parents are being destroyed by debt now, will keep those memories for a long time.
....Right now, China, India, Brazil and other countries are on a different credit cycle than the US. Growth in China is providing huge strength in the commodities sector. In addition, horrid economic policies in the US are weakening the dollar.
Those two factors are causing those who don't know
what inflation is to scream inflation or stagflation.
The real wackos are screaming hyperinflation. They
are all mistaken. We are in deflation now. Most do
not see it because they do not know what it is.
Far from having been stabilized, the global banking system is on life support, kept alive by extensive government funding while it is being restructured; capital injections are being arranged for failing institutions, steps are being taken to keep the book values of worthless securities from plunging to zero, while the banks are being forced to write down the values of their assets. This downsizing is already traumatic, but it has really only begun, because the reason for the existence of much of the banking system has disappeared. With the collapse of the securities bubble, the markets in which the banks played are gone. The casino has closed, and the gamblers have been left out in the cold. When the system dies, so do the players.... Either the U.S. government steps in and asserts its sovereignty to put the financial system through bankruptcy, or the financier oligarchy will put the government through bankruptcy. If the former, we can quickly begin rebuilding our nation and the world; if the latter, we will soon have a much more sensuous understanding of how the Nazis came to power in Germany. - John Hoefle
Unless derivatives contracts are collateralized or guaranteed, their ultimate value depends on the creditworthiness of the counterparties. In the meantime, though, before a contract is settled, the counterparties record profits and losses - often huge in amount - in their current earnings statements without so much as a penny changing hands. The range of derivatives contracts is limited only by the imagination of man (or sometimes, so it seems, madmen). - Warren Buffett
There is no breathing room for the box Bernanke is in. Several Fed governors are in open revolt calling for higher rates, and others are openly questioning the Term Auction Facility (TAF), and Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). US consumers are getting smoked by rising prices, banks are getting smoked by falling margins, rising defaults, and the need to raise capital. Housing will be further smoked if Bernanke is forced to raise rates and the dollar may be further smoked if he does not. Economic Checkmate! - Mike "Mish" Shedlock
In securities law there exists a provision known as right of rescission which enables would-be purchasers of securities to terminate or 'back out' of a transaction - prior to closing - if they have been materially misled regarding the circumstances of a given transaction: ...."Defrauded purchasers may rescind fraudulent sales by national banks of their own capital stock." Now, let's take a look at what transpired in the world of Lehman stock from the time they announced their financing last Monday until Thursday when the deal closed: ....Ladies and gentlemen, the "SACKING of a CEO and CFO" certainly qualifies as an "undisclosed material fact[s]." Lehman's stock price had fallen 6.78 per share [23%] on the back of these new revelations/disclosures and somehow whoever these new WOULD-BE investors were - did not seem to care, sought no relief, and implausibly had no interest in "levering" their position to their advantage on a 4+ billion common stock transaction? Capitalism DOES NOT work this way. This simply DOES NOT HAPPEN in the real world. This Lehman financing was categorically a "bail out." It REEKS of being another pre-arranged / rigged Federal Reserve hand-out; the practice of crony capitalism - starvation and restricted credit for the masses and open spigots at the almighty fiat trough for connected, privileged insiders. - Rob Kirby
Many households have access to very little financial insight. In most cases, the only financial professionals they come into contact with are trying to sell them something, whether it's a mortgage or a stock. Independent financial advisers, who provide more-comprehensive advice, have typically been available only to the relatively wealthy. The questions most people need answered are elementary: How risky is this investment? Have prices ever gone up this fast for this long before? Can I afford this loan if interest rates rise? But they're not getting straight answers to these questions. - Robert J. Shiller
No one should be fooled by all this talk of a government-led effort that will finally wean us from our dependence on foreign oil, rid the planet of its environmental woes, and supercharge the economy in the process. Instead, it's simply a recipe for more bureaucracy and higher inflation. Have we all forgotten how the "Guns and Butter" of the 1960s led to the stagflation of the 1970s? Our politicians are banking on it. - John Browne
The way the OPEC quotas are assigned, the bigger the reserves a member state reports, the more production the member is allowed to sell. Which is why, since the upward reserve adjustments of the late 1980s - made in anticipation of the revision to the OPEC quota system - there have been virtually no reserve declines reported by OPEC members. It's as if a magic oil genie resides under the ground, providing oil in unlimited quantities with a twitch of the nose or a nod of the head over crossed arms. Put more directly, the current reserves are a fantasy, and the ability of OPEC to actually raise production is greatly constrained. - David Galland
I have not been warning you about the developments in Pakistan for two years based on imagination. My sources are people who know and have yet to be wrong. Do you remember the spin when Musharraf was politically unseated? The spin that day was that it was a true exercise of Democracy, and positive to Western interests. That will go down in the history of spin as world-class stupid. The end of Musharraf will compete in the annals of history with the disposition of the Shah of Iran. - Jim Sinclair
The media have been crucial to Barack Obama's whole candidacy. His only achievements of national
significance in his entire career have been media achievements and rhetorical achievements. Perhaps his
greatest achievement has been running as a candidate with an image wholly incompatible with what he has
actually been doing for decades. This man who is now supposedly going to "unite" us has for years worked
hand in glove, and contributed both his own money and the taxpayers' money, to people who have sought to
divide us in the most crude demagogic ways. With all his expressed concern about the war in Iraq, he has not
set foot in Iraq for more than two years - including the very years when progress has been made against the
terrorists there. You don't need to know the facts when you have cocky ignorance and the media behind you. -
Thomas Sowell
But, he said anxiously, Hulbert (meaning Mark Hulbert) had my performance near the top (of all investment letters, for presumably some recent short period of time). I told him that I wasn't even aware that Mark Hulbert was tracking my performance at all.... was he referring to a book that's now more than a decade old? No, he said, this is current.
Mark Hulbert has been receiving The Contrarian's View gratis since issue #1 (July 1986), as I am a firm believer in impartially tracking the true performance of investment gurus, to bring back to Earth some of their hyperinflated claims. I presume the current reference for performance is to the Inheritance portfolio, which has done reasonably well because of its heavy weighting in the energy sector. However, this portfolio is not a retirement building portfolio (which is most people's interest); it is an income-generating portfolio, with a current yield of around 8%. My wife and I supplement our retirement income with the dividends.
I'm not sure how Mark tracks the performance of a portfolio where money is continually withdrawn. If he assumes that, instead of being withdrawn, the dividends are plowed back into additional shares of the income-generating stock (like a DRIP), then I suspect the performance over the past two years would look pretty good.... up probably about 45%.
However, I am completely aware that the Inheritance portfolio owes its success largely to the soaring price of oil (and to a lesser extent, gold). "Peak Oil" is probably real.... demand for oil continues to increase as development in Asia proceeds, most of the world's major oil fields are in decline, Arabian OPEC countries are probably overestimating their reserves, and new oil can be drilled and processed only at much higher expense than the oil that's coming out of the mature and declining fields. Yes, there is a speculative component to the oil market as investors flee their inflating paper currencies for something tangible, and a reverse in psychology could cause a temporary setback in the oil price. But the long-term trend of the price of oil is up.... particularly when measured in rubbery U.S. dollars. A bit of froth in the price of oil, yes; a bubble? No, not yet.... although that could happen if the commodities markets continue to be the only success story around for another six months or a year.... then all the fools will rush in. (A serious effort by the Federal Reserve to stanch the declining purchasing power of the dollar would depress the price of oil. But I don't see that happening with Helicopter Ben at the helm, because it doesn't fit his foolish academic theory of always being able to print enough money to generate "positive" inflation [rising prices].)
The high price of oil is a depressant on the economy and the stock market, as our national wealth is steadily shipped overseas to people who don't like us very much. In my opinion it, plus the ongoing low level credit crunch, is responsible for stocks revisiting their January and March lows in June, which I did not expect. So, I bought a little more.... and pressures are building for an enormous countertrend rally which I expect will carry stocks higher to about election time, before the bear market reasserts itself in late 2008 and/or 2009.
I currently give odds for a systemic collapse (by
which I mean a near-total freezup of bank lending, a
global stock-market collapse [30+ percent] and the
onset of a true depression) at about 15%, and I
expect these odds not to change much until the fall.
A. "Inheritance" - real (normalized) "dividend and interest distribution" portfolio:
SUMMARY - "Inheritance":
Original cost: $100,000.00 (normalized)
Present value: $128,699.71 (see below)
Increase: $28,699.71 [+28.70%]
COMMENT on "Inheritance": As I mentioned in the last issue, I did sell my Wells Fargo stock; and in mid-June, I closed my "oil hedge" by selling the Proshares Ultrashort Oil & Gas and repurchasing Harvest Energy (sadly, not at a price lower than at which I had previously sold it). This turned out to be imperfect portfolio insurance at best.... even less perfect after I ended the strategy (oil continued to soar while the Canadian energy trusts corrected). The correction in the price of oil into the low 120s was very brief.... a much shorter period than I had expected.
Also during the month, I added to my positions in U.S. Gold, Manas Petroleum and Felcor, and bought some shares of Rubicon Minerals, which is another way to speculate on the eventual success of Rob McEwen, with a different mix of minerals (primarily gold) in a different collection of mines.
I also bought shares of Southwest Water after they had become extremely depressed and actually sported a reasonable dividend for a growing water company. Of course, there is the usual recent change of management, following an acquisition binge under the direction of the previous CEO, and investors have become disappointed at the slow progress in realizing efficiencies of scale by consolidating the acquisitions. But this will happen eventually, and I expect dividend growth to resume and continue. (The current dividend appears to be perfectly safe.)
The portfolio cost (normalized) is $119,819.32 with $13,792.56 currently in cash or near-cash.
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $10,699.00
Present value: $22,484.18
Increase: $11,785.18 [+110.15%]
COMMENT on "PIG": There is no change from the last issue.
C. Roth IRAs - real portfolio:
SUMMARY - Roth IRAs:
Original cost: $30,466.19
Present value: $42,952.86
Increase: $12,486.67 [+40.99%]
COMMENT on Roth IRAs: Gosh, I just can't seem to stay away from those banks! New to the portfolio.... as a diversification away from energy.... are shares of Marshall & Ilsley, a midwestern regional bank which has made some of the same stupid mistakes as bigger regional banks, particularly in construction loans.... but just not of the same magnitude.... and it appears to me that it has set aside sufficient reserves to cover its mistakes - unlike most of its peers, which appear to me to be, mostly, technically insolvent. (Even Wells Fargo is a question mark.) MI even increased its dividend this spring! Of course, management could be overwhelmed by a systemic failure it does not foresee; but if that doesn't happen, then MI is just being dragged down with its inferior peers and should recover when the storm has passed.
D. TIAA/CREF 403(b) and (non-Roth) IRA retirement plans: My TIAA-CREF and Fidelity non-individual-stocks retirement investments, both the part from which I am making monthly withdrawals and the parts that are "resting", are invested as follows: TIAA traditional, 80.92%; money-markets, 0.01%; CREF Global Equities, 4.06%; CREF Growth, 4.03%; CREF Equity Index, 3.94%; TIAA real estate, 1.70%; MLPs, 4.91%; TIAA-CREF High-Yield II, 0.43%.
TIAA-CREF values, 30Jun2008: stock, 232.93; equity-index, 88.45; MM, 25.23; bond, 84.59; inflation-indexed bond, 54.00; real estate, 314.42; TIAA current yield in SRA, about 4.8%. COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend": We are currently on a SELL signal of June 10, 2008.
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Wed 2 Jan 08 # . I . |13043.96 | . - *
Thu 3 Jan 08 #. I . |13056.72 | . - *
Fri 4 Jan 08 # . I . |12800.18 @|~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 7 Jan 08 #. I . |12827.49 @| . - *
Tue 8 Jan 08 # . I . |12589.07 @| . - *
Wed 9 Jan 08 # I . |12735.31 @| . - *
Thu 10 Jan 08 . & . |12853.09 | . - *
Fri 11 Jan 08 # . I . |12606.30 | . - *
Mon 14 Jan 08 . I# . |12778.15 | .- *
Tue 15 Jan 08 # . I . |12501.11 | .- *
Wed 16 Jan 08 #. I . |12466.16 |~.~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 17 Jan 08 # . I . |12159.21 | . -*
Fri 18 Jan 08 # . I . |12099.30 @|~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 22 Jan 08 # . I . |11971.19 @| . - *
Wed 23 Jan 08 .# I . |12270.17 @| . - *
Thu 24 Jan 08 . #I . |12378.61 | . - *
Fri 25 Jan 08 #. I . |12207.17 | . - *
Mon 28 Jan 08 . | #. |12383.89 | - *
Tue 29 Jan 08 . | # |12480.30 |-. *
Wed 30 Jan 08 . #| . |12442.83 |-. *
Thu 31 Jan 08 . | #. }|12650.36 + . *
Fri 1 Feb 08 . | . # |12743.19 |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 4 Feb 08 . |# . |12635.16 | + *
Tue 5 Feb 08 # . | . [|12265.13 +~.*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 6 Feb 08 # . I . {|12200.10 |-. *
Thu 7 Feb 08 .# | . |12247.00 | - *
Fri 8 Feb 08 # | . |12182.13 | .- *
Mon 11 Feb 08 . #| . |12240.01 | . - *
Tue 12 Feb 08 . | #. |12373.41 | - *
Wed 13 Feb 08 . | #. }|12552.24 |-. *
Thu 14 Feb 08 #. I . {|12376.98 |-. *
Fri 15 Feb 08 #. I . |12348.21 |-. *
Tue 19 Feb 08 . I# . |12337.22 |-. *
Wed 20 Feb 08 . | #. |12427.26 |-. *
Thu 21 Feb 08 # I . |12284.30 | - *
Fri 22 Feb 08 . #I . |12381.02 |-. *
Mon 25 Feb 08 . | . # }|12570.22 + . *
Tue 26 Feb 08 . | . # |12684.92 |+. *
Wed 27 Feb 08 . | #. |12694.28 |+. *
Thu 28 Feb 08 .# | . |12582.18 |+. *
Fri 29 Feb 08 # . I . {|12266.39 + . *
Mon 3 Mar 08 #. I . |12258.90 | - *
Tue 4 Mar 08 # . I . |12213.80 | . - *
Wed 5 Mar 08 . #I . |12254.99 | . - *
Thu 6 Mar 08 # . I . |12040.39 @| . - *
Fri 7 Mar 08 # . I . |11893.69 @|~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 10 Mar 08 # . I . |11740.15 @| . - *
Tue 11 Mar 08 . & . |12156.81 | . - *
Wed 12 Mar 08 #. I . |12360.58 @| . - *
Thu 13 Mar 08 .# I . |12145.74 | . - *
Fri 14 Mar 08 # . I . |11951.09 | . - *
Mon 17 Mar 08 # . I . |11972.25 | . - *
Tue 18 Mar 08 . I# . |12392.66 | . - *
Wed 19 Mar 08 # . I . |12099.66 | . - *
Thu 20 Mar 08 . #I . |12361.32 | . - *
Mon 24 Mar 08 . I .# |12548.64 |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 25 Mar 08 . | #. |12532.60 + . *
Wed 26 Mar 08 .# | . |12422.86 |-. *
Thu 27 Mar 08 # I . |12302.46 + . *
Fri 28 Mar 08 # . I . |12216.40 |-. *
Mon 31 Mar 08 . #I . |12262.89 | - *
Tue 1 Apr 08 . | . # |12654.36 | - *
Wed 2 Apr 08 . | # |12605.83 |-. *
Thu 3 Apr 08 . | .# }|12626.03 |+. *
Fri 4 Apr 08 . | .# |12609.42 | .+ *
Mon 7 Apr 08 . #| . |12612.43 | .+ *
Tue 8 Apr 08 . | . # |12576.44 | .+ *
Wed 9 Apr 08 . | # |12527.26 | .+ *
Thu 10 Apr 08 . | .# |12581.98 | .+ *
Fri 11 Apr 08 . | .# |12325.42 | .+ *
Mon 14 Apr 08 # | . |12302.06 | + *
Tue 15 Apr 08 . |# . |12362.47 |+. *
Wed 16 Apr 08 . | . # |12619.27 | + *
Thu 17 Apr 08 . | # |12620.49 | + *
Fri 18 Apr 08 . | . # |12849.36 | .+ *
Mon 21 Apr 08 . | # |12825.02 | . + *
Tue 22 Apr 08 . #| . |12720.23 | .+ *
Wed 23 Apr 08 . #| . |12673.22 | + *
Thu 24 Apr 08 . | #. |12848.95 | + *
Fri 25 Apr 08 . | .# |12891.86 |+. *
Mon 28 Apr 08 . | # |12871.75 |+. *
Tue 29 Apr 08 . #| . |12831.94 |+. *
Wed 30 Apr 08 . |# . |12820.13 |+. *
Thu 1 May 08 . | . # |13010.00 | + *
Fri 2 May 08 . | .# |13058.20 |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mo n 5 May 08 . |# . |12969.54 | + *
Tu e 6 May 08 . | . # |13020.83 | .+ *
We d 7 May 08 . #| . |12814.35 | + *
Thu 8 May 08 . |# . |12866.78 | + *
Fri 9 May 08 . # . |12745.88 |+. *
Mon 12 May 08 . | .# |12876.31 |+. *
Tue 13 May 08 . | # |12832.18 |+. *
Wed 14 May 08 . | . # |12898.38 | + *
Thu 15 May 08 . | . # |12992.66 | .+ *
Fri 16 May 08 . | .# |12986.80 | . + *
Mon 19 May 08 . | .# |13028.16 | . + *
Tue 20 May 08 . # . |12828.68 | .+ *
Wed 21 May 08 . #| . |12601.19 |~+~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 May 08 . # . |12625.62 |+. *
Fri 23 May 08 # . I . |12479.63 |-. *
Tue 27 May 08 . # . |12548.35 | - *
Wed 28 May 08 . # . |12594.03 | - *
Thu 29 May 08 . | #. |12646.22 |-. *
Fri 30 May 08 . | #. |12638.32 |-. *
Mon 2 Jun 08 # | . |12503.82 + . *
Tue 3 Jun 08 . & . |12402.85 + . *
Wed 4 Jun 08 . #I . |12390.48 + . *
Thu 5 Jun 08 . | . # |12604.45 + . *
Fri 6 Jun 08 #. I . |12209.81 |-.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 9 Jun 08 # I . |12280.32 |-. *
Tue 10 Jun 08 #. I . {|12289.76 | - *
Wed 11 Jun 08 # . I . |12083.77 | .- *
Thu 12 Jun 08 # I . |12141.58 | . - *
Fri 13 Jun 08 . & . |12307.35 | . - *
Mon 16 Jun 08 . I# . |12269.08 | .- *
Tue 17 Jun 08 . #I . |12160.30 | - *
Wed 18 Jun 08 # . I . |12029.06 | - *
Thu 19 Jun 08 . #I . |12063.09 | - *
Fri 20 Jun 08 # . I . |11842.69 |~.-~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 23 Jun 08 # . I . |11842.36 | . - *
Tue 24 Jun 08 #. I . |11807.43 | . - *
Wed 25 Jun 08 . #I . |11811.83 | . - *
Thu 26 Jun 08 # . I . |11453.42 @|~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 27 Jun 08 # . I . |11346.51 | . - *
Mon 30 Jun 08 #. I . |11350.01 | . - *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": We're on a SELL signal of June 6, 2008.
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND _____________________________
Wed 2 Jan 08 # . I . | 2609.63 | . - *
Thu 3 Jan 08 #. I . | 2602.68 @| . - *
Fri 4 Jan 08 # . I . | 2504.65 @| . - *
Mon 7 Jan 08 # . I . | 2499.46 @| . - *
Tue 8 Jan 08 # . I . | 2440.51 @| . - *
Wed 9 Jan 08 #. I . | 2474.55 @| . - *
Thu 10 Jan 08 .# I . | 2488.52 @| . - *
Fri 11 Jan 08 # . I . | 2439.94 @| . - *
Mon 14 Jan 08 .# I . | 2478.30 | . - *
Tue 15 Jan 08 # . I . | 2417.59 | . - *
Wed 16 Jan 08 # . I . | 2394.59 | . - *
Thu 17 Jan 08 # . I . | 2346.90 @| . - *
Fri 18 Jan 08 # . I . | 2340.02 @| . - *
Tue 22 Jan 08 # . I . | 2292.27 @| . - *
Wed 23 Jan 08 #. I . | 2316.41 @| . - *
Thu 24 Jan 08 . #I . | 2360.92 @| . - *
Fri 25 Jan 08 # . I . | 2326.20 | . - *
Mon 28 Jan 08 . #I . | 2349.91 | . - *
Tue 29 Jan 08 .# I . | 2358.06 | .- *
Wed 30 Jan 08 # . I . | 2349.00 | .- *
Thu 31 Jan 08 . #I . | 2389.86 | .- *
Fri 1 Feb 08 . |# . | 2413.36 | - *
Mon 4 Feb 08 # I . | 2382.85 | - *
Tue 5 Feb 08 # . I . | 2309.57 | . - *
Wed 6 Feb 08 # . I . | 2278.75 | . - *
Thu 7 Feb 08 # I . | 2293.03 | . - *
Fri 8 Feb 08 .# I . | 2304.85 | . - *
Mon 11 Feb 08 .# I . | 2320.06 | . - *
Tue 12 Feb 08 # I . | 2320.04 | . - *
Wed 13 Feb 08 . |# . | 2373.93 | - *
Thu 14 Feb 08 # . I . | 2332.54 | .- *
Fri 15 Feb 08 # . I . | 2321.80 | . - *
Tue 19 Feb 08 # . I . | 2306.20 | . - *
Wed 20 Feb 08 # I . | 2327.10 | . - *
Thu 21 Feb 08 . #I . | 2299.78 | . - *
Fri 22 Feb 08 #. I . | 2305.35 | . - *
Mon 25 Feb 08 . & . | 2327.48 | .- *
Tue 26 Feb 08 . & . | 2344.99 | - *
Wed 27 Feb 08 . #I . | 2353.78 | - *
Thu 28 Feb 08 # . I . | 2331.57 | .- *
Fri 29 Feb 08 # . I . | 2271.48 | . - *
Mon 3 Mar 08 # . I . | 2258.60 | . - *
Tue 4 Mar 08 # . I . | 2260.28 @| . - *
Wed 5 Mar 08 .# I . | 2272.81 @| . - *
Thu 6 Mar 08 # . I . | 2220.50 @| . - *
Fri 7 Mar 08 # . I . | 2212.49 @| . - *
Mon 10 Mar 08 # . I . | 2169.34 @| . -*
Tue 11 Mar 08 . #I . | 2255.76 | . - *
Wed 12 Mar 08 # . I . | 2243.87 @| . - *
Thu 13 Mar 08 # I . | 2263.61 | . - *
Fri 14 Mar 08 # . I . | 2212.49 @| . - *
Mon 17 Mar 08 # . I . | 2177.01 @| . - *
Tue 18 Mar 08 . & . | 2268.26 | . - *
Wed 19 Mar 08 # . I . | 2209.96 @| . - *
Thu 20 Mar 08 . #I . | 2258.11 | . - *
Mon 24 Mar 08 . I #. | 2326.75 | .- *
Tue 25 Mar 08 . #I . | 2341.05 | - *
Wed 26 Mar 08 # . I . | 2324.36 | .- *
Thu 27 Mar 08 # . I . | 2280.83 | .- *
Fri 28 Mar 08 # . I . | 2261.18 | . - *
Mon 31 Mar 08 .# I . | 2279.10 | . - *
Tue 1 Apr 08 . | #. | 2362.75 | . - *
Wed 2 Apr 08 .# | . | 2361 40 | .- *
Thu 3 Apr 08 . #| . | 2363.30 | - *
Fri 4 Apr 08 . |# . | 2370.98 |-. *
Mon 7 Apr 08 .# | . | 2279.10 |-. *
Tue 8 Apr 08 . | #. | 2362.75 |-. *
Wed 9 Apr 08 .# | . | 2361.40 |-. *
Thu 10 Apr 08 . #| . | 2363.30 |-. *
Fri 11 Apr 08 . |# . | 2370.98 |-. *
Mon 14 Apr 08 # . | . | 2275.82 | - *
Tue 15 Apr 08 # | . | 2286.04 | .- *
Wed 16 Apr 08 . | #. }| 2350.11 | - *
Thu 17 Apr 08 #. | . [| 2341.83 | - *
Fri 18 Apr 08 . | # ]| 2402.97 | - *
Mon 21 Apr 08 . #| . | 2408.04 |-. *
Tue 22 Apr 08 # . | . [| 2376.94 | - *
Wed 23 Apr 08 . #| . | 2405.21 | - *
Thu 24 Apr 08 . #| . ]| 2428.92 | - *
Fri 25 Apr 08 .# | . | 2422.93 | .- *
Mon 28 Apr 08 . # . | 2424.40 | - *
Tue 29 Apr 08 . #| . | 2426.10 |-. *
Wed 30 Apr 08 # | . | 2412.80 | - *
Thu 1 May 08 . | # | 2480.71 |-. *
Fri 2 May 08 . # . | 2476.99 |-. *
Mon 5 May 08 #. | . | 2464.12 |-. *
Tue 6 May 08 . |# . | 2483.31 |-. *
Wed 7 May 08 # . I . {| 2438.49 |-. *
Thu 8 May 08 .# I . | 2451.24 | - *
Fri 9 May 08 #. I . | 2445.52 | .- *
Mon 12 May 08 . | #. }| 2488.49 | - *
Tue 13 May 08 . |# . | 2495.12 | - *
Wed 14 May 08 . |# . | 2496.70 |-. *
Thu 15 May 08 . | #. | 2533.73 + . *
Fri 16 May 08 . # . | 2528.85 |+. *
Mon 19 May 08 . #| . | 2516.09 + . *
Tue 20 May 08 #. I . | 2492.26 |-. *
Wed 21 May 08 # . I . {| 2448.27 | - *
Thu 22 May 08 . & . | 2464.58 | - *
Fri 23 May 08 # . I . | 2444.67 | . - *
Tue 27 May 08 . I #. | 2481.24 | .- *
Wed 28 May 08 . #I . | 2486.70 | - *
Thu 29 May 08 . | #. }| 2508.32 |-. *
Fri 30 May 08 . | #. | 2522.66 |-. *
Mon 2 Jun 08 #. I . {| 2491.53 + . *
Tue 3 Jun 08 # I . | 2480.48 |-. *
Wed 4 Jun 08 . I# . | 2503.14 |-. *
Thu 5 Jun 08 . | .# }| 2549.94 + . *
Fri 6 Jun 08 # . I . {| 2474.56 | - *
Mon 9 Jun 08 # . I . | 2459.46 | - *
Tue 10 Jun 08 # . I . | 2448.94 | .- *
Wed 11 Jun 08 # . I . | 2394.01 | . - *
Thu 12 Jun 08 # I . | 2404.35 @| . - *
Fri 13 Jun 08 . & . | 2454.50 | . - *
Mon 16 Jun 08 . I# . | 2474.78 | . - *
Tue 17 Jun 08 #. I . | 2457.73 | .- *
Wed 18 Jun 08 # . I . | 2429.71 | .- *
Thu 19 Jun 08 . #I . | 2462.06 | .- *
Fri 20 Jun 08 # . I . | 2406.09 | . - *
Mon 23 Jun 08 # . I . | 2385.74 @| . - *
Tue 24 Jun 08 # . I . | 2368.28 @| . - *
Wed 25 Jun 08 . #I . | 2401.26 | . - *
Thu 26 Jun 08 # . I . | 2321.37 @| . - *
Fri 27 Jun 08 # . I . | 2315.63 @| . - *
Mon 30 Jun 08 # . I . | 2292.98 @| . - *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline
lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces:NEXT ISSUE - should appear in July 2008.