The Contrarian's View s published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. My own material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source; quotes from other people are subject to fair-use copyright restrictions. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, open URL http://onashi.org. Former paid subscribers to the printed version are now receiving LIFETIME subscriptions, and subscriptions to the printed version are no longer being accepted. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! ISSN 1536-4429 Phone: (508) 757-2881
My intent was that the sale of our condo, plus the sale of my forest/conservation land, would add up to the price of the new home. But as you will recall, at the housing-bubble peak the differential between the value of the condo and a home was still too great, and after paying capital-gains taxes on the sale of the condo, a house was completely out of reach.
So about all we could do was wait for the housing bubble to pop, and for that differential to shrink to an affordable level.
OK, this spring.... two years later.... the bubble has popped, and it was time to try again. My Internet searching hadn't turned up any affordable "normal" sales, but there were several foreclosed homes in the area that were possibilities. So my wife and I spent about a day with our real estate broker/friend looking at empty, foreclosed homes.
Most of these were disappointments, as you might expect, since the former owners have no incentive to keep them in good condition before vacating.
One that we saw had all of the appliances removed - even the built-in gas grill had been ripped out. Another was a dirt-and-dent special. My wife spoke with a neighbor and the neighbor said that after the owners left more than ten dump-trucks-full of trash had been hauled out. A third (an estate sale, actually) had a retrofitted central air-conditioning system whose add-on ductwork consumed all of the available closet space. (What were the owners thinking?)
But there was one foreclosed house we saw that we liked, because the space works really well for our needs. My wife and I have viewed maybe 30 houses over the past three years, and there are just two that she really liked. One was the shit-brown house I described in the March 2006 issue, and the other is this one, pictured below.
The house had a pool... or perhaps more accurately, a large outdoor bathtub.
As I said, my wife really liked this house, but the bank's asking price, even for a foreclosure, was too high. But I knew how sick the real estate market really had become, and how the banks were getting more desperate to get this REO stuff off their books. So I figured the bank might entertain a lowball offer.
No such luck. From the selling broker the word came back that the bank was firm on its asking price (which had already been reduced by $20K in the past two months). So we gave up and returned to our home in Worcester, the financial backwater of America. I said to our broker friend, My problem is that I want next summer's selling price now.
In late March I was curious and e-mailed our broker friend, What happened to that house? She e-mailed back, the bank had three offers, one was accepted, and the house was due to close on April 17. A few days later my wife wondered (wistfully), what happened to the house? I told her, forget it, it closed on April 17, it's gone.
In early May I was doing my once-a-month Internet scan of central Florida real estate, and to my surprise I saw this house back on the market.... at a new, lower asking price. So, just out of curiosity, I e-mailed our broker friend, Is this house really back on the market? What happened?
She called back, the deal fell through because the buyer couldn't get financing. No surprise to me.... I can't imagine a bank financing a foreclosed home in unknown condition in today's real-estate market. But my wife and I were in a position to make a lowball all-cash offer, and our friend said, give it a try, all cash offers are very attractive to banks anxious to quickly dispose of real estate. So I calculated a price that was 19.5% below the asking price (suspecting that 20% was the cutoff point for offers that would be considered serious).
The bank (and I use the term "bank" generically - the actual owner appears to be a REO-disposition subsidiary of GMAC) countered with a price 9.5% below the listed price. I figured the bank would be willing to come down another 2% to 3%, especially with all-cash, so we offered 11.9% below the listed price, subject to home inspection, particularly for wood-eating insects and mold.... and the bank accepted!
We had 48 hours to get a signed addendum and deposit to the bank.... and we got word of the acceptance on a Saturday, and we were in Pennsylvania for the weekend. No way could we make the 48 hours the bank required, but we could get close.
When we got home Sunday night we read our e mail, which had the special addendum the bank required us to sign and return before proceeding.My wife and I both read the special addendum, which on its surface appeared to be an inconsequential piece of boilerplate, and balked. It was a document which pretty well covered the bank's ass for most any perceived problem, and shifted risk to the buyer; but the most unacceptable clause was the one which required us to accept the house with mold (if any) as is.... and this addendum overrode the contract containing our offer, which specifically stated that purchase was subject to satisfactory inspection for mold!
A quick check with our attorney on Monday morning confirmed our suspicions.... he pointed out several other gotchas in the document and said, don't sign it. The original contract to purchase that we had already signed had more-than-adequate protection for both seller and buyer, he said.
So we advised our broker fiend that we would not sign the rider but, if the bank wished to proceed on the basis of the original contract we would be happy to; let us know.
A few days passed. No response. Our broker friend called the selling broker, with whom the property was listed. He replied that the bank had accepted another all-cash offer higher than ours, and the buyer had put down a $10,000 nonrefundable deposit!
Well, more power to him or her; we certainly would never have done that. (Presumably, this buyer signed the special addendum without batting an eyelash.) I suspect that either this buyer is incredibly stupid or naïve; or is very sharp, knew exactly what he/she was doing and knew how to do a thorough home inspection personally.
Well, kiss this house goodbye. There is a currently a lot of real estate for sale in central Florida. But after meeting my wife's requirements.... garage for at least one car, public water and sewer (not septic), no gas, and a location in one of two approved small cities, the supply of possibilities in our price range is rather sharply diminished.
I'll keep looking; we still have another year to go before the market bottoms. But it's unlikely we'll try for another foreclosure. The banks are too lazy or stupid (as a friend who works with foreclosures on behalf of banks puts it) to sell their REO properties in any intelligent or flexible fashion.
Of course, this severely restricts the potential supply of buyers, which partly explains why there is such a backlog of REO properties currently on the market; the banks simply don't know how to intelligently get rid of them.
Yeah, lazy and stupid, that fits. That's why the
banks got into such trouble in the first place, because
they're lazy and stupid and bought into the bubble.
And when they screw up, the taxpayers are stuck
bailing them out, when instead they really should be
going belly-up for their lazy, stupid mistakes.
I have been tracking a particular Washington Mutual (WM) Alt-A mortgage pool for 5 months. The pool is known as WMALT 2007-OC1. It is a securitized mortgage-backed security issued in May, 2007. It is also the poster child for what's wrong with Alt-A.
....The pool is now one year old. Happy Birthday. Let's see how the pool is doing as we light one candle on the cake to celebrate.
* The original pool size was $513,969,100.
* 92.6% of this cesspool was rated AAA.
* 22.89% of the whole pool is in foreclosure or REO status after 1 year.
* 31.17% of the pool is 60 days delinquent or worse
....I do not know about this pool in particular, but in general the ratings agencies are well behind the curve with downgrades. The S&P just now appears to be figuring out what some of us have known for a long time:
1) Pools from 2006-2007 are extremely suspect in quality
2) Confidence in Alt-A pools is unwarranted
S&P is still far behind the curve given [its] Alt-A downgrades have only hit the mezzanine and equity
tranches, not the senior tranches. Many downgrades of those senior tranches are coming. The losses are going
to be staggering.
These financial companies are the most powerful constituents of the political class and masters of them. Look no further than the regulators who IGNORE their crimes against their customers. As the financial and banking industry is failing, the remedy is confiscation of wealth through one means or another. We have suffered one recession since 2000 and the current one has not yet been recognized by the powers that be. The solution in both cases and really since the mid-sixties is to lower interest rates on savings while letting the financial system keep rates high. They are punishing the virtuous behaviors of saving and investing and putting a high price on those who borrow. After 300 basis points of reductions virtually none have filtered through to the public. Credit card rates have been jacked up, home equity lines have been rescinded and people who save have been robbed of their incomes to create wider margins for the banking industry. This spread is enormous and a recipe for bank balance sheet repair, of which there is much to do. Kind of a reverse Robin Hood, they are taking from the public and the poor and transferring to their rich masters in the banking and financial systems. - Ty Andros
The Fed is years away from ever admitting a mistake, like printing too much money. Moreover, this is America. Congress will never call out for tight money. As long as the Chairman of the Fed still believes in the economic tooth fairy, rising inflation is guaranteed. Unfortunately, the outlook looks grim. Inflation causes stagnation as people can afford to buy less and less. At the same time, a weak economy only encourages the Fed to print more money that will continue to rob me of my savings, and generate even more inflation. Bernanke may have been educated at Princeton but from what we have seen, he still knows very little. And in turn, this means we all get to learn firsthand what stagflation is all about. - Richard Benson
Based on the criteria in place a quarter century ago, today's U.S. unemployment rate is somewhere between 9% and 12%; the inflation rate is as high as 7% or even 10%; economic growth since the recession of 2001 has been mediocre, despite the surge in wealth and incomes of the superrich, and we are falling back into recession. - Kevin Phillips [author, Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics & the Crisis of American Capitalism]
The McCain-Clinton gas holiday proposal is a perfect example of what energy expert Peter Schwartz of Global Business Network describes as the true American energy policy today: "Maximize demand, minimize supply and buy the rest from the people who hate us the most." This is not an energy policy. This is money laundering: We borrow money from China and ship it to Saudi Arabia and take a little cut for ourselves as it goes through our gas tanks. - Thomas L. Friedman
Our politicians damn oil as an "addiction" to be eliminated, and seek to cut--by up to 90 percent--the use of oil and other vital fossil fuels that make our standard of living possible. Congress should ask oil executives how this possible forced cut in demand affects their industry. It should ask whether they feel safe to make the billion dollar investments and decades-long plans that oil production requires when Barack Obama, a leading presidential candidate, can uncontroversially proclaim that "the country that faced down the tyranny of fascism and communism is now called to challenge the tyranny of oil." Is it a coincidence that the much-maligned speculators think oil will become even scarcer in the future, and are acting accordingly? - Alex Epstein
The Obama presidency will be like the Jimmy Carter presidency on steroids. I'm pretty sure it's Obama
because the economy will be so bad into the election that as damaged a candidate as the guy is, I don't think a
Republican could beat him. - Peter Schiff
I replied that this figure is essentially a measure of stress in the banking system. When the Fed is putting the screws to the economy by raising interest rates (to correct its preceding too-easy monetary policy), free reserves will go negative as the banks borrow from the Fed to repair their balance sheets. The fact that this is occurring now, even with short- term interest rates set low, is a sign that the banks are in deep trouble and that the credit crunch is still bubbling away under the surface; ongoing systemic failures are still likely and can crop up at any time.
Assuming we do not see another systemic incident like August 2007 or January or March 2008, I expect stock prices to modestly improve.... with emphasis on modest, on the order of a few percent.... to about election time.
I currently give odds for a systemic collapse (by
which I mean a near-total freezup of bank lending, a
global stock-market collapse [30+ percent] and the
onset of a true depression) at about 15%, and I
expect these odds not to change much until the fall.
A. "Inheritance" - real (normalized) "dividend and interest distribution" portfolio:
SUMMARY - "Inheritance":
Original cost: $100,000.00 (normalized)
Present value: $133,483.80 (see below)
Increase: $33,483.80 [+33.48%]
COMMENT on "Inheritance": I finally gave up on First Marblehead, and dumped it. It appears that the government (Sallie Mae) will pretty well subsume the student loan market, dealing directly with banks and effectively killing off the business of the private loan assemblers. That leaves First Marblehead with only its processing contracts for colleges, which isn't much.... certainly not enough for it to manage its debt load. Bankruptcy is likely.
As the price of oil started going parabolic (in the $130s per barrel), I sold my shares in Harvest Energy Trust (which had the least tax consequences) and bought shares of Proshares DUG, a double short of the DJ U.S. Oil&Gas Index, as an offsetting hedge for the correction I expected for the price of oil, into he low $120s per barrel. This is not a complete offset.... it provides only partial price protection for declines in prices of the Canadian energy trusts.... but it allows me to sleep at night. I expect to be selling DUG and repurchasing HTE (hopefully, at a lower price from which I sold it) sometime in mid- to late June.
I am also considering selling my shares of Wells Fargo, Warren Buffett notwithstanding. The main reason is that the shares are acting badly, probing their January bottom, where most of what I bought near the January and March market lows is doing better. Somebody out there knows more than I do.... Wells Fargo does have a large percentage of its loan portfolio in construction and home equity loans, and construction loans are now runnung into trouble, and in the short-sale, pre-forclosure and foreclosure home sales, the first-mortgage lender takes a hit, but the home-equity lender typically loses everything. In April, Wells Fargo extended its waiting period for writing off its loans gone sour from four to six months. I interpret this as the bank attempting to postpone the reporting of bad news that it knows is coming.... not a good sign. Eventually, Wells Fargo will be a good buy.... but not now; it appears that I was too early on this one.
The portfolio cost (normalized) is $119,276.79 with $14,047.75 currently in cash or near-cash.
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $10,699.00
Present value: $22,473.04
Increase: $11,774.04 [+110.05%]
COMMENT on "PIG": There is no change from the last issue.
C. Roth IRAs - real portfolio:
SUMMARY - Roth IRAs:
Original cost: $30,466.19
Present value: $42,928.87
Increase: $12,462.68 [+40.91%]
COMMENT on Roth IRAs: I used accumulating cash in this portfolio to purchase more shares of Harvest Energy Trust.
D. TIAA/CREF 403(b) and (non-Roth) IRA retirement plans: My TIAA-CREF and Fidelity non-individual-stocks retirement investments, both the part from which I am making monthly withdrawals and the parts that are "resting", are invested as follows: TIAA traditional, 79.57%; money-markets, 0.14%; CREF Global Equities, 4.35%; CREF Growth, 4.28%; CREF Equity Index, 4.24%; TIAA real estate, 2.16%; MLPs, 4.88%; TIAA-CREF High-Yield II, 0.38%.
TIAA-CREF values, 30May2008: stock, 253.51; equity-index, 96.43; MM, 25.20; bond, 84.61; inflation-indexed bond, 53.10; real estate, 314.22; TIAA current yield in SRA, about 4.8% COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend": We are currently on a BUY signal of April 3, 2008.
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Wed 2 Jan 08 # . I . |13043.96 | . - *
Thu 3 Jan 08 #. I . |13056.72 | . - *
Fri 4 Jan 08 # . I . |12800.18 @|~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 7 Jan 08 #. I . |12827.49 @| . - *
Tue 8 Jan 08 # . I . |12589.07 @| . - *
Wed 9 Jan 08 # I . |12735.31 @| . - *
Thu 10 Jan 08 . & . |12853.09 | . - *
Fri 11 Jan 08 # . I . |12606.30 | . - *
Mon 14 Jan 08 . I# . |12778.15 | .- *
Tue 15 Jan 08 # . I . |12501.11 | .- *
Wed 16 Jan 08 #. I . |12466.16 |~.~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 17 Jan 08 # . I . |12159.21 | . -*
Fri 18 Jan 08 # . I . |12099.30 @|~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 22 Jan 08 # . I . |11971.19 @| . - *
Wed 23 Jan 08 .# I . |12270.17 @| . - *
Thu 24 Jan 08 . #I . |12378.61 | . - *
Fri 25 Jan 08 #. I . |12207.17 | . - *
Mon 28 Jan 08 . | #. |12383.89 | - *
Tue 29 Jan 08 . | # |12480.30 |-. *
Wed 30 Jan 08 . #| . |12442.83 |-. *
Thu 31 Jan 08 . | #. }|12650.36 + . *
Fri 1 Feb 08 . | . # |12743.19 |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 4 Feb 08 . |# . |12635.16 | + *
Tue 5 Feb 08 # . | . [|12265.13 +~.*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 6 Feb 08 # . I . {|12200.10 |-. *
Thu 7 Feb 08 .# | . |12247.00 | - *
Fri 8 Feb 08 # | . |12182.13 | .- *
Mon 11 Feb 08 . #| . |12240.01 | . - *
Tue 12 Feb 08 . | #. |12373.41 | - *
Wed 13 Feb 08 . | #. }|12552.24 |-. *
Thu 14 Feb 08 #. I . {|12376.98 |-. *
Fri 15 Feb 08 #. I . |12348.21 |-. *
Tue 19 Feb 08 . I# . |12337.22 |-. *
Wed 20 Feb 08 . | #. |12427.26 |-. *
Thu 21 Feb 08 # I . |12284.30 | - *
Fri 22 Feb 08 . #I . |12381.02 |-. *
Mon 25 Feb 08 . | . # }|12570.22 + . *
Tue 26 Feb 08 . | . # |12684.92 |+. *
Wed 27 Feb 08 . | #. |12694.28 |+. *
Thu 28 Feb 08 .# | . |12582.18 |+. *
Fri 29 Feb 08 # . I . {|12266.39 + . *
Mon 3 Mar 08 #. I . |12258.90 | - *
Tue 4 Mar 08 # . I . |12213.80 | . - *
Wed 5 Mar 08 . #I . |12254.99 | . - *
Thu 6 Mar 08 # . I . |12040.39 @| . - *
Fri 7 Mar 08 # . I . |11893.69 @|~.~*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 10 Mar 08 # . I . |11740.15 @| . - *
Tue 11 Mar 08 . & . |12156.81 | . - *
Wed 12 Mar 08 #. I . |12360.58 @| . - *
Thu 13 Mar 08 .# I . |12145.74 | . - *
Fri 14 Mar 08 # . I . |11951.09 | . - *
Mon 17 Mar 08 # . I . |11972.25 | . - *
Tue 18 Mar 08 . I# . |12392.66 | . - *
Wed 19 Mar 08 # . I . |12099.66 | . - *
Thu 20 Mar 08 . #I . |12361.32 | . - *
Mon 24 Mar 08 . I .# |12548.64 |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 25 Mar 08 . | #. |12532.60 + . *
Wed 26 Mar 08 .# | . |12422.86 |-. *
Thu 27 Mar 08 # I . |12302.46 + . *
Fri 28 Mar 08 # . I . |12216.40 |-. *
Mon 31 Mar 08 . #I . |12262.89 | - *
Tue 1 Apr 08 . | . # |12654.36 | - *
Wed 2 Apr 08 . | # |12605.83 |-. *
Thu 3 Apr 08 . | .# }|12626.03 |+. *
Fri 4 Apr 08 . | .# |12609.42 | .+ *
Mon 7 Apr 08 . #| . |12612.43 | .+ *
Tue 8 Apr 08 . | . # |12576.44 | .+ *
Wed 9 Apr 08 . | # |12527.26 | .+ *
Thu 10 Apr 08 . | .# |12581.98 | .+ *
Fri 11 Apr 08 . | .# |12325.42 | .+ *
Mon 14 Apr 08 # | . |12302.06 | + *
Tue 15 Apr 08 . |# . |12362.47 |+. *
Wed 16 Apr 08 . | . # |12619.27 | + *
Thu 17 Apr 08 . | # |12620.49 | + *
Fri 18 Apr 08 . | . # |12849.36 | .+ *
Mon 21 Apr 08 . | # |12825.02 | . + *
Tue 22 Apr 08 . #| . |12720.23 | .+ *
Wed 23 Apr 08 . #| . |12673.22 | + *
Thu 24 Apr 08 . | #. |12848.95 | + *
Fri 25 Apr 08 . | .# |12891.86 |+. *
Mon 28 Apr 08 . | # |12871.75 |+. *
Tue 29 Apr 08 . #| . |12831.94 |+. *
Wed 30 Apr 08 . |# . |12820.13 |+. *
Thu 1 May 08 . | . # |13010.00 | + *
Fri 2 May 08 . | .# |13058.20 |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mo n 5 May 08 . |# . |12969.54 | + *
Tu e 6 May 08 . | . # |13020.83 | .+ *
We d 7 May 08 . #| . |12814.35 | + *
Thu 8 May 08 . |# . |12866.78 | + *
Fri 9 May 08 . # . |12745.88 |+. *
Mon 12 May 08 . | .# |12876.31 |+. *
Tue 13 May 08 . | # |12832.18 |+. *
Wed 14 May 08 . | . # |12898.38 | + *
Thu 15 May 08 . | . # |12992.66 | .+ *
Fri 16 May 08 . | .# |12986.80 | . + *
Mon 19 May 08 . | .# |13028.16 | . + *
Tue 20 May 08 . # . |12828.68 | .+ *
Wed 21 May 08 . #| . |12601.19 |~+~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 May 08 . # . |12625.62 |+. *
Fri 23 May 08 # . I . |12479.63 |-. *
Tue 27 May 08 . # . |12548.35 | - *
Wed 28 May 08 . # . |12594.03 | - *
Thu 29 May 08 . | #. |12646.22 |-. *
Fri 30 May 08 . | #. |12638.32 |-. *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": We're on a BUY signal of May 29, 2008.
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND _____________________________
Wed 2 Jan 08 # . I . | 2609.63 | . - *
Thu 3 Jan 08 #. I . | 2602.68 @| . - *
Fri 4 Jan 08 # . I . | 2504.65 @| . - *
Mon 7 Jan 08 # . I . | 2499.46 @| . - *
Tue 8 Jan 08 # . I . | 2440.51 @| . - *
Wed 9 Jan 08 #. I . | 2474.55 @| . - *
Thu 10 Jan 08 .# I . | 2488.52 @| . - *
Fri 11 Jan 08 # . I . | 2439.94 @| . - *
Mon 14 Jan 08 .# I . | 2478.30 | . - *
Tue 15 Jan 08 # . I . | 2417.59 | . - *
Wed 16 Jan 08 # . I . | 2394.59 | . - *
Thu 17 Jan 08 # . I . | 2346.90 @| . - *
Fri 18 Jan 08 # . I . | 2340.02 @| . - *
Tue 22 Jan 08 # . I . | 2292.27 @| . - *
Wed 23 Jan 08 #. I . | 2316.41 @| . - *
Thu 24 Jan 08 . #I . | 2360.92 @| . - *
Fri 25 Jan 08 # . I . | 2326.20 | . - *
Mon 28 Jan 08 . #I . | 2349.91 | . - *
Tue 29 Jan 08 .# I . | 2358.06 | .- *
Wed 30 Jan 08 # . I . | 2349.00 | .- *
Thu 31 Jan 08 . #I . | 2389.86 | .- *
Fri 1 Feb 08 . |# . | 2413.36 | - *
Mon 4 Feb 08 # I . | 2382.85 | - *
Tue 5 Feb 08 # . I . | 2309.57 | . - *
Wed 6 Feb 08 # . I . | 2278.75 | . - *
Thu 7 Feb 08 # I . | 2293.03 | . - *
Fri 8 Feb 08 .# I . | 2304.85 | . - *
Mon 11 Feb 08 .# I . | 2320.06 | . - *
Tue 12 Feb 08 # I . | 2320.04 | . - *
Wed 13 Feb 08 . |# . | 2373.93 | - *
Thu 14 Feb 08 # . I . | 2332.54 | .- *
Fri 15 Feb 08 # . I . | 2321.80 | . - *
Tue 19 Feb 08 # . I . | 2306.20 | . - *
Wed 20 Feb 08 # I . | 2327.10 | . - *
Thu 21 Feb 08 . #I . | 2299.78 | . - *
Fri 22 Feb 08 #. I . | 2305.35 | . - *
Mon 25 Feb 08 . & . | 2327.48 | .- *
Tue 26 Feb 08 . & . | 2344.99 | - *
Wed 27 Feb 08 . #I . | 2353.78 | - *
Thu 28 Feb 08 # . I . | 2331.57 | .- *
Fri 29 Feb 08 # . I . | 2271.48 | . - *
Mon 3 Mar 08 # . I . | 2258.60 | . - *
Tue 4 Mar 08 # . I . | 2260.28 @| . - *
Wed 5 Mar 08 .# I . | 2272.81 @| . - *
Thu 6 Mar 08 # . I . | 2220.50 @| . - *
Fri 7 Mar 08 # . I . | 2212.49 @| . - *
Mon 10 Mar 08 # . I . | 2169.34 @| . -*
Tue 11 Mar 08 . #I . | 2255.76 | . - *
Wed 12 Mar 08 # . I . | 2243.87 @| . - *
Thu 13 Mar 08 # I . | 2263.61 | . - *
Fri 14 Mar 08 # . I . | 2212.49 @| . - *
Mon 17 Mar 08 # . I . | 2177.01 @| . - *
Tue 18 Mar 08 . & . | 2268.26 | . - *
Wed 19 Mar 08 # . I . | 2209.96 @| . - *
Thu 20 Mar 08 . #I . | 2258.11 | . - *
Mon 24 Mar 08 . I #. | 2326.75 | .- *
Tue 25 Mar 08 . #I . | 2341.05 | - *
Wed 26 Mar 08 # . I . | 2324.36 | .- *
Thu 27 Mar 08 # . I . | 2280.83 | .- *
Fri 28 Mar 08 # . I . | 2261.18 | . - *
Mon 31 Mar 08 .# I . | 2279.10 | . - *
Tue 1 Apr 08 . | #. | 2362.75 | . - *
Wed 2 Apr 08 .# | . | 2361 40 | .- *
Thu 3 Apr 08 . #| . | 2363.30 | - *
Fri 4 Apr 08 . |# . | 2370.98 |-. *
Mon 7 Apr 08 .# | . | 2279.10 |-. *
Tue 8 Apr 08 . | #. | 2362.75 |-. *
Wed 9 Apr 08 .# | . | 2361.40 |-. *
Thu 10 Apr 08 . #| . | 2363.30 |-. *
Fri 11 Apr 08 . |# . | 2370.98 |-. *
Mon 14 Apr 08 # . | . | 2275.82 | - *
Tue 15 Apr 08 # | . | 2286.04 | .- *
Wed 16 Apr 08 . | #. }| 2350.11 | - *
Thu 17 Apr 08 #. | . [| 2341.83 | - *
Fri 18 Apr 08 . | # ]| 2402.97 | - *
Mon 21 Apr 08 . #| . | 2408.04 |-. *
Tue 22 Apr 08 # . | . [| 2376.94 | - *
Wed 23 Apr 08 . #| . | 2405.21 | - *
Thu 24 Apr 08 . #| . ]| 2428.92 | - *
Fri 25 Apr 08 .# | . | 2422.93 | .- *
Mon 28 Apr 08 . # . | 2424.40 | - *
Tue 29 Apr 08 . #| . | 2426.10 |-. *
Wed 30 Apr 08 # | . | 2412.80 | - *
Thu 1 May 08 . | # | 2480.71 |-. *
Fri 2 May 08 . # . | 2476.99 |-. *
Mon 5 May 08 #. | . | 2464.12 |-. *
Tue 6 May 08 . |# . | 2483.31 |-. *
Wed 7 May 08 # . I . {| 2438.49 |-. *
Thu 8 May 08 .# I . | 2451.24 | - *
Fri 9 May 08 #. I . | 2445.52 | .- *
Mon 12 May 08 . | #. }| 2488.49 | - *
Tue 13 May 08 . |# . | 2495.12 | - *
Wed 14 May 08 . |# . | 2496.70 |-. *
Thu 15 May 08 . | #. | 2533.73 + . *
Fri 16 May 08 . # . | 2528.85 |+. *
Mon 19 May 08 . #| . | 2516.09 + . *
Tue 20 May 08 #. I . | 2492.26 |-. *
Wed 21 May 08 # . I . {| 2448.27 | - *
Thu 22 May 08 . & . | 2464.58 | - *
Fri 23 May 08 # . I . | 2444.67 | . - *
Tue 27 May 08 . I #. | 2481.24 | .- *
Wed 28 May 08 . #I . | 2486.70 | - *
Thu 29 May 08 . | #. }| 2508.32 |-. *
Fri 30 May 08 . | #. | 2522.66 |-. *
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"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline
lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces:NEXT ISSUE - should appear in June 2008.