The Contrarian's View s published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. My own material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source; quotes from other people are subject to fair-use copyright restrictions. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, open URL http://onashi.org. Former paid subscribers to the printed version are now receiving LIFETIME subscriptions, and subscriptions to the printed version are no longer being accepted. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! ISSN 1536-4429 Phone: (508) 757-2881
When raising dogs there are two most important points you learn (or should learn). One is to establish yourself right away as "alpha" - leader of the pack, and maintain that role always. The other is never to reward bad behavior. Dogs by nature are neither bad nor good, but they are motivated by food and affection. Like teenagers, they will "test" you, and you need to be ready to verbally reprimand them for unwanted behavior, and generously reward them when they respond with the behavior you desire. Perhaps it's not a big problem if we make a mistake or two with our own dogs, but with the NEADS puppies there is virtually no margin for error; these dogs must be near perfect in their behavior, or they flunk out of the program (the flunk rate is between 30% and 40%).
Because of the NEADS puppies I find myself in "puppy kindergarten" or dog obedience training classes once or twice a year. Most of the misbehaving I see in puppies occurs because their owners did not learn and follow the two rules I mentioned earlier. "Obedience" is not so much training the puppies as it is training the owners on how to responsibly raise dogs (with varying degrees of success, I might add).
It's too bad that there's no "financial kindergarten" for people to learn responsible financial behavior as there are behavior classes for lesser creatures. Consider the following tale from Peter Schiff:
"In an article this week that examined the troubles brewing in Citigroup's mortgage business, the Wall Street Journal focused on Natalie Brandon, a 51 year old married woman from Granada Hills, CA, who is currently unable to make the payments on her $625,000 adjustable rate home loan from Citigroup, despite the fact that the rate will not even reset higher until June of next year. Amazingly, the Journal reported that Mrs. Brandon bought the house in 1985 for just $105,000, but had chosen to refinance five times over the past seven years, borrowing more than $500,000 and spending every single penny. While this may be an extreme example of American profligacy, it is by no means unique. Unfortunately this type of behavior typifies everything that is wrong with the modern American economy.
"Had this homeowner behaved responsibly, as was typical for Americans of prior generations, her current monthly mortgage payments would likely be less than $600 and the remaining balance on her loan would be about $40,000. In eight more years she would have owned her home free and clear, and would likely be on track for early retirement. Instead, after 22 years of making mortgage payments, she is now $625,000 in debt. The article stated that she had recently tried to refinance into a 6%, forty year, fixed rate mortgage, but it fell through. Even if she had qualified, she would have been obligated to make monthly mortgage payments of close to $4,000 until she was in her nineties.
"For years, Wall Street and the media have been singing the praises of the heroic American consumer. To that end Mrs. Brandon could be portrayed as Wonder Woman. She did her part to power our consumer driven economy by borrowing and spending to her heart's content. Her last refinance even allowed her to buy a brand new Lexus. As long as she could find a greater fool willing to loan her more money, there was no limit to what she could buy. As it turned out, Citigroup was the greatest fool, left holding the bag on a $625,000 mortgage on a house now likely worth only half that amount.
"Is it any wonder that we have enjoyed such a vibrant consumer based economy when a working class couple with perhaps $60,000 per year of household income can borrow over $500,000 (tax free) and buy whatever they want with the money? As the bills come due and those who have been doing all of the lending finally realize they will never be repaid, this crazy consumption binge will finally come to an end."
OK, "Wonder Woman" is perhaps an extreme case, but not unique. For more than two years the U.S. personal savings rate has been negative (until the government recently rejiggered the numbers to make them look better). Why don't people save for their futures? Answer: Because it doesn't pay; they are punished by "the system" for doing so. Why do people go so deeply into debt? Answer: Because "the system" rewards them for doing so, and if enough of them do it they, like the banking system, become "too big to fail". They must be rescued (at least to the extent it keeps financial institutions from going belly-up). Why shouldn't you splurge yourself into debt if there is no downside.... if you get to keep your house and your toys (or at least break even) when you get into financial difficulties, and the savers get stuck with the bill?
What appears to be stupid behavior on the surface really is not, when you consider that our debt-based financial system, as it becomes more corrupted and unwieldy with the passing of the years, is designed to reward bad behavior in people. "The system" constantly needs a fresh supply of debt slaves to keep expanding, or at the very least, to postpone its collapse into the indefinite future.
Do I have any hope that this will ever change? No.
I noted a couple of weeks ago.... that in each instance that the market declined materially after successive discount rate cuts, S&P 500 earnings were down sharply a year later. Given that a large portion of S&P 500 profits are from financials, that profit margins in other industries are well above historical norms, and that profit margins have always collapsed during recessions, my impression is that S&P 500 earnings could easily fall by 40% over the next 18 months (investors who view this as impossible haven't examined earnings history). This could become far worse than a 5% decline off the high, which is where the S&P 500 is now. - John Hussman
The whole technical picture, which suggests a major bear cycle, harmonizes with the concept that there will be a deflationary implosion as the debt accelerates into default.... Meanwhile, the bilderboyz are in a panic busily rearranging the deck chairs on the one-world-order's ship SS Titanic as the ship's band plays that classic church hymn: "Nearer My Fed to Thee".... Stand back and let the beast thrash and make its noise as it vainly tries to ward off the coming deflationary implosion, which the Fed is trying to inflate away. Keep your sense of humor. It is vital for survival. The grand finale will no doubt occur in the 2008 election, whereby a Messiah will be elected to wave a magic wand to make everything wonderful again as tax receipts go into the tank. - Thomas Henning [Nick's comment: Not so sure about that Messiah thing. Presidential candidates are now selected way too early, well before the conventions, and a lot can go wrong between the time a candidate has his/her party's nomination all sewn up, and the November general election. The pool of eligible Messiahs is pretty well restricted to the candidates who are favored as of about March 2008.]
When businesses borrow to make investments, those investments generate returns which enable the principal and interest to be repaid. When individuals borrow to consume, no investment is made and the loans can only be repaid out of reduced future consumption. As a result, business loans, especially when collateralized by real assets, are likely to be repaid, while consumer loans, collateralized by nothing but a promise to consume less in the future are much more likely to end in default. As lenders finally figure this out, consumer credit will dry up, and the American economy will enter a prolonged and severe recession. Unfortunately, an economy that lives by consumer credit will die by it as well. Hopefully a more viable economy will eventually rise in its place. - Peter Schiff
There was an almost complete disconnect between those who originated loans and investors who accepted the risk of non-payment by buying those loans. Debt has always been sold, but never before has so much been packaged into so many types of bonds and purchased by third parties so far removed from the origination process. The bubble, growing beyond what anyone thought possible, required fraud on the part of borrowers, loan brokers and appraisers, deceit by those who rolled mortgages into triple-A-rated bonds that should have been rated F-, outright stupidity by rating agencies giving high ratings to bonds that included sub-prime mortgages, and impaired judgment by those who purchased such bonds. - Doug Thorburn
And there is only one message you can take from the Dubai PIPE deal (private investment in public equity) in the world's biggest bank. It is a walking dead man, it is too big to fail and that is the only reason anyone would pay almost $8 Billion IN EXCHANGE for this equity injection. Citigroup's balance sheet is far worse then being disclosed, they had to give an interest rate 7% above 2-year treasuries. These are rates for which the junkiest of junk corporations are currently paying funds. These are not the rates at which the biggest bank in the world should be raising money. The maximum should be 2-3% above treasuries. The amount they are paying SAYS IT ALL: Their balance sheet is in tatters and the buyers are just buying it waiting for the bailout of the bank that is "too big to fail!" - Ty Andros
All told, there are 968 U.S. commercial banks that invest in derivatives. But among them, 963 banks hold a meager 1.5% of all the interest-rate and credit derivatives in America. In contrast, just five banks hold an amazingly large 98.5% of all the interest-rate and credit derivatives. From all my studies of history, I find that to be the worst concentration of risk of all time. The five banks: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citibank, Wachovia and HSBC. How much risk are they taking? No one knows for sure. - Martin Weiss
We always expected the Fed to pull out all the stops when the U.S. economy began to slip into the void, but we never could have imagined the spinmeisters would invent "mortgage welfare" even before recession had been officially declared. Treasury's latest plan is designed to make it easier for certain ARM borrowers to temporarily freeze their starter rates to avoid foreclosure. We know the situation is dire because the big lenders are signing on without even having their arms twisted...Paulson's plan is not merely being fast-tracked, it is being shot out of a legislative cannon. - Rick Ackerman
Without question, the Bush administration's mortgage rescue plan will exacerbate, not alleviate, the problems in the housing market. As the plan will sharply reduce the ability of new buyers to make purchases, it really amounts to a stay of execution and not a pardon.... as lenders factor in the added risk of having their contracts re-written or of being held liable for defaulting borrowers, lending standards for new loans will become increasingly severe.... The result will be additional downward pressure on home prices, despite the fact that in the short term fewer homes will be sold in foreclosure than what might have been without the rescue plan. Most homes temporarily saved from foreclosure will continue to depreciate as new buyers fail to qualify for loans. As a result, lenders will be on the hook for more losses than had the foreclosures taken place sooner. Of course, as these chickens will likely come home to roost after the next election, that's a trade off incumbent politicians will happily make. - Peter Schiff
After reading more about the government's "rescue" plan, I liken it to the commercial I have seen on TV lately where the inspector fixes a hole in a massive dam with some chewing gum. This Band-Aid may work for a small portion of the subprime borrowers, but won't even come close to stopping the hemorrhaging that is going on in the housing market. It is nothing more than a political attempt at easing the U.S. consumers' concerns regarding the economy. - Chris Gaffney
What I'm already hearing from readers though, is something on the verge of anger going to the idea "Why is the government going to bail out irresponsible borrowers and I'm going to be stuck with my new rate? What kind of deal is that?" Well, the answer is, it's a political deal, and it's based on the squeaky wheel theory that says if enough cries of agony come from the bondsmen to the bonesmen, then under the guise of "helping the poor" the rich will be made not to suffer losses. Plain as day.... this is discriminatory at its core against the folks who exercised common sense and personal responsibility. - George Ure
During the Savings and Loan crisis, we were fortunate enough to have hired Bill Seidman to solve our problem. He promptly liquidated all the insolvent institutions instead of creating SIVs to extend the problem into the future. He then cleared the massive real estate overhang by liquidating and auctioning off all the defaulted properties as quickly as possible at whatever the market would pay. He let the Free Market work and turned what most thought would be a TRILLION DOLLAR hit to the taxpayers into a moderate $157 billion loss, with nary a dent to the dollar or the economy and without destroying the Constitution.... Why does anyone think that doing more of what got us into trouble in the first place (Easy Credit, Excessively Low Interest Rates and Printing Money) will solve the problem? Is that not the definition of insanity? - Aubie Baltin
Man cannot leave well enough alone, we conclude. He gets ahold of an idea and he cannot help himself. He takes it up clumsily, as he would a new wrench. Then he begins twisting it...hammering it...stretching it out...sharpening it...until he can use it to cut his own throat. Every innovation turns against him. His television brings him reality shows. His automobiles lead him into traffic jams. And scarcely a single generation after he invented them, his airplanes are dropping bombs on London. These credit mushrooms were no exception. They grew in a hothouse - nurtured by extraordinary popular delusions...fertilized by the rich manure of politics...and abundantly watered by liquidity from central banks. People ate them; their debts grew as large as their hallucinations. - Bill Bonner
Our country WAS the world's largest creditor nation a few decades ago ... IS the world's largest debtor nation now ... And WILL SOON BE the world's largest foreign-owned country! - Larry Edelson
The global banking system now faces the risk of a general flight towards cash and liquid level one assets (refer new US FAS 157 accounting standard) on a scale that has not been seen since the early 1930s. Already British banks are showing signs of near panic. - William Rees-Mogg
The truth is I don't like politicians. With only a few exceptions, I don't think they're necessarily evil or more
venal than other people, but they have an unsavory appetite for power and influence. They really believe they
are entitled to tell other people how to live, and, what's more, they're convinced that they spend other people's
money more wisely than those who actually go out and earn it. - Burt Prelutsky
But this year we have the ongoing credit crunch, largely unperceived by the general public but now widely acknowledged within the financial system, acting as a damper on investor enthusiasm. (Every time investors get into the bullish holiday spirit, another financial albatross writes down a few billion dollars in bad debts, and the reality of the credit crunch returns.)
With the two forces (good cheer versus ill wind) balancing each other, I still expect the next few weeks to be essentially flat for the stock markets (except China, where the bubble is popping), with perhaps a small bounce upward in early January. After that, the primary bear market (which arrived in late November) will reassert itself.
The risk of another major systemic failure remains a
little higher than I previously estimated for the next
four or five weeks.... about 75%.... then reverts to
about 95% after mid-January 2008.
A. "Inheritance" - real (normalized) "dividend and interest distribution" portfolio:
SUMMARY - "Inheritance":
Original cost: $100,000.00 (normalized)
Present value: $112,466.94 (see below)
Increase: $12,466.94 [+12.47%]
COMMENT on "Inheritance": As the end of the year (and thus the end of the tax year) approaches, I thought I'd harvest a few more short-term capital losses to offset this year's, or future years' gains. I sold half my holdings in Harvest Energy, replacing them with shares of Enerplus. Also, since Canetic Resources is being merged into PennWest (this was announced about two weeks after I bought my Canetic shares), and the dividend payouts are roughly the same, it made sense to sell the Canetic and buy PennWest as a direct replacement, thus capturing the short-term loss on the Canetic shares and effectively lowering the acquisition cost of my combined PennWest holdings. Next year (after the merger) I will revisit this to decide if I want so much of the portfolio tied up in one Canadian energy trust.
The portfolio cost (normalized) is $107,558.46 with $17,150.79 currently in cash or near-cash.
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $10,699.00
Present value: $24,412.73
Increase: $13,713.73 [+128.18%]
COMMENT on "PIG": At the early December meeting the PIGs, after discussing numerous choices in the oil/gas sector, elected to use some of the cash hoard to buy more Prudent Bear. I was directed to buy $1000 worth the day after the meeting, and another $1000 worth after the Fed cut interest rates on December 11, either (a) if stocks took off, or (b) on the "dead-cat bounce" if stocks sold off.... whichever scenario came to pass. Currently, I'm still waiting for that dead-cat bounce.
C. Roth IRAs - real portfolio:
SUMMARY - Roth IRAs:
Original cost: $30,046.19
Present value: $33,053.51
Increase: $ 3,007.32 [+10.01%]
COMMENT on Roth IRAs: More Tortoise Capital has been added; otherwise there is no change. (In this portfolio, I plan to wait for Canetic to be merged into PennWest.)
D. TIAA/CREF 403(b) and (non-Roth) IRA retirement plans: My TIAA-CREF and Fidelity non-individual-stocks retirement investments, both the part from which I am making monthly withdrawals and the parts that are "resting", are invested as follows: TIAA traditional, 77.78%; money-markets, 0.03%; inflation-indexed bonds, 14.95%; TIAA real estate, 2.14%; MLPs, 4.60%; FXP, 0.40%; TIAA-CREF High-Yield II, 0.10%.
TIAA-CREF values, 12Dec2007: stock, 265.21; equity-index, 100.79; MM, 24.83; bond, 83.85; inflation-indexed bond, 51.13; real estate, 308.21; TIAA current yield in SRA, about 4.8%. COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend": We are currently on a SELL signal of November 1, 2007.
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Mon 16 Jul 07 . |# . |13950.98 | + *
Tue 17 Jul 07 . |# . |13971.55 | .+ *
Wed 18 Jul 07 .# I . |13918.22 | + *
Thu 19 Jul 07 . | .# |14000.41 |+. *
Fri 20 Jul 07 #. I . {|13851.08 + . *
Mon 23 Jul 07 . I# . |13943.42 + . *
Tue 24 Jul 07 # . I . |13716.95 | - *
Wed 25 Jul 07 # . I . |13785.07 | .- *
Thu 26 Jul 07 # . I . |13473.57 | . -*
Fri 27 Jul 07 # . I . |13265.47 @|*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 30 Jul 07 .# I . |13358.51 @| . - *
Tue 31 Jul 07 # . I . |13211.99 @| . - *
Wed 1 Aug 07 #. I . |13362.37 @| . - *
Thu 2 Aug 07 .# I . |13463.33 | . - *
Fri 3 Aug 07 # . I . |13181.91 | . - *
Mon 6 Aug 07 .# I . |13468.78 | . - *
Tue 7 Aug 07 .# I . |13504.30 | . - *
Wed 8 Aug 07 . I #. |13657.86 | .- *
Thu 9 Aug 07 # . I . |13270.68 | . - *
Fri 10 Aug 07 # . I . |13239.54 | .- *
Mon 13 Aug 07 #. I . |13236.53 | . - *
Tue 14 Aug 07 # . I . |13028.92 | . - *
Wed 15 Aug 07 # . I . |12861.47 @|~.*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 16 Aug 07 # . I . |12845.78 @| . - *
Fri 17 Aug 07 . I# . |13079.08 @| . - *
Mon 20 Aug 07 # I . |13121.35 @| . - *
Tue 21 Aug 07 .# I . |13090.86 | . - *
Wed 22 Aug 07 . | # |13236.13 | - *
Thu 23 Aug 07 . #| . |13235.88 |-. *
Fri 24 Aug 07 . | .# |13378.87 + . *
Mon 27 Aug 07 . #| . |13322.13 + . *
Tue 28 Aug 07 # . I . |13401.85 |-. *
Wed 29 Aug 07 . | #. |13289.29 |-. *
Thu 30 Aug 07 # I . |13238.73 | - *
Fri 31 Aug 07 . | . # |13357.74 |-. *
Tue 4 Sep 07 . | . # |13448.85 +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 5 Sep 07 #. | . |13305.47 |+. *
Thu 6 Sep 07 . | #. |13363.35 |+. *
Fri 7 Sep 07 # . I . |13113.38 + . *
Mon 10 Sep 07 #. I . |13127.85 | - *
Tue 11 Sep 07 . | .# |13308.39 | - *
Wed 12 Sep 07 . #I . |13291.65 | - *
Thu 13 Sep 07 . | #. |13424.88 | - *
Fri 14 Sep 07 . # . |13442.52 + . *
Mon 17 Sep 07 # I . |13403.42 + . *
Tue 18 Sep 07 . | . # }|13739.39 |+. *
Wed 19 Sep 07 . | . # |13815.56 | + *
Thu 20 Sep 07 . |# . |13766.70 | + *
Fri 21 Sep 07 . | . # |13820.19 | .+ *
Mon 24 Sep 07 . |# . |13759.06 | . + *
Tue 25 Sep 07 . #| . [|13778.65 | + *
Wed 26 Sep 07 . | .# ]|13878.15 | + *
Thu 27 Sep 07 . | . # |13912.94 | + *
Fri 28 Sep 07 . | #. |13895.63 | + *
Mon 1 Oct 07 . | . # |14087.55 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 2 Oct 07 . | . # |14047.31 | . + *
Wed 3 Oct 07 . | #. |13968.05 | . + *
Thu 4 Oct 07 . | .# |13974.31 | . + *
Fri 5 Oct 07 . | . # |14066.01 | . + *
Mon 8 Oct 07 . | #. |14043.73 | . + *
Tue 9 Oct 07 . | . # |14164.53 | . + *
Wed 10 Oct 07 . | .# |14078.69 | . + *
Thu 11 Oct 07 . | # |14015.12 | . + *
Fri 12 Oct 07 . | .# |14093.08 | . + *
Mon 15 Oct 07 . # . |13984.80 | .+ *
Tue 16 Oct 07 # I . |13912.94 |+. *
Wed 17 Oct 07 . I# . |13892.54 |+. *
Thu 18 Oct 07 . & . |13888.96 + . *
Fri 19 Oct 07 # . I . {|13522.02 |*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 22 Oct 07 # I . |13566.97 | .- *
Tue 23 Oct 07 . I #. ]|13676.23 | - *
Wed 24 Oct 07 # I . [|13675.25 | - *
Thu 25 Oct 07 . I# . |13671.92 | - *
Fri 26 Oct 07 . | . # }|13806.70 + . *
Mon 29 Oct 07 . | . # |13870.26 | + *
Tue 30 Oct 07 . & . |13792.47 |+. *
Wed 31 Oct 07 . | . # |13930.01 | .+ *
Thu 1 Nov 07 # . I . {|13567.87 | + *
Fri 2 Nov 07 # I . |13595.10 + . *
Mon 5 Nov 07 # . I . |13543.40 | - *
Tue 6 Nov 07 . I #. |13660.94 | - *
Wed 7 Nov 07 # . I . |13300.02 | . - *
Thu 8 Nov 07 #. I . |13266.29 | . - *
Fri 9 Nov 07 # . I . |13042.74 |*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 12 Nov 07 # . I . |12987.55 | . - *
Tue 13 Nov 07 . I# . |13307.09 | . - *
Wed 14 Nov 07 #. I . |13231.01 | . - *
Thu 15 Nov 07 # . I . |13110.05 | . - *
Fri 16 Nov 07 #. I . |13176.79 | . - *
Mon 19 Nov 07 # . I . |12958.44 | . - *
Tue 20 Nov 07 # . I . |13010.14 @| . - *
Wed 21 Nov 07 # . I . |12799.04 @| . -*
Fri 23 Nov 07 . I# . |12980.88 | . - *
Mon 26 Nov 07 # . I . |12743.44 @| . *
Tue 27 Nov 07 .# I . |12958.44 | . - *
Wed 28 Nov 07 . I # |13289.45 | .- *
Thu 29 Nov 07 .# I . |13311.73 | - *
Fri 30 Nov 07 . I # |13371.72 |-. *
Mon 3 Dec 07 # I . |13314.57 |-. *
Tue 4 Dec 07 # . I . |13248.73 |-. *
Wed 5 Dec 07 . I # |13444.96 |-. *
Thu 6 Dec 07 . | . # |13619.89 + . *
Fri 7 Dec 07 . | .# |13625.58 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 10 Dec 07 . | . # |13727.03 | + *
Tue 11 Dec 07 # I . |13432.77 | .+ *
Wed 12 Dec 07 . & . |13473.90 | + *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": We're on a SELL signal of October 15, 2007.
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND _____________________________
Mon 16 Jul 07 . I# . {| 2697.33 |+. *
Tue 17 Jul 07 . I # | 2712.29 | + *
Wed 18 Jul 07 #. I . | 2699.49 |+. *
Thu 19 Jul 07 . I .# | 2720.04 |+. *
Fri 20 Jul 07 # . I . | 2687.60 |-. *
Mon 23 Jul 07 . & . | 2690.58 |-. *
Tue 24 Jul 07 # . I . | 2639.86 | .- *
Wed 25 Jul 07 # I . | 2648.17 | .- *
Thu 26 Jul 07 # . I . | 2599.34 | . - *
Fri 27 Jul 07 # . I . | 2562.24 | . - *
Mon 30 Jul 07 .# I . | 2582.57 @| . - *
Tue 31 Jul 07 # . I . | 2545.57 | . - *
Wed 1 Aug 07 #. I . | 2553.87 @| . - *
Thu 2 Aug 07 . #I . | 2575.98 | . - *
Fri 3 Aug 07 # . I . | 2511.25 | . - *
Mon 6 Aug 07 # I . | 2547.33 | . - *
Tue 7 Aug 07 .# I . | 2561.60 | . - *
Wed 8 Aug 07 . I # | 2612.98 | .- *
Thu 9 Aug 07 # . I . | 2556.49 | .- *
Fri 10 Aug 07 # . I . | 2544.89 | .- *
Mon 13 Aug 07 # I . | 2542.24 | .- *
Tue 14 Aug 07 # . I . | 2499.12 | . - *
Wed 15 Aug 07 # . I . | 2458.83 @| . - *
Thu 16 Aug 07 # . I . | 2451.07 @| . - *
Fri 17 Aug 07 . I #. | 2505.03 | . - *
Mon 20 Aug 07 .# I . | 2508.59 | . - *
Tue 21 Aug 07 .# I . | 2521.30 | . - *
Wed 22 Aug 07 . I # | 2552.80 |-. *
Thu 23 Aug 07 .# I . | 2541.70 |-. *
Fri 24 Aug 07 . I # | 2576.69 + . *
Mon 27 Aug 07 . #I . | 2561.25 + . *
Tue 28 Aug 07 # . I . | 2500.64 |-. *
Wed 29 Aug 07 . I# . | 2563.16 | - *
Thu 30 Aug 07 . I# . | 2565.30 |-. *
Fri 31 Aug 07 . | . # | 2596.36 |-. *
Tue 4 Sep 07 . | . # | 2630.24 |+. *
Wed 5 Sep 07 .# I . | 2605.95 | + *
Thu 6 Sep 07 . | #. | 2614.32 | + *
Fri 7 Sep 07 # . I . | 2565.70 + . *
Mon 10 Sep 07 # I . | 2559.11 |-. *
Tue 11 Sep 07 . I #. | 2597.47 | - *
Wed 12 Sep 07 . #I . | 2592.07 | - *
Thu 13 Sep 07 . I# . | 2601.05 | - *
Fri 14 Sep 07 . #I . | 2602.18 |-. *
Mon 17 Sep 07 #. I . | 2581.66 |-. *
Tue 18 Sep 07 . | . # | 2651.66 + . *
Wed 19 Sep 07 . | . # | 2666.48 |+. *
Thu 20 Sep 07 . |# . | 2654.29 |+. *
Fri 21 Sep 07 . | . # | 2671.22 | + *
Mon 24 Sep 07 . I# . | 2667.95 | .+ *
Tue 25 Sep 07 . I# . | 2683.45 | + *
Wed 26 Sep 07 . | # | 2699.03 | + *
Thu 27 Sep 07 . | # | 2709.59 | + *
Fri 28 Sep 07 . I# . | 2701.50 |+. *
Mon 1 Oct 07 . | . # | 2740.99 | + *
Tue 2 Oct 07 . | . # }| 2747.11 | .+ *
Wed 3 Oct 07 . |# . [| 2729.43 | .+ *
Thu 4 Oct 07 . | #. | 2733.57 | + *
Fri 5 Oct 07 . | . # ]| 2780.32 | . + *
Mon 8 Oct 07 . | .# | 2787.37 | .+ *
Tue 9 Oct 07 . | . # | 2803.91 | .+ *
Wed 10 Oct 07 . | .# | 2811.61 | . + *
Thu 11 Oct 07 . # . [| 2772.20 | . + *
Fri 12 Oct 07 . | .# ]| 2805.68 | .+ *
Mon 15 Oct 07 .# I . {| 2780.05 | + *
Tue 16 Oct 07 # I . | 2763.91 + . *
Wed 17 Oct 07 . I #. | 2792.67 + . *
Thu 18 Oct 07 . & . | 2799.31 + . *
Fri 19 Oct 07 # . I . | 2725.16 | - *
Mon 22 Oct 07 . #I . | 2753.93 | - *
Tue 23 Oct 07 . I #. | 2799.26 |-. *
Wed 24 Oct 07 # . I . | 2774.76 | .- *
Thu 25 Oct 07 #. I . | 2750.86 | .- *
Fri 26 Oct 07 . I #. | 2804.19 | - *
Mon 29 Oct 07 . I #. | 2817.44 |-. *
Tue 30 Oct 07 . #I . | 2816.71 | - *
Wed 31 Oct 07 . I # | 2859.12 + . *
Thu 1 Nov 07 # . I . | 2794.83 + . *
Fri 2 Nov 07 .# I . | 2810.38 |-. *
Mon 5 Nov 07 # . I . | 2795.18 | .- *
Tue 6 Nov 07 .# I . | 2825.18 | .- *
Wed 7 Nov 07 # . I . | 2748.76 | . - *
Thu 8 Nov 07 # . I . | 2696.00 | . - *
Fri 9 Nov 07 # . I . | 2627.94 @| . - *
Mon 12 Nov 07 # . I . | 2584.13 @| . - *
Tue 13 Nov 07 . I# . | 2673.65 @| . - *
Wed 14 Nov 07 #. I . | 2644.32 | . - *
Thu 15 Nov 07 # . I . | 2618.51 | . - *
Fri 16 Nov 07 # I . | 2637.24 | . - *
Mon 19 Nov 07 # . I . | 2593.38 | . - *
Tue 20 Nov 07 # . I . | 2596.81 @| . - *
Wed 21 Nov 07 # . I . | 2562.15 @| . - *
Fri 23 Nov 07 . #I . | 2596.60 | . - *
Mon 26 Nov 07 # . I . | 2540.99 @| . - *
Tue 27 Nov 07 . #I . | 2580.80 | . - *
Wed 28 Nov 07 .# I . | 2662.91 | . - *
Thu 29 Nov 07 .# I . | 2668.13 | .- *
Fri 30 Nov 07 .# I . | 2660.96 | .- *
Mon 3 Dec 07 #. I . | 2637.13 | .- *
Tue 4 Dec 07 # . I . | 2619.83 | . - *
Wed 5 Dec 07 . #I . | 2666.36 | .- *
Thu 6 Dec 07 . I #. | 2709.03 | .- *
Fri 7 Dec 07 . #I . | 2706.16 | - *
Mon 10 Dec 07 . |# . | 2718.95 |-. *
Tue 11 Dec 07 # . I . | 2652.35 |-. *
Wed 12 Dec 07 .# I . | 2671.14 |-. *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline
lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces:NEXT ISSUE - is scheduled to appear in late January 2008.