The Contrarian's View s published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. My own material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source; quotes from other people are subject to fair-use copyright restrictions. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, open URL http://onashi.org. Former paid subscribers to the printed version are now receiving LIFETIME subscriptions, and subscriptions to the printed version are no longer being accepted. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! ISSN 1536-4429 Phone: (508) 757-2881
In mid-August there were two large short positions on stock indexes taken by a mystery trader or traders which have been dubbed the "bin Laden" trades because of their similarity to the large numbers of puts bought by Osama bin Laden's cronies before the 9-11-2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center .
The first was the purchase of well-out-of-the-money puts at a strike of 2800, expiring September 21, on the DJ Eurostoxx 50 index (about 4100 when the puts were purchased), controlling about $8 billion notional value at the strike valuation. World equity markets would have had to plunge by about one-third for these to be in the money at expiration.
The second was the sale of calls on the S&P 500 at a strike price of 700 (about half of then-current trading levels), also expiring September 21, controlling $4.5 billion notional value. These were unlikely to be profitable unless stocks essentially crashed before then; otherwise the seller would lose more than $1 billion on the bet.
It seemed to me there were only three likely possibilities for such large trades:
1. Some hedge-fund manager or managers hit the panic button to protect against further losses. (Given the timing, mid-August, when the liquidity crunch hit full force, this is very possible.)
2. The trades were part of some hedged income generating scheme, where the offsetting position was not visible. (The sale of deep-in-the-money calls is a likely candidate for this possibility.)
3. The trader (or traders) knew, or believed he knew with a great degree of certainty, that stocks would indeed crash before the 21st.
It's this third possibility that interested me, because very seldom are we given any clue by "the big boys", those who have the clout for self-fulfilling prophecy, as to their intentions or expectations. Perhaps the odds for this third possibility were low, but it would still bear watching, because seeing the future of the markets with some level of certainty, even if low, is certainly better than being completely in the dark, which is the usual situation.
Likely trader(s) for #3 include terrorists intending to profit from an incipient attack (as happened with 9-11-2001, or might have happened if the aborted attack using German aircraft had transpired), or the Chinese deciding to pull the plug on the dollar.
But my best guess is that some hedge fund (or group of funds) received massive redemption requests before the August 15 cutoff date, and calculated that the amount of liquidation it must do to meet end-of September redemptions would essentially crash the market, and so it took an offsetting position to compensate for the losses in value of what had to be sold. The size of the bets pointed to a single institutional player, rather than a government (such as the Chinese).
So if events were to happen as the seller apparently expected, the hedge-fund participants might break even, but everybody else (not short) would lose big, including the average Joe on the street who would not have a clue to what hit him.
At any rate, all that I, or anybody, could do was wait for September 21 to come and go, and see what (if any) spectacular event occurred.
The Fed set the short-term tone for stocks on September 18 with its half-percent cut in both the discount and Fed funds rates, so whatever was supposed to happen by September 21.... such as a liquidity meltdown.... was defused by this action. Therefore the good news is, massive put-buying or bearish call-writing does not necessarily presage a terrorist attack (unless one was aborted and we weren't told about it) or financial crisis. If we see such positions taken again, they're probably some part of the slicing and dicing of derivatives, and they should be ignored.
The bad news is, the Fed has sent us an ugly message. This ugly message is not that the Fed has bailed out its friends on Wall Street, though it has, and for which it is rightly being criticized. Nor is it that the Fed will trash the value of the dollar to keep the liquidity gusher going, though it will, for which it is rightly being criticized. As I see it, the ugly message is that the liquidity crisis is much more severe than its public visage, and the Fed took (what it sees as a) bold action to prevent a complete liquidity freezup and systemic collapse. The Fed has, in effect, validated what I've been writing about for months about the high probability of systemic failure. The Fed is the bankers' bank.... they are in a position to know the true situation.
At hand we still have the question of whether the Fed's ongoing injections of liquidity will allow us to muddle through, with a persistent inflationary bias and maybe even a "crack-up boom".... or whether at some point the asset deflation will overwhelm the Fed's efforts and plunge us into a deflationary depression ("pushing on a string"), as in the 1930s.
We have one modern (fiat money) large-economy precedent, that of the Japanese, 1990 to present. The Japanese central government printed (and spent) plenty of yen, but that was not enough to overcome the psychological shift to deflation. Though debt levels were high in Japan during the boom years, so were personal savings rates, and because they "owed it to themselves" that might have caused the mildly deflationary income.
In the U.S. we also have high levels of debt from the boom years, and there are also high savings rates.... by foreigners. Not quite the same situation. The opportunity to stick it to the foreigners (by defaulting on debt through dollar devaluation) may be too strong for our weak-willed "leaders" to resist, even though in the end the foreigners will end up sticking it to us, as U.S. citizens turn into debt slaves of their foreign masters.
Though Japan's 1990 stock-market crash is regarded
as the turning point from boom to bust, in reality the
problems in Japan did not become severe until their
real-estate market started heading south.... a process
which is just now picking up steam in the U.S. (and
UK and Australia). We probably will be able to get a
better reading on the eventual trajectory of economic
decline in six months to a year's time.
So, even if the Fed were to cut rates massively now, it is unlikely that it would stimulate credit growth, which, as I have explained repeatedly in the past, must continuously expand at an accelerating rate in a credit- and asset-driven economy in order to keep the economic plane from losing altitude. Accelerating credit growth is most unlikely now, because I cannot see how financial intermediaries will ease lending standards any time soon after the losses they have recently endured and following their dismal stock performance. In addition, being fairly familiar with the cowardly attitude of investors, it is most unlikely that investors will now wish to buy anything other than top-quality paper and solid companies' shares. Therefore, I can see only one solution if the Fed really wanted to attempt to bail out the system, and that would be for it to drastically cut interest rates. Unfortunately, massive interest rate cuts at present may not help much and could potentially have very negative side-effects (an even weaker dollar, inflation, rising long-term interest rates, further widening of income and wealth inequity etc.) - Marc Faber
Welcome to Weimar Revisited! Forget about any 'Moral Hazard,' and forget about the purchasing power of those hard-earned Dollars. Clearly, that is the message that the Fed is sending to the International community with today's [September 18] action. A shocking, potentially reckless move.... Only time will tell, but for now, the Fed's stark message seems to be re-inflate at all costs.... the action today by the Fed sends a very negative message to global investors, that the US will not support its money. That is potentially the most dangerous concept any central bank can breed.... We have moved from one serial bubble blower in "I didn't get it! " Alan.... to now a man, who for the second time in a decade, seems to be steering the country toward yet another wrong choice. Before this one is over, if the Fed does not change course, we may all pay the penultimate penalty of having walked down the path toward hyper-inflation. The sheer arrogance of the Fed may not be in question today, especially by a gleeful US Stock Market smelling "bail out" for the insider cronies; but in a different reality, that of a burgeoning currency crisis six months down the road, with Fed credibility shot, the situation may have a much darker complexion. At that point, there may be little in which to rejoice. - Frank Barbera
Bernanke may have provided some relief for all the home debtors who will be facing ARM resets (those are expected to peak in mid 2008 but remain high for a few more years), but if they want to sell, they will find that most people now are back to the old time religion and want FIXED rate financing - and 30 years fixed rates will be rising in an inflationary environment. So the home debtors won't be able to sell - and escape their liens, but, thankfully, will be able to keep paying the mortgage that is based on an artificially low short term index. Like boiling a frog slowly in a pot of water, by the time the frog realizes that the water is hot, his skin is cooked. These home debtors will be able to keep the payments (to Wall Street) flowing now while slowly, slowly their houses decrease in value (back to pre-bubble levels); they keep paying in hope the market will come back - any day now. By the time they wake up to what's going on - their goose is cooked. Yes they've paid off a little of the principal, but their homes are now worth less - in California and other extreme bubble states, considerably less. Guess there is some justice in all this, as they realize then that there "ain't gonna be nobody" to pay off the balance that they borrowed but themselves - every last cent. - Paul Tolnai
We're disappointed in the new Fed Chief. We thought he would be different than Greenspan. We were taken in by his scholarly appearance and his modest demeanor. We thought we sensed the heart of a real patriot-- a man of character and conviction. We were wrong. In his first crisis, Bernanke caved in and gave away the store. He rewarded his fat-cat friends at the hedge funds and investment banks while paving the way for more inflation for the rest of us.... The Fed chief has shown foreign investors that he WILL NOT DEFEND THE DOLLAR. That is a powerful message to anyone who hopes to profit by investing in the US. It alerts them to the fact that the "strong dollar" policy is a fraud and that they're better off getting out of US Treasuries and dollar-backed assets. - Mike Whitney
Every time the Fed turns around to save its friends on Wall Street, it makes the situation worse. The dollar's going to collapse, the bond market's going to collapse. There's going to be a lot of problems in the U.S. - Jim Rogers
What good are lower Fed funds rates if lenders are too frightened to write new mortgages? And what good is it if banks can borrow more cheaply when nearly everyone else - especially home buyers - either can't get loans at all or have to pay through the nose when they do? - Martin Weiss
The bottom line is this: You may continue to show a 'paper gain' on investments, but on a purchasing power basis, the top was in in 2000 and what appears before you now is the Fed's best efforts to walk the line between a deflationary collapse and a hyperinflationary collapse. They may be able to pull it off, too. But your purchasing power will suffer - and your quality of life seems likely to continue to fall as what's now only 4.8 cents of purchasing power of the original pre-Fed US dollar is set up to be hollowed out again! - George Ure
We may have a time over the next couple of months in which the stock market goes up in dramatic fashion, but at the end game anyone holding their savings and assets in US dollars will be wiped out. The Fed signaled yesterday that it is willing to take that risk in order to save a bunch of Wall Street banks and hedge funds. Welcome to socialism for the rich. If the dollar goes to nothing hundreds of millions of people will lose their saving to bail out a few Wall Street bankers. It will one of the greatest transfers of wealth in history of money from the poor to the rich. - Michael Swanson
Coming at a time when rate increases were needed to combat the sinking dollar and surging gold, oil and other commodity prices, Ben Bernanke's 50 basis point cuts in the Fed funds and discount rates this week may go down as the most irresponsible move in Fed history. To America's creditors around the world, whose mountains of dollar reserves will be debased by lower rates in the U.S., this action amounts to the monetary equivalent of "let them eat cake." My prediction is that rather than doing so, they will just throw it back in our faces, and refuse to continue funding our deficits. - Peter Schiff
Now that home mortgage defaults are spreading like wildfire from coast to coast, there is a growing sense of certainty that the government will attempt to bail out homeowners and lenders.... However, just as some things are too big to fail, this problem is far too big to fix. First of all, one has to consider the moral hazards inherent in any bailout. Immediate relief in the form of debt reductions and more favorable loan terms will create a powerful incentive to default. Why would anyone stretch to make a burdensome mortgage payment while others are being rewarded for failing to make theirs? Even without the incentives of a government bailout luring more people into default, policy makers simply have no idea as to the scope of the problem. Before this home mortgage correction runs its course, nearly every homeowner in the country who had availed themselves of an adjustable rate mortgage or a home equity loan will be in need of a bailout. Even a sizable percentage of those with traditional fixed rate mortgages will find themselves in danger. With millions, or perhaps tens of millions, of home owners on the rocks, there is simply no way the government can structure a bailout without bankrupting the country or destroying the currency. - Peter Schiff
If the day of reckoning for our Western markets is now approaching.... the end-game looks like.... the collapse of our developed-world currencies. With the US Dollar leading the way, the Euro, the Yen and the Pound will all follow in their turn. That's because modern central bankers cannot stand aside and watch while a shortage of credit - for both business investment and consumer demand - damages their beloved economic growth. They will make borrowed money artificially cheap, acting in the belief that the failure to do this caused the Great Depression. - Paul Tustain
We are at an end of an era - Now begins global financial instability. It is impossible to speculate how long today's turmoil will last - but there now exists an uncertainty and lack of confidence that has been unparalleled since the 1930s - and this ignorance and fear is itself a crucial factor. The moment of reckoning for bankers and bosses has arrived. What is very clear is that losses are massive and the entire developed world is now experiencing the worst economic crisis since 1945, one in which troubles in one nation compound those in others. - Gabriel Kolko
This is one ugly investment climate in which to throw caution to the wind and follow the historical precedent that interest rate cuts mean higher stock prices. That HAS worked most of the time - but NOT in 2001 after the high-tech bubble popped... and it might very well not work this time around. A few reductions in interest rates are not going to reduce the swelling inventory of unsold homes or resurrect the esoteric sub-prime mortgages again. - Jim Stack
You can throw out your economic models, quantitative analysis and research reports. It really just boils down to Economics 101: The Federal Reserve is prepared to do whatever it takes to head off a credit collapse and potential recession. This economy and market still have some bumps ahead. But the key to stanching any credit crunch is to provide more credit. And with the Fed apparently willing to do anything short of throwing bags of money out of airplanes, the odds of a global economic catastrophe are fading fast. - Roger Conrad
What is different is that instead of permitting reckless speculators to get what they've got coming, losses will be socialized - redistributed to consumers, investors and savers all over the world. And instead of allowing the market to liquidate weak companies and remove the rot, the rottenness is jolly well encouraged to spread. Instead of the needed liquidation, in other words...we will get more liquidity...the damp, after-shower conditions that caused markets to slip-up in the first place. Progress in science and technology may be incremental. But in love and central banking, it is largely an illusion. - Bill Bonner
It is lack of honesty and intellectual integrity that now accelerates America's demise. Americans ought to
know better. We ought to be adults who understand that falsifying reality won't work. The enemies of the
United States have watched and waited for a fatal flaw to emerge. And now, at long last, the corruption of the
American character through too many decades of prosperity has opened the way. The people of the United
States have lost sight of the truth. They have forgotten that the world is underpinned by economic hardship
and war. The United States came to think of itself as exempt from this underpinning. But no nation is exempt.
No nation can escape the grim realities of this world or the severe consequences of downplaying and
dismissing these realities. Economic hardship and war are coming to America. We must not suffer a
recession, say the Americans. We cannot support a war, even in the defense of our own long-term interests
because our country has no interests worth dying for. Let the dollar fall. Let our enemies take the oil fields.
What will the world do against us? They must export to us, they must send oil to us; they must eat our bonds,
our treasury notes, our worthless paper currency. This is how it has always been. This is how it must always
be. - J. R. Nyquist
I would expect softness in the stock markets to about Thanksgiving (with the possibility of a crash, per Hindenburg omen, though this is now unlikely), then a holiday-season and early-January reprieve, then more softness as the peaking of mortgage resets next spring kills off consumer spending.
The risk of another major systemic failure remains
high.... about 95% to mid-November, then about 60%
through January 2008. After that, we'll see.
A. "Inheritance" - real (normalized) "dividend and interest distribution" portfolio:
SUMMARY - "Inheritance":
Original cost: $100,000.00 (normalized)
Present value: $116,479.15 (see below)
Increase: $16,479.15 [+16.48%]
COMMENT on "Inheritance": In the August issue I said I was undecided whether to take on an additional position in Ultrashort financials or real estate. I ultimately decided on Financials (SKF), which includes brokerages and other quasi-banks as well as the large money-center banks. The Fed may bail out the banks.... once their problems become public.... but not necessarily the quasi-banks.
The big change in the portfolio for the month is the announced acquisition of PrimeWest by an Abu Dhabi energy company, at about a 1/3 markup from the before-announcement trading price. For this you can blame (or thank) the stupid Canadian politicians for breaking their promises (not that a politician's promise is worth much to begin with) and changing the future tax status of the Canadian trusts in a surprise Halloween 2006 move. This has caused the energy trusts to trade at bargain-basement levels and made their assets attractive to U.S. and foreign firms on the acquisition trail. (It's also much easier, and maybe fairer to unitholders, for the trusts to sell out than to incur the trouble and expense of dealing with the tax changes.) I am now looking at alternative places for the buyout money.... most likely other Canadian royalty trusts.
The portfolio cost (normalized) is $108,819.48 with $17,331.32 currently in cash or near-cash.
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $10,699.00
Present value: $23,340.78
Increase: $12,641.78 [+118.16%]
COMMENT on "PIG": I continue to "roll over" 3-monthT-bills, one per month (except when I forget).
C. Roth IRAs - real portfolio:
SUMMARY - Roth IRAs:
Original cost: $30,046.19
Present value: $38,336.57
Increase: $ 8,290.38 [+27.59%]
COMMENT on Roth IRAs: I have decided to add shares of currently-depressed Precision Drilling here, rather than in the Inheritance Portfolio replacing PrimeWest, because the Roth has a longer-term outlook and can wait for natural-gas prices (and interest in drilling for natural gas) to recover.
D. TIAA/CREF 403(b) and (non-Roth) IRA retirement plans: My TIAA-CREF and Fidelity non-individual-stocks retirement investments, both the part from which I am making monthly withdrawals and the parts that are "resting", are invested as follows: TIAA traditional, 76.62%; T-bills and money-markets, 1.08%; TIAA-CREF inflation-indexed bonds (retirement), 14.72%; TIAA real estate, 3.10%; MLPs, 4.43%; TIAA-CREF High-Yield II, 0.05%. New to the non-Roth IRAs is Duncan Energy Partners.
TIAA-CREF values, 28Sep2007: stock, 268.55; equity-index, 103.23; MM, 24.61; bond, 82.13; inflation-indexed bond, 49.16; real estate, 304.82; TIAA current yield in SRA, about 4.8%. COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend": We are currently on a BUY signal of September 18, 2007.
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Mon 2 Apr 07 . | . # |12382.30 | .+ *
Tue 3 Apr 07 . | . # |12510.30 | . + *
Wed 4 Apr 07 . | . # |12530.05 | . + *
Thu 5 Apr 07 . | . # |12560.20 | . + *
Mon 9 Apr 07 . | . # |12569.14 | . + *
Tue 10 Apr 07 . | . # |12573.85 @| . + *
Wed 11 Apr 07 . | #. |12484.62 | . + *
Thu 12 Apr 07 . | . # |12552.96 | . + *
Fri 13 Apr 07 . | . # |12612.13 | . + *
Mon 16 Apr 07 . | . # |12720.46 | . + *
Tue 17 Apr 07 . | . # |12773.04 | . + *
Wed 18 Apr 07 . | . # |12803.84 @|~.~~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 19 Apr 07 . | # |12808.63 | . + *
Fri 20 Apr 07 . | . # |12961.98 | . + *
Mon 23 Apr 07 . | .# |12919.40 | . + *
Tue 24 Apr 07 . | .# |12953.94 | . + *
Wed 25 Apr 07 . | . # |13089.89 | . + *
Thu 26 Apr 07 . | .# |13105.50 | . + *
Fri 27 Apr 07 . | # |13120.94 | . + *
Mon 30 Apr 07 . |# . |13062.91 | . + *
Tue 1 May 07 . | # |13136.14 | .+ *
Wed 2 May 07 . | . # |13211.88 | .+ *
Thu 3 May 07 . | . # |13241.38 | . + *
Fri 4 May 07 . | . # |13264.62 | . + *
Mon 7 May 07 . | . # |13312.97 |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 8 May 07 . | # |13309.07 | . + *
Wed 9 May 07 . | . # |13362.87 | . + *
Thu 10 May 07 . #| . |13215.13 | . + *
Fri 11 May 07 . | . # |13326.22 | . + *
Mon 14 May 07 . | # |13346.78 | .+ *
Tue 15 May 07 . | # |13383.84 | .+ *
Wed 16 May 07 . | . # |13487.53 | .+ *
Thu 17 May 07 . | # |13476.72 | . + *
Fri 18 May 07 . | . # |13556.53 | . + *
Mon 21 May 07 . | . # |13542.88 | . + *
Tue 22 May 07 . | . # |13539.95 | . + *
Wed 23 May 07 . | .# |13525.65 | . + *
Thu 24 May 07 . #I . |13441.13 | . + *
Fri 25 May 07 . | . # |13507.28 | .+ *
Tue 29 May 07 . | . # |13521.34 | .+ *
Wed 30 May 07 . | . # |13633.08 | . + *
Thu 31 May 07 . | . # |13627.64 | . + *
Fri 1 Jun 07 . | . # |13668.11 | . + *
Mon 4 Jun 07 . | . # |13676.32 | . + *
Tue 5 Jun 07 . |# . |13595.46 | . + *
Wed 6 Jun 07 # I . |13465.67 | .+ *
Thu 7 Jun 07 # . I . {|13266.73 + . *
Fri 8 Jun 07 . I# . ]|13424.39 |-. *
Mon 11 Jun 07 . & . |13424.96 | - *
Tue 12 Jun 07 # . I . [|13295.01 | . - *
Wed 13 Jun 07 . I .# ]|13482.35 | - *
Thu 14 Jun 07 . I . # |13553.72 + . *
Fri 15 Jun 07 . | . # }|13639.48 |+. *
Mon 18 Jun 07 . | .# |13612.98 | + *
Tue 19 Jun 07 . | .# |13635.42 | . + *
Wed 20 Jun 07 . I# . |13489.42 | . + *
Thu 21 Jun 07 . | # |13545.84 | .+ *
Fri 22 Jun 07 .# I . |13360.26 | + *
Mon 25 Jun 07 # I . {|13352.05 + . *
Tue 26 Jun 07 #. I . |13337.66 |-. *
Wed 27 Jun 07 . I# . |13427.73 |-. *
Thu 28 Jun 07 . I # ]|13422.28 |-. *
Fri 29 Jun 07 . I #. |13408.62 |-. *
Mon 2 Jul 07 . | . # }|13535.43 |+. *
Tue 3 Jul 07 . | . # |13577.30 | .+ *
Thu 5 Jul 07 . | .# |13565.84 | . + *
Fri 6 Jul 07 . | . # |13611.68 | . + *
Mon 9 Jul 07 . | .# |13649.97 | . + *
Tue 10 Jul 07 .# | . |13501.70 | .+ *
Wed 11 Jul 07 . | #. |13577.87 | + *
Thu 12 Jul 07 . | . # |13861.73 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 13 Jul 07 . | . # |13907.25 | .+ *
Mon 16 Jul 07 . |# . |13950.98 | + *
Tue 17 Jul 07 . |# . |13971.55 | .+ *
Wed 18 Jul 07 .# I . |13918.22 | + *
Thu 19 Jul 07 . | .# |14000.41 |+. *
Fri 20 Jul 07 #. I . {|13851.08 + . *
Mon 23 Jul 07 . I# . |13943.42 + . *
Tue 24 Jul 07 # . I . |13716.95 | - *
Wed 25 Jul 07 # . I . |13785.07 | .- *
Thu 26 Jul 07 # . I . |13473.57 | . -*
Fri 27 Jul 07 # . I . |13265.47 @|*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 30 Jul 07 .# I . |13358.51 @| . - *
Tue 31 Jul 07 # . I . |13211.99 @| . - *
Wed 1 Aug 07 #. I . |13362.37 @| . - *
Thu 2 Aug 07 .# I . |13463.33 | . - *
Fri 3 Aug 07 # . I . |13181.91 | . - *
Mon 6 Aug 07 .# I . |13468.78 | . - *
Tue 7 Aug 07 .# I . |13504.30 | . - *
Wed 8 Aug 07 . I #. |13657.86 | .- *
Thu 9 Aug 07 # . I . |13270.68 | . - *
Fri 10 Aug 07 # . I . |13239.54 | .- *
Mon 13 Aug 07 #. I . |13236.53 | . - *
Tue 14 Aug 07 # . I . |13028.92 | . - *
Wed 15 Aug 07 # . I . |12861.47 @|~.*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 16 Aug 07 # . I . |12845.78 @| . - *
Fri 17 Aug 07 . I# . |13079.08 @| . - *
Mon 20 Aug 07 # I . |13121.35 @| . - *
Tue 21 Aug 07 .# I . |13090.86 | . - *
Wed 22 Aug 07 . | # |13236.13 | - *
Thu 23 Aug 07 . #| . |13235.88 |-. *
Fri 24 Aug 07 . | .# |13378.87 + . *
Mon 27 Aug 07 . #| . |13322.13 + . *
Tue 28 Aug 07 # . I . |13401.85 |-. *
Wed 29 Aug 07 . | #. |13289.29 |-. *
Thu 30 Aug 07 # I . |13238.73 | - *
Fri 31 Aug 07 . | . # |13357.74 |-. *
Tue 4 Sep 07 . | . # |13448.85 +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 5 Sep 07 #. | . |13305.47 |+. *
Thu 6 Sep 07 . | #. |13363.35 |+. *
Fri 7 Sep 07 # . I . |13113.38 + . *
Mon 10 Sep 07 #. I . |13127.85 | - *
Tue 11 Sep 07 . | .# |13308.39 | - *
Wed 12 Sep 07 . #I . |13291.65 | - *
Thu 13 Sep 07 . | #. |13424.88 | - *
Fri 14 Sep 07 . # . |13442.52 + . *
Mon 17 Sep 07 # I . |13403.42 + . *
Tue 18 Sep 07 . | . # }|13739.39 |+. *
Wed 19 Sep 07 . | . # |13815.56 | + *
Thu 20 Sep 07 . |# . |13766.70 | + *
Fri 21 Sep 07 . | . # |13820.19 | .+ *
Mon 24 Sep 07 . |# . |13759.06 | . + *
Tue 25 Sep 07 . #| . [|13778.65 | + *
Wed 26 Sep 07 . | .# ]|13878.15 | + *
Thu 27 Sep 07 . | . # |13912.94 | + *
Fri 28 Sep 07 . | #. |13895.63 | + *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": We're on a SELL signal of July 16, 2007.
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND _____________________________
Mon 19 Mar 07 . I #. | 2394.41 | - *
Tue 20 Mar 07 . | # | 2408.21 + . *
Wed 21 Mar 07 . | . # }| 2455.92 |+. *
Thu 22 Mar 07 . | # | 2451.74 | + *
Fri 23 Mar 07 . | .# | 2448.93 | .+ *
Mon 26 Mar 07 . | .# | 2455.63 | . + *
Tue 27 Mar 07 . #| . | 2437.43 | .+ *
Wed 28 Mar 07 .# I . {| 2417.10 |+. *
Thu 29 Mar 07 . #I . | 2417.88 + . *
Fri 30 Mar 07 . I #. | 2421.64 + . *
Mon 2 Apr 07 . I# . | 2422.26 |-. *
Tue 3 Apr 07 . | . # }| 2450.33 |+. *
Wed 4 Apr 07 . | . # | 2458.69 | + *
Thu 5 Apr 07 . | . # | 2471.34 | .+ *
Mon 9 Apr 07 . | # | 2469.18 | .+ *
Tue 10 Apr 07 . | # | 2477.61 | . + *
Wed 11 Apr 07 .# I . {| 2459.31 | + *
Thu 12 Apr 07 . | .# }| 2480.32 | + *
Fri 13 Apr 07 . | . # | 2491.94 | + *
Mon 16 Apr 07 . | . # | 2518.33 | .+ *
Tue 17 Apr 07 . | # | 2516.95 | .+ *
Wed 18 Apr 07 . | # | 2510.50 | . + *
Thu 19 Apr 07 . |# . | 2505.35 | .+ *
Fri 20 Apr 07 . | . # | 2526.39 | .+ *
Mon 23 Apr 07 . | #. | 2523.67 | + *
Tue 24 Apr 07 . | #. | 2524.54 | + *
Wed 25 Apr 07 . | .# | 2547.89 | + *
Thu 26 Apr 07 . | # | 2554.46 | .+ *
Fri 27 Apr 07 . I #. | 2557.21 | + *
Mon 30 Apr 07 # I . {| 2525.09 |+. *
Tue 1 May 07 . #I . | 2531.53 |+. *
Wed 2 May 07 . | . # }| 2557.84 |+. *
Thu 3 May 07 . | . # | 2565.46 |+. *
Fri 4 May 07 . | . # | 2572.15 | + *
Mon 7 May 07 . | # | 2570.95 | .+ *
Tue 8 May 07 . I # | 2571.75 | . + *
Wed 9 May 07 . | # | 2576.34 | .+ *
Thu 10 May 07 # I . {| 2533.74 | + *
Fri 11 May 07 . I .# | 2562.22 | + *
Mon 14 May 07 . & . | 2546.44 |+. *
Tue 15 May 07 # I . | 2525.29 + . *
Wed 16 May 07 . I #. | 2547.42 + . *
Thu 17 May 07 . & . | 2539.38 + . *
Fri 18 May 07 . I # | 2558.45 + . *
Mon 21 May 07 . I . # | 2578.79 |+. *
Tue 22 May 07 . | . # }| 2588.02 | .+ *
Wed 23 May 07 . | #. [| 2577.05 | .+ *
Thu 24 May 07 # I . {| 2537.92 | + *
Fri 25 May 07 . I # | 2557.19 | + *
Tue 29 May 07 . | . # }| 2572.06 | + *
Wed 30 May 07 . | .# | 2592.59 | + *
Thu 31 May 07 . | . # | 2604.52 | .+ *
Fri 1 Jun 07 . | . # | 2613.92 | . + *
Mon 4 Jun 07 . | .# | 2618.29 | . + *
Tue 5 Jun 07 . |# . | 2611.23 | . + *
Wed 6 Jun 07 .# I . {| 2587.18 | + *
Thu 7 Jun 07 #. I . | 2541.38 + . *
Fri 8 Jun 07 . I .# | 2573.54 + . *
Mon 11 Jun 07 . I# . | 2572.15 + . *
Tue 12 Jun 07 #. I . | 2549.77 |-. *
Wed 13 Jun 07 . I .# | 2582.31 + . *
Thu 14 Jun 07 . I . # | 2599.41 | + *
Fri 15 Jun 07 . | . # }| 2626.71 | + *
Mon 18 Jun 07 . | # | 2626.60 | + *
Tue 19 Jun 07 . | #. | 2626.76 | . + *
Wed 20 Jun 07 . #I . {| 2599.96 | .+ *
Thu 21 Jun 07 . I #. | 2616.96 | + *
Fri 22 Jun 07 .# I . | 2588.96 + . *
Mon 25 Jun 07 .# I . | 2577.08 |-. *
Tue 26 Jun 07 .# I . | 2574.16 |-. *
Wed 27 Jun 07 . I # | 2605.35 |-. *
Thu 28 Jun 07 . I # | 2608.37 + . *
Fri 29 Jun 07 . I# . | 2603.23 + . *
Mon 2 Jul 07 . | . # | 2632.30 | + *
Tue 3 Jul 07 . | . # | 2644.95 | .+ *
Thu 5 Jul 07 . | .# | 2656.65 | .+ *
Fri 6 Jul 07 . | .# }| 2666.51 | .+ *
Mon 9 Jul 07 . | # | 2670.02 | . + *
Tue 10 Jul 07 .# I . {| 2639.16 | + *
Wed 11 Jul 07 . I# . | 2651.79 | + *
Thu 12 Jul 07 . | . # }| 2701.73 | + *
Fri 13 Jul 07 . | # | 2707.00 | + *
Mon 16 Jul 07 . I# . {| 2697.33 |+. *
Tue 17 Jul 07 . I # | 2712.29 | + *
Wed 18 Jul 07 #. I . | 2699.49 |+. *
Thu 19 Jul 07 . I .# | 2720.04 |+. *
Fri 20 Jul 07 # . I . | 2687.60 |-. *
Mon 23 Jul 07 . & . | 2690.58 |-. *
Tue 24 Jul 07 # . I . | 2639.86 | .- *
Wed 25 Jul 07 # I . | 2648.17 | .- *
Thu 26 Jul 07 # . I . | 2599.34 | . - *
Fri 27 Jul 07 # . I . | 2562.24 | . - *
Mon 30 Jul 07 .# I . | 2582.57 @| . - *
Tue 31 Jul 07 # . I . | 2545.57 | . - *
Wed 1 Aug 07 #. I . | 2553.87 @| . - *
Thu 2 Aug 07 . #I . | 2575.98 | . - *
Fri 3 Aug 07 # . I . | 2511.25 | . - *
Mon 6 Aug 07 # I . | 2547.33 | . - *
Tue 7 Aug 07 .# I . | 2561.60 | . - *
Wed 8 Aug 07 . I # | 2612.98 | .- *
Thu 9 Aug 07 # . I . | 2556.49 | .- *
Fri 10 Aug 07 # . I . | 2544.89 | .- *
Mon 13 Aug 07 # I . | 2542.24 | .- *
Tue 14 Aug 07 # . I . | 2499.12 | . - *
Wed 15 Aug 07 # . I . | 2458.83 @| . - *
Thu 16 Aug 07 # . I . | 2451.07 @| . - *
Fri 17 Aug 07 . I #. | 2505.03 | . - *
Mon 20 Aug 07 .# I . | 2508.59 | . - *
Tue 21 Aug 07 .# I . | 2521.30 | . - *
Wed 22 Aug 07 . I # | 2552.80 |-. *
Thu 23 Aug 07 .# I . | 2541.70 |-. *
Fri 24 Aug 07 . I # | 2576.69 + . *
Mon 27 Aug 07 . #I . | 2561.25 + . *
Tue 28 Aug 07 # . I . | 2500.64 |-. *
Wed 29 Aug 07 . I# . | 2563.16 | - *
Thu 30 Aug 07 . I# . | 2565.30 |-. *
Fri 31 Aug 07 . | . # | 2596.36 |-. *
Tue 4 Sep 07 . | . # | 2630.24 |+. *
Wed 5 Sep 07 .# I . | 2605.95 | + *
Thu 6 Sep 07 . | #. | 2614.32 | + *
Fri 7 Sep 07 # . I . | 2565.70 + . *
Mon 10 Sep 07 # I . | 2559.11 |-. *
Tue 11 Sep 07 . I #. | 2597.47 | - *
Wed 12 Sep 07 . #I . | 2592.07 | - *
Thu 13 Sep 07 . I# . | 2601.05 | - *
Fri 14 Sep 07 . #I . | 2602.18 |-. *
Mon 17 Sep 07 #. I . | 2581.66 |-. *
Tue 18 Sep 07 . | . # | 2651.66 + . *
Wed 19 Sep 07 . | . # | 2666.48 |+. *
Thu 20 Sep 07 . |# . | 2654.29 |+. *
Fri 21 Sep 07 . | . # | 2671.22 | + *
Mon 24 Sep 07 . I# . | 2667.95 | .+ *
Tue 25 Sep 07 . I# . | 2683.45 | + *
Wed 26 Sep 07 . | # | 2699.03 | + *
Thu 27 Sep 07 . | # | 2709.59 | + *
Fri 28 Sep 07 . I# . | 2701.50 |+. *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline
lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces:NEXT ISSUE - is scheduled to appear in October 2007.