SUMMARY - "PIG":
The Contrarian's View is published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. Material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet through the World-Wide Web service at Assumption College. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, Open URL http://nick.assumption.edu. Mailed paper subscriptions, one year for $39 to The Contrarian's View, 132 Moreland Street, Worcester, Massachusetts 01609. There is a limit of 50 paid subscribers at one time; please check for availability before sending any money. Sorry, Visa and Mastercard are not available. Overseas subscription rate, U.S. $54. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! ISSN 1536-4429 Phone: (508) 757-2881
I recalled the film when, during Florida vacation, my wife and I visited a friend who recently relocated from Worcester, the financial backwater of America, to central Florida. Using a modest inheritance for a down payment, he bought an almost-new 3,000 square foot house, two storeys (unusual for Florida) with a screened-in, heated and lighted kidney-shaped swimming pool. He financed it with a no-income, no-asset-verification mortgage (because he is self-employed as a concert promoter), and he also used a bundle of credit-card debt to finance the move and to relocate his business. (And this was during a "recession"!)
During our visit, my wife was (of course) comparing our aging Worcester abode with this rather elegant and comfortable (though not yet fully furnished) Florida mini-palace.... and wondering how someone with such an erratic income could pull it off. "Debt", he said. We don't believe in going into debt for purchases, she said, we even pay cash for our cars. Really?, he said. You should try living in debt, it works very well.
And there you have it, the "crime" without the consequences. Those of us old enough to have parents who were scarred by the Depression learned that debt is "evil", to be incurred only when necessary and to be paid off as quickly as is practicable.
If you don't? The consequences are.... well, there aren't any. It just costs a little more to live, that's all, because of the carrying costs of the debt. The average American family carries more than $8,000 in credit card debt - I call this "foolish debt", because of the high interest charges - but even many who are careful with credit cards will still borrow to send kids to college (the system almost forces you to borrow for college expenses), borrow for a big home, borrow for cars, borrow to save money for retirement, borrow, borrow....
Unless you are one of the unfortunate few to lose your source of income in a recession, there is no penalty unless you overdo it and borrow more than you can reasonably service. More families are overdoing it lately, as the number of personal bankruptcies rises, but as a whole families' abilities to carry debt have actually improved a bit since the mid-1980s because of the persistent (Fed-induced) decline in interest rates.
No problemo, right? Well, not quite. There is an assumption here.... that we will never again see times as tough as the 1930s, or perhaps even as tough as the mid-1970s (or the early 1980s in the energy patch). This is the promise of centrally-managed fiat money: Your friendly Uncle Al (or whoever heads the Fed) will always be there with more dough to bail us out of whatever pickle.... carmaker or defense-contractor failure, currency crisis, foreign bond default, S&L shenanigans, derivatives collapse, stock-market bubble deflating, war.... comes our way.
Since World War II, it's worked. Even when the central bankers goof, as in Japan in 1989, times get tougher but nothing of the magnitude of the 1930s.
So the problem is, if there is no penalty for (what I would deem to be) excessive borrowing, then people will take on infinite risk to borrow, up to the amount of carrying costs (interest payments) they're willing to bear. The entire history of U.S. credit growth since the Depression, with memories of those hard times fading into the distance, has been of the system (both borrowers and lenders) engaging in increasingly risky loans and in taking on increasing leverage in financial transactions. Along the way, the government ends up implicitly guaranteeing larger and larger amounts of the nation's debt load. (Think.... U.S. and agency bonds, which is debt in the hands of the public; student loans; securitized mortgages through Fannie Mae; the fictitious Social security "surplus"; bank deposits.)
Do you suspect, as I do, that even the U.S. government will end up guaranteeing more debt and making more promises than it will be able to keep if a sudden adverse circumstance should occur? I believe that some day, the whole debt balloon will blow up in our faces, because history tells us so; this is how all previous fiat-financed debt binges have met their demise, from the French assignats of the 1720s to the Weimar Republic of the 1920s. Or maybe not, maybe I'm just hearing Depression-era ghosts whispering in my ear, "Watch out! We've warned you".
But if you don't think the whole debt structure will collapse of its own weight someday, then you must accept the alternative explanation, which is: Central bankers have, within a century, radically altered human nature, which in all other spheres changes only very slowly, over millennia. Also, its corollary: A little fascism benefits all of us.
Even if you accept my point of view, that the Fed will deliver up a superdepression someday, you must also recognize that in the meantime a great many people.... a generation, perhaps even two generations of Americans.... will escape the consequences of their foolish actions. I have had friends who were born during or shortly World War II and who have died in the past few years, who lived lives of debt (by the standards of their time) and never suffered the consequences; indeed, they lived lives of comfort. Some of them even outlived their children, so there's a lot of people who have never had their borrowing excesses "corrected" by a severe economic crunch.
When at some still-unpredictable future time the biomass hits the fan and the economy collapses under the debt burden, the older folks may indeed recall the hard-time horror stories of the 1930s passed down by their parents; but the people just starting out in life won't have a clue as to what hit them. They will have to suffer the consequences of the foolishness of the generation or two which preceded, and they will acrimoniously point their fingers at the guilty and say, "Why did you do this to us?"
My view might just be shared by that well-known wizard of Oz himself, Alan Greenspan (who certainly is in a position to know), who said before Congress on February 27 of this year, ...in years past.... there's been considerable evidence that fiat currencies have been mismanaged in general and that inflation has been too often the result.... there is some evidence that we're learning that lesson - learning how to manage fiat currency. I've always had some considerable skepticism about whether that in a long run can succeed, but I must say to you the evidence of recent decades is that it has been succeeding. Whether that continues is a forecast which I can't really project on.
He might just as well have said, "Help! I'm trapped by the system I have nurtured!"
Greenspan's real qualification is that he can be trusted never to rock the establishment's boat. He has long positioned himself in the very middle of the economic spectrum. He is, like most other long-time Republican economists, a conservative Keynesian, which in these days is almost indistinguishable from the liberal Keynesians in the Democratic camp. In fact, his views are virtually the same as Paul Volcker, also a conservative Keynesian. Which means that he wants moderate deficits and tax increases, and will loudly worry about inflation as he pours on increases in the money supply. - Murray Rothbard [1987]
Imagine that Greenspan was an agent of a foreign country that wanted to destroy the economy of the USA. How would he do that? The answer is: by doing exactly the same things that he is doing right now. Continuous, explosive growth in the money supply, letting the banks go out on flimsier and flimsier limbs of less and less reserves on more and more risky ventures, failing to act at signs of inflation, actively abetting a bizarre over-valuation of stocks, bonds and housing, selling the only fungible real asset (gold) of the country, countenancing a monstrously large, intrusive government, and responding to inquiries concerning these actions of the Fed with obtuse, convoluted non-explanations. Hopefully, he is just a very, very bad Fed chairman. Although the results will be exactly the same. Ugh. - Richard Daughty
I sit here looking at what the Federal Reserve System and the Bank of Japan are doing to their respective economies, and I conclude that the same old policy is still in force. The central bankers have created a debt monster that can only be fed with endless currency expansion. Inflation is their only available policy to solve the nation's macroeconomic problems. It's "Little Shop of Horrors" in action: "Feed me, Alan." - Gary North
The entire world economy depends on Americans' ability to continue spending money they don't have. For it is Americans who buy the world's production. America is the world's biggest consumer. If it ever stops spending... the whole world goes into recession. In short, the American economy has become too big to fail. - Bill Bonner
The consensus is that the United States economy has bottomed, is turning around, and the market hit a low on Sept. 11. That analysis puts us in a bull market that will carry over the next few years. I do not believe that. I do not think we are in an economic situation that allows for a sustainable recovery. Last year there was a refinancing opportunity where interest rates were lowered and the consumer could cash out and spend. But long-term interest rates have risen, and therefore the window for lower interest rates is spent. Moreover, energy prices declined and left more money to spend for other goods and services. But energy prices are rising again. Thirdly, there was a tax cut last year that will not be repeated this year. There will be a big disappointment as people realize the recovery is spent. The market is smelling it and selling off. I think by midyear the markets in the U.S. and Europe will be at new lows. There will be another big rally in the second half, then another decline. That is the way markets decline.... I think we are in a structural bear market that will last for five to 10 years. It is not a nice picture. But it will not go straight down. From time to time there will be fiscal and monetary stimulus. Markets will get oversold and will rise for awhile. Markets will zigzag downward. It will not be over until stocks trade at attractive valuation levels. - Felix Zulauf
I have serious doubts about the widely talked-about economic recovery. After all, it's quite common that after an initial contraction in GDP, a recovery follows for a quarter or two before the economy slumps once again. - Marc Faber
The worst part of the bear market in stocks is still before us, and it will essentially involve the wholesale destruction of the pseudo-financial wealth that the bubble economy has created in the past years. - Kurt Richebacher
It's going to take years before the psychological expectations that were built up over the last decade to wash away. We're not likely to get the final bottom until everyone is so utterly fed-up with the stock market that nobody is looking for a bottom - and nobody will care when it arrives. The big difference between the market now and that of 1941, however, is simply value. After Pearl Harbor it dropped so little because it was still at depression-era levels. That's totally the opposite of today's situation. And, after a while, it was fairly clear how and when the Axis would be defeated. Whereas now it's completely unclear not only how and when the enemy will be defeated (notwithstanding the surprisingly quick collapse of al-Qaida in Afghanistan), but even exactly who the enemy really is. I believe, therefore, that we're still in the early stages of what is likely to prove one of the worst bear markets of all time. How long and deep will this bear market be? Nobody has a crystal ball. But the stock market fluctuates around a mean established by fundamental values, alternately going above and below the trend line. Based on how high it's run in recent years, I suspect we'll see something a lot more ugly and traumatic than just a bear market in stocks before it's over. Stocks, bonds, the dollar and the economy itself are likely to get whacked in a way you see only once in a lifetime. If you're lucky. There's every chance we're looking at the Greater Depression, and I suspect it's going to be worse than even I think. - Doug Casey
With the Japanese government committed to a weak yen, it is likely they pursue "reform" so as to avoid increasing the price of the yen. It is just as possible that they inject capital into their banks in such amounts that not only do the banks not need to repatriate dollars and turn them into yen so as to shore up their balance sheets, but that they have excess yen to purchase dollars (and perhaps euros) to hedge against a dropping yen. This, along with the rest of the world dealing with the huge deflationary pressures running rampant throughout Asia, could actually create a stronger dollar. Indeed, it could be a bubble. We all know what happens to bubbles. - John Mauldin
My favorite intermediate-term contrary indicator on gold is warming up. The assets in the
Rydex Precious Metals Fund have ranged from about $25 million to $90 million the past two
years. Assets are back down to $44.1 million, towards the low end. Yet the fund's NAV is just
8% off its recent high and up 65% from its low of late 2000. Obviously, the 22-year bear
market has conditioned investors to sell rallies - that's very bullish. Meanwhile, just 1.25% of
total "sector fund" assets are gold-oriented - only $2.2 billion worth. By comparison, tech
and telecom funds hold $70.6 billion, or 39.7% of all sector fund assets.... We're still in the
top of the first inning on the gold rally. - Kevin Duffy
By comparison and excluding dividends, extrapolating the popular averages to the end of the year gives us: Dow, +15.2%; S&P 500, -0.4%; NYSE, +7.2%; NASDAQ, -21.6% .
However, beware of extrapolation! I expect stocks to perform better overall for the rest of the year as investors become aware the Fed really has succeeded in mitigating most of the fallout from the partly-popped bubble (at least for the time being), especially toward the end of the year and early in 2003.
For the time being, I've given up on bonds. They can continue to be held for their yield.... but bond funds, which will reflect Fed interest-rate increases likely to come in the second half of the year, along with an increased demand for borrowed money as the economy reheats, have been treading water for six months and are likely to continue doing so for awhile until heading downward later this year in the face of the rate hikes.
In my retirement funds, near the end of the month I switched my remaining bond money mostly into TIAA Traditional, which currently yields 6.5% for new money (in the SRA), and the residual few percent into the CREF Equity Index fund. At the end of the month, my retirement was invested: 28.7% in TIAA Traditional, 18.9% in TIAA Real Estate, and 52.3% in CREF Equity Index.... no bond or money-market funds.
Out of curiosity, I decided to look back and see how my performance of the past few years compared with the bubbleheads. The bubble essentially began in 1995, after a brief bear market (except in the popular averages) in 1994. At the beginning of 1995, the CREF Stock unit was $69.69; at the end of March 2002 (7.25 years), it's $163.40. For the buy-and-hold forever crowd, that's a 134.5% gain. In my retirement funds, which were mostly in money market or bond funds for the period, I made 43.7%. So the bubbleheads are still ahead by a wide margin.
However, at the end of March 2000, the CREF Stock unit was $213.37. In the past two years,
it has dropped 23.5%. The "stocks are the only place to be" crew will need to see stocks rise
31% (think, Dow 10,300 to Dow 13,500) just to break even with where they once were.
Original cost (adjusted): $ 4,998.21
Present value: $ 4,377.13
Increase: $ -621.08 [-12.43%]
The performance of this portfolio and its predecessors ("Hedger's Delight", "Present and Future Income", "Crapshooter's Folly") from January 1987 to the present is -0.70%, for a compound annual rate of return of -0.04%. COMMENT on "Phoenix": There is no change from the last issue (cash balance is not up to date).
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $ 9,899.00
Present value: $16,044.90
Increase: $ 6,145.90 [+62.09%]
COMMENT on "PIG": There is no change from the last issue.
C. Roth rollover IRA - real portfolio, includes commissions:
SUMMARY - IRA:
Original (1983-86) cost: $ 8,326.19
Present value: $10,831.55
Increase: $ 2,505.36 [+30.09%]
The performance of this portfolio (including its predecessors) from January 1, 1987 to the present is
1.24%, for a compound annual rate of return of -0.08%.
D. CREF Pension plan; I switch between indexed stock/bond/money funds:
Date Sold Bought
13Mar1992 stock @ 56.65 MM @ 13.41
29Apr1992 MM @ 13.48 bond @ 31.19
19Jun1992 bond @ 32.14 MM @ 13.55
29Jun1992 MM @ 13.57 stock @ 56.74
24Jul1992 stock @ 56.76 MM @ 13.61
29Oct1992 MM @ 13.72 stock @ 58.61
23Dec1992 stock @ 61.48 MM @ 13.78
16Jan1995 MM @ 14.83 equity-index @ 26.44
20Jan1995 eq-index @ 26.19 MM @ 14.84
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 bond@47.56 (27.17%)
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 i-i bond@26.12 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 bond@ 48.84 MM@17.52 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 I-I bond@ 26.23 MM@17.52(27.17%)
16Jun1998 MM@ 17.84 TIAA Traditional (45.87%)
23Sep1999 MM@18.99 I-I bond@27.56 (53.32%)
17-18May2000 rate adjustment to 7.25% in SRA
12-13Jul2000 rate adjustment to 7.5% in SRA
8Jan2001 TIAA Traditional bond@58.62 [22.77%]
8Jan2001 TIAA Traditional eq-idx@75.79 [4.56%]
1Feb2001 i-i bond@31.78 eq-idx@80.84 [26.76%]
20Sep2001 bond@61.99 eq-idx@58.42 [2.44%]
21Nov2001 i-i bond@33.80 eq-idx@67.52 [4.35%]
11Dec2001 i-ibond@33.28 eq-idx@67.95 [6.19%]
17Dec2001 i-i bond@33.13 RlEst@168.75 [9.94%]
17Dec2001 bond@61,54 RlEst@168.75 [9.26%]
31Dec2001 i-i bond@33.50 eq-idx@68.74 [8.21%]
25Mar2002 bond@62.43 TIAA Traditional [9.13%]
26Mar2002 bond@62.63 eq-idx@68.76 [3.39%]
Values, 31Mar2002: stock, 163.40; equity-index, 69.32; MM, 21.39; bond, 62.51;
inflation-indexed bond, 33.95; real estate, 169.46; TIAA current yield in SRA,
about 7% (new money at 6.5% through February 28, 2003)
Gain, 1988: 18.91%; 1989: 14.48%; 1990: 8.28%; 1991: 27.93%; 1992: 10.20%; 1993: 3.08%; 1994: 4.07%; 1995: 4.80%; 1996: 5.28%; 1997: 5.38%; 1998: 5.72%; 1999: 5.12%; 2000: 9.99%; 2001: 1.11%
Gain, January 1 throughMarch 31, 2002: 0.97% (3.86% annual rate of return)
Total gain since January 1, 1988 (14.25 years): 223.43%
Compound annual rate of return: 8.59% (My long-term target: in excess of 10%)
Gain shown excludes the impact of additional monthly cash contributions.
Buying CREF stock on January 1, 1988 and holding it gained 422.38%, for a compound annual rate of
return of 11.46%.
COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend":
The BUY on November 1 remains in effect. Note that
"Timer's Trend" remained bullish through the corrections of the quarter, indicating that we're
still in a bull maket for those stocks most directly influenced by Fed actions.
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________ Thu 1 Nov 01 . | #. }| 9263.90 | - * Fri 2 Nov 01 . | #. | 9323.54 | - * Mon 5 Nov 01 . | .# | 9441.03 + . * Tue 6 Nov 01 . | .# | 9591.12 | + * Wed 7 Nov 01 . | #. | 9554.37 | + * Thu 8 Nov 01 . | # | 9587.52 | .+ * Fri 9 Nov 01 . | #. | 9608.00 | .+ * Mon 12 Nov 01 . | #. | 9554.37 | + * Tue 13 Nov 01 . | . # | 9750.95 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~* Wed 14 Nov 01 . | . # | 9823.61 | .+ * Thu 15 Nov 01 . | #. | 9872.39 | .+ * Fri 16 Nov 01 . | # | 9866.99 | .+ * Mon 19 Nov 01 . | . # | 9976.46 | . + * Tue 20 Nov 01 . |# . | 9901.38 | .+ * Wed 21 Nov 01 . # . | 9834.68 | + * Fri 23 Nov 01 . | . # | 9959.71 | .+ * Mon 26 Nov 01 . | .# | 9982.75 | .+ * Tue 27 Nov 01 . | #. | 9872.60 | + * Wed 28 Nov 01 # | . | 9711.86 | + * Thu 29 Nov 01 . |# . | 9829.42 | + * Fri 30 Nov 01 . | #. | 9851.56 |+. * Mon 3 Dec 01 . |# . | 9763.96 + . * Tue 4 Dec 01 . | . # | 9893.84 |+. * Wed 5 Dec 01 . | . # |10114.29 | .+ * Thu 6 Dec 01 . | # |10099.14 | .+ * Fri 7 Dec 01 . | #. |10049.46 | .+ * Mon 10 Dec 01 .# | . | 9921.45 | .+ * Tue 11 Dec 01 . #| . | 9888.37 |+. * Wed 12 Dec 01 . #| . | 9894.81 + . * Thu 13 Dec 01 . #I . | 9766.45 |-. * Fri 14 Dec 01 . & . | 9811.15 |-. * Mon 17 Dec 01 . | #. | 9891.87 |-. * Tue 18 Dec 01 . | # | 9998.39 + . * Wed 19 Dec 01 . | #. |10070.49 |+. * Thu 20 Dec 01 . |# . | 9985.19 |+. * Fri 21 Dec 01 . | # |10035.34 | + * Mon 24 Dec 01 . | # |10035.34 | + * Wed 26 Dec 01 . | . # |10088.14 | + * Thu 27 Dec 01 . | . # |10131.31 | .+ * Fri 28 Dec 01 . | . # |10136.99 | . + * Mon 31 Dec 01 . | # |10021.50 | . + * Wed 2 Jan 02 . | .# |10073.40 | . + * Thu 3 Jan 02 . | . # |10172.14 | . + * Fri 4 Jan 02 . | . # |10259.74 | . + * Mon 7 Jan 02 . | # |10197.05 | . + * Tue 8 Jan 02 . | #. |10150.55 | . + * Wed 9 Jan 02 . | # |10094.09 | .+ * Thu 10 Jan 02 . | # |10067.86 | .+ * Fri 11 Jan 02 . |# . | 9987.53 | + * Mon 14 Jan 02 . # . | 9891.42 |+. * Tue 15 Jan 02 . | #. | 9924.15 |+. * Wed 16 Jan 02 . #| . | 9712.27 |+. * Thu 17 Jan 02 . | # | 9850.04 |+. * Fri 18 Jan 02 . |# . | 9771.85 |+. * Tue 22 Jan 02 . # . | 9713.80 |+. * Wed 23 Jan 02 . | .# | 9730.96 |+. * Thu 24 Jan 02 . | . # | 9796.07 | + * Fri 25 Jan 02 . | .# | 9840.08 | + * Mon 28 Jan 02 . | # | 9865.75 | .+ * Tue 29 Jan 02 .# I . | 9618.24 | + * Wed 30 Jan 02 . | #. | 9762.86 | + * Thu 31 Jan 02 . | . # | 9920.00 | + * Fri 1 Feb 02 . | #. | 9907.26 | + * Mon 4 Feb 02 .# I . | 9684.09 |+. * Tue 5 Feb 02 .# I . | 9685.43 |+. * Wed 6 Feb 02 .# I . | 9653.39 + . * Thu 7 Feb 02 . & . | 9625.44 |-. * Fri 8 Feb 02 . I .# | 9744.24 |-. * Mon 11 Feb 02 . | . # | 9884.78 |+. * Tue 12 Feb 02 . |# . | 9863.74 |+. * Wed 13 Feb 02 . | .# | 9989.67 | .+ * Thu 14 Feb 02 . | #. |10001.99 | .+ * Fri 15 Feb 02 . |# . | 9903.04 | + * Tue 19 Feb 02 # I . | 9745.14 |+. * Wed 20 Feb 02 . | #. | 9941.17 |+. * Thu 21 Feb 02 . & . | 9834.68 + . * Fri 22 Feb 02 . | #. | 9968.15 + . * Mon 25 Feb 02 . | . # |10145.71 |+. * Tue 26 Feb 02 . | .# |10115.26 | + * Wed 27 Feb 02 . | . # |10127.58 | .+ * Thu 28 Feb 02 . | # |10106.13 | . + * Fri 1 Mar 02 . | . # |10368.86 |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~* Mon 4 Mar 02 . | . # |10586.82 | . + * Tue 5 Mar 02 . | .# |10433.41 | . + * Wed 6 Mar 02 . | . # |10574.29 @| . + * Thu 7 Mar 02 . | .# |10525.37 @| . + * Fri 8 Mar 02 . | . # |10572.49 @| . + * Mon 11 Mar 02 . | . # |10611.24 | . + * Tue 12 Mar 02 . | . # |10632.35 @| . + * Wed 13 Mar 02 . | #. |10501.85 | . + * Thu 14 Mar 02 . | # |10517.14 | . + * Fri 15 Mar 02 . | . # |10607.23 | . + * Mon 18 Mar 02 . | .# |10577.75 | . + * Tue 19 Mar 02 . | . # |10635.25 | . + * Wed 20 Mar 02 . # . |10501.57 | .+ * Thu 21 Mar 02 . | #. |10479.84 | .+ * Fri 22 Mar 02 . | #. |10427.67 | + * Mon 25 Mar 02 .# I . |10281.67 |+. * Tue 26 Mar 02 . | #. |10353.36 + . * Wed 27 Mar 02 . | . # |10426.91 |+. * Thu 28 Mar 02 . | . # |10403.94 | + * ========================================================================
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": At the end of March, this NASDAQ indicator
was whipsawing again. Clearly this has to improve.... and it may take awhile.... before we can
truly say that the "new bull market" is underway big-time.
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND ____________________________
Thu 1 Nov 01 . | # | 1746.30 + . *
Fri 2 Nov 01 . #| . | 1745.73 |-. *
Mon 5 Nov 01 . | .# | 1793.65 + . *
Tue 6 Nov 01 . | .# }| 1835.08 | + *
Wed 7 Nov 01 . | # [| 1837.53 | + *
Thu 8 Nov 01 . |# . | 1827.77 | + *
Fri 9 Nov 01 . |# . | 1828.48 | + *
Mon 12 Nov 01 . |# . | 1840.13 | + *
Tue 13 Nov 01 . | . # ]| 1892.11 | + *
Wed 14 Nov 01 . | # | 1903.19 | + *
Thu 15 Nov 01 . | #. | 1900.57 | + *
Fri 16 Nov 01 . | #. | 1898.58 | + *
Mon 19 Nov 01 . | . # | 1934.42 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 20 Nov 01 . #| . | 1880.51 | + *
Wed 21 Nov 01 . | #. | 1875.05 | + *
Fri 23 Nov 01 . | . # | 1903.20 | .+ *
Mon 26 Nov 01 . | . # | 1941.23 | . + *
Tue 27 Nov 01 . | # | 1935.97 | .+ *
Wed 28 Nov 01 . #| . | 1887.97 | .+ *
Thu 29 Nov 01 . | .# | 1933.26 | . + *
Fri 30 Nov 01 . |# . | 1930.58 | + *
Mon 3 Dec 01 . #| . | 1904.90 |+. *
Tue 4 Dec 01 . | . # | 1963.10 |+. *
Wed 5 Dec 01 . | . # | 2046.84 | .+ *
Thu 6 Dec 01 . | .# | 2054.27 | .+ *
Fri 7 Dec 01 . |# . | 2021.26 | .+ *
Mon 10 Dec 01 . |# . | 1992.12 | .+ *
Tue 11 Dec 01 . | .# | 2001.93 | .+ *
Wed 12 Dec 01 . | #. | 2011.38 | + *
Thu 13 Dec 01 . # . | 1946.51 |+. *
Fri 14 Dec 01 . | #. | 1953.17 |+. *
Mon 17 Dec 01 . | .# | 1987.45 | + *
Tue 18 Dec 01 . | .# | 2004.76 | + *
Wed 19 Dec 01 . |# . | 1982.89 | + *
Thu 20 Dec 01 .# I . | 1918.54 |+. *
Fri 21 Dec 01 . | . # | 1945.83 | + *
Mon 24 Dec 01 . | # | 1944.48 | + *
Wed 26 Dec 01 . | . # | 1960.70 | + *
Thu 27 Dec 01 . | . # | 1976.42 | .+ *
Fri 28 Dec 01 . | . # | 1987.26 | . + *
Mon 31 Dec 01 . | # | 1950.40 | . + *
Wed 2 Jan 02 . | . # | 1979.25 | . + *
Thu 3 Jan 02 . | . # | 2044.27 | . + *
Fri 4 Jan 02 . | . # | 2059.38 | . + *
Mon 7 Jan 02 . | # | 2037.10 | . + *
Tue 8 Jan 02 . | . # | 2055.74 | . + *
Wed 9 Jan 02 . | .# | 2044.89 | . + *
Thu 10 Jan 02 . | .# | 2047.24 | . + *
Fri 11 Jan 02 . |# . | 2022.46 | .+ *
Mon 14 Jan 02 . & . | 1990.74 | + *
Tue 15 Jan 02 . I # | 2000.91 | + *
Wed 16 Jan 02 .# I . | 1944.44 |+. *
Thu 17 Jan 02 . I . # | 1985.82 |+. *
Fri 18 Jan 02 . #I . {| 1930.34 |+. *
Tue 22 Jan 02 .# I . | 1882.53 + . *
Wed 23 Jan 02 . I .# | 1922.38 + . *
Thu 24 Jan 02 . I . # ]| 1942.58 | + *
Fri 25 Jan 02 . I #. [| 1937.70 |+. *
Mon 28 Jan 02 . I # ]| 1943.91 | + *
Tue 29 Jan 02 .# I . [| 1892.99 | + *
Wed 30 Jan 02 . I# . | 1913.44 |+. *
Thu 31 Jan 02 . I . # | 1934.03 | + *
Fri 1 Feb 02 . I# . | 1911.24 |+. *
Mon 4 Feb 02 # I . | 1855.53 + . *
Tue 5 Feb 02 #. I . | 1838.52 |-. *
Wed 6 Feb 02 # I . | 1812.71 |-. *
Thu 7 Feb 02 #. I . | 1782.11 | .- *
Fri 8 Feb 02 . I # | 1818.88 | .- *
Mon 11 Feb 02 . I # | 1846.66 |-. *
Tue 12 Feb 02 . I# . | 1834.21 + . *
Wed 13 Feb 02 . I .# | 1859.16 |+. *
Thu 14 Feb 02 . & . | 1843.37 | + *
Fri 15 Feb 02 # I . | 1805.20 |+. *
Tue 19 Feb 02 # . I . | 1750.61 |-. *
Wed 20 Feb 02 . I# . | 1775.57 |-. *
Thu 21 Feb 02 # I . | 1716.24 | .- *
Fri 22 Feb 02 . I .# | 1724.54 | - *
Mon 25 Feb 02 . I # | 1769.88 |-. *
Tue 26 Feb 02 . I #. | 1766.86 |+. *
Wed 27 Feb 02 . I# . | 1751.88 |+. *
Thu 28 Feb 02 . #I . | 1731.49 |+. *
Fri 1 Mar 02 . I . # | 1802.74 | + *
Mon 4 Mar 02 . | . # | 1859.32 | + *
Tue 5 Mar 02 . | . # | 1866.29 | .+ *
Wed 6 Mar 02 . | . # }| 1890.40 | . + *
Thu 7 Mar 02 . | . # | 1881.63 | . + *
Fri 8 Mar 02 . | . # | 1929.67 | . + *
Mon 11 Mar 02 . | . # | 1929.49 | . + *
Tue 12 Mar 02 . # . | 1897.12 | . + *
Wed 13 Mar 02 . # . | 1862.03 | .+ *
Thu 14 Mar 02 . | #. | 1854.14 | + *
Fri 15 Mar 02 . | # | 1868.30 | + *
Mon 18 Mar 02 . | .# | 1877.06 |+. *
Tue 19 Mar 02 . | .# | 1880.87 | + *
Wed 20 Mar 02 . # . | 1832.87 | + *
Thu 21 Mar 02 . | . # | 1868.83 | .+ *
Fri 22 Mar 02 . | # | 1851.39 | .+ *
Mon 25 Mar 02 . & . {| 1812.49 | + *
Tue 26 Mar 02 . | # }| 1824.17 | + *
Wed 27 Mar 02 . | .# | 1826.75 | .+ *
Thu 28 Mar 02 . | . # | 1845.35 | .+ *
========================================================================
"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces: NEXT ISSUE - will appear in late April. /Nick Chase