The Contrarian's View is published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. Material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet through the World-Wide Web service at Assumption College. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, Open URL http://nick.assumption.edu. Mailed paper subscriptions, one year for $39 to The Contrarian's View, 132 Moreland Street, Worcester, Massachusetts 01609. There is a limit of 50 paid subscribers at one time; please check for availability before sending any money. Sorry, Visa and Mastercard are not available. Overseas subscription rate, U.S. $54. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! ISSN 1536-4429 Phone: (508) 757-2881
On the other hand, look what I could have done with my TIAA-CREF funds, and didn't: 100% in CREF Stock, -13.89% for the year; 100% in CREF Growth, -22.91%; 100% in CREF Equity Index, -11.73%; 100% in the money-market, +4.04%; 100% in bonds, +7.93%; 100% in inflation-indexed bonds, +7.67%; 100% in TIAA Real Estate, +6.29%. Hmmmm, in hindsight those bond funds look pretty good.
But, as you will recall, I made a major (about 25%) commitment to stocks in early February 2001, after it was clear that the Federal Reserve was going to aggressively ease, based on the historical evidence as shown in the table in the October 2001 issue, which I've updated and repeated on the next page. Turns out that was pretty close to the high for the year.... the CREF Equity Index unit value still isn't near to the $80-plus readings of last February. If anything, this demonstrates the value of diversification, and of shifting strategies over a period of time rather than all at once, just in case you turn out to be wrong (as I often am) or, maybe, too early (as I almost always am). So my yearly gain is in spite of my being too eager last February to ride the Fed's monetary easing. I attribute this gain largely to my recognizing that the V-shaped stock-market bottom triggered by the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center was a major bottom, and to increasing my exposure to stocks in my retirement funds to about half, over the last three months of the year, thereby riding the initial upward thrust of the nascent bull.
Looking back on the year, do I have any regrets about committing to stocks early in the year? Not really.... I did what seemed appropriate based on historical precedent, and I judge that the outcome was from my lack of experience with the Federal Reserve fighting the popping of the bubble.... first time ever it's been (mostly) successful. Next time, coming off a bubble, I will wait for more solid evidence of a bottom and will commit to stocks more slowly.... and I will likely trade in and out according to "Timer's Trend".
What I do regret is that the TIAA-CREF investment choices are somewhat limited. My choice would have been to commit to "value" stocks.... a fund mimicking the Russell 2000 index. Closest I could get was the CREF Equity Index fund, which mimics the Russell 3000. My second regret is not exiting inflation-indexed bonds quickly enough. In preparing this issue, I found on the TIAA-CREF website graphs of the performances of the various funds, and the inflation-indexed bond fund showed a parabolic rise in its unit value in late October. That's a big red warning flag to take your profits before the collapse, because a market which has a parabolic rise is usually dead thereafter for at least a few months, and sometimes for years. Once I did see that graph, I assure you, it was an important factor in my exiting all inflation-indexed bonds by the end of the year. The corporate bond fund had no such parabolic spike and the outlook for it is, I think, still mildly bullish.
The past two years certainly demonstrate how important it is to survive bear markets with your bull-market profits intact. If you rode one of those hotshot tech or Internet funds for a 300% gain over the three years 1998-2000, and then held on for the 70% loss that followed, you're down 10% from your initial investment after five years. And if it was an Internet fund, you're still invested in a sector that continues to disintegrate.
But even if you were conservatively invested, 2001 was still a bad year. Here are some other money-losing strategies for the year: Dow Industrials, -7.1%; S&P 500, -13.1%; NASDAQ, -21.1%; TheStreet.com Internet index, -35.8%; Wilshire 5000, -12.1% (dividends excluded for all indexes).
I've had several friends comment to me that they're going to take their year-end 401(k) statements and stuff them away, envelopes unopened. They simply don't want to get depressed by the carnage. (It's called de-ni-al.) After all, stocks always go up over the long term, right? (Wrong, but right at least for 2002.)
In the updated table we see that the aggressive Federal Reserve easing has not been as effective as most prior easing sequences.... stocks still remain lower six months after the sixth
easing, behavior which parallels 1929-1930. The permabears would have you believe that this
time will also turn out like the 1930s.... that a modest rally will transmogrify into the return of
the killer bear. I don't think so, not
this time. The Fed will win this one, though at the risk of reigniting (parts of) the bubble,
which is probably what will happen. This is not the 1930s; the Fed can keep the stock indexes
propped up by brute force, if need be, though that is not currently necessary. But just how
much "positive" we'll be at 63 weeks remains to be seen; I don't expect a significant increase
over January 2001.
The amounts per year are additive; that is, if you turn age 53 in 2006, you can put $20,000 of your salary into your 401(k), and another $5,000 into your IRA, for a total of $25,000 for the year. With your employer's match in the 401(k) or 403(b), after a few years you could really be sitting on a pile of dough.... if you don't blow it in stocks when the next Fed-induced bubble crashes to Earth. Oh, you say that you'd like to have some money left over to take home, for living expenses? Sorry, can't help you there.
Of course, what these new higher maximums mean is that if you have savings set aside outside your retirement plans and the taxes are eating you alive (too much short-term trading in your brokerage account, maybe?), you can put a big part of your paycheck into the tax deferred plans, and draw upon your savings for living expenses.... in effect, transferring your assets from taxable to tax-deferred status.
If you have worked for an educational institution - typically, a college or university - for at least 15 years, and you didn't put too much of your own money into your 403(b) during those years (generally, less than $5,000 per year) you may be able to increase the 403(b) limits shown in the table by up to $3,000. Ask your employer to do the calculations for you, if you're interested.
* Cost-of-living adjustments in $500 increments, beginning in the years shown. For example, if the CPI should rise by 11.6% in 2009, the maximum IRA contribution for individuals 50 or older for 2009 would be ($5,000 X 1.116) = $5,580, truncated down to $5,500, plus $1,000 (not indexed) = $6,500 for the maximum.
Given that earnings continue to be meaningless.... there can be no question the mania remains in progress. Nothing has changed; stocks are still more important than the economy. $2.45 are still spent on trading for every $1 spent on the purchase of goods or services in the economy! - Alan M. Newman
In my opinion, the bull market in stocks isn't a classic bubble, as Mr. Greenspan has suggested this year. In fact, it is more accurate to say that a very narrow new economy bull market has masked a very broad old economy bear market since the middle of 1998. Rather than one bubble in the new economy market, there have been several bubbles that are now bursting, or losing some air. I see this as a healthy development that is now pumping some oxygen back into the undervalued old economy stocks... - Ed Yardeni
Being a bull instantly makes one part of the "in" crowd. If you go to a cocktail party and say that Intel is one of the best Information Age companies in history and will continue to change the world as we know it, and you claim that its stock price is going to rocket, you will instantly gain many friends and comrades in capital arms. Being a bull is easy, kind of like way back when you were in high school and as long as you did what the crowd did, you were accepted as one of them. On the other hand, if folks perceive you as one of those "gloom and doomer" bears, you are "out" and will even be less popular than Osama bin Laden in New York City. If you go to a cocktail party and say that Intel is one of the best Information Age companies in history and will continue to change the world as we know it, but you express the slightest concern that it is currently trading near 79x earnings, people will scatter with extreme prejudice as if you had the dreaded smallpox. - Adam Hamilton
U.S. consumer installment debt as a percentage of disposable personal income stands at an all-time high of 21.9%. That fact is stunning all by itself. What makes it even more stunning is that this debt reading stands at an all-time high near what most economists now believe to be the END of a recession! ....at the end of the 1970, 1974 and 1982 recessions, this indebtedness measure had fallen to below 16%, as consumers paid down their debts. Not this time...not when our nation's leaders have so successfully schooled us that the road to perpetual prosperity is paved with perpetual debt. We have learned our lessons well. Now if everyone will simply take out their credit cards and buy something, we can get this recovery started. - Eric Fry
The Fed is encouraging households and businesses to take on more debt when the economy is already weakening under an excessive debt burden. It's putting off the judgment day. - Paul Kasriel [director of economic research, Northern Trust Corp.]
So, the debate over string-pushing [by the Federal Reserve] is really a debate over commercial bank solvency. If there is a widespread break in the banking payments system -- the debt repayment system -- fiat money may not be sufficient to reverse a falling economy. This is not the situation in the United States today. It may be next year, but it isn't yet. - Gary North
Plain and simple, the "more than $4 trillion" of supposedly surplus cash [on the sidelines, waiting to be reinvested in stocks] has been offset to a significant extent by the ongoing and still largely invisible crash in home equity... Homeowners are refinancing based on appraisals that reflect last Spring's peak in home prices rather than their current, recessionary prices. In my neighborhood, for instance, homes appraised as recently as August for $450,000 are actually selling for around $350,000. Multiply that times a thousand neighborhoods across the U.S. and the $4 trillion is about as real as the Social Security surplus. - Rick Ackerman
This is a major bear market. The primary trend is now down...the tide has turned. - Richard Russell
Once stock prices reach the point at which it is hard to value them by any logical methodology, stocks will be bought as they were in the late 1920s - not for investment, but to be unloaded at a still higher price. The ensuing break would cause a panic psychology that cannot be summarily altered or reversed by easy-money policies. - Alan Greenspan [1959]
Because stocks now pay puny dividends, they will have to be sold to pay retirement incomes to boomers, but there has never been a due diligence analysis that explains who will buy all those stocks when the boomers and their employers shift from buying to selling. This analysis cannot be done with typical financial projections based on historic or assumed rates of return.... Boomers are being told that stocks are outstanding retirement investments because they have done so well for the past 75 years. But an analysis of the S&P 500 history for the years 1926-2000 shows something different. During the first 56 years, up through 1981, dividends provided half of the total returns, and gains were negative during a third of the time. Then, during the next 19 years, starting in 1982, gains were more than five times greater than dividends.... It is a mistake to project that the future of stocks will be a continuation of the most recent 19 years, or maybe even an average of the full 75 years. Instead, the period since 1982 is a warning to expect just the opposite when boomers shift from buying to selling. A sustained bear market is highly likely and a depression can result. - Thornton "Tip" Parker
Gentlemen, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over. - Herbert Hoover [June 1930]
Most politicians and regulators don't understand deflation. They don't know what's hitting them - let alone what to do about it. Even Alan Greenspan will be helpless to stop the onslaught. Sure, he has the power to pump billions of dollars into the economy. But unless businesses and consumers spend or invest those dollars, it goes dead - like a blood transfusion without a heartbeat.... The Fed can pump in another trillion dollars and drop the Fed funds rate to zero...and it still wouldn't be enough to spark a real recovery in the economy. - Martin Weiss
The high-tech sector is in recession because the naive, inexperienced kids who ran the companies thought that investment bankers were a bottomless pit of money to fund projects that had no visible market. For years, the venture capitalists conformed to the script. The best and the brightest were all greed-driven, gullible fools. - Gary North
The head jackass in DC, as far as the currency supply and general ruination of our economy at the present time, happens to be Alan Greenspan, whose Maginot Line of interest reductions, and "liquidity infusions" has had absolutely no effect on the foundering US juggernaut. Our economy is toast, or will be eventually. A client of mine in Hawaii recently quoted a great phrase: "Just because it is inevitable, doesn't mean it's imminent." This is true. While I write with strong words, and my predictions will surely come true, it may not be tomorrow. It might not be till next month, year, or even decade, but they will come true. - Don Stott
Mr. Magoo and his Federal Reserve munchkins believe that economic salvation will be found in mortgage rates below 6%.... The plan is to get Americans to use what little equity they have left in their homes to finance a consumption splurge. I'm not kidding; this is what the best and brightest economists have come up with. - Doug McIntosh
Economists and the financial press have failed to sound the alarm as a - so far unprecedented - curse hit the world: The rate of interest in Japan started plunging to zero. While the public is kept in the dark, authorities are trying desperate measures, including the encouragement of and subsidy to the yen-carry trade, in the hope to relieve the downward pressure on the rate of interest in Japan through the sale of Japanese bonds - to no avail. The yen carry trade is the very mechanism whereby the deflationary tumor metastasizes across the Pacific. What it does is merely to shift the downward pressure on the rate of interest from Japan to the United States. From this vantage point, the gold-carry trade is also highly deflationary as it also contributes to the downward pressure. The world has been hit by the greatest deflationary iceberg in economic history, and the captains of the international monetary system are busy rearranging the deck-chairs, telling passengers that the boat is unsinkable. - Antal E. Fekete
When citizens cannot produce their own medium of exchange, but only borrow a fictitious one from a privileged group allowed to create it from nothing, their enslavement is complete, though it be relatively painless and unappreciated. Happy contented slaved are the best, and most productive! - Paul Hein
It doesn't pay to hedge [gold] anymore. The hedgers have borrowed, on record, 4,700 tonnes
of gold from the central banks, which will have to returned over the next, let's say, seven
years. So that is 700 tonnes that is not going to hit the market...and production is coming off
as well, by a factor of about 200 to 300 tonnes over the next three years. So you are looking at
almost 1,000 tonnes of supply [per year] that is not going to hit the market.... At some point,
this is really going to bite the price. If you look at gold over the past 10 years, the average
price is $350. I think it is going back there. -Pierre Lassonde [Franco-Nevada co-CEO]
What's not to like about this bull market? Well, stock valuations are not cheap.... in fact, they remain historically expensive. Dividends are minuscule. Margin debt was not corrected to levels typical of bear-market bottoms. Small investors didn't capitulate (many were simply wiped out before they could capitulate). Investors didn't become as pessimistic as they typically do at the tail end of bear markets, and do in fact hold a higher percentage of their portfolios (about two-thirds) in stocks than is typical at bear-market bottoms.
But none of these factors precludes the return of the bull.... any more so than they did in the prior bubble, spring of 1995 to March of 2000. The new bull means that stocks will again progress from overvalued to ridiculously overvalued to obscenely overvalued. And this time around, we have experience from riding (or not riding) the prior bubble, and we know that even though this will be a momentum-driven bull devoid of value, it can be played with relative safety as long as the Fed is easing or neutral and as long as "Timer's Trend" gives the green light.
I'm amused by the permabears who keep looking backward to justify their bearish outlook.
Recession headlines in the media? They're always worst when the economy is bottoming and
is on the way to recovery. Excessive P/E ratios? Nearly meaningless in a recession, which
companies use as an excuse to write off years' worth of mistakes (to the benefit of future
years' earnings). Rising unemployment? A classic lagging indicator. The stock market has
already progressed beyond this and it (along with classic leading indicators such as the rise in
the "future expectations" component of consumer confidence) is telling us the recession will
be over in February or March. Stocks are looking ahead; you should be, too.
Original cost (adjusted): $ 4,998.21
Present value: $ 4,186.39
Increase: $ -811.82 [-16.24%]
The performance of this portfolio and its predecessors ("Hedger's Delight", "Present and Future Income", "Crapshooter's Folly") from January 1987 to the present is -5.02%, for a compound annual rate of return of -0.34%. COMMENT on "Phoenix": There is no change from the last issue (cash balance is not up to date).
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $ 9,024.00
Present value: $15,388.76
Increase: $ 6,364.76 [+70.53%]
COMMENT on "PIG": I was able to buy shares of Applied Materials at a reasonable price, as
the PIGs had requested, but it is unlikely that Palm will return to the $2-per-share range
anytime soon, where the PIGs said I should pick up 500 shares.
C. Roth rollover IRA - real portfolio, includes commissions:
SUMMARY - IRA:
Original (1983-86) cost: $ 8,326.19
Present value: $10,314.75
Increase: $ 1,988.56 [+23.88%]
The performance of this portfolio (including its predecessors) from January 1, 1987 to the present is -5.95%, for a compound annual rate of return of -0.40%.
D. CREF Pension plan; I switch between indexed stock/bond/money funds:
Date Sold Bought
13Mar1992 stock @ 56.65 MM @ 13.41
29Apr1992 MM @ 13.48 bond @ 31.19
19Jun1992 bond @ 32.14 MM @ 13.55
29Jun1992 MM @ 13.57 stock @ 56.74
24Jul1992 stock @ 56.76 MM @ 13.61
29Oct1992 MM @ 13.72 stock @ 58.61
23Dec1992 stock @ 61.48 MM @ 13.78
16Jan1995 MM @ 14.83 equity-index @ 26.44
20Jan1995 eq-index @ 26.19 MM @ 14.84
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 bond@47.56 (27.17%)
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 i-i bond@26.12 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 bond@ 48.84 MM@17.52 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 I-I bond@ 26.23 MM@17.52(27.17%)
16Jun1998 MM@ 17.84 TIAA Traditional (45.87%)
23Sep1999 MM@18.99 I-I bond@27.56 (53.32%)
17-18May2000 rate adjustment to 7.25% in SRA
12-13Jul2000 rate adjustment to 7.5% in SRA
8Jan2001 TIAA Traditional bond@58.62 [22.77%]
8Jan2001 TIAA Traditional eq-idx@75.79 [4.56%]
1Feb2001 i-i bond@31.78 eq-idx@80.84 [26.76%]
20Sep2001 bond@61.99 eq-idx@58.42 [2.44%]
21Nov2001 i-i bond@33.80 eq-idx@67.52 [4.35%]
11Dec2001 i-ibond@33.28 eq-idx@67.95 [6.19%]
17Dec2001 i-i bond@33.13 RlEst@168.75 [9.94%]
17Dec2001 bond@61,54 RlEst@168.75 [9.26%]
31Dec2001 i-i bond@33.50 eq-idx@68.74 [8.21%]
Values, 31Dec2001: stock, 162.51; equity-index, 68.74 MM, 21.32; bond, 62.45; inflation-indexed bond,
Gain, 1988: 18.91%; 1989: 14.48%; 1990: 8.28%; 1991: 27.93%; 1992: 10.20%; 1993: 3.08%; 1994: 4.07%; 1995: 4.80%; 1996: 5.28%; 1997: 5.38%; 1998: 5.72%; 1999: 5.12%; 2000: 9.99%
33.50; TIAA current yield in SRA, 7.5% (new money at 6.0% through February 28, 2002)
Gain, January 1 through December 31, 2001: 1.11%
Total gain since January 1, 1988 (14 years): 220.33%
Compound annual rate of return: 8.67% (My long-term target: in excess of 10%)
Gain shown excludes the impact of additional monthly cash contributions.
Buying CREF stock on January 1, 1988 and holding it gained 419.53%, for a compound annual rate of
return of 12.50%.
Comment on the retirement plan: In December, I continued to switch out of inflation-indexed
bonds (and to a lesser extent, corporate bonds) and into other things. On December 11 I
committed an additional 6.2% to equities, using inflation-indexed bonds as the cash source.
On December 17 I decided to further diversify out of bonds, committing about 19.2% of the
total portfolio to the TIAA Real Estate fund. This is not an exciting fund.... about as exciting
as watching paint dry. In fact, with today's fast-drying latex paints, watching paint dry is more
exciting than watching this fund increase in value. But it has consistently returned more than
8% per year since its inception, except for 2001 when it returned less than 6.3%. I attribute
this smaller return directly to the softening of real estate in the recession (along with lower
rents and mortgage yields), and I
expect this fund to "return to trend" as the recession lifts. Certainly it, along with TIAA
Traditional, are viable safe alternatives to the money market, whose current yield is around
2%.
On December 31 (after noticing that parabolic spike) I exited the remaining inflation-indexed bonds, committing the cash to equities. At year's end, my portfolio was invested: 48.982% in CREF Equity Index, 19.385% in TIAA Traditional (at 7.5% yield), 18.979% in TIAA Real Estate, and 12.654% in CREF Bond.
I have never had a losing year in this retirement plan (though I have had an occasional losing quarter). On the other hand, I haven't had a double-digit gain since 1992. Maybe in 2002?.... we'll see.
COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend":
The BUY on November 1 remains in effect.
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Wed 1 Aug 01 . | .# |10510.01 | . + *
Thu 2 Aug 01 . | .# |10551.18 | . + *
Fri 3 Aug 01 . | # |10512.78 | . + *
Mon 6 Aug 01 . |# . |10401.31 | .+ *
Tue 7 Aug 01 . | .# |10458.74 | .+ *
Wed 8 Aug 01 . # . |10293.50 | + *
Thu 9 Aug 01 . | #. |10298.56 | + *
Fri 10 Aug 01 . | .# |10416.25 | + *
Mon 13 Aug 01 . | # |10415.91 | + *
Tue 14 Aug 01 . | .# |10412.17 | + *
Wed 15 Aug 01 . | # |10345.95 | .+ *
Thu 16 Aug 01 . |# . |10392.52 | .+ *
Fri 17 Aug 01 . #| . |10240.78 | + *
Mon 20 Aug 01 . | # |10320.07 | + *
Tue 21 Aug 01 . | #. |10174.14 |+. *
Wed 22 Aug 01 . | .# |10276.90 |+. *
Thu 23 Aug 01 . | #. |10229.15 | + *
Fri 24 Aug 01 . | . # |10423.17 | .+ *
Mon 27 Aug 01 . | #. |10382.35 | .+ *
Tue 28 Aug 01 . # . |10222.03 | + *
Wed 29 Aug 01 . # . |10090.90 |+. *
Thu 30 Aug 01 # I . | 9919.58 +~.~~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 31 Aug 01 . I # | 9949.75 + . *
Tue 4 Sep 01 . I #. | 9997.49 + . *
Wed 5 Sep 01 # I . {|10033.27 |-. *
Thu 6 Sep 01 # . I . | 9840.84 | - *
Fri 7 Sep 01 # . I . | 9605.85 | - *
Mon 10 Sep 01 # I . | 9605.51 | .- *
Mon 17 Sep 01 # . I . * | 8920.70 |~.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 18 Sep 01 # . I . | 8903.40 @| . - *
Wed 19 Sep 01 # . I . | 8759.13 @| . - *
Thu 20 Sep 01 # . I . | 8376.21 @|~.~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 21 Sep 01 # . I . | 8235.81 @| . - *
Mon 24 Sep 01 . & . | 8603.86 @| . - *
Tue 25 Sep 01 # I . | 8659.97 | . - *
Wed 26 Sep 01 # . I . | 8567.39 | . - *
Thu 27 Sep 01 # I . | 8681.42 | . - *
Fri 28 Sep 01 . I #. | 8847.56 | - *
Mon 1 Oct 01 #. I . | 8836.83 | .- *
Tue 2 Oct 01 . I# . | 8950.59 | - *
Wed 3 Oct 01 . | # | 9123.78 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 4 Oct 01 . |# . | 9060.88 + . *
Fri 5 Oct 01 . #| . | 9119.77 + . *
Mon 8 Oct 01 . #| . | 9067.94 + . *
Tue 9 Oct 01 . #I . | 9052.44 + . *
Wed 10 Oct 01 . | .# | 9240.86 + . *
Thu 11 Oct 01 . | . # }| 9410.45 |+. *
Fri 12 Oct 01 . #| . [| 9344.16 |+. *
Mon 15 Oct 01 . # . | 9347.62 |+. *
Tue 16 Oct 01 . | # ]| 9384.23 | + *
Wed 17 Oct 01 .# | . [| 9232.97 |+. *
Thu 18 Oct 01 # I . {| 9163.22 |-. *
Fri 19 Oct 01 . # . | 9204.11 |-. *
Mon 22 Oct 01 . | #. | 9377.03 + . *
Tue 23 Oct 01 . # . | 9340.08 |-. *
Wed 24 Oct 01 . #| . | 9345.62 |-. *
Thu 25 Oct 01 . | #. }| 9462.90 + . *
Fri 26 Oct 01 . | #. | 9545.17 |+. *
Mon 29 Oct 01 #. | . [| 9269.50 |-. *
Tue 30 Oct 01 # . I . {| 9121.98 | - *
Wed 31 Oct 01 . #I . | 9075.14 | - *
Thu 1 Nov 01 . | #. }| 9263.90 | - *
Fri 2 Nov 01 . | #. | 9323.54 | - *
Mon 5 Nov 01 . | .# | 9441.03 + . *
Tue 6 Nov 01 . | .# | 9591.12 | + *
Wed 7 Nov 01 . | #. | 9554.37 | + *
Thu 8 Nov 01 . | # | 9587.52 | .+ *
Fri 9 Nov 01 . | #. | 9608.00 | .+ *
Mon 12 Nov 01 . | #. | 9554.37 | + *
Tue 13 Nov 01 . | . # | 9750.95 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 14 Nov 01 . | . # | 9823.61 | .+ *
Thu 15 Nov 01 . | #. | 9872.39 | .+ *
Fri 16 Nov 01 . | # | 9866.99 | .+ *
Mon 19 Nov 01 . | . # | 9976.46 | . + *
Tue 20 Nov 01 . |# . | 9901.38 | .+ *
Wed 21 Nov 01 . # . | 9834.68 | + *
Fri 23 Nov 01 . | . # | 9959.71 | .+ *
Mon 26 Nov 01 . | .# | 9982.75 | .+ *
Tue 27 Nov 01 . | #. | 9872.60 | + *
Wed 28 Nov 01 # | . | 9711.86 | + *
Thu 29 Nov 01 . |# . | 9829.42 | + *
Fri 30 Nov 01 . | #. | 9851.56 |+. *
Mon 3 Dec 01 . |# . | 9763.96 + . *
Tue 4 Dec 01 . | . # | 9893.84 |+. *
Wed 5 Dec 01 . | . # |10114.29 | .+ *
Thu 6 Dec 01 . | # |10099.14 | .+ *
Fri 7 Dec 01 . | #. |10049.46 | .+ *
Mon 10 Dec 01 .# | . | 9921.45 | .+ *
Tue 11 Dec 01 . #| . | 9888.37 |+. *
Wed 12 Dec 01 . #| . | 9894.81 + . *
Thu 13 Dec 01 . #I . | 9766.45 |-. *
Fri 14 Dec 01 . & . | 9811.15 |-. *
Mon 17 Dec 01 . | #. | 9891.87 |-. *
Tue 18 Dec 01 . | # | 9998.39 + . *
Wed 19 Dec 01 . | #. |10070.49 |+. *
Thu 20 Dec 01 . |# . | 9985.19 |+. *
Fri 21 Dec 01 . | # |10035.34 | + *
Mon 24 Dec 01 . | # |10035.34 | + *
Wed 26 Dec 01 . | . # |10088.14 | + *
Thu 27 Dec 01 . | . # |10131.31 | .+ *
Fri 28 Dec 01 . | . # |10136.99 | . + *
Mon 31 Dec 01 . | # |10021.50 | . + *
Wed 2 Jan 02 . | .# |10073.40 | . + *
Thu 3 Jan 02 . | . # |10172.14 | . + *
Fri 4 Jan 02 . | . # |10259.74 | . + *
========================================================================
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": The BUY signal on November 6 is still in effect.
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND ____________________________ Wed 1 Aug 01 . I .# | 2068.38 | + * Thu 2 Aug 01 . | #. | 2087.38 |+. * Fri 3 Aug 01 . & . | 2066.33 |+. * Mon 6 Aug 01 . & . | 2034.26 |+. * Tue 7 Aug 01 . & . | 2027.79 |+. * Wed 8 Aug 01 # I . | 1966.36 |-. * Thu 9 Aug 01 .# I . | 1963.32 |-. * Fri 10 Aug 01 .# I . | 1956.47 | - * Mon 13 Aug 01 . I # | 1982.25 |-. * Tue 14 Aug 01 . #I . | 1964.53 |-. * Wed 15 Aug 01 # I . | 1918.89 |-. * Thu 16 Aug 01 .# I . | 1930.32 |-. * Fri 17 Aug 01 #. I . | 1867.01 | - * Mon 20 Aug 01 . & . | 1881.35 | - * Tue 21 Aug 01 #. I . | 1831.30 |~.-~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Wed 22 Aug 01 . & . | 1860.01 | - * Thu 23 Aug 01 .# I . | 1842.97 | - * Fri 24 Aug 01 . I # | 1916.80 |-. * Mon 27 Aug 01 . #I . | 1912.41 |-. * Tue 28 Aug 01 #. I . | 1864.98 |-. * Wed 29 Aug 01 #. I . | 1841.17 | - * Thu 30 Aug 01 # . I . | 1791.68 | .- * Fri 31 Aug 01 . #I . | 1805.43 | . - * Tue 4 Sep 01 # . I . | 1770.78 | . - * Wed 5 Sep 01 # . I . | 1759.01 | . - * Fri 7 Sep 01 # . I . | 1687.70 | . - * Mon 10 Sep 01 #. I . | 1695.38 | . - * Mon 17 Sep 01 # . I . | 1579.55 @|*.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Tue 18 Sep 01 # . I . | 1555.08 @| . - * Wed 19 Sep 01 # . I . | 1527.80 @| . - * Thu 20 Sep 01 # . I . | 1470.93 @| . - * Fri 21 Sep 01 # . I . | 1423.19 @| . * - Mon 24 Sep 01 . & . | 1499.40 @| . - * Tue 25 Sep 01 #. I . | 1501.64 @| . - * Wed 26 Sep 01 # . I . | 1464.04 @| . - * Thu 27 Sep 01 # . I . | 1460.71 @| . - * Fri 28 Sep 01 . & . | 1498.80 | . - * Mon 1 Oct 01 # . I . | 1480.46 | . - * Tue 2 Oct 01 # I . | 1492.33 | . - * Wed 3 Oct 01 . I# . | 1580.81 | .- * Thu 4 Oct 01 . I# . | 1597.31 | - * Fri 5 Oct 01 . #I . | 1605.30 | - * Mon 8 Oct 01 . & . | 1605.95 |-. * Tue 9 Oct 01 #. I . | 1570.19 |-. * Wed 10 Oct 01 . I #. | 1626.26 |-. * Thu 11 Oct 01 . | .# | 1701.47 + . * Fri 12 Oct 01 . |# . | 1703.40 + . * Mon 15 Oct 01 . #| . | 1696.31 + . * Tue 16 Oct 01 . | # | 1722.07 |+. * Wed 17 Oct 01 # | . | 1646.34 + . * Thu 18 Oct 01 . #I . | 1652.72 |-. * Fri 19 Oct 01 . #I . | 1671.31 |-. * Mon 22 Oct 01 . | #. | 1708.08 + . * Tue 23 Oct 01 . # . | 1704.44 |-. * Wed 24 Oct 01 . | #. | 1731.54 + . * Thu 25 Oct 01 . | .# | 1775.47 |+. * Fri 26 Oct 01 . |# . | 1768.96 |+. * Mon 29 Oct 01 .# | . | 1699.52 |+. * Tue 30 Oct 01 #. | . | 1667.41 + . * Wed 31 Oct 01 . | #. | 1690.20 + . * Thu 1 Nov 01 . | # | 1746.30 + . * Fri 2 Nov 01 . #| . | 1745.73 |-. * Mon 5 Nov 01 . | .# | 1793.65 + . * Tue 6 Nov 01 . | .# }| 1835.08 | + * Wed 7 Nov 01 . | # [| 1837.53 | + * Thu 8 Nov 01 . |# . | 1827.77 | + * Fri 9 Nov 01 . |# . | 1828.48 | + * Mon 12 Nov 01 . |# . | 1840.13 | + * Tue 13 Nov 01 . | . # ]| 1892.11 | + * Wed 14 Nov 01 . | # | 1903.19 | + * Thu 15 Nov 01 . | #. | 1900.57 | + * Fri 16 Nov 01 . | #. | 1898.58 | + * Mon 19 Nov 01 . | . # | 1934.42 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~* Tue 20 Nov 01 . #| . | 1880.51 | + * Wed 21 Nov 01 . | #. | 1875.05 | + * Fri 23 Nov 01 . | . # | 1903.20 | .+ * Mon 26 Nov 01 . | . # | 1941.23 | . + * Tue 27 Nov 01 . | # | 1935.97 | .+ * Wed 28 Nov 01 . #| . | 1887.97 | .+ * Thu 29 Nov 01 . | .# | 1933.26 | . + * Fri 30 Nov 01 . |# . | 1930.58 | + * Mon 3 Dec 01 . #| . | 1904.90 |+. * Tue 4 Dec 01 . | . # | 1963.10 |+. * Wed 5 Dec 01 . | . # | 2046.84 | .+ * Thu 6 Dec 01 . | .# | 2054.27 | .+ * Fri 7 Dec 01 . |# . | 2021.26 | .+ * Mon 10 Dec 01 . |# . | 1992.12 | .+ * Tue 11 Dec 01 . | .# | 2001.93 | .+ * Wed 12 Dec 01 . | #. | 2011.38 | + * Thu 13 Dec 01 . # . | 1946.51 |+. * Fri 14 Dec 01 . | #. | 1953.17 |+. * Mon 17 Dec 01 . | .# | 1987.45 | + * Tue 18 Dec 01 . | .# | 2004.76 | + * Wed 19 Dec 01 . |# . | 1982.89 | + * Thu 20 Dec 01 .# I . | 1918.54 |+. * Fri 21 Dec 01 . | . # | 1945.83 | + * Mon 24 Dec 01 . | # | 1944.48 | + * Wed 26 Dec 01 . | . # | 1960.70 | + * Thu 27 Dec 01 . | . # | 1976.42 | .+ * Fri 28 Dec 01 . | . # | 1987.26 | . + * Mon 31 Dec 01 . | # | 1950.40 | . + * Wed 2 Jan 02 . | . # | 1979.25 | . + * Thu 3 Jan 02 . | . # | 2044.27 | . + * Fri 4 Jan 02 . | . # | 2059.38 | . + * ========================================================================"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces:
NEXT ISSUE - will appear in late January. /Nick Chase