SUMMARY - "PIG":
The Contrarian's View is published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. Material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet through the World-Wide Web service at Assumption College. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, Open URL http://nick.assumption.edu. Mailed paper subscriptions, one year for $39 to The Contrarian's View, 132 Moreland Street, Worcester, Massachusetts 01609. There is a limit of 50 paid subscribers at one time; please check for availability before sending any money. Sorry, Visa and Mastercard are not available. Overseas subscription rate, U.S. $54. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! ISSN 1536-4429 Phone: (508) 757-2881
What have we learned from the behavior of stocks since de-facto war was declared on us on September 11? For one thing, it sure is obvious that the Fed still has a lot of clout. If stocks were ever going to crash, it would certainly have happened following the disintegration of the World Trade Center.... an event that falls into the "earthquake in California, which then slides into the ocean" category, an argument that perennial bears occasionally trumpet when they hope that investors will suddenly realize their foolhardiness, panic, and cause a crash. Now consider what actually happened: Instantly, we are at war and overnight the psychology of the country has shifted, just as after Pearl Harbor; the illusion that we're not in a recession vanished in the smoke of the rubble; there was an immediate hit to consumer spending, newly-raised capital (IPO and bond markets) and especially to air transportation; and the markets were closed for a week due to the devastation.
If this were the "old days" (pre-1987), with stocks already in a bear market and still very overpriced in historical terms (at 130% of GDP, 63% higher than the 1929 peak), surely in this age of instant communications the attack would have caused an immediate collapse when the markets reopened. Instead, what we got was more-or-less orderly panic, with the "plunge protection team" clearly propping up the stock averages on Friday September 21, and probably also earlier that week. Chalk up another victory for Uncle Al (your tax dollars at work).
Now we face a situation not terribly dissimilar to 1990. At the beginning of the last decade, the economy was sliding into a mild recession when Iraq conquered Kuwait. The recession worsened and the bear market deepened until our invasion of Iraq in January 1991, after which stocks really took off in a new bull market that lasted for three years. (I count 1994 as a bear-market year; not everybody does, though.)
This year, the economy was sliding into a recession which was (probably) sharper than most were willing to acknowledge, and still has not been officially recognized. Overall, though, the current recession does not differ greatly from others of the post-WWII period (Keynesianism in force; your tax dollars at work, again), except for the popping of the NASDAQ bubble.
Is it reasonable to expect the bubble-popping to lead to a period of mild deflation and subpar economic performance, as happened in Japan in the 1990s.... or even to a major worldwide recession or depression, as happened in the 1930s? Of course it is, under "normal" circumstances. But what can we expect when war.... which might evolve into a major war against a half-dozen terrorist-supporting states.... follows right on the heels of a (partly-) popped financial bubble?
Looking back through history (into the 1700s), I couldn't really find any examples of nations being attacked and gearing up for war at the tail end of a bubble. The best I can do is imagine: Suppose Germany and Japan had begun their militarization and conquests a decade earlier, in the 1920s instead of the 1930s? Then suppose the attack on Pearl Harbor had come in, say, September 1930 instead of December 1941? People here who did not yet know we were entering a depression would have, overnight, shed their isolationism and begun preparing to wage war on a large scale. Would we have had the Great Depression?
Of course, nobody knows, but I'm inclined to think the war buildup would have postponed an economic depression for at least the duration of the war, and possibly forever, since with the onset of war many of the financial policy mistakes of the 1930s would never have been made. And contrast those mistakes with the current situation: The most aggressive Federal Reserve easing in history; income tax rate cuts and rebate checks; a "stimulus" package of $50 to $75 billion under discussion in Congress; the willingness of the federal government to spend its revenue surplus (rather than retire debt held by the public).
Yes, we appear to be in a unique situation, but I still can't see anything like the Great Depression, or even a period of malaise like Japan's, happening in the near future. Something like the 1970s, yes, that I can believe could happen within a few years. In the meantime, war is bullish as long as it goes in our favor.
Last January I said that, thanks to the Federal Reserve, we had a high-risk, high-cost
buying opportunity in stocks. Ooops, a little too early (as is usual for me).... now we
have a better idea of what to expect in Fed vs. bubble, the unwinding will persist for
a while longer. Today (with stocks still more than 130% of GDP) what we have is a
historically still-high-cost, but much lower risk buying opportunity. Enjoy, for at
least a little while.
The stock market was saved from peril twice last week [September 24-28]. The second time, on Friday, a mysterious and aggressive buying saved stocks from a huge loss and kept the Dow above 8,000. That rescue effort certainly looked like the handiwork of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. - John Crudele
The award for the largest margin call met by a single individual yesterday [September 20] goes to Sid Bass, one of the (somewhat less) wealthy Bass Brothers from Texas. Somehow, Mr. Bass incurred a margin call approaching $2 billion that he satisfied by handing over to Goldman Sachs 135 million shares of Walt Disney Co. For us plain folk, selling $2 billion worth of stock to meet a margin call is remarkable on two counts. First of all, $2 billion is simply a lot of money for one guy to be tossing around to satisfy leveraged wrong-way bets in the stock market. Secondly, why isn't Sid Bass playing golf? What's the thought process here? "A multi-billion personal fortune is not bad, but my life would be so much easier if I just had a couple more billion." - Eric Fry
Before our world was distorted by the madmen, US equities were massively overvalued on a historical and fundamental basis, corporate profits were imploding, hard-working Americans were being aggressively axed by corporations, the US economy was rapidly slowing, and the ugly consequences of a supercycle bubble bust were painfully unfolding. After our world was distorted by the madmen, what is my outlook? I strongly believe that US equities are massively overvalued on a historical and fundamental basis, that corporate profits are imploding, that hard-working Americans are being aggressively axed by corporations, that the US economy is rapidly slowing, and that the ugly consequences of a supercycle bust are painfully unfolding. - Adam Hamilton
Nothing is more dangerous to the world economy than declining trade...it was a collapse in trade that marked the Great Depression...when wealth walked backwards for several years. - Bill Bonner
Oh yes, this is interesting - the bond market is signaling that inflation is not going to be a problem. The gap between inflation-adjusted T-notes and those that are not adjusted for inflation has narrowed to just 1.39%. Strangely - and perhaps insanely - bond buyers are implying that inflation will not exceed 1.39% annually for the next 10 years! - Bill Bonner
Now we see the whole technology sector is operating at a loss. And even at the height of the tech boom, profits were greatly inflated by stock market profits. Since the end of '98, the entire technology sector has made no profits. Nothing. It has been a profit catastrophe. The real cause of the economic slowdown is the lack of profits - which has led to a collapse in capital spending. But who notices? No one! - Kurt Richebacher
[Americans] have been doing something that's probably irrational from the point of view of the individual consumer because they all need to be saving more; saving for retirement, saving for college and all that. But we'd be in bad trouble if they started doing that rational thing all of a sudden. We're happy they're spending. We wish that they didn't run up a lot of debt to do it. - Robert McTeer [Dallas Fed governor]
On Wall Street, as perhaps in the rest of life, nothing succeeds like excess. If a few
dollars could help stave off a crisis...a few more could trigger a real boom. Thus
did the Greenspan Fed go about its work in the aftermath of every crisis to come its
way - flooding the world with cash and credit. As long as the big boom was in
place, the extra money was taken up and used to expand demand, boost production, and puff up asset prices. Each time - especially, following the LTCM, Asian
currency, and Y2K threats - the economy boomed and the stock market soared.
Most recently, central banks injected $208 billion into the world banking system
immediately following the terrorists' attack. The Fed and the ECB each cut another
half of a percentage point from key lending rates. Will the magic work again? Is it
the same world it was in 1948 and 1998? Or has something really changed? Have
we crossed some sort of watershed, such as people did in Japan in 1989...or in
Europe in 1914...so that the habits of the last generation no longer produce the
same level of prosperity...or the same peace? - Bill Bonner
Overall, that wasn't too bad a call... stocks did "right themselves" in a few days' time, though at lower levels than I expected (S&P 500 down about 5%, after selling off more than 12%). As I pointed out in the "warmline" a few days later, They say that you should buy stocks when "blood is running in the streets". Sadly, it is the blood of our own citizens in the streets of lower Manhattan, but the principle remains, nevertheless. Forget the financial commentary on TV, which is perpetually bullish, especially now that is infected with war fever. The reality is, people are quietly panicking, because stocks have been dropping like rocks this week.... and justifiably so, because the illusion of not being in a recession has vanished as surely as the World Trade Center did. In other words, the shift in psychology was greater than what I had anticipated and, though we may have come close to a crash, the Fed still has enough clout to short-circuit one, even under the most dire circumstances.
In the future? In the "warmline" I cast my vote for the historical trend reasserting itself: But from a historical point of view, odds are that stocks will be sharply higher a few months down the road. The most pessimistic outcome following a crisis/shock to the country was after Pearl Harbor, where stocks drifted lower for a few months in the dark days of World War II. In all of the post-WWII shocks, stocks were higher to sharply higher weeks later. Added to this is our knowledge that short-term, stocks were very oversold before the terrorist attack, and that attack has likely compressed the remaining capitulation into a much shorter time period. In fact, investors' mood is so dark that I suspect we'll see a monster rally at some point, though probably not before our military reprisal is underway. Now this is war, after all, and it is certainly possible that another terrorist action will continue to darken the mood; but I'll go with the historical odds.
You maybe want to know if, in my many years of stock-market watching, I have seen a similar period. And the answer is, yes, in the spring of 1970. We were coming off the "-onics" bubble of the late 1960s, and the Vietnam war was losing popular support. Stocks had peaked in the spring of 1969, after Lyndon Johnson said he wouldn't run for office again (most of the tech stuff had peaked in the closing days of 1968), and since that time a vicious bear market had been underway. In the spring of 1970 the bear picked up momentum as margin calls wiped out investors' accounts, and the Dow made a V-shaped bottom in May. Most stocks (but not the Dow) quietly made their final bottoms in July, after which another bull market, which eventually became the "Nifty Fifty", got underway. I might point out, the Fed was printing plenty of money to pay for both "guns and butter", but we had to get through the fallout from the bubble before the new bull could take off. You might also note that the final bottom didn't arrive until four years later (December 1974); the 1972-73 craze for "one-decision" stocks was but a pleasant interlude in a pretty dismal five-year stretch for the buy-and-hold-forever types.
We are, I think, in a similar multiyear bear market in which stocks will return to, or below, fair value over time.... but now we will have a war-accentuated pleasant interlude of a one- to three-year duration. I see us likely to follow the 1970 pattern over the short term, meaning stocks will quietly bottom sometime in November (earlier, if our military reprisal comes sooner, like January 1991), after which the new bull will get underway in earnest for 2002 and, possibly, 2003.
Beyond then, my crystal ball grows cloudy. The course of stocks is likely to be very war-dependent. If the campaign against terrorism goes well.... like the Gulf war, we sweep through Afghanistan, eliminate the terrorist threat residing there, allow to be established a government the people actually favor, perhaps finish the job in Iraq that Bush Sr. left undone.... then I can see a multiyear bull market, and possibly "fair value" will rise to meet stock prices. If, on the other hand, the terrorist problem is essentially insoluble, the best we can do is dampen it so it's not a thorn in our side and there are no more attacks on the homeland, then I can see the war losing its popular support over time as happened with Vietnam.... but it will continue to suck up resources (and bodies), be a drag on the economy, and the bear will return as it did in 1973-74 during the darkest days in Vietnam.
At any rate, since war can have uncertain outcomes, let's concentrate for now on the
shorter term, which is bullish as soon as our military response gets under way,
maybe even sooner if many months' buildup is required before we can respond
militarily. And let's hope our government now has enough on the ball to detect and
thwart any other incipient terrorist attacks on our own soil, so we can progressively
begin to feel safer. After all, the most important function of a central government is
national defense, not income redistribution.
Original cost (adjusted): $ 4,998.21
Present value: $ 3,714.83
Increase: $-1,283.38 [-25.68%]
The performance of this portfolio and its predecessors ("Hedger's Delight", "Present and Future Income", "Crapshooter's Folly") from January 1987 to the present is -15.72%, for a compound annual rate of return of -1.14%. COMMENT on "Phoenix": On Monday, September 17, I committed almost all of the remaining cash in this portfolio to an initial investment in the ICON InformationTechnology Fund at $8.69. (The cash balance is still not up to date, but there was at least $700 available.) There were signs of capitulation-selling in stocks before the acts of war; so I decided to take advantage of the adjustment in stock prices to those of world markets, on the theory that the selloff would likely be brief and that we were close to the"final bottom" (at least in this leg of the bear). I was early, as usual; all stock markets continued to "adjust" downward through the end of the week. I should point out that I had planned to commit the remaining cash sometime between the third week of September and the middle of October; the terrorist attack better defined the right (so I thought) time for me to move. I must say, I wish I were more skilled at picking off bottoms; but it seems all I am able to do is detect when stocks are extremely oversold for the short- and intermediate-term, plunge in, and pray.
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $ 9,024.00
Present value: $15,053.52
Increase: $ 6,029.52 [+66.82%]
COMMENT on "PIG":
The PIGs' Web page is at
http://www.assumption.edu/HTML/Faculty/Kantar/WPigs.html
C. Roth rollover IRA - real portfolio, includes commissions:
SUMMARY - IRA:
Original (1983-86) cost: $ 8,326.19
Present value: $ 8,953.85
Increase: $ 627.66 [+7.54%]
The performance of this portfolio (including its predecessors)
from January 1, 1987 to the present is -11.36%, for a compound
annual rate of return of -1.35%.
D. CREF Pension plan; I switch between indexed stock/bond/money funds:
Date Sold Bought
13Mar1992 stock @ 56.65 MM @ 13.41
29Apr1992 MM @ 13.48 bond @ 31.19
19Jun1992 bond @ 32.14 MM @ 13.55
29Jun1992 MM @ 13.57 stock @ 56.74
24Jul1992 stock @ 56.76 MM @ 13.61
29Oct1992 MM @ 13.72 stock @ 58.61
23Dec1992 stock @ 61.48 MM @ 13.78
16Jan1995 MM @ 14.83 equity-index @ 26.44
20Jan1995 eq-index @ 26.19 MM @ 14.84
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 bond@47.56 (27.17%)
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 i-i bond@26.12 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 bond@ 48.84 MM@17.52 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 I-I bond@ 26.23 MM@17.52(27.17%)
16Jun1998 MM@ 17.84 TIAA Traditional (45.87%)
23Sep1999 MM@18.99 I-I bond@27.56 (53.32%)
17-18May2000 rate adjustment to 7.25% in SRA
12-13Jul2000 rate adjustment to 7.5% in SRA
8Jan2001 TIAA Traditional bond@58.62 [22.77%]
8Jan2001 TIAA Traditional eq-idx@75.79 [4.56%]
1Feb2001 i-i bond@31.78 eq-idx@80.84 [26.76%]
20Sep2001 bond@61.99 eq-idx@58.42 [2.44%]
Values, 28Sep2001: stock, 146.71; equity-index, 61.61; MM, 21.19; bond, 62.62;
inflation-indexed bond, 33.88; TIAA current yield in SRA, 7.5% (new money at
6.0% through February 28, 2002)
Gain, 1988: 18.91%; 1989: 14.48%; 1990: 8.28%; 1991: 27.93%; 1992: 10.20%; 1993: 3.08%; 1994: 4.07%; 1995: 4.80%; 1996: 5.28%; 1997: 5.38%; 1998: 5.72%; 1999: 5.12%; 2000: 9.99%
Gain, January 1 through June 30, 2001: 0.68%
Total gain since January 1, 1988 (13.5 years): 218.97%
Compound annual rate of return: 8.97% (My long-term target: in excess of 10%)
Gain shown excludes the impact of additional monthly cash contributions.
Buying CREF stock on January 1, 1988 and holding it gained
453.55%, for a compound annual rate of return of 13.57%.
On Thursday, September 20, in my TIAA-CREF retirement I shifted approximately
9.707% of the funds in the CREF Bond Fund to the CREF Equity Index Fund. This
has the effect of rebalancing my overall TIAA-CREF retirement portfolio to approximately 2.44% less in (non-inflation-indexed) bonds and 2.44% more in
equities which are supposed to mimic the Russell 3000. I have been careful in my
rebalancing to commit only (less than) the year's profits in the bond market to
"averaging down" in stocks, leaving the principal intact (as long as bonds don't
suddenly tank). Averaging down in individual stocks can turn into disaster.... as
Webvan.com, now disappeared, amply demonstrates.... but in index funds, it's a
good idea as long as stocks move higher a year or two out, or at any rate are higher
within your long-term time frame. The TIAA-CREF bond funds have done quite
well this year, with a gain of more that 8% through the third quarter, and the gain
will likely top 9% for the year for two good years in a row. As you know, I have been
primarily a bond bull.... occasionally, I get something right.
COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend":
We are on a SELL signal of September 5,
2001. A pretty good signal, I must confess, though do I in no way claim that "Timer's Trend" anticipated terrorists picking off the World Trade Center. It's just that
September was on the way to being an ugly month even before the onset of war.
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Mon 29 Jan 01 . | . # |10702.19 | . + *
Tue 30 Jan 01 . | . # |10881.20 | . + *
Wed 31 Jan 01 . | . # |10887.36 | . + *
Thu 1 Feb 01 . | . # |10983.63 |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 2 Feb 01 . | # |10864.10 | . + *
Mon 5 Feb 01 . | . # |10965.85 | . + *
Tue 6 Feb 01 . | . # |10957.42 | . + *
Wed 7 Feb 01 . | # |10946.72 | . + *
Thu 8 Feb 01 . | .# |10880.55 | . + *
Fri 9 Feb 01 . | # |10781.45 | . + *
Mon 12 Feb 01 . | . # |10946.77 | . + *
Tue 13 Feb 01 . | .# |10903.32 | . + *
Wed 14 Feb 01 . | # |10795.41 | . + *
Thu 15 Feb 01 . | . # |10891.02 | . + *
Fri 16 Feb 01 . |# . |10799.82 | .+ *
Tue 20 Feb 01 . |# . |10730.88 | + *
Wed 21 Feb 01 . & . |10526.28 |~+~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 Feb 01 . & . |10562.61 |+. *
Fri 23 Feb 01 . #I . |10441.90 + . *
Mon 26 Feb 01 . I . # |10642.53 |+. *
Tue 27 Feb 01 . I # |10636.88 |+. *
Wed 28 Feb 01 . I .# |10495.28 | + *-------------------
Thu 1 Mar 01 . I# . |10450.14 | + *
Fri 2 Mar 01 . | .# |10466.31 | .+ *
Mon 5 Mar 01 . | . # |10562.30 | .+ *
Tue 6 Mar 01 . | . # |10591.22 | . + *
Wed 7 Mar 01 . | . # |10729.60 | . + *
Thu 8 Mar 01 . | .# |10585.25 | . + *
Fri 9 Mar 01 . | . # |10644.62 | . + *
Mon 12 Mar 01 #. I . |10208.25 | .+ *
Tue 13 Mar 01 . & . |10290.80 | + *
Wed 14 Mar 01 #. I . {| 9873.46 |*+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 15 Mar 01 . I #. |10031.28 + . *
Fri 16 Mar 01 #. I . | 9823.41 | - *
Mon 19 Mar 01 . I # | 9959.11 |-. *
Tue 20 Mar 01 . & . | 9720.76 |-. *
Wed 21 Mar 01 #. I . | 9487.00 |-.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 Mar 01 # . I . | 9389.48 | .- *
Fri 23 Mar 01 . I # | 9504.78 |-. *
Mon 26 Mar 01 . I . # | 9687.53 |-. *
Tue 27 Mar 01 . I . # | 9947.54 + . *
Wed 28 Mar 01 . #I . | 9785.35 |+. *
Thu 29 Mar 01 . & . | 9799.06 | + *
Fri 30 Mar 01 . I # | 9878.78 | + *
Mon 2 Apr 01 . #I . | 9777.93 |+. *
Tue 3 Apr 01 # . I . | 9485.71 | - *
Wed 4 Apr 01 .# I . | 9515.42 | - *
Thu 5 Apr 01 . I . # | 9918.05 |-. *
Fri 6 Apr 01 #. I . | 9791.09 | - *
Mon 9 Apr 01 . I # | 9845.15 |-. *
Tue 10 Apr 01 . | . # |10102.74 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 11 Apr 01 . & . |10013.47 | + *
Thu 12 Apr 01 . | # |10126.94 |+. *
Mon 16 Apr 01 . I #. |10158.56 | + *
Tue 17 Apr 01 . | .# |10216.73 | .+ *
Wed 18 Apr 01 . | . # }|10615.83 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 19 Apr 01 . | .# |10693.71 | . + *
Fri 20 Apr 01 . # . |10579.85 | .+ *
Mon 23 Apr 01 . # . [|10532.23 | .+ *
Tue 24 Apr 01 . | #. |10454.34 | + *
Wed 25 Apr 01 . | . # ]|10625.20 | + *
Thu 26 Apr 01 . | . # |10692.35 | + *
Fri 27 Apr 01 . | . # |10810.05 | . + *
Mon 30 Apr 01 . | . # |10734.97 | . + *
Tue 1 May 01 . | . # |10898.34 | . + *
Wed 2 May 01 . | .# |10876.68 | . + *
Thu 3 May 01 . |# . |10795.65 | . + *
Fri 4 May 01 . | . # |10951.24 | . + *
Mon 7 May 01 . | .# |10935.17 | . + *
Tue 8 May 01 . | # |10883.51 | .+ *
Wed 9 May 01 . | # |10866.98 | .+ *
Thu 10 May 01 . | . # |10910.44 | . + *
Fri 11 May 01 . | # |10821.31 | .+ *
Mon 14 May 01 . | . # |10877.33 | .+ *
Tue 15 May 01 . | . # |10872.97 | . + *
Wed 16 May 01 . | . # |11215.92 |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 17 May 01 . | . # |11248.58 | . + *
Fri 18 May 01 . | . # |11301.74 @| . + *
Mon 21 May 01 . | . # |11337.92 @| . + *
Tue 22 May 01 . | .# |11257.24 @| . + *
Wed 23 May 01 . |# . |11105.51 | . + *
Thu 24 May 01 . | # |11122.42 | . + *
Fri 25 May 01 . | #. |11005.37 | .+ *
Tue 29 May 01 . | #. |11039.14 | + *
Wed 30 May 01 . #| . |10872.64 |+. *
Thu 31 May 01 . | . # |10911.94 | + *
Fri 1 Jun 01 . | .# |10990.41 | + *
Mon 4 Jun 01 . | . # |11061.52 | .+ *
Tue 5 Jun 01 . | . # |11175.84 | .+ *
Wed 6 Jun 01 . | #. |11070.24 | . + *
Thu 7 Jun 01 . | .# |11090.74 | . + *
Fri 8 Jun 01 . | #. |10977.00 | .+ *
Mon 11 Jun 01 . |# . |10922.09 | .+ *
Tue 12 Jun 01 . | #. |10948.38 | + *
Wed 13 Jun 01 . | #. |10871.62 | + *
Thu 14 Jun 01 # I . |10690.13 +~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 15 Jun 01 . & . |10623.64 + . *
Mon 18 Jun 01 . & . |10645.38 + . *
Tue 19 Jun 01 . I# . |10596.67 + . *
Wed 20 Jun 01 . I #. |10647.33 + . *
Thu 21 Jun 01 . I .# |10715.43 |+. *
Fri 22 Jun 01 . I #. |10604.59 |+. *
Mon 25 Jun 01 . & . |10504.22 |+. *
Tue 26 Jun 01 . I #. |10472.48 | + *
Wed 27 Jun 01 . | #. |10434.84 | + *
Thu 28 Jun 01 . | . # |10566.21 | + *
Fri 29 Jun 01 . | . # |10502.40 | + *
Mon 2 Jul 01 . | . # |10593.72 | .+ *
Tue 3 Jul 01 . | # |10571.11 | . + *
Thu 5 Jul 01 . # . |10479.86 | .+ *
Fri 6 Jul 01 # I . |10252.68 |~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 9 Jul 01 . I# . |10299.40 |+. *
Tue 10 Jul 01 . #I . |10175.64 + . *
Wed 11 Jul 01 .# I . {|10241.02 |-. *
Thu 12 Jul 01 . I # ]|10478.99 |-. *
Fri 13 Jul 01 . | .# }|10539.06 |+. *
Mon 16 Jul 01 . #I . |10472.12 + . *
Tue 17 Jul 01 . | # |10606.39 |+. *
Wed 18 Jul 01 . I# . |10569.83 | + *
Thu 19 Jul 01 . | .# |10610.00 | + *
Fri 20 Jul 01 . |# . |10576.65 |+. *
Mon 23 Jul 01 . #I . |10424.42 |+. *
Tue 24 Jul 01 # I . {|10241.12 + . *
Wed 25 Jul 01 . I # |10405.67 + . *
Thu 26 Jul 01 . | .# }|10455.63 + . *
Fri 27 Jul 01 . | .# |10416.67 |+. *
Mon 30 Jul 01 . | .# |10401.72 | + *
Tue 31 Jul 01 . | . # |10522.81 | . + *
Wed 1 Aug 01 . | .# |10510.01 | . + *
Thu 2 Aug 01 . | .# |10551.18 | . + *
Fri 3 Aug 01 . | # |10512.78 | . + *
Mon 6 Aug 01 . |# . |10401.31 | .+ *
Tue 7 Aug 01 . | .# |10458.74 | .+ *
Wed 8 Aug 01 . # . |10293.50 | + *
Thu 9 Aug 01 . | #. |10298.56 | + *
Fri 10 Aug 01 . | .# |10416.25 | + *
Mon 13 Aug 01 . | # |10415.91 | + *
Tue 14 Aug 01 . | .# |10412.17 | + *
Wed 15 Aug 01 . | # |10345.95 | .+ *
Thu 16 Aug 01 . |# . |10392.52 | .+ *
Fri 17 Aug 01 . #| . |10240.78 | + *
Mon 20 Aug 01 . | # |10320.07 | + *
Tue 21 Aug 01 . | #. |10174.14 |+. *
Wed 22 Aug 01 . | .# |10276.90 |+. *
Thu 23 Aug 01 . | #. |10229.15 | + *
Fri 24 Aug 01 . | . # |10423.17 | .+ *
Mon 27 Aug 01 . | #. |10382.35 | .+ *
Tue 28 Aug 01 . # . |10222.03 | + *
Wed 29 Aug 01 . # . |10090.90 |+. *
Thu 30 Aug 01 # I . | 9919.58 +~.~~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 31 Aug 01 . I # | 9949.75 + . *
Tue 4 Sep 01 . I #. | 9997.49 + . *
Wed 5 Sep 01 # I . {|10033.27 |-. *
Thu 6 Sep 01 # . I . | 9840.84 | - *
Fri 7 Sep 01 # . I . | 9605.85 | - *
Mon 10 Sep 01 # I . | 9605.51 | .- *
Mon 17 Sep 01 # . I . * | 8920.70 |~.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 18 Sep 01 # . I . | 8903.40 @| . - *
Wed 19 Sep 01 # . I . | 8759.13 @| . - *
Thu 20 Sep 01 # . I . | 8376.21 @|~.~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 21 Sep 01 # . I . | 8235.81 @| . - *
Mon 24 Sep 01 . & . | 8603.86 @| . - *
Tue 25 Sep 01 # I . | 8659.97 | . - *
Wed 26 Sep 01 # . I . | 8567.39 | . - *
Thu 27 Sep 01 # I . | 8681.42 | . - *
Fri 28 Sep 01 . I #. | 8847.56 | - *
========================================================================
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": Last issue, I said that I was getting interested in bottom-fishing here, maybe in September. So I bottom-fished (see Phoenix
portfolio), right in the midst of an intensely oversold period, as indicated by the
asterisks immediately following the numerical averages. Time will tell if this was a
wise thing to do.
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND ____________________________
Mon 29 Jan 01 . | . # | 2838.34 | . + *
Tue 30 Jan 01 . | .# | 2838.35 | .+ *
Wed 31 Jan 01 . | # | 2772.73 | .+ *
Thu 1 Feb 01 . | .# | 2782.79 | . + *
Fri 2 Feb 01 . # . | 2660.50 | .+ *
Mon 5 Feb 01 . |# . [| 2643.21 | + *
Tue 6 Feb 01 . | .# | 2664.49 | + *
Wed 7 Feb 01 . #I . {| 2607.82 |+. *
Thu 8 Feb 01 . I# . | 2562.06 |+. *
Fri 9 Feb 01 # I . | 2470.97 +~.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 12 Feb 01 . I #. | 2489.66 + . *
Tue 13 Feb 01 . #I . | 2427.72 |-. *
Wed 14 Feb 01 . I #. | 2491.40 + . *
Thu 15 Feb 01 . I . # | 2552.91 |+. *
Fri 16 Feb 01 # . I . | 2425.38 + . *
Tue 20 Feb 01 # . I . | 2318.35 |-. *
Wed 21 Feb 01 # . I . | 2268.94 |~-~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 Feb 01 #. I . | 2244.96 | .- *
Fri 23 Feb 01 # I . | 2262.51 | . - *
Mon 26 Feb 01 . I #. | 2308.50 | .- *
Tue 27 Feb 01 # . I . | 2207.82 | .- *
Wed 28 Feb 01 #. I . | 2151.83 | .- *
Thu 1 Mar 01 .# I . | 2183.37 | .- *
Fri 2 Mar 01 # . I . | 2117.63 | .- *
Mon 5 Mar 01 . & . | 2142.92 | . - *
Tue 6 Mar 01 . I .# | 2204.43 | - *
Wed 7 Mar 01 . & . | 2223.92 |-. *
Thu 8 Mar 01 # I . | 2168.73 |-. *
Fri 9 Mar 01 # . I . | 2052.78 |~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 12 Mar 01 # . I . | 1923.36 | .- *
Tue 13 Mar 01 .# I . | 2014.78 | . - *
Wed 14 Mar 01 # . I . | 1972.09 @| . - *
Thu 15 Mar 01 # . I . | 1940.71 @| . - *
Fri 16 Mar 01 # . I . | 1890.91 @| . *-
Mon 19 Mar 01 .# I . | 1951.18 | . - *
Tue 20 Mar 01 # . I . | 1857.44 @|~.~*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 21 Mar 01 # . I . | 1830.23 @| . - *
Thu 22 Mar 01 # I . | 1897.70 | . - *
Fri 23 Mar 01 .# I . | 1928.68 | . - *
Mon 26 Mar 01 # I . | 1918.49 | . - *
Tue 27 Mar 01 . & . | 1972.26 | .- *
Wed 28 Mar 01 # . I . | 1854.13 | . - *
Thu 29 Mar 01 # . I . | 1820.57 | . - *
Fri 30 Mar 01 . #I . | 1840.26 | . - *
Mon 2 Apr 01 # . I . | 1782.97 | . - *
Tue 3 Apr 01 # . I . | 1673.00 @|~.~~*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 4 Apr 01 # . I . | 1638.80 @| . - *
Thu 5 Apr 01 . I #. | 1785.00 | . - *
Fri 6 Apr 01 # . I . | 1720.36 @| . - *
Mon 9 Apr 01 .# I . | 1745.71 | . - *
Tue 10 Apr 01 . I # | 1852.03 | .- *
Wed 11 Apr 01 . I #. | 1898.95 |-. *
Thu 12 Apr 01 . I # | 1961.43 |-. *
Mon 16 Apr 01 # I . | 1909.57 + . *
Tue 17 Apr 01 . & . | 1923.22 |+. *
Wed 18 Apr 01 . | . # | 2079.44 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 19 Apr 01 . | . # | 2182.14 | + *
Fri 20 Apr 01 . | #. | 2163.41 | + *
Mon 23 Apr 01 # | . | 2059.32 | + *
Tue 24 Apr 01 . #| . | 2016.61 |+. *
Wed 25 Apr 01 . | .# | 2059.80 |+. *
Thu 26 Apr 01 . # . | 2034.88 + . *
Fri 27 Apr 01 . | .# | 2075.68 + . *
Mon 30 Apr 01 . | . # }| 2116.24 | + *
Tue 1 May 01 . | . # | 2168.24 | . + *
Wed 2 May 01 . | . # | 2220.60 | . + *
Thu 3 May 01 . # . | 2146.20 | . + *
Fri 4 May 01 . | . # | 2191.53 | . + *
Mon 7 May 01 . | #. | 2173.57 | . + *
Tue 8 May 01 . | . # | 2198.77 | .+ *
Wed 9 May 01 . |# . | 2156.63 | + *
Thu 10 May 01 . | #. | 2128.86 | .+ *
Fri 11 May 01 . | #. | 2107.43 | + *
Mon 14 May 01 . |# . | 2081.92 | + *
Tue 15 May 01 . | # | 2085.58 |+. *
Wed 16 May 01 . | . # | 2166.44 | + *
Thu 17 May 01 . | . # | 2193.68 | .+ *
Fri 18 May 01 . | .# | 2198.88 | .+ *
Mon 21 May 01 . | . # | 2305.59 | . + *
Tue 22 May 01 . | .# | 2313.85 | . + *
Wed 23 May 01 . |# . | 2243.48 | . + *
Thu 24 May 01 . | . # | 2282.02 | . + *
Fri 25 May 01 . | # | 2251.03 | . + *
Tue 29 May 01 . # . | 2175.54 | + *
Wed 30 May 01 # I . {| 2084.50 |+. *
Thu 31 May 01 . I . # ]| 2110.49 | + *
Fri 1 Jun 01 . | . # }| 2149.44 | + *
Mon 4 Jun 01 . | .# | 2155.93 | + *
Tue 5 Jun 01 . | . # | 2233.66 | .+ *
Wed 6 Jun 01 . | # | 2217.73 | . + *
Thu 7 Jun 01 . | . # | 2264.00 | . + *
Fri 8 Jun 01 . # . | 2215.10 | .+ *
Mon 11 Jun 01 . #I . | 2170.78 | + *
Tue 12 Jun 01 . I# . {| 2169.95 |+. *
Wed 13 Jun 01 . #I . | 2121.66 + . *
Thu 14 Jun 01 # . I . | 2044.07 | - *
Fri 15 Jun 01 # I . | 2028.43 | - *
Mon 18 Jun 01 # . I . | 1988.63 | .- *
Tue 19 Jun 01 .# I . | 1992.66 | . - *
Wed 20 Jun 01 . #I . | 2031.24 | . - *
Thu 21 Jun 01 . I# . | 2058.76 | - *
Fri 22 Jun 01 . & . | 2034.84 | - *
Mon 25 Jun 01 . I #. | 2050.87 + . *
Tue 26 Jun 01 . I# . | 2064.62 + . *
Wed 27 Jun 01 . I # | 2074.74 |+. *
Thu 28 Jun 01 . I . # | 2125.46 | + *
Fri 29 Jun 01 . | . # | 2160.54 | .+ *
Mon 2 Jul 01 . I# . | 2148.72 | .+ *
Tue 3 Jul 01 . #I . | 2140.80 | + *
Thu 5 Jul 01 #. I . | 2080.11 |+. *
Fri 6 Jul 01 # . I . | 2004.16 |-. *
Mon 9 Jul 01 . & . | 2026.71 | - *
Tue 10 Jul 01 # . I . | 1962.79 | . - *
Wed 11 Jul 01 .# I . | 1972.04 | . - *
Thu 12 Jul 01 . I . # | 2075.74 | - *
Fri 13 Jul 01 . I #. | 2084.79 + . *
Mon 16 Jul 01 .# I . | 2029.12 |-. *
Tue 17 Jul 01 . I # | 2067.32 |+. *
Wed 18 Jul 01 .# I . | 2016.17 |+. *
Thu 19 Jul 01 . I # | 2046.59 + . *
Fri 20 Jul 01 . #I . | 2029.37 + . *
Mon 23 Jul 01 . #I . | 1988.56 + . *
Tue 24 Jul 01 #. I . | 1959.24 |-. *
Wed 25 Jul 01 . #I . | 1984.32 |-. *
Thu 26 Jul 01 . I # | 2022.96 |-. *
Fri 27 Jul 01 . I# . | 2029.07 |-. *
Mon 30 Jul 01 . & . | 2017.84 |-. *
Tue 31 Jul 01 . I #. | 2027.13 |+. *
Wed 1 Aug 01 . I .# | 2068.38 | + *
Thu 2 Aug 01 . | #. | 2087.38 |+. *
Fri 3 Aug 01 . & . | 2066.33 |+. *
Mon 6 Aug 01 . & . | 2034.26 |+. *
Tue 7 Aug 01 . & . | 2027.79 |+. *
Wed 8 Aug 01 # I . | 1966.36 |-. *
Thu 9 Aug 01 .# I . | 1963.32 |-. *
Fri 10 Aug 01 .# I . | 1956.47 | - *
Mon 13 Aug 01 . I # | 1982.25 |-. *
Tue 14 Aug 01 . #I . | 1964.53 |-. *
Wed 15 Aug 01 # I . | 1918.89 |-. *
Thu 16 Aug 01 .# I . | 1930.32 |-. *
Fri 17 Aug 01 #. I . | 1867.01 | - *
Mon 20 Aug 01 . & . | 1881.35 | - *
Tue 21 Aug 01 #. I . | 1831.30 |~.-~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 22 Aug 01 . & . | 1860.01 | - *
Thu 23 Aug 01 .# I . | 1842.97 | - *
Fri 24 Aug 01 . I # | 1916.80 |-. *
Mon 27 Aug 01 . #I . | 1912.41 |-. *
Tue 28 Aug 01 #. I . | 1864.98 |-. *
Wed 29 Aug 01 #. I . | 1841.17 | - *
Thu 30 Aug 01 # . I . | 1791.68 | .- *
Fri 31 Aug 01 . #I . | 1805.43 | . - *
Tue 4 Sep 01 # . I . | 1770.78 | . - *
Wed 5 Sep 01 # . I . | 1759.01 | . - *
Fri 7 Sep 01 # . I . | 1687.70 | . - *
Mon 10 Sep 01 #. I . | 1695.38 | . - *
Mon 17 Sep 01 # . I . | 1579.55 @|*.~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 18 Sep 01 # . I . | 1555.08 @| . - *
Wed 19 Sep 01 # . I . | 1527.80 @| . - *
Thu 20 Sep 01 # . I . | 1470.93 @| . - *
Fri 21 Sep 01 # . I . | 1423.19 @| . * -
Mon 24 Sep 01 . & . | 1499.40 @| . - *
Tue 25 Sep 01 #. I . | 1501.64 @| . - *
Wed 26 Sep 01 # . I . | 1464.04 @| . - *
Thu 27 Sep 01 # . I . | 1460.71 @| . - *
Fri 28 Sep 01 . & . | 1498.80 | . - *
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"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces: NEXT ISSUE - will appear in late October. /Nick Chase