SUMMARY - "PIG":
The Contrarian's View is published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. Material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet through the World-Wide Web service at Assumption College. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, Open URL http://nick.assumption.edu. Mailed paper subscriptions, one year for $39 to The Contrarian's View, 132 Moreland Street, Worcester, Massachusetts 01609. There is a limit of 50 paid subscribers at one time; please check for availability before sending any money. Sorry, Visa and Mastercard are not available. Overseas subscription rate, U.S. $54. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! ISSN 1536-4429 Phone: (508) 757-2881
You will, of course, recognize that what I'm doing here is killing time until the stock market does something interesting. But it's fun, so let's proceed:
"Ugly Bear" Award for 2000. And the candidates are:
Although I very rarely make stock market predictions, I will have to break my vow of prognostication silence. The stock market is definitely a lot more vulnerable than people think at this point. It is going to become obvious fairly soon that we are well on our way towards secular inflation.... Once we get to this point, the selling will not be like anything we've seen over the past five years. The Fed has proven itself to be spineless in the face of the mania but it is going to collapse with or without their intervention. The only difference is that because of the Fed's gross negligence (future historians will see their inaction as such) the collapse will be far worse for everyone. - Marc Sexton (February 2000 issue).
Every financial mania in history has been followed by a collapse that takes prices to below where they were when the uptrend began, which in the current case is Dow is 777 in 1982. I do not know when it will bottom because we will be dealing with a major corrective process that could last a century. It will be a great fourth wave, balancing the second wave, a bear market that lasted from 1720 to 1784. The first major low should occur in 2003-2004.... The gunslingers who have ignored historic overvaluation to "make money" in the past decade will not get out for the down move. Their financial dreams will dissolve. Would you rather be that person, or the one who cashed out early and avoided getting caught up in the mania? - Robert Prechter (May 2000 issue).
Every major index has topped out. The dollar is not only the most recent but also the most important. A high dollar is what supports the whole bubble. Imagine the US economy as a dot.com stock. It loses money every day - about a billion dollars of net current account losses. But foreign investors keep buying its stocks and bonds. So, the money is still coming in. A rising dollar means that more money is coming in than is needed to cover the losses. But someday soon - as I have been saying for long enough to prove that my timing is bad - investors will tire buying U.S. paper...the dollar will fall...and the bubble will be over. - Bill Bonner (July 2000 issue).
You'd never know there was a crisis on Wall Street. Like the rest of America, the investment community thinks the high price of energy is just temporary. Prices are not going to come down. In fact, they are going to continue to soar. - Stephen Leeb [editor, Personal Finance] (September 2000 issue).
The termination of the 18-year-old equities bull market that we predicted for the September-October time frame is coming to pass. We have warned you since January that this fall would witness the most severe and cataclysmic stock market collapse since 1929, if not greater. That scenario is about to be realized. The fatal plunge should commence within two weeks of the time of this writing and will continue - with intermittent reactions - into November. Indeed, it will be most interesting to see if another of our earlier predictions will come to pass, namely that the U.S. presidential elections will be suspended when things get out of hand.... The final three months of 2000 will represent a time of major and, for all too many, earth-shattering change. The third week of October, for all intents and purposes, represents the beginning of a massive financial earthquake, an earthquake that will hit with its full force and magnitude in November and will have pulverized the U.S. financial sector by February. After a brief respite - perhaps lasting the better part of 2001 - the shock waves will continue devastating the vestiges of the American Economic Miracle into the Year 2004 and beyond. Get ready for the event of a lifetime, coming to a town near you. - Clif Droke [October 5 and 7, 2000] (October 2000 issue).
The bogus numbers about U.S. GDP and productivity growth for the second quarter have once postponed the day of reckoning for the U.S. financial markets and the dollar. The great digital divide between America and Europe is not in the economies. It is in vast differences in statistical measurement and in the propaganda. Fed members in general and Mr. Greenspan specifically play a key role in misinforming the public. Nevertheless, the rapidly deteriorating fundamentals of the economy and the financial system - trade deficit, savings, indebtedness - are inexorably leading to the bursting of the bubble. We regard it as quite near, yet precise timing is not possible. - Kurt Richebacher
And here I will offer a prediction: The decisive event...which will turn the dream of stock market riches into a nightmare...will be the fall of the dollar. Few Americans care about the dollar. Perhaps only those of us who live overseas and see the daily price fluctuations notice it. But it is upon the King Dollar that the U.S. economy and its markets rest. But the dollar is a strange monarch...because it depends on foreigners for its power.... If I am right, the dollar will soon be pulled from his throne and de-capitated.... While Europeans and Asians produced cheese, wine, shoes and walkmen...the U.S. produced dollars. For many years, dollars have been traded for the foreigners' products with no trace of regret on either side.... At least $400 billion comes back into the U.S. this year - to finance the current account deficit. That money comes willingly, as long as people have faith 1) in the U.S. economy and 2) and in the superior rate of return from U.S. investments. On both points, faith is being shaken. Stocks are down. And now the U.S. economy is slowing down. - Bill Bonner (November 2000 issue).
The winner is: Clif Droke, for making an outrageous, specifically-timed prediction of a crash when nothing even remotely resembling such an event occurred in October 2000. Somebody should remind Clif that the Fed can prop up the averages through futures buying, if need be.
"Ugly Bear" Award for 1999. And the candidates are:
If the stock market dives, which I think it will do in the second half of this year, then it will take the US consumer and economy with it.... I don't know when exactly it will top, but I have no problem at all with lightening up and taking profits right now. - Ed Yardeni (February 1999 issue).
Were it not for the situation on Wall Street, I might now be leaning towards a scenario of recovery in business confidence and investment, with the ultimately inevitable "Great Reckoning" put off to some future time. But the Wall Street Sword of Damocles hangs there; and the rest of the world remains too vulnerable to withstand a market crash in America. My favoured scenario now is that the last act of the unfolding drama will be exactly this - a Wall Street crash. Followed by the obvious effects on the rest of the world. But.... there is no way to tell how long all this can go on before that happens.- Max Moseley (May 1999 issue)
Many stock market mutual funds are, in essence, flat dead broke. If they had to liquidate to return investor's money, they would go under. Their massive derivative positions and borrowing, coupled with the biggest drop in cash flows in four years, means that liquidation will collapse the stock market and put them under water. - Nick Guarino (July 1999 issue).
What we are now witnessing is a continuation of a policy maintained by the Fed throughout the tenure of its current chairman, that is, any and all threats to liquidity in the financial markets are met with increased credit creation and consequently, an increase in the money supply. Eventually, this policy will lead to much higher consumer and producer prices, higher nominal interest rates and a collapse in the exchange value of the US dollar. - Steve Saville (November 1999 issue).
If a Russian default almost took down one company which required Greenspan to bail it out to save the Western banking system, what do you think a Russian collapse, in the context of Y2K, will do? Can anyone say $2500 an ounce gold? OK, maybe only $2000. - Doug McIntosh (November 1999 issue).
Wall Street generally believes what it wants to believe, that Y2K will be a benign non-issue - a blip with no major problems. Corporate America sold the Street that bill of goods. Corporations regularly promote themselves and deceive. It is human nature.... But in general, U.S. corporate Y2K compliance progress is one of the biggest corporate deceptions I have seen in 30 years of analytical experience. The problem is that Wall Street didn't have the analytical experience of IT competence, nor the IT infrastructure values from which to ask intelligent questions. - Paul Cohen [President of Dirty Dozen Research: No Agenda] (November 1999 issue).
The winner is: Nick Guarino, for his flat-out wrong statement that many mutual funds are essentially broke. Mutual funds are worth their net asset value, less liquidation expenses if they must liquidate. Most mutual funds own stocks and do not have extensive derivative positions or borrowings, though they might have rapidly-shrinking asset values in the face of massive redemptions. (A market collapse might make you broke, but it won't make them broke, as the popping of the Internet bubble has amply demonstrated.)
"Ugly Bear" Award for 1998. And the candidates are:
Could an impeachment inquiry lead to a stock market meltdown? Absolutely. The market detests uncertainty, and proceedings against a sitting president will provide it. Look what happened with Richard Nixon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked in January 1973, when the Watergate break-in was first revealed. It had fallen 30% by Aug. 9, 1974, the date Nixon resigned. Of course, there were other reasons as well for this sickening decline, but ittook nine years for the Dow to get back to its pre-Watergate level. - James K. Glassman (January 1998 issue).
We have now reached a situation where corporate Japan, Nippon banks, and the Japanese government ALL require a massive influx of money. If one of these entities does not get these funds, then the whole system collapses. All three entities are technically bankrupt, all three require money, and except for the printing press at the Bank of Japan, there is no source for this money. Up until the Asian crises, the Japanese banks were able to supply sufficient liquidity to the system. Now the demand for liquidity has DRAMATICALLY increased, but the supply is contracting. Japan will fail in 1998.- John Kutyn (January 1998 issue).
The best thing about Medicare's nightmare is that we will wake up on January 1, 2000, knowing that Medicare is no more. Those 80 million checks per month will not be in the mail. (Then there is the question of the mails: the Postal Service is not 2000-compliant.) ....The Welfare State has only a few more months to go. The experiment is just about over. Free at last! Free at last! - Gary North (January 1998 issue).
And while it might be nice to think an investment bubble can level off and consolidate for several years to give fundamentals time to catch up, the human psychology simply doesn't permit it - never has, never will. - Jim Stack (May 1998 issue).
Japan has far worse immediate problems than Y2K. Japan will not last another year. By this time next year it will be smoldering in ruins. Indonesia has just begun the 'bad' things that are going to happen. Korea is sunk. 3000 companies PER MONTH are going bankrupt. Hong Kong. Crashing real estate values and the Hang Seng holding on by its toes. China. Don't make me laugh. They are in such bad shape that if they don't devalue the Yuan, they are dead meat. And if they do that, they torpedo the rest of Asia. Only a matter of time. It is only going to take just a little more...... and off the edge they go. Like an enormous anchor with the chain tied to the rest of the world's ankles. For a number of years I have been very closely watching the enormous debt balloon inflate. It can not stand much more. More and more 'money' has been pumped in. The underlying problems have NEVER been addressed. Good money after bad. And now, the jig is up. As the Yen sinks in value it makes their already impossible debt situation even more difficult to pay off, taking more and more Yen and therefore more and more labor to pay off a debt that can not be repaid. Just sinking further and further into financial oblivion. This is why I bugged out in the first place. It will happen before Y2K hits. - Paul Milne (June 1998 issue).
Coming up is the closest thing to a no-brainer you will ever see in the investment world: We are currently enduring the greatest investment mania known to mankind, and history tells us that it will crash (regardless of what the herd says); only the timing is in doubt. But here comes Y2K, any reasonable assessment of which will tell you there will be serious economic damage come January 1, 2000, and possibly earlier. So we have a market ripe for a meltdown, and a time period, now less than 18 months, beyond which the mania cannot possibly continue. Are you brain-dead if you don't take advantage of this no-brainer? Yes. - Nick Chase (July 1998 issue).
There are more than hints today of a crash coming in the Western markets, if you know what generally preceded history's crashes. Yes, I am stubborn. I was stubborn in the four years after our 1978 book that predicted a super-bull market, and I'm just as stubborn now that the super-bull market is ending.... if the Dow is not in triple digits by 2004, I will say I blew it. - Bob Prechter (July 1998 issue).
We strongly suspect there is now direct intervention by the Central Bank of Japan in supporting the Nikkei at the 13,000 level. We also suspect direct intervention by major Wall Street firms (if not the Federal Reserve itself) in supporting the U.S. stock index futures market. Only that could explain the internal divergence. This market is literally crumbling from underneath the DJIA. We feel that WHEN (not IF) the DJIA breaks under 7500, it'll be like a hot knife slicing through butter. - Jim Stack (October 1998 issue).
The bull market in stocks is over because the credit bubble has burst. Lower short-term interest rates and an attempt to print money will not revive it. The easy money that fueled stock markets around the world has dried up, and the deflationary forces that accompany the bust side of the boom will swamp government monetary and fiscal policy until the excesses are wrung out of the economy. - David Tice (October 1998 issue).
I tell you - with a broken heart - the next three months are going to be ominous and shattering here in America. A full-blown depression is soon coming to this nation and the whole world. It cannot be avoided. America and the world are now leaderless. We could be closer to the end than any of us could imagine. - David Wilkerson (October 1998 issue).
Has Russia been saved yet? Is the Southeast Asian economic crisis over? Is Japan's economy undergoing resurgence? Has the yen-dollar exchange rate stabilized? Is the credit crunch over? Is Long Term Capital Management the only hedge fund casualty? Has Bill Clinton given up use of a private Gestapo to destroy his critics? If your answers to the above questions are mostly Yes, then buy stock. Be my guest. If No, then get ready for the massacre. Let the ruination begin. - J. Orlin Grabbe (November 1998 issue).
The winner is: John Kutyn, for "Japan will fail in 1998". As of today, Japan is still around and, in fact, there was a nice round-trip rocket ride in Japanese stocks in 1999-2000. (If anything, the situation in Japan today looks dicier than in 1998.)
"Ugly Bear" Award for 1997. And the candidates are:
The mass of investors... - doubtlessly - they'll... be... wrong again. It has to be that way, or colored, carbonated sugar water stock would not sell at 43 times earnings - and six year old boys would not be telling you how much money they're making in their mutual funds. We are close to a nasty turn-around - the last buyer is already in the market! - Grant Knutson (May 1997 issue).
The signs of a looming deflation are there to see. We are heading into it, and loose money, far from preventing it, can only make it worse in the long run by stoking ever greater excesses now. Admittedly, over-indebtedness is difficult to define and measure.... The best gauge is what has been labeled the 'debt trap.' A debtor sinks into the debt trap whenever the interest payments on his existing debt begin to exceed his new borrowings. After the public borrowing orgies of the past twenty years, virtually all governments in the industrial countries now are caught in this trap, and are being driven deeper into it by the monster of compound interest. - Kurt Richebacher (June 1997 issue).
Winner Grant Knutson should surely have realized by now that, in 1997, the last buyer was not in the market.
"Ugly Bear" Award for 1996. And the candidates are:
We are about to experience one of the worst bear markets since the 1929 stock market crash. It will not announce itself beforehand and allow the "Easy Street" money a chance to exit! Remember: It's better to be a "year too early versus a day too late." - Peter Grandich (July 1996 issue).
I expect the dropoff in new cash to continue, more sharply after we're past the holiday season, so the most likely time for the bear market to resume (or begin, in the case of blue-chip stocks) is in January, with the meltdown arriving in the spring. I have urged everybody, even you young folks just getting started, to get out of all stocks and mutual funds except gold and money-market funds, regardless of what my, or anybody else's indicators say. Time is quickly running out.... don't delay. - Nick Chase (October 1996 issue).
Are stocks overvalued? Let's do some back-of-the-envelope calculations. Stocks have historically yielded about 5 percentage points higher in dividend payouts and share buy-backs than interest payments on bonds. This is considered a risk premium for the uncertainty inherent in owning stocks as compared to the fixed payments promised by bond covenants. If we add 5 percent to the recent yield of about 7 percent on long-term U.S. Treasury securities, we obtain a stock yield of about 12 percent. That is the return that stock owners would ordinarily require. But in the year 1995, dividends and stock buy-backs for publicly-traded companies were about $157 billion. The stock market value of these same firms is currently about $7.2 trillion. This implies a return of about 2.18 percent -- more than five times smaller than it should be. For stocks to rise to a 12 percent yield would require the value of traded companies to fall to about $1.3 trillion. This value, $1.3 trillion, is about 18 percent of the current market value of $7.2 trillion. If we apply this ratio to the Dow Jones Industrial Average of about 6000 (although in truth the Dow is not really representative of the market as a whole), we obtain a projected Dow of 1090. (That is, $157 billion/.12 = $1.30833 trillion. Then 1.30833/7.2 =.1817. Finally. 6000 x .1817 = 1090.) Of course, the relationships could hold in other ways without the stock market falling. Dividends and stock buy-backs could increase to $864 billion in 1996 and subsequent years. Fat chance. Or bond yields could fall to negative 3 percent. Fat chance again. Or bond yields could fall to zero and the risk premium on stocks fall to 2 percent, and the Dow could stay at around 6000. I seriously doubt it. Or bond yields could fall to zero and the risk premium on stocks fall to 1 percent, and the Dow could rise to 13,000! Think like this, and you are a lemming. Something is going to give. In equilibrium (that is, after the shit has hit the fan), all of these numbers and relationships will have changed. But one thing is for sure: Stock prices are going to be a lot lower than they are now. And the screams of the infants will be heard throughout the land. - J. Orlin Grabbe (October 1996 issue).
And the winner is.... er.... uh.... me, for expecting a bear market in 1997. Yes, this was just
five weeks before Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comment. Silly me, I expected
him to actually do something about reining in the exuberance, not just badmouth it while
keeping the money-printing presses rolling. But I was stuck back in the mode of the Fed of
the 1950s and 1960s, when the Fed
actually followed up its warnings with actions. I thought Greenspan was in the same mold; I
misjudged him. Then we actually did get the beginnings of a crash in the fall of 1997 (so I
was six months early), which the Fed righted; and the majority of stocks peaked in April
1998, so in this respect I was a year and a half early. Not great timing.
Sure the Fed has been cutting rates aggressively, but valuations are still out of whack. The Dow's P/E is now 25. High valuations and high levels of bullishness? Rock bottom dividend yields? This is the sort of stuff that we are supposed to see at the bottom of a bear market? I don't think so. I think that this makes as much sense as Nasdaq 5,000. Folks are fooling themselves if they think that we are nearing the beginning of another secular bull market. But why would I expect anyone to listen now any more than they did when the Nasdaq was breaking millennial records every few months? Maybe a few years from now it will be more clearly understood what a bear market actually is. Perhaps we should ask someone who invested in the Nikkei back in the 1980s...how long will they wait to just break even? - Marc Sexton
No one fully understands what went wrong in Japan. But almost every economist in North America is sure that it won't be repeated here, whatever it is. - Bill Bonner
It may be that, as was the case in the 1990s, the global financial system can continue to expand and that whenever glitches occur - such as the S&L crisis, the Mexican crisis, the Asian crisis, and the LTCM debacle - the authorities can solve the problems temporarily by putting fresh paint on the cracks through easing monetary conditions and letting credit grow at an ever faster pace. But it ought to be clear that at some time in the future (maybe sooner than expected), something will go awry. Then what? The outstanding derivatives positions will then be unlikely to be settled. This outcome is, in my opinion, a certainty. At this point I am in no position to tell our readers when this calamity will occur, but given the complacency and the intellect of the central bankers, it is a question of when - and not if. - Marc Faber
Experience has taught that the authorities will usually do whatever it takes to paper over the damage caused by the bursting of a speculative bubble - if for no other reason than to preserve their own legitimacy. While such intervention may ultimately fail, in the meantime it can make things uncomfortable for overly-bearish financial journalists, portfolio managers and stock analysts. - Michael Belkin
The idea of a V-shaped economic recovery starting in autumn or winter has, in general, apparently been swallowed. Very few, however, have ever understood in the first place why the U.S. economy has slowed down so dramatically in spite of huge infusions of money and credit. Post-bubble shocks are a very rare occurrence in history. Who wants to see the true reason? Inordinate excesses in business and consumer borrowing and spending that have accumulated over years have to be unwound before the economy can return to its longer-term sustainable growth path, and this is sure to take years, too. - Kurt Richebacher
Foreigners earn on their U.S.-based investments approximately the same amount of money that Americans earn on their foreign-based investments. I pointed out that this implies -- screams, really -- that the value of Americans' investments abroad equals the value of foreigners' investments here. Despite all the public worrying about the balance of trade deficit, there is no deficit in the income generated from both sides of our border.... One thing is sure: the statistics on assets abroad owned by Americans are incorrect. Another thing is fairly sure: if the U.S. government tries to create economic policies based on these false statistics, it will make big mistakes. As long as this crucial balance remains -- the balance that really matters to investors on both sides of the border -- the imbalance of trade can continue, just as it has for the last decade. - Gary North
There are more voters who are debtors than who are creditors. As a result, it's politically correct now to inflate. - Paul Kasriel
With energy inflation probably peaking and the easing of 'tightness' in labor markets expected to damp wage increases - prices seem likely to be contained. - Alan Greenspan [May 24, 2001]
....this is a bullish monetary climate. In fact, the Federal Reserve has NEVER BEFORE cut the Discount Rate 6 times within 6 months. So one could say this is the most aggressive easing in the Fed's 88-year history. Greenspan is pulling out all stops to prevent a deflationary scenario (like Japan), and we don't want to bet against the Fed on this one. - Jim Stack
The herd is back to graze on tech bargains, meaning apparently the shares of any chipmaker whose warning falls short of outright bankruptcy. - Igor Greenwald
What's wrong with the stock market? Why don't the Fed's actions produce a sustained recovery above the peak in 2000? Because the Fed's policy of keeping short-term interest rates low by creating fiat money is at most a holding action. Cheap money at best keeps corporate borrowers able to sustain present projects, bringing them to completion. The sagging economy offers little hope for these borrowers to make above-average profits, or any profits at all. The Fed is in the business today of creating an economic climate that avoids economic contractions. Greenspan doesn't care about the stock market except as a creator of confidence. - Gary North
Within just two years consumer dissaving poured almost $300 billion into the economy...the absolutely dominating influence on the U.S. economy... The consumer's dissaving binge of 1999- 2000 became the business sector's profit bonanza during those years. - Kurt Richebacher
Look at bank savings account rates and money market rates: under 4%. Then deduct anywhere from 20% to 33% because of income taxes on interest income. The conservative American saver is falling behind. His capital is eroding. He is being reamed by the Federal Reserve System's short-term policy of forcing down short-term interest rates. - Gary North
Greenspan recently commented that rising home values were adding to the wealth of consumers. He should have added a modifier: rising house prices are adding to the 'perceived' wealth of consumers. The house doesn't change as its price goes up. The real value of the house remains the same. But 'taking out equity' gives the homeowner the illusion of spending profits instead of merely borrowing money. The situation is clarified for him, like so many other things, in a genuine recession. The poor schmuck finds that the part that he still owns is worth less than before - while his debt has become, relatively, more important. What can he do? Forget about spending more...he struggles to make ends meet, until he loses his job... - Bill Bonner
Financial risk can more easily be shifted today. But risk shifting is just that - shifting. The amount of risk is not reduced. The mortgage markets have become so "efficient" and competitive that households can very easily "monetize" the equity in their houses. Perhaps that is why homeowners' equity as a percent of the value of their houses has, in recent years, fallen to its lowest level in the postwar period. Easy credit terms on asset-based loans lead to escalating asset prices. Leverage is terrific when asset prices are rising. But it's oppressive when credit terms tighten and asset prices start to fall. - Paul Kasriel
All but 5% of the stocks that crossed the analysts' desks on Wall Street won a buy rating last year. And what do the analysts know? Whatever they learned in their last job... which was writing term papers for professors.... It's ironic that so many people look to Wall Street for guidance. You don't get to be a smart businessperson by going to school or by calling companies from a desk in New York and asking, "Howzit hangin'?" Some book learnin' helps a bit, but experience helps a lot. Let me put it in stark terms: If GlaxoSmithKline wanted to hire a new director of operations for North America, would it give the job to a 22-year-old Wall Street analyst? Not even a "small company" would do that. - Lynn Carpenter
We continue to believe that the U.S. economy is on the mend and that the recent pullback in stock prices is part of an ongoing recovery process that will carry stock prices higher from here. - Joe Battipaglia [Nick's comment: Permabull.]
Unlike with other famous bubbles ... the Internet bubble is riding on rock-solid fundamentals, perhaps stronger than any the market has seen before. Underlying the crazy price increases are the foundations of what could become the early 21st century's leading growth companies... Just because the Internet stock phenomenon looks like a bubble, it isn't a given that the bubble will burst. - Henry Blodget [January 1999]
Top Ten Signs That You Have A Bad Financial Advisor: 10. He/she has begun calling you collect. 9. Can't understand your reluctance to take out a second or third mortgage on your house to raise funds. 8. You hear a lot of crying and moaning in the background whenever your advisor calls you (collect of course). 7. Your financial advisor has started wearing a bulletproof vest. 6. Early last year you received a report titled Nasdaq 10,000 from your financial advisor. 5. Your financial advisor does his or her research by constantly watching CNBC. 4. Your advisor insists on calling the Nasdaq meltdown "a little setback." 3. Your advisor uses the term "average down" in every other sentence. 2. Your advisor still believes that being fully margined was a sound strategy. 1. Your advisor got you in Webvan at 15 and has averaged you down ever since. - Marc Sexton
....You will see how much money it takes to match the purchasing power of $1,000 in 1966. The result: $5,484.57.... After taxes, your investment of $1,000 in 1966 had to net you this much money for you to have broken even on an investment held for 35 years. If the investment, after taxes, is worth twice this -- $10,970 -- then you have made approximately 2% per year on your initial investment of $1,000, not counting any income generated from it. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed yesterday at a good deal less than less 10,970. In early February of 1966, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went over 1,000 on an inter-day basis. It then fell back, and it did not hit 1,000 until 1973. Then it gave that back. Stock market investors were paid dividends, but these fell to about zero in the 1990s after expenses from their mutual funds were deducted. They also paid earned income taxes on any net dividend income, 1966-2001. Then, after selling their shares, they must pay capital gains taxes. This indicates that the standard stock market recommendation to "buy and hold" has paid off poorly in terms of post-tax purchasing power for anyone who bought a typical portfolio of shares early in 1966.... This doesn't mean that smart stock market investors lost.... It means only that "buy and hold" has not been a good recommendation, despite all the hype by academic economists who have made most of their money from the appreciation of their homes. - Gary North [Nick's comment: If you had continually reinvested your dividends in a tax-deferred vehicle, especially through the dismal 1970s.... which most people couldn't do, because IRAs and the like weren't available to everybody back then.... but if you could have done it, "buy and hold" would have been a viable strategy for people retiring today.]
OECD has issued a report called "Towards Global Tax Cooperation".... What OECD says, in its report, is that nations with low tax rates are harmful to the world (!!) economy, and it cited thirty-five countries for "harmful tax competition." Why, people can shift their operations to those "low-tax" countries, or invest there, to take advantage of the lower taxes. It just isn't fair! And if OECD has its way, it won't be allowed. You may be surprised, after laboring nearly half the year just to pay your various taxes, to learn that the United States is one of those "low-tax nations." That being the case, you might assume that the U.S. would be opposed to the OECD scheme, which is to establish a cartel of nations to conspire to eliminate "low-tax" rates in those countries which are insolent and unfeeling enough to allow such things. Not so. The damn fools in Washington think the OECD idea is terrific, and would like to see Americans taxed more. Treasury Secretary Summers, for example, thought highly of OECD's plan. He believed there was a "need to address globally the problem of harmful tax competition." - Paul Hein
The difference between what Japan exports and imports shrank from 649 billion yen (June) to 335 billion yen (July). This is a 48% drop in one month. On this news the most widely monitored stock index in Japan (the Nikkei 225) fell to its lowest level in 17 (that's s-e-v-e-n-t-e-e-n) years. - Don Smith
The weakest link among the major economies is Japan. The new Prime Minister is tightening fiscal policy dramatically as part of a program to restructure the economy. The Bank of Japan responded this week by promising to pump up the money supply. I'm skeptical: If their zero-interest rate policy has failed so far, I doubt that the new "quantitative" monetary (or "super-zero-interest-rate") approach will do much better. Perhaps the BOJ should rent helicopters and drop yen all over Tokyo. Even that might not work since workers are facing rising job insecurity and are in no hurry to buy when prices are falling. - Ed Yardeni
During Japan's bubble, the country was covered from end to end with golf courses. In the US bubble, America has been covered with cables. Apparently there are now enough miles of optical cables to circle the world 1,566 times and only 3% [of their capacity] is currently being used. - Andrew Smithers [Nick's comment: There's a bottleneck to getting inexpensive high-speed Internet access into the home. Eliminate that bottleneck, and the fiber will soon be used to capacity.]
Oh Amazon...another quarter gone by and Amazon.com has gone nowhere but down the river! 17 consecutive quarterly losses. More than 5 billion books sold...and AMZN has 50 cents of debt to show for every one of them. What a company! - Bill Bonner
Nationalizing income? Yes, that's exactly what the 16th Amendment did. Today, the federal government owns everyone's income and, by setting the percentage of tax to be paid, in effect provides each citizen with an allowance. Sometimes they are good to us and permit us to keep more of our money. Sometimes they are not so good and permit us to keep less. But what matters is not the exact percentage of income tax but rather the fact that government officials have the power to set the percentage. Assume that I am your pharaoh and, as such, have the power to force you to work for me seven days a week. I decide to be nice to you and force you to work for me only one day a week. Does my benevolence change the nature of our relationship? Of course not. You remain my slave even though you are working six days a week for yourself, because I'm the one giving you permission to do so. If I'm the one setting the percentage of time you must devote to me, I am the master and you are the servant. A much more honest and direct approach - one that would truly reflect what the 16th Amendment has done to the American people - would be to impose a 100 percent withholding tax on everyone, enabling all income to flow directly to Washington; each citizen would later be sent a U.S. Treasury check as his governmental allowance. At least then, the American people would be able to see clearly how the passage of the 16th Amendment fundamentally changed their relationship to their government. - Jacob G. Hornberger
Ok, big deal, it is only $300 but in my twenty years of paying taxes this is the first time I've
ever gotten anything back before. If anyone has any complaints please sign your checks over
to me...I can figure out something to do with the money! I've actually heard people complaining about getting their own money back! Does the government have us trained well or what?
- Marc Sexton
OK, quick quiz: When the Fed creates a lot of new money, and there's a recession underway and therefore an unwillingness to put it to work in the real economy, where does it go? Aaahhhh.... you said "stocks", you get the brass ring. It at first goes to bail out those who took on too much debt, then as confidence returns and the next borrowing cycle begins, it gravitates to financial assets and drives up their prices. Just the right tonic for all of those baby-boomers who lost money in their 401(k)s last year, and haven't made any of it back yet this year.
Meanwhile, the small differential between inflation-indexed and nonindexed Treasuries tells us that a deflationary situation, the "Japanese scenario" I expect, is in fact unfolding. But I also follow the historical odds, as I have been roundly criticized by the permabears for doing.... so for the short term, the Fed is likely to avoid the mistake the Japanese central bank made a decade ago, and will succeed in reigniting some part of the bubble. I expect we'll get "Japanese scenario with a twist", a bubble a la "Nifty Fifty", probably beginning in the fall and extending into late 2002 or early 2003, before the next and much more severe bear market. The Fed will lose control, but slowly over a decade, just as control was lost in the 1970s.
Once in a while you will see a "prediction" of an imminent thousand-point or more plunge in the Dow as the "bear market" returns with a vengeance. Look at the graph again: No way, when the Fed is easing this aggressively. For such predictions to come true, there would have to be a sudden, overwhelming financial accident which no amount of central-bank easing could overcome. This is not impossible, though it is wholly unpredictable, and short of burying gold coins in your cellar there is no really good way to prepare for such an occurrence. If it should happen this way, anybody who "predicted" it will just have been damn lucky, and nobody will care anyway, for the world's fiat monetary systems will have died and we will all be in deep, deep doo-doo.
It's much more realistic to expect a slow turning of the wheel, as has happened in the past.... the Great Depression, the 1970s. The turn of the tide at major peaks takes months.... years....
For the short term, while waiting for the return of the bubble.... and, for that matter, for the
longer term as the deflationary scenario unfolds.... you gotta love those bonds.
Original cost (adjusted): $ 4,998.21
Present value: $ 4,172.27
Increase: $ -825.94 [-16.52%]
The performance of this portfolio and its predecessors ("Hedger's Delight", "Present and Future Income", "Crapshooter's Folly") from January 1987 to the present is -5.34%, for a compound annual rate of return of -0.37%. COMMENT on "Phoenix": There is no change since the last issue (cash balance is not up to date).
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $ 9,024.00
Present value: $14,966.20
Increase: $ 5,942.90 [+65.86%]
COMMENT on "PIG":
The PIGs' Web page is at
http://www.assumption.edu/HTML/Faculty/Kantar/WPigs.html
C. Roth rollover IRA - real portfolio, includes commissions:
SUMMARY - IRA:
Original (1983-86) cost: $ 8,326.19
Present value: $10,135.85
Increase: $ 1,809.66 [+21.73%]
The performance of this portfolio (including its predecessors)
from January 1, 1987 to the present is -7.58%, for a compound
annual rate of return of -0.52%.
D. CREF Pension plan; I switch between indexed stock/bond/money funds:
Date Sold Bought
13Mar1992 stock @ 56.65 MM @ 13.41
29Apr1992 MM @ 13.48 bond @ 31.19
19Jun1992 bond @ 32.14 MM @ 13.55
29Jun1992 MM @ 13.57 stock @ 56.74
24Jul1992 stock @ 56.76 MM @ 13.61
29Oct1992 MM @ 13.72 stock @ 58.61
23Dec1992 stock @ 61.48 MM @ 13.78
16Jan1995 MM @ 14.83 equity-index @ 26.44
20Jan1995 eq-index @ 26.19 MM @ 14.84
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 bond@47.56 (27.17%)
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 i-i bond@26.12 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 bond@ 48.84 MM@17.52 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 I-I bond@ 26.23 MM@17.52(27.17%)
16Jun1998 MM@ 17.84 TIAA Traditional (45.87%)
23Sep1999 MM@18.99 I-I bond@27.56 (53.32%)
17-18May2000 rate adjustment to 7.25% in SRA
12-13Jul2000 rate adjustment to 7.5% in SRA
8Jan2001 TIAA Traditional bond@58.62 [22.77%]
8Jan2001 TIAA Traditional eq-idx@75.79 [4.56%]
1Feb2001 i-i bond@31.78 eq-idx@80.84 [26.76%]
Values, 28Aug2001: stock, 164.69 equity-index, 69.06; MM, 21.12; bond, 61.62;
inflation-indexed bond, 33.65; TIAA current yield in SRA, 7.5% (new money at 6.5% through September 30, 2001)
Gain, 1988: 18.91%; 1989: 14.48%; 1990: 8.28%; 1991: 27.93%; 1992: 10.20%; 1993: 3.08%; 1994: 4.07%; 1995: 4.80%; 1996: 5.28%; 1997: 5.38%; 1998: 5.72%; 1999: 5.12%; 2000: 9.99%
Gain, January 1 through March 31, 2001: -2.10%
Total gain since January 1, 1988 (13.25 years): 210.19%
Compound annual rate of return: 8.92% (My long-term target: in excess of 10%)
Gain shown excludes the impact of additional monthly cash contributions.
Buying CREF stock on January 1, 1988 and holding it gained
426.15%, for a compound annual rate of return of 13.36%.
COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend":
We are on a BUY signal of July 26, 2001, though
with not much to show for it so far.
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Mon 29 Jan 01 . | . # |10702.19 | . + *
Tue 30 Jan 01 . | . # |10881.20 | . + *
Wed 31 Jan 01 . | . # |10887.36 | . + *
Thu 1 Feb 01 . | . # |10983.63 |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 2 Feb 01 . | # |10864.10 | . + *
Mon 5 Feb 01 . | . # |10965.85 | . + *
Tue 6 Feb 01 . | . # |10957.42 | . + *
Wed 7 Feb 01 . | # |10946.72 | . + *
Thu 8 Feb 01 . | .# |10880.55 | . + *
Fri 9 Feb 01 . | # |10781.45 | . + *
Mon 12 Feb 01 . | . # |10946.77 | . + *
Tue 13 Feb 01 . | .# |10903.32 | . + *
Wed 14 Feb 01 . | # |10795.41 | . + *
Thu 15 Feb 01 . | . # |10891.02 | . + *
Fri 16 Feb 01 . |# . |10799.82 | .+ *
Tue 20 Feb 01 . |# . |10730.88 | + *
Wed 21 Feb 01 . & . |10526.28 |~+~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 Feb 01 . & . |10562.61 |+. *
Fri 23 Feb 01 . #I . |10441.90 + . *
Mon 26 Feb 01 . I . # |10642.53 |+. *
Tue 27 Feb 01 . I # |10636.88 |+. *
Wed 28 Feb 01 . I .# |10495.28 | + *-------------------
Thu 1 Mar 01 . I# . |10450.14 | + *
Fri 2 Mar 01 . | .# |10466.31 | .+ *
Mon 5 Mar 01 . | . # |10562.30 | .+ *
Tue 6 Mar 01 . | . # |10591.22 | . + *
Wed 7 Mar 01 . | . # |10729.60 | . + *
Thu 8 Mar 01 . | .# |10585.25 | . + *
Fri 9 Mar 01 . | . # |10644.62 | . + *
Mon 12 Mar 01 #. I . |10208.25 | .+ *
Tue 13 Mar 01 . & . |10290.80 | + *
Wed 14 Mar 01 #. I . {| 9873.46 |*+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 15 Mar 01 . I #. |10031.28 + . *
Fri 16 Mar 01 #. I . | 9823.41 | - *
Mon 19 Mar 01 . I # | 9959.11 |-. *
Tue 20 Mar 01 . & . | 9720.76 |-. *
Wed 21 Mar 01 #. I . | 9487.00 |-.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 Mar 01 # . I . | 9389.48 | .- *
Fri 23 Mar 01 . I # | 9504.78 |-. *
Mon 26 Mar 01 . I . # | 9687.53 |-. *
Tue 27 Mar 01 . I . # | 9947.54 + . *
Wed 28 Mar 01 . #I . | 9785.35 |+. *
Thu 29 Mar 01 . & . | 9799.06 | + *
Fri 30 Mar 01 . I # | 9878.78 | + *
Mon 2 Apr 01 . #I . | 9777.93 |+. *
Tue 3 Apr 01 # . I . | 9485.71 | - *
Wed 4 Apr 01 .# I . | 9515.42 | - *
Thu 5 Apr 01 . I . # | 9918.05 |-. *
Fri 6 Apr 01 #. I . | 9791.09 | - *
Mon 9 Apr 01 . I # | 9845.15 |-. *
Tue 10 Apr 01 . | . # |10102.74 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 11 Apr 01 . & . |10013.47 | + *
Thu 12 Apr 01 . | # |10126.94 |+. *
Mon 16 Apr 01 . I #. |10158.56 | + *
Tue 17 Apr 01 . | .# |10216.73 | .+ *
Wed 18 Apr 01 . | . # }|10615.83 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 19 Apr 01 . | .# |10693.71 | . + *
Fri 20 Apr 01 . # . |10579.85 | .+ *
Mon 23 Apr 01 . # . [|10532.23 | .+ *
Tue 24 Apr 01 . | #. |10454.34 | + *
Wed 25 Apr 01 . | . # ]|10625.20 | + *
Thu 26 Apr 01 . | . # |10692.35 | + *
Fri 27 Apr 01 . | . # |10810.05 | . + *
Mon 30 Apr 01 . | . # |10734.97 | . + *
Tue 1 May 01 . | . # |10898.34 | . + *
Wed 2 May 01 . | .# |10876.68 | . + *
Thu 3 May 01 . |# . |10795.65 | . + *
Fri 4 May 01 . | . # |10951.24 | . + *
Mon 7 May 01 . | .# |10935.17 | . + *
Tue 8 May 01 . | # |10883.51 | .+ *
Wed 9 May 01 . | # |10866.98 | .+ *
Thu 10 May 01 . | . # |10910.44 | . + *
Fri 11 May 01 . | # |10821.31 | .+ *
Mon 14 May 01 . | . # |10877.33 | .+ *
Tue 15 May 01 . | . # |10872.97 | . + *
Wed 16 May 01 . | . # |11215.92 |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 17 May 01 . | . # |11248.58 | . + *
Fri 18 May 01 . | . # |11301.74 @| . + *
Mon 21 May 01 . | . # |11337.92 @| . + *
Tue 22 May 01 . | .# |11257.24 @| . + *
Wed 23 May 01 . |# . |11105.51 | . + *
Thu 24 May 01 . | # |11122.42 | . + *
Fri 25 May 01 . | #. |11005.37 | .+ *
Tue 29 May 01 . | #. |11039.14 | + *
Wed 30 May 01 . #| . |10872.64 |+. *
Thu 31 May 01 . | . # |10911.94 | + *
Fri 1 Jun 01 . | .# |10990.41 | + *
Mon 4 Jun 01 . | . # |11061.52 | .+ *
Tue 5 Jun 01 . | . # |11175.84 | .+ *
Wed 6 Jun 01 . | #. |11070.24 | . + *
Thu 7 Jun 01 . | .# |11090.74 | . + *
Fri 8 Jun 01 . | #. |10977.00 | .+ *
Mon 11 Jun 01 . |# . |10922.09 | .+ *
Tue 12 Jun 01 . | #. |10948.38 | + *
Wed 13 Jun 01 . | #. |10871.62 | + *
Thu 14 Jun 01 # I . |10690.13 +~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 15 Jun 01 . & . |10623.64 + . *
Mon 18 Jun 01 . & . |10645.38 + . *
Tue 19 Jun 01 . I# . |10596.67 + . *
Wed 20 Jun 01 . I #. |10647.33 + . *
Thu 21 Jun 01 . I .# |10715.43 |+. *
Fri 22 Jun 01 . I #. |10604.59 |+. *
Mon 25 Jun 01 . & . |10504.22 |+. *
Tue 26 Jun 01 . I #. |10472.48 | + *
Wed 27 Jun 01 . | #. |10434.84 | + *
Thu 28 Jun 01 . | . # |10566.21 | + *
Fri 29 Jun 01 . | . # |10502.40 | + *
Mon 2 Jul 01 . | . # |10593.72 | .+ *
Tue 3 Jul 01 . | # |10571.11 | . + *
Thu 5 Jul 01 . # . |10479.86 | .+ *
Fri 6 Jul 01 # I . |10252.68 |~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 9 Jul 01 . I# . |10299.40 |+. *
Tue 10 Jul 01 . #I . |10175.64 + . *
Wed 11 Jul 01 .# I . {|10241.02 |-. *
Thu 12 Jul 01 . I # ]|10478.99 |-. *
Fri 13 Jul 01 . | .# }|10539.06 |+. *
Mon 16 Jul 01 . #I . |10472.12 + . *
Tue 17 Jul 01 . | # |10606.39 |+. *
Wed 18 Jul 01 . I# . |10569.83 | + *
Thu 19 Jul 01 . | .# |10610.00 | + *
Fri 20 Jul 01 . |# . |10576.65 |+. *
Mon 23 Jul 01 . #I . |10424.42 |+. *
Tue 24 Jul 01 # I . {|10241.12 + . *
Wed 25 Jul 01 . I # |10405.67 + . *
Thu 26 Jul 01 . | .# }|10455.63 + . *
Fri 27 Jul 01 . | .# |10416.67 |+. *
Mon 30 Jul 01 . | .# |10401.72 | + *
Tue 31 Jul 01 . | . # |10522.81 | . + *
Wed 1 Aug 01 . | .# |10510.01 | . + *
Thu 2 Aug 01 . | .# |10551.18 | . + *
Fri 3 Aug 01 . | # |10512.78 | . + *
Mon 6 Aug 01 . |# . |10401.31 | .+ *
Tue 7 Aug 01 . | .# |10458.74 | .+ *
Wed 8 Aug 01 . # . |10293.50 | + *
Thu 9 Aug 01 . | #. |10298.56 | + *
Fri 10 Aug 01 . | .# |10416.25 | + *
Mon 13 Aug 01 . | # |10415.91 | + *
Tue 14 Aug 01 . | .# |10412.17 | + *
Wed 15 Aug 01 . | # |10345.95 | .+ *
Thu 16 Aug 01 . |# . |10392.52 | .+ *
Fri 17 Aug 01 . #| . |10240.78 | + *
Mon 20 Aug 01 . | # |10320.07 | + *
Tue 21 Aug 01 . | #. |10174.14 |+. *
Wed 22 Aug 01 . | .# |10276.90 |+. *
Thu 23 Aug 01 . | #. |10229.15 | + *
========================================================================
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": We have a SELL signal on June 12, 2001.
Though the downtrend since then is not spectacularly bearish, the NASDAQ still looks pretty
sick, and new lows are possible. Actually, I'm getting interested in bottom-fishing here,
maybe in September.
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND ____________________________
Mon 29 Jan 01 . | . # | 2838.34 | . + *
Tue 30 Jan 01 . | .# | 2838.35 | .+ *
Wed 31 Jan 01 . | # | 2772.73 | .+ *
Thu 1 Feb 01 . | .# | 2782.79 | . + *
Fri 2 Feb 01 . # . | 2660.50 | .+ *
Mon 5 Feb 01 . |# . [| 2643.21 | + *
Tue 6 Feb 01 . | .# | 2664.49 | + *
Wed 7 Feb 01 . #I . {| 2607.82 |+. *
Thu 8 Feb 01 . I# . | 2562.06 |+. *
Fri 9 Feb 01 # I . | 2470.97 +~.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 12 Feb 01 . I #. | 2489.66 + . *
Tue 13 Feb 01 . #I . | 2427.72 |-. *
Wed 14 Feb 01 . I #. | 2491.40 + . *
Thu 15 Feb 01 . I . # | 2552.91 |+. *
Fri 16 Feb 01 # . I . | 2425.38 + . *
Tue 20 Feb 01 # . I . | 2318.35 |-. *
Wed 21 Feb 01 # . I . | 2268.94 |~-~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 22 Feb 01 #. I . | 2244.96 | .- *
Fri 23 Feb 01 # I . | 2262.51 | . - *
Mon 26 Feb 01 . I #. | 2308.50 | .- *
Tue 27 Feb 01 # . I . | 2207.82 | .- *
Wed 28 Feb 01 #. I . | 2151.83 | .- *
Thu 1 Mar 01 .# I . | 2183.37 | .- *
Fri 2 Mar 01 # . I . | 2117.63 | .- *
Mon 5 Mar 01 . & . | 2142.92 | . - *
Tue 6 Mar 01 . I .# | 2204.43 | - *
Wed 7 Mar 01 . & . | 2223.92 |-. *
Thu 8 Mar 01 # I . | 2168.73 |-. *
Fri 9 Mar 01 # . I . | 2052.78 |~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 12 Mar 01 # . I . | 1923.36 | .- *
Tue 13 Mar 01 .# I . | 2014.78 | . - *
Wed 14 Mar 01 # . I . | 1972.09 @| . - *
Thu 15 Mar 01 # . I . | 1940.71 @| . - *
Fri 16 Mar 01 # . I . | 1890.91 @| . *-
Mon 19 Mar 01 .# I . | 1951.18 | . - *
Tue 20 Mar 01 # . I . | 1857.44 @|~.~*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 21 Mar 01 # . I . | 1830.23 @| . - *
Thu 22 Mar 01 # I . | 1897.70 | . - *
Fri 23 Mar 01 .# I . | 1928.68 | . - *
Mon 26 Mar 01 # I . | 1918.49 | . - *
Tue 27 Mar 01 . & . | 1972.26 | .- *
Wed 28 Mar 01 # . I . | 1854.13 | . - *
Thu 29 Mar 01 # . I . | 1820.57 | . - *
Fri 30 Mar 01 . #I . | 1840.26 | . - *
Mon 2 Apr 01 # . I . | 1782.97 | . - *
Tue 3 Apr 01 # . I . | 1673.00 @|~.~~*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 4 Apr 01 # . I . | 1638.80 @| . - *
Thu 5 Apr 01 . I #. | 1785.00 | . - *
Fri 6 Apr 01 # . I . | 1720.36 @| . - *
Mon 9 Apr 01 .# I . | 1745.71 | . - *
Tue 10 Apr 01 . I # | 1852.03 | .- *
Wed 11 Apr 01 . I #. | 1898.95 |-. *
Thu 12 Apr 01 . I # | 1961.43 |-. *
Mon 16 Apr 01 # I . | 1909.57 + . *
Tue 17 Apr 01 . & . | 1923.22 |+. *
Wed 18 Apr 01 . | . # | 2079.44 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 19 Apr 01 . | . # | 2182.14 | + *
Fri 20 Apr 01 . | #. | 2163.41 | + *
Mon 23 Apr 01 # | . | 2059.32 | + *
Tue 24 Apr 01 . #| . | 2016.61 |+. *
Wed 25 Apr 01 . | .# | 2059.80 |+. *
Thu 26 Apr 01 . # . | 2034.88 + . *
Fri 27 Apr 01 . | .# | 2075.68 + . *
Mon 30 Apr 01 . | . # }| 2116.24 | + *
Tue 1 May 01 . | . # | 2168.24 | . + *
Wed 2 May 01 . | . # | 2220.60 | . + *
Thu 3 May 01 . # . | 2146.20 | . + *
Fri 4 May 01 . | . # | 2191.53 | . + *
Mon 7 May 01 . | #. | 2173.57 | . + *
Tue 8 May 01 . | . # | 2198.77 | .+ *
Wed 9 May 01 . |# . | 2156.63 | + *
Thu 10 May 01 . | #. | 2128.86 | .+ *
Fri 11 May 01 . | #. | 2107.43 | + *
Mon 14 May 01 . |# . | 2081.92 | + *
Tue 15 May 01 . | # | 2085.58 |+. *
Wed 16 May 01 . | . # | 2166.44 | + *
Thu 17 May 01 . | . # | 2193.68 | .+ *
Fri 18 May 01 . | .# | 2198.88 | .+ *
Mon 21 May 01 . | . # | 2305.59 | . + *
Tue 22 May 01 . | .# | 2313.85 | . + *
Wed 23 May 01 . |# . | 2243.48 | . + *
Thu 24 May 01 . | . # | 2282.02 | . + *
Fri 25 May 01 . | # | 2251.03 | . + *
Tue 29 May 01 . # . | 2175.54 | + *
Wed 30 May 01 # I . {| 2084.50 |+. *
Thu 31 May 01 . I . # ]| 2110.49 | + *
Fri 1 Jun 01 . | . # }| 2149.44 | + *
Mon 4 Jun 01 . | .# | 2155.93 | + *
Tue 5 Jun 01 . | . # | 2233.66 | .+ *
Wed 6 Jun 01 . | # | 2217.73 | . + *
Thu 7 Jun 01 . | . # | 2264.00 | . + *
Fri 8 Jun 01 . # . | 2215.10 | .+ *
Mon 11 Jun 01 . #I . | 2170.78 | + *
Tue 12 Jun 01 . I# . {| 2169.95 |+. *
Wed 13 Jun 01 . #I . | 2121.66 + . *
Thu 14 Jun 01 # . I . | 2044.07 | - *
Fri 15 Jun 01 # I . | 2028.43 | - *
Mon 18 Jun 01 # . I . | 1988.63 | .- *
Tue 19 Jun 01 .# I . | 1992.66 | . - *
Wed 20 Jun 01 . #I . | 2031.24 | . - *
Thu 21 Jun 01 . I# . | 2058.76 | - *
Fri 22 Jun 01 . & . | 2034.84 | - *
Mon 25 Jun 01 . I #. | 2050.87 + . *
Tue 26 Jun 01 . I# . | 2064.62 + . *
Wed 27 Jun 01 . I # | 2074.74 |+. *
Thu 28 Jun 01 . I . # | 2125.46 | + *
Fri 29 Jun 01 . | . # | 2160.54 | .+ *
Mon 2 Jul 01 . I# . | 2148.72 | .+ *
Tue 3 Jul 01 . #I . | 2140.80 | + *
Thu 5 Jul 01 #. I . | 2080.11 |+. *
Fri 6 Jul 01 # . I . | 2004.16 |-. *
Mon 9 Jul 01 . & . | 2026.71 | - *
Tue 10 Jul 01 # . I . | 1962.79 | . - *
Wed 11 Jul 01 .# I . | 1972.04 | . - *
Thu 12 Jul 01 . I . # | 2075.74 | - *
Fri 13 Jul 01 . I #. | 2084.79 + . *
Mon 16 Jul 01 .# I . | 2029.12 |-. *
Tue 17 Jul 01 . I # | 2067.32 |+. *
Wed 18 Jul 01 .# I . | 2016.17 |+. *
Thu 19 Jul 01 . I # | 2046.59 + . *
Fri 20 Jul 01 . #I . | 2029.37 + . *
Mon 23 Jul 01 . #I . | 1988.56 + . *
Tue 24 Jul 01 #. I . | 1959.24 |-. *
Wed 25 Jul 01 . #I . | 1984.32 |-. *
Thu 26 Jul 01 . I # | 2022.96 |-. *
Fri 27 Jul 01 . I# . | 2029.07 |-. *
Mon 30 Jul 01 . & . | 2017.84 |-. *
Tue 31 Jul 01 . I #. | 2027.13 |+. *
Wed 1 Aug 01 . I .# | 2068.38 | + *
Thu 2 Aug 01 . | #. | 2087.38 |+. *
Fri 3 Aug 01 . & . | 2066.33 |+. *
Mon 6 Aug 01 . & . | 2034.26 |+. *
Tue 7 Aug 01 . & . | 2027.79 |+. *
Wed 8 Aug 01 # I . | 1966.36 |-. *
Thu 9 Aug 01 .# I . | 1963.32 |-. *
Fri 10 Aug 01 .# I . | 1956.47 | - *
Mon 13 Aug 01 . I # | 1982.25 |-. *
Tue 14 Aug 01 . #I . | 1964.53 |-. *
Wed 15 Aug 01 # I . | 1918.89 |-. *
Thu 16 Aug 01 .# I . | 1930.32 |-. *
Fri 17 Aug 01 #. I . | 1867.01 | - *
Mon 20 Aug 01 . & . | 1881.35 | - *
Tue 21 Aug 01 #. I . | 1831.30 |~.-~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 22 Aug 01 . & . | 1860.01 | - *
Thu 23 Aug 01 .# I . | 1842.97 | - *
========================================================================
"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces: NEXT ISSUE - will appear in late September. /Nick Chase