SUMMARY - "PIG":
The Contrarian's View is published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. Material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet through the World-Wide Web service at Assumption College. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, Open URL http://nick.assumption.edu. Mailed paper subscriptions, one year for $39 to The Contrarian's View, 132 Moreland Street, Worcester, Massachusetts 01609. There is a limit of 50 paid subscribers at one time; please check for availability before sending any money. Sorry, Visa and Mastercard are not available. Overseas subscription rate, U.S. $54. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! Phone: (508) 757-2881
The house (mentioned in the 1930s town history as the "Mary Marshall House", after a long-time inhabitant) was originally built around 1805 as a two-room cape, charmingly complete with low ceilings, panelling and an open-hearth fireplace in each room. A kitchen wing with attached woodshed (later a bathroom) was added about 1830. In the 1920s, a flat-roofed small dining room and "sunroom" were attached to the rear of the main house, and these were the five rooms in the house when I bought it in 1966 and sold it in 1975.
The people I sold it to redid the back two rooms with an exterior wall of glass doors opening to a very private back yard (the property borders a state park which was established when I owned the place), made many structural repairs, and redesigned the kitchen and bathroom, resulting in a very functional though still charming small house. And it remained as such, until very recently.
The current alterations include another wing added on the opposite side of the house from (what was) the kitchen, and an enormous two-storey (as far as I can tell from the street) addition to the rear, almost as wide as the house with its two wings. The effect is that the original two-room cape is now completely swallowed up by something bigger and not as pretty (though when the Tyvek is covered by siding, it may look better). Vinyl replacement windows in the original two rooms suggest to me that the new owners (unlike the people I sold to) are not interested in a museum-quality restoration.
My initial reaction was, if you wanted a big house, why not buy or build what you wanted in the first place, rather than ruining a small house? But then I remembered that in the quarter-century since I moved, Carlisle has "progressed" from a town where ordinary people could afford to live, to one populated by million-dollar yuppie mansions. My former home (before additions) was worth, maybe, $75,000, but it sits on a lot worth $275,000. The sign plunked in front, "Financed by....", tells the story. No bank is going to write a mortgage for a property that is land rich and house-poor, where one cannot obtain $350,000 worth of lifestyle for the money spent. Economic pressures.... "peer pressure" from the surroundings, really.... dictate that all properties gravitate to more-or-less the same size.
Fortunately for me, I still have my pleasant memories (and plenty
of pictures) of living there. Too bad that others won't be able
to derive the same kind of "small is beautiful" enjoyment I
did.... at least, not in Carlisle.
It is the nature of postmodernism that nothing is at it appears - including the word "is." In 'Postmodernism and the Social Sciences' Pauline Marie Rosenau writes: "Post-modernists recognize an infinite number of interpretations (meanings) of any text are possible because, for the skeptical post-modernists, one can never say what one intends with language, [thus] ultimately all textual meaning, all interpretation is undecipherable . . . Many diverse meanings are possible for any symbol, gesture, word . . . Language has no direct relationship to the real world; it is, rather, only symbolic."
The problem with such an approach comes when, for example, you want a final vote count. It is all very well to say that the Palm Beach County butterfly ballot is merely a social construct designed by middle-age white Eurocentric men to disenfranchise elderly Jewish voters, but we don't have time for that right now. We need a president-elect. And so what happens? To replace shared meaning in an actual real-life situation, the postmodernist simply substitutes brute force. This was the story of the Clinton years and this is why there are so many lawyers in Florida even as we speak.
Let us, for comparison sake, return to a simpler time when there was shared meaning as to what a vote count was, how you did it, and what you could get away with. Imagine David Boies approaching a Palm Beach County voting commissioner:
BOIES: Good morning, my name is David Boies. You may have read about what I did to Microsoft. I have now been asked to look into your operations.
COMMISH: Good morning. Would you like some coffee?
BOIES: We would like a hand recount.
COMMISH: I take it then that you are with the loser in the county, Mr. Bush. Well, I'm afraid a hand recount would not be possible; after all your candidate lost by 209,000 votes. That's 27% of all votes cast. And besides we've already done a machine recount and it varied from the original by only two tenths of one percent. You gotta come a little closer than that, my friend.
BOIES: On the contrary, I represent the Vice President.
COMMISH: [Spills her coffee and gags] The Vice President? You mean the guy who already has 117,000 more votes than he needs? This is too much. Do you mind if I call my assistant and tell him? We don't get many laughs around here.
BOIES: This is no laughing matter. We feel that the voters of Palm Beach County were deprived of their full expression of support for Vice President Gore.
COMMISH: Let me try to explain to you, Mr. Boies. Vote counts aren't like billable hours; you don't just pad them whenever you feel like it. In most places in this country I'd be saying good bye to you right now because winners simply don't get recounts and in many jurisdictions even losers have to come within, like, one percent. Our law's a little sloppy but you still have to have some justification. Did somebody steal some of your votes, perhaps?
BOIES: No, but the butterfly ballots were terribly confusing to many elderly voters -- and obviously to anyone stupid enough to vote for Buchanan -- and we would like to reconstruct them according to a contextual analysis of their intent.
COMMISH: And how do you intend to establish that?
BOIES: That's why we've got so many lawyers down here.
COMMISH: Look, we count ballots here, Mr. Boies, we don't run focus groups. Besides, I read where teachers in New Jersey and Louisiana gave these ballots to 4th and 5th graders and they didn't have the slightest trouble with them.
BOIES: As you well know, 4th and 5th graders are not permitted to cast actual ballots. We are dealing with issues of freedom of speech, freedom of religion, the statutory requirement that the voter's true intent be determined and . . .
COMMISH: Hold, on a second. These butterfly ballots were printed in the newspaper, they were designed by a Democrat, and were available to any lawyer who wanted to look at them. Why didn't you complain before the election?
BOIES: I was not representing my client at that time.
COMMISH: Well, then let me ask you another thing. How come these ballots were okay when Democrats were running the state but not now? Did a whole bunch of elderly Jewish voters get the Nile virus in their eyes when Jeb Bush took over or what?
BOIES: The issue of when a wrong is righted is immaterial as long as it is righted. Would you support slavery simply because of its lengthy provenance?
COMMISH: You big time lawyers sure have a hard time staying on the subject. Look, we're not talking slavery, glaucoma, freedom of speech or anything but whether this count was done right. All you've done is told me is that if you had my job, you'd do another way. But you are not, to borrow a phrase, a controlling legal authority in the state of Florida. If you got evidence that somebody stole or messed with the ballots or harassed the voters, you let me know and I'll do something -- even though you did win by 117,00 votes and really should have a little more class than to come around here whining that it wasn't more.
BOIES: I see that we will have to pursue our legal remedies. . .
COMMISH: Do what you have to do, but just tell one thing.
BOIES: What's that?
COMMISH: How come it was Democrats who were too dumb to mark the ballot right? I always thought we were the smart ones.
BOIES: Well, we certainly have the better lawyers. Good day,
Commissioner. [Reaches for cell phone and punches the dial]
Hello, Warren, this is Dave. Wipe that smile off your face. We've
got work to do.
And here I will offer a prediction: The decisive event...which will turn the dream of stock market riches into a nightmare...will be the fall of the dollar. Few Americans care about the dollar. Perhaps only those of us who live overseas and see the daily price fluctuations notice it. But it is upon the King Dollar that the U.S. economy and its markets rest. But the dollar is a strange monarch...because it depends on foreigners for its power.... If I am right, the dollar will soon be pulled from his throne and decapitated.... While Europeans and Asians produced cheese, wine, shoes and walkmen...the U.S. produced dollars. For many years, dollars have been traded for the foreigners' products with no trace of regret on either side.... At least $400 billion comes back into the U.S. this year - to finance the current account deficit. That money comes willingly, as long as people have faith 1) in the U.S. economy and 2) and in the superior rate of return from U.S. investments. On both points, faith is being shaken. Stocks are down. And now the U.S. economy is slowing down. - Bill Bonner
If an individual investor gets what he deserves, rather than what he expects, is that also true for the entire market? Americans are more heavily in debt than every before. They believe that stocks will make them rich if they merely buy and hold. They have no savings and an almost infinite confidence in the U.S. dollar and its guardian, Alan Greenspan. What do such people expect? What do they deserve? - Bill Bonner
I often ponder the mechanisms the allow broad money supply to
expand by over $400 billion this year, while the household savings rate has turned negative and our economy runs massive trade
deficits. What is the source of all this "money" when households
aren't saving and dollars leave the country in droves? Well, the
source is blatant and unrelenting money and credit excess.... it
is no coincidence that fund flows are concomitant with the strongest level of mortgage refinancings in about 16 months.... While
it may appear to mutual fund managers that real investor money is
flowing into mutual funds and buying stocks, the root source of
this liquidity is unadulterated inflationary money creation. -
Doug Noland
I'm not like George Bush.... I'll do anything to win. - Al Gore [December 1999]
Gore had five attorneys there. Their sole objective was to disenfranchise the military absentee votes. They challenged each and every vote. Their sole intent was to disqualify each and every absentee voter. They constantly challenged military votes that were clearly legitimate, but they were able to disqualify them on a technicality. I have never been so frustrated in all my life as I was to see these people fight to prevent our active duty military from voting. - Ray Marino [Brevard County (FL) Republican Chairman]
Gore, who appears to be a moral clone of Bill Clinton, is desperately trying to frustrate the will of the people while proclaiming that protecting it is his only motivation. That, of course, is totally unbelievable. He is acting in a dishonorable way, which should not surprise anyone. He has lusted for power for decades, and to see it slipping from his grasp must surely be excruciating. - Charley Reese
Some of the people complaining about ballot confusion are the same ones that can keep track of 12 bingo cards. I would be embarrassed to state on national TV that I could not follow a straight arrow to the hole opposite of the candidate I wanted to vote for. It is all boiling down to party politics. Keep counting until you get the results you want. - Jack Trout
When Gore campaign manager William Daley said the Florida vote was "an injustice unparalleled in our history," you could watch the stock market ticker turn red on the television screen. The markets will fall even farther if the delegitimization campaign continues. Foreign investment, which has helped power year after year of American prosperity, will slow as uncertainty builds. Confidence in the dollar could also collapse, wreaking havoc in markets around the world. - Richard Pollock
[I]n 1994, the residents of New York City's Upper East Side
contributed more to congressional campaigns around the country
than all the residents of 21 states. In 1990 one tenth of one
percent of the voting-age population accounted for 46 percent of
all the money raised by congressional candidates. The effect of
these legal bribes was far more corrupting than more traditional
forms of election fraud. - Sam Smith
I never thought I'd see the day when any politician would so degrade the electoral process that he'd make Richard Nixon, criminal that he later proved to be, look like a saint for declining to pursue recounts in the 1960 election which was probably stolen from him in Illinois and Texas. Nixon (though prodded by Ike) felt it would be unhealthy for the country; now we know what he meant.
As you know, I didn't vote for either of these clowns, so I have no particular axe to grind here, but I have certainly formed an opinion. (I eagerly wait for someone to start selling "DON'T BLAME ME, I DIDN'T VOTE FOR EITHER OF THEM" bumper stickers.) The closeness of the election actually glued me to the boob tube for the evening, a rare occurrence, as you know. After filtering out the media bias, here is what I saw:
George Bush was leading in the counted vote total in Florida when the networks "awarded" the state to Gore. He still led in the counted votes when they changed their minds and said that Florida was again too close to call. He continued to lead when they said Bush had carried the state, and when Al Gore conceded. His counted votes still topped Gore's when Gore took back his concession. He still led when the legally-required recount got underway. He still held a slim lead when the (machine) recount was completed and the original certification deadline passed. His votes still topped Gore's after the deadline for absentee ballots passed and they were counted. And he continued his lead when the Dade counters decided they'd rather spend the Thanksgiving holiday eating turkey with their families than perform slave labor for a turkey, and when he was (finally) certified the winner by Florida's secretary of state. In other words, George Bush carried Florida, and should be awarded its 25 electoral votes and therefore be our next president.
Any statistician will tell you that the vote-counting machines will "err" proportionately for each candidate; a completely accurate recount would not change the proportion of the votes for each candidate, though it might enlarge the absolute number of votes separating them, in this case the number of votes by which Bush beat Gore. Unless, of course, one assumes that the Gore voters are, as a whole, dumber than the Bush voters and therefore less capable of voting accurately.... a point that Gore's slimeball lawyers might be willing to concede in pursuit of "victory". Once the machine recount validated the original outcome, Bush should have been declared the winner, as Florida law provides.
But what we have instead is a lot of irrelevant noise about butterfly ballots, voter intent, hairy chads, or whatever, being magnified in the media to the point where it obscures the truth, which is: Bush won the state, and Gore's folks tried to steal away that victory away by judge-shopping and cherry-picking counties for politicized hand-recounts. If I were a Democrat, I would be ashamed. If the shoe were on the other foot.... if George Bush were trailing by a few hundred votes, instead of leading, would the Republicans have pursued the same shameful tactics? In this age, possibly, but I have know way of knowing, and cannot assess blame on those who might act malevolently, only on those who are.
Do you, as I do, long for someone to "pull the plug" and put an end to this whole sorry episode? Either candidate could concede; but I see no reason why the winner (Bush) should be the one to throw in the towel; it's up to the loser (Gore), who trails in the Florida vote total, to put the country's interests ahead of his own and concede.... or rather, re-concede.... the election. If he won't, maybe, finally, some court or the Florida legislature will act to shut down the Gore juggernaut.
I'm not crazy about the prospect that our next president may be determined by whoever has the more clever lawyers. From the way stocks have been acting, I'd say the majority of investors agree with me. Though we now enter the "safe period" between Thanksgiving and the new year, when stocks typically do no worse than tread water, this December may be different.... the bear may continue, especially for the NASDAQ, though I do expect a good size relief rally (around 10%) when the electors (or the House of Representatives, should it get that far) do finally select the next president.
Before the election, my wife asked me what I was going to do about the "Kevorkian for White House Physician" bumper sticker on my car. Well, I said, for sure it's going to stay on the car until January 20. After that, I'll see whether the behavior of the new president justifies keeping it on the car, or whether I should peel it off on the next warm day. I can tell you now, if the "Sore-Loserman" team succeeds in stealing this election, the bumper sticker stays. Anybody who would so put at risk the nation's willingness to adhere to law under the Constitution merely for personal gain deserves only our contempt.
OK, in the interests of full disclosure, you put a gun to my head and ask me, if I had to vote for one of these two men, which one would it be? If you had asked me before the election, I would have had really mixed feelings. George Bush would be much more likely than Al Gore to clean out the rats' nest of criminals from the Clinton administration, but I would rather see Al Gore eat the recession that might well turn into a depression. I guess, on balance, I would have felt it is more important to get rid of the crooks, and would have leaned toward Bush.
Now, after seeing the post-election behavior, it's no contest. Al
Gore is a jerk. And George Bush strikes me as a lightweight nice
guy who might just be able to grow into the job, though I suspect, like his daddy, the economy would turn against him and he
would not last more than one term.
Original cost (adjusted): $ 4,998.21
Present value: $ 4,725.69
Increase: $ -272.52 [-5.45%]
The performance of this portfolio and its predecessors ("Hedger's Delight", "Present and Future Income", "Crapshooter's Folly") from January 1987 to the present is 7.21%, for a compound annual rate of return of 0.51%. COMMENT on "Phoenix": There is no change from the last issue.
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $ 9,024.00
Present value: $15,772.57
Increase: $ 6,748.57 [+74.78%]
COMMENT on "PIG": At a meeting I couldn't make, the PIGs decided
to buy Genzyme Transgenics on the recommendation of a member who
specializes in the field and felt the stock was going to take off
shortly. This was just before a favorable mention of the technology in Barron's. Didn't make any difference to the NASDAQ bear,
though.... the stock is still down from where we bought it. So
much for the short term. We also sold ABTI to take the tax loss
in 2000. The PIGs' Web page is at
http://www.assumption.edu/HTML/Faculty/Kantar/WPigs.html
C. Roth rollover IRA - real portfolio, includes commissions:
SUMMARY - IRA:
Original (1983-86) cost: $ 8,326.19
Present value: $11,247.88
Increase: $ 2,921.69 [+35.09%]
The performance of this portfolio (including its predecessors)
from January 1, 1987 to the present is 2.56%, for a compound
annual rate of return of 0.18%.
D. CREF Pension plan; I switch between indexed stock/bond/money funds:
Date Sold Bought
13Mar1992 stock @ 56.65 MM @ 13.41
29Apr1992 MM @ 13.48 bond @ 31.19
19Jun1992 bond @ 32.14 MM @ 13.55
29Jun1992 MM @ 13.57 stock @ 56.74
24Jul1992 stock @ 56.76 MM @ 13.61
29Oct1992 MM @ 13.72 stock @ 58.61
23Dec1992 stock @ 61.48 MM @ 13.78
16Jan1995 MM @ 14.83 equity-index @ 26.44
20Jan1995 eq-index @ 26.19 MM @ 14.84
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 bond@47.56 (27.17%)
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 i-i bond@26.12 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 bond@ 48.84 MM@17.52 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 I-I bond@ 26.23 MM@17.52(27.17%)
16Jun1998 MM@ 17.84 TIAA Traditional (45.87%)
23Sep1999 MM@18.99 I-I bond@27.56 (53.32%)
17-18May2000 rate adjustment to 7.25% in SRA
12-13Jul2000 rate adjustment to 7.5% in SRA
Values, 30Nov2000: stock, 185.26; MM, 20.37; bond, 56.71; inflation-indexed bond, 30.83;
TIAA current yield in SRA, 7.5%
Gain, 1988: 18.91%; 1989: 14.48%; 1990: 8.28%; 1991: 27.93%; 1992: 10.20%; 1993: 3.08%; 1994: 4.07%; 1995: 4.80%; 1996: 5.28%; 1997: 5.38%; 1998: 5.72%; 1999: 5.12%
Gain, January 1 through September 30, 2000: 7.023% (9.51% annual rate of return)
Total gain since January 1, 1988 (12.25 years): 208.27%
Compound annual rate of return: 9.23% (My long-term target: in excess of 15%)
Gain shown excludes the impact of additional monthly cash contributions.
Buying CREF stock on January 1, 1988 and holding it gained
558.86%, for a compound annual rate of return of 16.28%.
COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend":
We're still on a SELL signal
given September 18. The bear continues on....
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Tue 1 Aug 00 . I .# ]|10606.95 + . *
Wed 2 Aug 00 . I # |10687.53 |+. *
Thu 3 Aug 00 . & . |10706.58 |+. *
Fri 4 Aug 00 . | # }|10767.75 | + *
Mon 7 Aug 00 . | . # |10867.01 | .+ *
Tue 8 Aug 00 . | .# |10976.89 | .+ *
Wed 9 Aug 00 . | #. |10905.83 | + *
Thu 10 Aug 00 . | # |10908.76 | .+ *
Fri 11 Aug 00 . | .# |11027.80 | .+ *
Mon 14 Aug 00 . | . # |11176.14 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 15 Aug 00 . | #. |11067.00 | .+ *
Wed 16 Aug 00 . | #. |11008.39 | .+ *
Thu 17 Aug 00 . | . # |11055.64 | .+ *
Fri 18 Aug 00 . #| . |11046.48 | + *
Mon 21 Aug 00 . | #. |11079.81 | + *
Tue 22 Aug 00 . | #. |11139.15 | + *
Wed 23 Aug 00 . |# . |11144.65 |+. *
Thu 24 Aug 00 . | #. |11182.74 |+. *
Fri 25 Aug 00 . | #. |11192.63 |+. *
Mon 28 Aug 00 . | .# |11252.84 | + *
Tue 29 Aug 00 . |# . |11215.10 | + *
Wed 30 Aug 00 . | #. |11103.01 | + *
Thu 31 Aug 00 . | .# |11215.10 | + *
Fri 1 Sep 00 . | .# |11238.78 | .+ *
Tue 5 Sep 00 . | # |11260.61 | + *
Wed 6 Sep 00 . | .# |11310.64 | .+ *
Thu 7 Sep 00 . | # |11259.87 | .+ *
Fri 8 Sep 00 . | #. |11220.65 | .+ *
Mon 11 Sep 00 . | .# |11195.49 | .+ *
Tue 12 Sep 00 . | #. |11233.23 | .+ *
Wed 13 Sep 00 . | #. |11182.18 | + *
Thu 14 Sep 00 . | #. |11087.47 | + *
Fri 15 Sep 00 . & . |10927.00 | + *
Mon 18 Sep 00 # I . {|10808.52 + . *
Tue 19 Sep 00 .# I . |10789.29 |-. *
Wed 20 Sep 00 # . I . |10687.92 |~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 21 Sep 00 # I . |10765.52 | .- *
Fri 22 Sep 00 .# I . |10847.37 | .- *
Mon 25 Sep 00 . #I . |10808.15 | .- *
Tue 26 Sep 00 .# I . |10631.32 | .- *
Wed 27 Sep 00 . & . |10628.36 | - *
Thu 28 Sep 00 . I .# |10824.06 |-. *
Fri 29 Sep 00 . I# . |10650.92 + . *
Mon 2 Oct 00 . I# . |10700.13 + . *
Tue 3 Oct 00 . & . |10719.74 |+. *
Wed 4 Oct 00 . #I . |10784.48 |+. *
Thu 5 Oct 00 . #I . |10724.92 + . *
Fri 6 Oct 00 # . I . |10596.54 | - *
Mon 9 Oct 00 #. I . |10568.43 | .- *
Tue 10 Oct 00 #. I . |10524.40 | .- *
Wed 11 Oct 00 . & . |10413.79 | .- *
Thu 12 Oct 00 # . I . |10034.58 |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 13 Oct 00 .# I . |10192.18 | . - *
Mon 16 Oct 00 .# I . |10238.80 | .- *
Tue 17 Oct 00 # . I . |10089.71 | . - *
Wed 18 Oct 00 # . I . | 9975.02 | . - *
Thu 19 Oct 00 . & . |10142.98 | . - *
Fri 20 Oct 00 . & . |10226.59 | .- *
Mon 23 Oct 00 . #I . |10271.72 | .- *
Tue 24 Oct 00 . #I . |10393.07 | - *
Wed 25 Oct 00 #. I . |10326.48 | - *
Thu 26 Oct 00 .# I . |10380.12 | - *
Fri 27 Oct 00 . I# . |10590.62 | - *
Mon 30 Oct 00 . I .# |10835.77 |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 31 Oct 00 . | . # |10971.14 + . *
Wed 1 Nov 00 . |# . |10899.47 |+. *
Thu 2 Nov 00 . | # |10880.51 | + *
Fri 3 Nov 00 . | #. |10817.95 | .+ *
Mon 6 Nov 00 . | # |10977.21 | + *
Tue 7 Nov 00 . |# . |10952.18 | + *
Wed 8 Nov 00 . | #. |10907.06 | + *
Thu 9 Nov 00 .# I . |10834.25 |+. *
Fri 10 Nov 00 # I . |10602.95 + . *
Mon 13 Nov 00 # I . |10517.25 |-. *
Tue 14 Nov 00 . I .# |10681.06 |-. *
Wed 15 Nov 00 . I# . |10707.60 |-. *
Thu 16 Nov 00 . #I . |10656.03 |-. *
Fri 17 Nov 00 . #I . |10629.87 + . *
Mon 20 Nov 00 #. I . |10462.65 |-. *
Tue 21 Nov 00 . #I . |10494.50 | - *
Wed 22 Nov 00 #. I . |10399.32 |~.-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 24 Nov 00 . I # |10470.23 | - *
Mon 27 Nov 00 . I #. |10546.07 |-. *
Tue 28 Nov 00 . #I . |10507.58 |-. *
Wed 29 Nov 00 . #I . |10629.11 |-. *
Thu 30 Nov 00 #. I . |10414.49 |-. *
========================================================================
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": The trend continues down since I began tracking
this on February 28, 2000.
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND ____________________________ Tue 1 Aug 00 #. I . | 3685.52 | . - *> Wed 2 Aug 00 # I . | 3658.46 | . - * Thu 3 Aug 00 # I . | 3759.88 | . - * Fri 4 Aug 00 . & . | 3787.36 | .- * Mon 7 Aug 00 . I #. | 3862.99 | - * Tue 8 Aug 00 . #I . | 3848.55 |-. * Wed 9 Aug 00 . & . | 3853.50 |-. * Thu 10 Aug 00 #. I . | 3759.99 |-. * Fri 11 Aug 00 .# I . | 3789.47 |-. * Mon 14 Aug 00 . & . | 3849.69 | - * Tue 15 Aug 00 . #I . | 3851.66 | - * Wed 16 Aug 00 . #I . | 3861.20 | - * Thu 17 Aug 00 . I# . | 3940.87 |-. * Fri 18 Aug 00 . I #. | 3930.34 + . * Mon 21 Aug 00 . I# . | 3953.15 + . * Tue 22 Aug 00 . I# . | 3958.21 + . * Wed 23 Aug 00 . I# . | 4011.01 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~* Thu 24 Aug 00 . I# . | 4053.28 |+. * Fri 25 Aug 00 . I# . | 4042.68 |+. * Mon 28 Aug 00 . I .# | 4070.59 |+. * Tue 29 Aug 00 . I #. | 4082.17 |+. * Wed 30 Aug 00 . I # | 4103.81 | + * Thu 31 Aug 00 . | . # | 4206.35 | .+ * Fri 1 Sep 00 . | # | 4234.33 | .+ * Tue 5 Sep 00 . |# . | 4143.18 | + * Wed 6 Sep 00 . #I . | 4013.34 | + * Thu 7 Sep 00 . | .# | 4098.35 | + * Fri 8 Sep 00 . #I . | 3978.41 |+. * Mon 11 Sep 00 .# I . | 3896.35 + . * Tue 12 Sep 00 . #I . | 3849.51 |-. * Wed 13 Sep 00 . I# . | 3893.89 + . * Thu 14 Sep 00 . I # | 3913.86 + . * Fri 15 Sep 00 # I . | 3835.23 |-. * Mon 18 Sep 00 # . I . | 3726.52 |-.*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Tue 19 Sep 00 . & . | 3865.64 |-. * Wed 20 Sep 00 .# I . | 3897.44 | - * Thu 21 Sep 00 #. I . | 3828.87 | .- * Fri 22 Sep 00 #. I . | 3803.76 | .- * Mon 25 Sep 00 .# I . | 3741.22 | .- * Tue 26 Sep 00 #. I . | 3689.10 | . - * Wed 27 Sep 00 #. I . | 3656.30 | . - * Thu 28 Sep 00 . I #. | 3778.32 | .- * Fri 29 Sep 00 .# I . | 3672.82 | - * Mon 2 Oct 00 #. I . | 3568.90 |-. * Tue 3 Oct 00 # . I . | 3455.83 |*.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Wed 4 Oct 00 # I . | 3523.10 | .- * Thu 5 Oct 00 # . I . | 3472.10 | . - * Fri 6 Oct 00 # . I . | 3361.01 | . - * Mon 9 Oct 00 # . I . | 3355.56 | . - * Tue 10 Oct 00 # . I . | 3240.54 @|~.*~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Wed 11 Oct 00 # . I . | 3168.49 @| . - * Thu 12 Oct 00 # . I . | 3074.68 @| . *- Fri 13 Oct 00 . #I . | 3316.77 @| . - * Mon 16 Oct 00 # I . | 3290.28 | . - * Tue 17 Oct 00 # . I . | 3213.96 | . - * Wed 18 Oct 00 # . I . | 3171.56 | . - * Thu 19 Oct 00 . I# . | 3418.60 | . - * Fri 20 Oct 00 . I# . | 3483.14 | .- * Mon 23 Oct 00 . & . | 3468.69 | .- * Tue 24 Oct 00 .# I . | 3419.79 | - * Wed 25 Oct 00 # . I . | 3229.57 | - * Thu 26 Oct 00 # I . | 3272.18 | .- * Fri 27 Oct 00 .# I . | 3278.36 | .- * Mon 30 Oct 00 #. I . | 3191.40 | . - * Tue 31 Oct 00 . I #. | 3369.63 | .- * Wed 1 Nov 00 .# I . | 3333.39 | - * Thu 2 Nov 00 . I #. | 3429.02 |-. * Fri 3 Nov 00 . I# . | 3451.58 |-. * Mon 6 Nov 00 . & . | 3416.21 + . * Tue 7 Nov 00 . & . | 3415.79 + . * Wed 8 Nov 00 # . I . | 3231.70 |-. * Thu 9 Nov 00 # . I . | 3200.35 | - * Fri 10 Nov 00 # . I . | 3028.99 |~.*-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Mon 13 Nov 00 # . I . | 2966.72 | . - * Tue 14 Nov 00 . & . | 3128.27 | . - * Wed 15 Nov 00 . #I . | 3165.49 | . - * Thu 16 Nov 00 # . I . | 3031.88 | . - *< Fri 17 Nov 00 #. I . | 3027.19 | . - * Mon 20 Nov 00 # . I . | 2875.54 | . - *< Tue 21 Nov 00 # . I . | 2871.45 | . -* Wed 22 Nov 00 # . I . | 2755.34 @|*.~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Fri 24 Nov 00 . I# . | 2904.38 | . - * Mon 27 Nov 00 #. I . | 2880.49 | . - * Tue 28 Nov 00 # . I . | 2734.98 | . - * Wed 29 Nov 00 # . I . | 2706.93 | . - * Thu 30 Nov 00 # . I . | 2597.93 | . -* ---------------------------------------------------------------- ========================================================================"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces:
NEXT ISSUE - will appear about December 30.
/Nick Chase