SUMMARY - "PIG":
The Contrarian's View is published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. Material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet through the World-Wide Web service at Assumption College. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, Open URL http://nick.assumption.edu. Mailed paper subscriptions, one year for $39 to The Contrarian's View, 132 Moreland Street, Worcester, Massachusetts 01609. There is a limit of 50 paid subscribers at one time; please check for availability before sending any money. Sorry, Visa and Mastercard are not available. Overseas subscription rate, U.S. $54. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! Phone: (508) 757-2881
For me, the surprise question put to the candidates was, what would they do if the stock market tanked? (Not the exact words, but that was the gist of the question.) A surprise, because the question was asked at all... in earlier years, the behavior of the stock market would not be prominent enough in the public consciousness to merit questioning the candidates about it. It is, I guess, a measure of how much bubblemania has infected the populace that there would be widespread interest in the issue.
Anyway, after both candidates had given their answers I thought I had heard them both say that they would act to prop it back up.But I wasn't sure I'd heard right, so I went onto the Internet to locate the exact dialogue.... and here is the question, along with the relevant portions of the candidates' responses:
MODERATOR: New question. There can be all kinds of crises, Governor. A questions for you. There could be a crisis, for instance, in the financial area, the stock market could take a tumble, there could be a failure of a major financial institution. What is your general attitude toward government intervention in such events?
BUSH: Well, it depends, obviously. But what I would do first and foremost, is I would get in touch with the Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, to find out all the facts and all the circumstances. I would have my Secretary of the Treasury be in touch with the financial centers not only here, but at home. I would make sure that key members of Congress were called in to discuss the gravity of the situation. And I would come up with a game plan to deal with it. That's what governors end up doing. We end up being problem solvers. We come up with practical, common sense solutions for problems that we're confronted with. In this case, in the case of a financial crisis, I would gather all the facts before I made the decision as to what the government ought or ought not to do.
MODERATOR: Vice President Gore?
GORE: ....On the international financial crises that come up, my friend, Bob Rubin, the former Secretary of Treasury is here, he's a close advisor to me and great friend in all respects. I have had a chance to work with him and Alan Greenspan and others on the crisis following the collapse of the Mexican peso. When the Asian financial crisis raised the risk of world-wide recession that could affect our economy, and now, of course, the euro's value has been dropping, but seems to be under control. But it started for me in the last eight years when I had the honor of casting the tie-breaking vote to end the old economic plan here at home and put into place a new economic plan that has helped us to make some progress, 22 million new jobs, the greatest prosperity ever. But it's not good enough. My attitude is you ain't seen nothing yet. We need to do more and better.
MODERATOR: So, Governor, would you agree there is no basic difference here on intervening -- on federal government intervening in what might be seen by others to be a private financial crisis?
BUSH: No, there's no difference on that.
Oh, I see. Free-market capitalism is good when things are on the
upswing. But when some market goes into the crapper, a heavy dose
of socialist government intervention is called for. What, exactly, differentiates these two men? Well, Bush said "it depends".... a nice loophole.... and Gore stood on his record of past
interventions without really answering the question. As far as I
can tell, both candidates merely reinforced what is currently
unannounced official policy.... but if they can be taken at their
word (always an iffy proposition where politicians are involved),
there is no doubt what the official policy will be come next
January.
Until 1982, the Nasdaq, which started trading in 1971 with an index value of 100, never exceeded 200. By 1990, it was still below 500. It touched 1,000 for the first time in 1995 and 2,000 in 1998. From there it soared to over 5,100 in March of this year. Never before in the history of financial markets has there been such a highly-priced large market (market cap of over $6 billion at its March peak) as the Nasdaq. Based on current earnings of approximately $25 billion, my estimate is that the Nasdaq will decline to anywhere between 800 and 1,500. I base this forecast on Nasdaq earnings either remaining at about the current level (no growth) or rising to around $40 billion before major earnings disappointments kick in and reduce the Nasdaq's P/E to about 40. - Marc Faber
It should be noted, contrary to popular belief, crash markets begin with oversold conditions as the majority of bulls who have successfully bought the breaks for years get trapped in a situation they do not fully understand. The majority of bulls and the majority of public for that matter do not know how to place sell orders. The idea of selling stocks is very unnatural. Real bulls buy and hold until they panic all at the same time somewhere close to the bottom. - Dennis V. Leontyev [Vice President - Derivatives Trading, Commodity Resource Corp.]
The bogus numbers about U.S. GDP and productivity growth for the second quarter have once postponed the day of reckoning for the U.S. financial markets and the dollar. The great digital divide between America and Europe is not in the economies. It is in vast differences in statistical measurement and in the propaganda. Fed members in general and Mr. Greenspan specifically play a key role in misinforming the public. Nevertheless, the rapidly deteriorating fundamentals of the economy and the financial system - trade deficit, savings, indebtedness - are inexorably leading to the bursting of the bubble. We regard it as quite near, yet precise timing is not possible. - Kurt Richebacher
No one can know whether we are facing a calamitous situation similar to that of the 1920s in the United States and the 1980s in Japan. We cannot plan the future by the past, and we cannot predict the future. But we may speculate on the consequences of certain actions and policies because we do have some knowledge of natural and economic laws that are basic and fundamental to human nature and are discoverable by human reason. This is why we look upon the equity market as a bubble area which will last as long as the common faith in the "new era" sustains it and the Fed provides the necessary funds for it. Austrian economists also know that any and all funds created by the Fed, even if they do not cause goods prices to rise significantly, falsify the market structure and necessitate corrections. Nine years of credit expansion have created countless maladjustments which the market sooner or later will correct. The severity of the correction will depend not only on the gravity of the maladjustments but also on the remedial policies intended to prevent the readjustment. During the 1930s the Hoover and Roosevelt policies aggravated and prolonged the readjustment, making it the Great Depression. Similarly, the Japanese government aggravated the maladjustment with monetary and fiscal policies that have prevented a recovery until now a decade later. Both examples make us fearful that the Fed and the U.S. Government will make matters worse as soon as a market readjustment comes into sight. - Hans F. Sennholz
....market intervention, including the stock market, has become a significant feature of the postwar economic landscape. But has it actually proved beneficial? In one sense, the answer is yes. There have been no recurrences of a 1930s-style depression. But as the postwar decades have rolled on, financial instability and crises have become recurrent events, each with increasing frequency and severity. Such crises made their first appearance in the 1970s. They proliferated by the end of the 1980s. They became an endemic feature of the 1990s, culminating in a major market meltdown in 1998 that led famed speculator, George Soros, to write of a crisis of global capitalism. Each major market dislocation has been met with an interventionist response. Market practitioners have duly taken note by assuming even greater risk and leverage, thereby propagating even greater financial fragility as a consequence. - Marshall Auerback
Stock prices had fallen sharply on Thursday [October 12]. Then, with the help of mysterious buying the next morning, Wall Street made a nice recovery on Friday. On this past Wednesday [October 18], again the Dow Jones industrial average was down - more than 400 points in morning trading. Suddenly, sources tell me, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and perhaps others threw caution to the wind and saved the market through heavy buying of Standard & Poor's and Nasdaq futures. Stock prices closed lower Wednesday. But the suspicious and timely buying probably averted a crash. You and I will probably never know whether the Fed was behind the futures purchases by those firms. And Alan Greenspan will never admit that he is interfering in the supposedly free market. - John Crudele
While some may wish to believe that there has been a slowdown in money growth, the reality is that after a protracted period of historic monetary excess, money supply expansion has actually accelerated. During the past 10 weeks [ending September 30], broad money supply has surged $166 billion, an annualized rate of almost 13%. Over the past 20 weeks, M3 has expanded at a rate of nearly 10% And while several economists a couple months back were trying to point towards a temporary slowdown in M2 as evidence of a slowing economy, such analysis has been muffled by 10-week M2 growth of $110 billion, or 12% annualized. ....money market funds accounted for more than half of broad money supply growth. - Doug Noland
As long as there is no anchor for monetary policy and as long as policy makers choose not to recognize the forces of inflation when they see them, I will argue that the error will occur on the inflation side of the price stability question. And the longer that it takes for policymakers to accept responsibility for their delusional gamble on productivity, the harder it will be for them to do so when all prices begin to accelerate. - Ed Bugos
But, you may ask, how can a company provide a non-recourse loan [to an owner of a popular stock], or protect against loss, while still providing the insider the upside to higher stock prices? The answer lies in "financial engineering." Through hedging - "dynamic hedging" - the issuers of these derivative products are theoretically able to protect themselves against a decline in stock prices with sophisticated computerized trading programs - often by shorting the underlying stock into declines. Of course, this is the same type of strategy that failed miserably with the "portfolio insurance" debacle in 1987 and with LTCM in 1998. However, these products are so popular that the myth that they actually work as prescribed is perpetuated. Basically, there are two key erroneous assumptions built into these dynamic hedging strategies: liquidity and continuous markets. Bear markets provide neither. When stocks collapse quickly, there is a big problem as it becomes impossible to implement the necessary hedges.... It is not difficult to see how a lender caught in this predicament could quickly face insolvency. Indeed, with the collapse of stocks throughout the Internet and technology sector, it is a certainty that the operators of these strategies have suffered huge losses. - Doug Noland
Years from now when we all look back at this period, the most incredible statistic of all will undoubtedly be that one stock - JD Uniphase - traded in one day as much as was spent on all the goods and services purchased in the entire country. If there ever was a defining moment for the mania, that was the moment. - Alan Newman
A concerted effort by the central banks to support the failing euro against a freakishly strong dollar has produced hardly a blip, implying that the currency markets are beginning to spin out of control. The long bull market in the dollar will eventually end,wrecking the global bull market in securities and derivatives that to a large extent has fed on absolute and universal confidence in the dollar. But there will be no soft landing, and the dollar's reversal will not be at the pleasure of policy makers. I predicted.... earlier that the turn will come with the euro trading near 73 cents, down about 16 percent from a current 87 cents; I stand by that forecast. - Rick Ackerman
The trade deficit is an indirect measure of how much Americans are willing to go into debt.When they are feeling rich from the 'wealth effect,' they do not hesitate to spend. But when the 'wealth effect' turns negative, so does their willingness to part with cash or turn to credit. The 'wealth effect' has turned sharply down this year. Half of the nation's families own stocks. And stocks are down, on average, at least 15% [as of October 20]. The most popular 'must own' stocks are down a lot more - like Microsoft, Amazon and Intel...down 50% or more. So consumers are beginning to de-leverage themselves. And the real economy - like the trade deficit - is feeling the effects. - Bill Bonner
Excluding high-tech, manufacturing output, which accounts for 88 percent of industrial production, is at the same level as it was in October 1999, according to the Federal Reserve. High-tech output is carrying the entire factory sector on its shoulders, with a 52.8 percent year-over-year increase in September from a year earlier.... Output of motor vehicles and parts plummeted 20 percent at an annualized rate in the third quarter, the first quarterly decline since the first quarter of 1999 and the biggest since the first quarter of 1996, which coincided with a General Motors strike. - Caroline Baum
Bridgewater Associates notes that Amazon's junk bonds are now yielding 16.5%. They are trading at about 50 cents on the dollar - implying, according to Bridgewater's analysis - that bond investors give the company about a 54% chance of going bankrupt. Why then does the stock market put a $10 billion value on the company? Who will be right - bond investors or stock buyers? Stockholders might want to remember that in bankruptcy, the bondholders get to pick through the wreckage first. Maybe they will get to wander through Amazon's warehouses, pulling their favorite books off the shelves. - Bill Bonner
In every boom companies are formed primarily if not exclusively to take advantage of the public's appetite for all kinds of stocks. The average man, who never thinks of values but of prices, and is not governed by conditions but by fears, takes the easiest way - he stops thinking that there must a limit to the advances. That is why those outsiders who are wise enough not to buy at the top make up for it by not taking profits. The big money in booms is always made first by the public - on paper. And it remains on paper. - Jesse Livermore [1923]
It seems to me that either we all disarm or we all arm. It seems
to me unacceptably illogical to argue that crime victims must be
unarmed while the police, dealing with the very same criminals,
should be armed. This business of the elitists, living behind the
protection of pistols, telling the common folk you must not have
firearms smacks of totalitarianism. - Charley Reese
The Commission on Presidential Debates is really an establishment front designed to silence political dissent. That is precisely its purpose in excluding Ralph Nader, the presidential candidate for the Green Party; Pat Buchanan, the presidential candidate for the Reform Party; and Harry Browne, the Libertarian Party's candidate. The commission's message to the American people is that you can debate issues within the narrow parameters set by the corporate establishment that runs this country. You may not even hear any discussions that are outside those boundaries. - Charley Reese
Truth, long an ugly stepchild inside the Washington Beltway, is now a banished entity, a forgotten concept lost amid the buzz called spin and the manufacturing process called perception. Our elected officials lie openly, without fear of repercussion, secure in the knowledge that a gullible media will wink and report it because a good sound bite is preferable to reporting the facts. - Doug Thompson
I think Bush is a phony. His record in Texas strongly suggests he's a political animal more concerned with his own career and legacy than in doing what's right.... You see, I believe a politician like Bush -- one who claims to believe in the principles of limited government, individual rights, personal responsibility, but really doesn't -- can be as dangerous and destructive in the long run as a creep like Gore. Republicans need to remember some of the most heinous, big-government atrocities have been committed on their watch. Recall Nixon's wage-and-price controls, for instance. Recall George Bush Sr.'s betrayal on taxes, for another. - Joseph Farah
When Bill Clinton lies, he does it for a reason - to protect himself. You may not like it, but at least you understand the motive. But no one knows why Gore lies. - anonymous Democrat strategist
Well, the first drop of rain on the Bush-Gore parade is this news: Neither man is going to give anybody anything. Whatever benefits are provided will be paid for by the taxpayers. Both men act as if the surplus were a pot of gold left under a tree by leprechauns. Actually the surplus is an accounting trick, but if you want to believe that it is a real surplus, then at least face the fact that it is a temporary excess of tax revenue that politicians haven't gotten around to spending yet. - Charley Reese
The Constitution says that the government should defend us from foreign enemies. We have the strongest national offense in the history of the world and a very, very weak national defense. All we want from government, the reason we put up with taxes, the reason we put up with the intrusions, is because we think that it is going to defend us from foreign enemies and domestic predators. And we don't get either from the government. Today we have troops in almost 100 countries around the world. We have the ability to annihilate any country in the world. We can make enemies anywhere in the world and we have done so. We have bullied countries everywhere. But we have no ability to protect this country from a two-bit dictator who gets his hands on a nuclear missile. - Harry Browne
It should be painfully clear that real power in America stems not from the ballot box but from the cash box. Consider, in the last general election, at the national level only, politicians raised $2.4 billion (according to the Center for Responsive Politics). Of that, about $2 billion came from less than 1% of the contributors, i.e., from very rich people and/or entities that they control. Labor contributed roughly $60 million, about 2 cents on the dollar. Including contributions in kind, e.g., getting out the vote, phone banks, and pamphleteering, Labor contributed no more than five cents on the dollar. No wonder political support for Labor's agenda is so flaccid. In defense of politicians, they are in a tough spot. They must get money to buy television time. If they don't do that, they cannot be reelected. So it is understandable that they carry the water for those who pay them.... Consider: in 1950 the total money supply was about $150 billion. Today it is pushing $6.9 trillion! Where did all of this additional money come from? About $550 billion was created by the Federal Reserve, and the balance, about $6.4 trillion, was created by a small group of private companies - banks - which have been improperly empowered to create money out of nothing. Since they create money without work, what does it mean to throw a few billion to politicians to keep this bonanza going? How can Labor - which must work for its money - compete? The bottom line is this: the Congress has delegated to the banking system a power the Congress does not have under our Constitution, the power to create money out of thin air. Those who oppose Labor, and who have easy access to this newly-created money, have, in effect, an insurmountable advantage over Labor, which must work for the money it contributes to politicians. - Larry Parks
In the case of the Clintons and their ilk, however, anything
short of indictment is considered vindication and the fact that
prosecutor Robert Ray didn't think he could convict Hillary
Clinton before a black jury in DC is already being cited as proof
of her virtue.It is worth, therefore, hearing precisely what Ray
said.... "It is, in the independent counsel's judgment beyond
peradventure,that as a matter of historical fact, Mrs. Clinton's
input into the process was a significant - if not the significant
- factor influencing the pace of events in the travel office
firings and the ultimate decision to fire the employees. Accordingly, the independent counsel concludes that Mr. Clinton's sworn
testimony that she had no input into Watkins's decision or role
in the travel office firings is factually inaccurate." In other
words, she lied.Robert Ray, the prosecutor may not be able to say
this, but we, as citizens, can.... we have an absolute and necessary right to determine whether our politicians can be trusted,
whether they have told the truth, and what we should do about
it. While the media may help us, and prosecutors may inform us,
neither can replace this judgment. The sound citizen judgment in
the case of Mrs. Clinton is that she is a liar and belongs in no
public office. - Sam Smith
October's "crashette" seems to have been brought on by the widening spread between top-rated debt (U.S. Treasuries have done well this year) and high-yield debt (junk bonds), which has not performed well this year and is looking increasingly risky. The stock market is a good thermometer for the health of the credit markets.... when distortions appear, liquidity will suddenly disappear from stocks, requiring "correction" by the Fed. We've had two of these so far this year, one in April and one this month, both triggered by credit-market distortions, both success fully rescued by the Fed's friends.
Clearly, there is systemic risk. Really, I can't say how high that risk is, because I have no prior experience to guide me, but it is certainly greater than zero, which is the risk level one would expect when the government can print as much money as it likes. You know my opinion.... these periodic rescues serve only to increase moral hazard (and to keep the party going awhile longer, giving us more time to put our houses in order) until someday we get a liquidity failure that's too big to rescue.
But the Fed (in my opinion) thinks it's learned from the mistakes of Japan. In 1989, the Japanese central bank deliberately raised interest rates to deflate that country's stock-market bubble.... which it did.... but it also dealt a mortal blow to Japan's bloated debt structure, bringing on a decade of depressed asset values and more-or-less continuous recession. The Fed thinks it can deflect an abrupt change in psychology by applying interest rate pressure to slow down the economy while also buying stock futures (when needed) to slowly deflate stock prices, thereby avoiding the extreme mood swings seen in Japan in the 1990s or in the U.S. in the 1930s. But I would point out, even if the Fed should succeed, the destination is the same..... the markets will win out.... only the path taken to get there might be different.
Meanwhile, back in the "new economy", in case you hadn't noticed, the bottom has dropped out of the PC market. It seems that we might actually have reached a saturation level.... most people needing computers now have one, and there's no compelling new software which requires junking the older machines for newer, faster ones. I attribute some of this to the increasing use of the Internet, both at work and at home. One does not need a 400MHz processor to process data that crawls into your home over a 56kb modem. At work, if your experience is like mine, even if your organization has added capacity to its Internet connection, it simply can't keep up with the demand, so during the workday your Internet accesses are really sluggish. (My slow period comes in the late afternoon, when the students start their Napster downloads before going to dinner.) I think we'll need to see some serious upgrading of the capacity of the Internet backbone, and widespread high-speed access into homes, before people will hunger for the next-generation computers.
So it looks like the next recession is arriving on schedule.... no later than mid-2001. The NASDAQ market, clearly in bear mode, has been telling us this since last spring (after all, the Fed can't prop up everything). The NYSE also grinds along in a so-far-milder bear market, with the only protection offered by the stocks that are "too big to fail", that is, propped up by the futures-buying of the Fed's friends. The media, and probably most of your friends, still think this is a bull market. Presumably, you know better.
Since the popular stock averages (with the Fed's help) are following the typical election-year script, I would expect to see
the usual post-election bounce, a bigger bounce if Bush is elected president. (Historically, one year later there is no difference in stock prices whether the Democrat or the Republican wins
the presidency.) Then we enter the "safe period", between Thanksgiving and Christmas, when stocks typically do modestly well, or
at least mark time, and a crash of any kind is unlikely. So the
real pain and suffering (for those folks still believing that
"stocks always go up") is most likely deferred until early in the
new year.
Original cost (adjusted): $ 4,998.21
Present value: $ 4,256,41
Increase: $ -741.80 [-14.84%]
The performance of this portfolio and its predecessors ("Hedger's Delight", "Present and Future Income", "Crapshooter's Folly") from January 1987 to the present is -3.44%, for a compound annual rate of return of -0.25%. COMMENT on "Phoenix": There is no change from the last issue.
B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.
SUMMARY - "PIG":
Original cost: $ 9,024.00
Present value: $16,061.86
Increase: $ 7,037.86 [+77.99%]
COMMENT on "PIG": The PIGs' Web page is at
http://www.assumption.edu/HTML/Faculty/Kantar/WPigs.html
C. Roth rollover IRA - real portfolio, includes commissions:
SUMMARY - IRA:
Original (1983-86) cost: $ 8,326.19
Present value: $10,648.74
Increase: $ 2,322.55 [+27.89%]
The performance of this portfolio (including its predecessors)
from January 1, 1987 to the present is -2.90%, for a compound
annual rate of return of -0.20%.
D. CREF Pension plan; I switch between indexed stock/bond/money funds:
Date Sold Bought
13Mar1992 stock @ 56.65 MM @ 13.41
29Apr1992 MM @ 13.48 bond @ 31.19
19Jun1992 bond @ 32.14 MM @ 13.55
29Jun1992 MM @ 13.57 stock @ 56.74
24Jul1992 stock @ 56.76 MM @ 13.61
29Oct1992 MM @ 13.72 stock @ 58.61
23Dec1992 stock @ 61.48 MM @ 13.78
16Jan1995 MM @ 14.83 equity-index @ 26.44
20Jan1995 eq-index @ 26.19 MM @ 14.84
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 bond@47.56 (27.17%)
30Oct1997 MM@ 17.24 i-i bond@26.12 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 bond@ 48.84 MM@17.52 (27.17%)
11Feb1998 I-I bond@ 26.23 MM@17.52(27.17%)
16Jun1998 MM@ 17.84 TIAA Traditional (45.87%)
23Sep1999 MM@18.99 I-I bond@27.56 (53.32%)
17-18May2000 rate adjustment to 7.25% in SRA
12-13Jul2000 rate adjustment to 7.5% in SRA
Values, 27Oct2000: stock, 195.50; MM, 20.25; bond, 55.85; inflation-indexed bond, 30.41;
TIAA current yield in SRA, 7.5%
Gain, 1988: 18.91%; 1989: 14.48%; 1990: 8.28%; 1991: 27.93%; 1992: 10.20%; 1993: 3.08%; 1994: 4.07%; 1995: 4.80%; 1996: 5.28%; 1997: 5.38%; 1998: 5.72%; 1999: 5.12%
Gain, January 1 through September 30, 2000: 7.023% (9.51% annual rate of return)
Total gain since January 1, 1988 (12.25 years): 208.27%
Compound annual rate of return: 9.23% (My long-term target: in excess of 15%)
Gain shown excludes the impact of additional monthly cash contributions.
Buying CREF stock on January 1, 1988 and holding it gained
558.86%, for a compound annual rate of return of 16.28%.
COMMENT on NYSE "Timer's Trend":
We're still on a SELL signal
given September 18. Though the Dow may bobble about, the true
state of the market is reflected here, in this derivation from
the advance/decline line.
____________________________ NYSE TIMER'S TREND _______________________________
Tue 1 Aug 00 . I .# ]|10606.95 + . *
Wed 2 Aug 00 . I # |10687.53 |+. *
Thu 3 Aug 00 . & . |10706.58 |+. *
Fri 4 Aug 00 . | # }|10767.75 | + *
Mon 7 Aug 00 . | . # |10867.01 | .+ *
Tue 8 Aug 00 . | .# |10976.89 | .+ *
Wed 9 Aug 00 . | #. |10905.83 | + *
Thu 10 Aug 00 . | # |10908.76 | .+ *
Fri 11 Aug 00 . | .# |11027.80 | .+ *
Mon 14 Aug 00 . | . # |11176.14 |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 15 Aug 00 . | #. |11067.00 | .+ *
Wed 16 Aug 00 . | #. |11008.39 | .+ *
Thu 17 Aug 00 . | . # |11055.64 | .+ *
Fri 18 Aug 00 . #| . |11046.48 | + *
Mon 21 Aug 00 . | #. |11079.81 | + *
Tue 22 Aug 00 . | #. |11139.15 | + *
Wed 23 Aug 00 . |# . |11144.65 |+. *
Thu 24 Aug 00 . | #. |11182.74 |+. *
Fri 25 Aug 00 . | #. |11192.63 |+. *
Mon 28 Aug 00 . | .# |11252.84 | + *
Tue 29 Aug 00 . |# . |11215.10 | + *
Wed 30 Aug 00 . | #. |11103.01 | + *
Thu 31 Aug 00 . | .# |11215.10 | + *
Fri 1 Sep 00 . | .# |11238.78 | .+ *
Tue 5 Sep 00 . | # |11260.61 | + *
Wed 6 Sep 00 . | .# |11310.64 | .+ *
Thu 7 Sep 00 . | # |11259.87 | .+ *
Fri 8 Sep 00 . | #. |11220.65 | .+ *
Mon 11 Sep 00 . | .# |11195.49 | .+ *
Tue 12 Sep 00 . | #. |11233.23 | .+ *
Wed 13 Sep 00 . | #. |11182.18 | + *
Thu 14 Sep 00 . | #. |11087.47 | + *
Fri 15 Sep 00 . & . |10927.00 | + *
Mon 18 Sep 00 # I . {|10808.52 + . *
Tue 19 Sep 00 .# I . |10789.29 |-. *
Wed 20 Sep 00 # . I . |10687.92 |~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 21 Sep 00 # I . |10765.52 | .- *
Fri 22 Sep 00 .# I . |10847.37 | .- *
Mon 25 Sep 00 . #I . |10808.15 | .- *
Tue 26 Sep 00 .# I . |10631.32 | .- *
Wed 27 Sep 00 . & . |10628.36 | - *
Thu 28 Sep 00 . I .# |10824.06 |-. *
Fri 29 Sep 00 . I# . |10650.92 + . *
Mon 2 Oct 00 . I# . |10700.13 + . *
Tue 3 Oct 00 . & . |10719.74 |+. *
Wed 4 Oct 00 . #I . |10784.48 |+. *
Thu 5 Oct 00 . #I . |10724.92 + . *
Fri 6 Oct 00 # . I . |10596.54 | - *
Mon 9 Oct 00 #. I . |10568.43 | .- *
Tue 10 Oct 00 #. I . |10524.40 | .- *
Wed 11 Oct 00 . & . |10413.79 | .- *
Thu 12 Oct 00 # . I . |10034.58 |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 13 Oct 00 .# I . |10192.18 | . - *
Mon 16 Oct 00 .# I . |10238.80 | .- *
Tue 17 Oct 00 # . I . |10089.71 | . - *
Wed 18 Oct 00 # . I . | 9975.02 | . - *
Thu 19 Oct 00 . & . |10142.98 | . - *
Fri 20 Oct 00 . & . |10226.59 | .- *
Mon 23 Oct 00 . #I . |10271.72 | .- *
Tue 24 Oct 00 . #I . |10393.07 | - *
Wed 25 Oct 00 #. I . |10326.48 | - *
========================================================================
COMMENT on NASDAQ "Timer's Trend": The trend continues down since I began tracking
this on February 28, 2000.
____________________________ NASDAQ TIMER'S TREND ____________________________ Tue 1 Aug 00 #. I . | 3685.52 | . - *> Wed 2 Aug 00 # I . | 3658.46 | . - * Thu 3 Aug 00 # I . | 3759.88 | . - * Fri 4 Aug 00 . & . | 3787.36 | .- * Mon 7 Aug 00 . I #. | 3862.99 | - * Tue 8 Aug 00 . #I . | 3848.55 |-. * Wed 9 Aug 00 . & . | 3853.50 |-. * Thu 10 Aug 00 #. I . | 3759.99 |-. * Fri 11 Aug 00 .# I . | 3789.47 |-. * Mon 14 Aug 00 . & . | 3849.69 | - * Tue 15 Aug 00 . #I . | 3851.66 | - * Wed 16 Aug 00 . #I . | 3861.20 | - * Thu 17 Aug 00 . I# . | 3940.87 |-. * Fri 18 Aug 00 . I #. | 3930.34 + . * Mon 21 Aug 00 . I# . | 3953.15 + . * Tue 22 Aug 00 . I# . | 3958.21 + . * Wed 23 Aug 00 . I# . | 4011.01 |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~* Thu 24 Aug 00 . I# . | 4053.28 |+. * Fri 25 Aug 00 . I# . | 4042.68 |+. * Mon 28 Aug 00 . I .# | 4070.59 |+. * Tue 29 Aug 00 . I #. | 4082.17 |+. * Wed 30 Aug 00 . I # | 4103.81 | + * Thu 31 Aug 00 . | . # | 4206.35 | .+ * Fri 1 Sep 00 . | # | 4234.33 | .+ * Tue 5 Sep 00 . |# . | 4143.18 | + * Wed 6 Sep 00 . #I . | 4013.34 | + * Thu 7 Sep 00 . | .# | 4098.35 | + * Fri 8 Sep 00 . #I . | 3978.41 |+. * Mon 11 Sep 00 .# I . | 3896.35 + . * Tue 12 Sep 00 . #I . | 3849.51 |-. * Wed 13 Sep 00 . I# . | 3893.89 + . * Thu 14 Sep 00 . I # | 3913.86 + . * Fri 15 Sep 00 # I . | 3835.23 |-. * Mon 18 Sep 00 # . I . | 3726.52 |-.*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Tue 19 Sep 00 . & . | 3865.64 |-. * Wed 20 Sep 00 .# I . | 3897.44 | - * Thu 21 Sep 00 #. I . | 3828.87 | .- * Fri 22 Sep 00 #. I . | 3803.76 | .- * Mon 25 Sep 00 .# I . | 3741.22 | .- * Tue 26 Sep 00 #. I . | 3689.10 | . - * Wed 27 Sep 00 #. I . | 3656.30 | . - * Thu 28 Sep 00 . I #. | 3778.32 | .- * Fri 29 Sep 00 .# I . | 3672.82 | - * Mon 2 Oct 00 #. I . | 3568.90 |-. * Tue 3 Oct 00 # . I . | 3455.83 |*.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Wed 4 Oct 00 # I . | 3523.10 | .- * Thu 5 Oct 00 # . I . | 3472.10 | . - * Fri 6 Oct 00 # . I . | 3361.01 | . - * Mon 9 Oct 00 # . I . | 3355.56 | . - * Tue 10 Oct 00 # . I . | 3240.54 @|~.*~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Wed 11 Oct 00 # . I . | 3168.49 @| . - * Thu 12 Oct 00 # . I . | 3074.68 @| . *- Fri 13 Oct 00 . #I . | 3316.77 @| . - * Mon 16 Oct 00 # I . | 3290.28 | . - * Tue 17 Oct 00 # . I . | 3213.96 | . - * Wed 18 Oct 00 # . I . | 3171.56 | . - * Thu 19 Oct 00 . I# . | 3418.60 | . - * Fri 20 Oct 00 . I# . | 3483.14 | .- * Mon 23 Oct 00 . & . | 3468.69 | .- * Tue 24 Oct 00 .# I . | 3419.79 | - * Wed 25 Oct 00 # . I . | 3229.57 | - * ========================================================================"Timer's Trend" is based on 4% and 10% exponential moving averages of the New York Stock Exchange or NASDAQ advance/decline lines (that is, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks). There are many symbols shown above, but the ones that count are the braces:
NEXT ISSUE - will appear about November 30.
/Nick Chase