The Contrarian's View

Vol. XIII, #8, March 31, 1999

The Contrarian's View is published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. Material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet through the World-Wide Web service at Assumption College. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, Open URL http://nick.assumption.edu. Mailed paper subscriptions, one year for $39 to The Contrarian's View, 132 Moreland Street, Worcester, Massachusetts 01609. There is a limit of 50 paid subscribers at one time; please check for availability before sending any money. Sorry, Visa and Mastercard are not available. Overseas subscription rate, U.S. $54. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! Phone: (508) 757-2881

DOW 10,000

I would be more enthusiastic about Dow 10,000 if I felt that we were at the beginning or in the midst of a great bull market. But what I see here reminds me very much of 1966-68 (and again 1972) where the penetration of the millennial mark came when stock prices were very overpriced at the tail end of a bull market which had been ongoing for many years (at least in the case of 1966-68).

And what is the reality? The reality is, the majority of stocks are in a bear market, and have been so since April 1998. Most NASDAQ stocks have been in a bear market since July 1998. The Value Line and Russell 2000 unweighted stock indexes, more typical of the behavior of the average stock, are about 7% below their January 1999 levels, and about 20% below April 1998's highs (by definition, in a bear market!). Unless your mutual fund(s) are tracking the indexes, you may be suffering similar nonperformance.

Cash inflows into equity mutual funds are much diminished from last year at this time, with some weeks seeing net outflows. The influx of foreign money into Treasury securities (and into our stock market) has dwindled from $200-plus billion annually to only a few billion; thus interest rates are rising, and will likely continue to rise. Corporate earnings are actually declining (one reason P/Es are rising). Technical indicators show that the "smart money" is bailing out of stocks in a big way.

So, the greenhorn looks at Dow 10,000, sees a bull market, and believes people who say it's on the way to 36,000. I look at Dow 10,000 and see a bear market, except for twin manias in the big company stocks making up the popular weighted indexes, and in the "dot-com" stuff. One thing I learned from the "Nifty Fifty" mania of 1971-72; it may take awhile for what's caught up in the mania to follow the lead of the majority of stocks.... but they will. And when they do, they will fall a lot harder and take a lot longer to recover than those stocks which were not caught up in the feeding frenzy (for they were only overpriced, not obscenely overpriced).

In my opinion, this extreme divergence between the favored few and the great majority can have only one outcome: Meltdown! And probably sooner (weeks) rather than later (months).

Clinton Rapes Social Security
by J. Orlin Grabbe

The people who are now paying higher social security taxes to "save" Social Security will eventually be taxed again to pay the bonds issued to the Social Security Trust Fund. They will be taxed twice to pay for the same thing.

But the key here is that the current Social Security cash flow surplus is not government income. It is borrowed money. So [Bill Clinton's "budget surplus"] is a lie.... How nice that Bill Clinton is going to use some of this non-existent "surplus" to "save" Social Security.

Bend over, America.

QUOTES FOR THE MONTH

Whether or not [the stock market] is gripped by irrational exuberance is an issue you won't know for sure until after the fact, but.... that equities are highly valued I really wouldn't have much doubt right now. - Alan Greenspan [before Congress, February 23, 1999]

When the tables finally turn and the large cap stocks begin to sell-off, it is going to be a very nasty situation. With a large number of people invested in a small number of large stocks, there are going to be some major liquidity problems. - Marc Sexton

Total US domestic debt, including both non-financial and financial, now totals almost $22.7 trillion, or 260% of GDP. Throw in current stock market values of $14 trillion, and you have paper claims on the economy of more than $36 trillion, or 420% of total [annual] economic output (GDP). Total net credit growth in 1998 was a stunning $2.1 trillion, fully 45% greater than total credit growth in 1997. Moreover, in 1998, for the first time ever, the financial sector actually had more net borrowings than the nonfinancial sector.... Quite clearly, this is a credit system running completely out of control. And this is precisely why we so often refer to the highly-leveraged financial system. Indeed, the financial sector increased total debt more in 1998 than in it did during the first four years of this decade. With this in mind, the term "exponential growth" has historically been used to describe the explosion of credit that occurs at the latter stages of a credit bubble. What we have today is exactly exponential growth in credit that, during the end of the cycle, always acts to impair the financial system and economy for years to come. - David Tice

What.... is certainly not understood in our market today is that only individual market participants can hedge exposure with derivatives, not the entire market. If much of the market attempts to use derivatives for hedging, there is simply no one with the resources to take the other side of the trade. If no one takes the other side, the only way to hedge is to sell securities and, when the crisis begins, prices collapse as derivative related selling simply overwhelms the marketplace. With about $14 trillion of stock market value in the US today, the market is too large for significant amounts of risk to be "unbundled", as Mr. Greenspan likes to say. Indeed, who has the resources to "insure" against a 25% market correction that would involve stock market losses of $3.5 trillion? The answer is, no one. - David Tice

Consider the Great Depression, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Stupider words were never spoken. I want a cheeseburger, not rhetoric. - Cory Hamasaki

The free market is not a self-correcting machine. It is a social institution. This social institution is subject to the mythologies of the era. If men believe that prosperity is forever, that the stock market will grow at 10% per annum, decade after decade, when economic growth is 2% to 3% per annum, then they will not act in terms of a threat [Y2K] to that compounding. - Gary North

One of the great ironies of our age is that the Internet, created and nurtured by the government and by large corporations, has broken the control of information formerly exercised by those same institutions. - R. H. Wheatley

CLINTON QUOTES FOR THE MONTH

....White House people are saying, 'Well, he was in the hotel room, but.... it was consensual'.... There are plausible charges of rape here - rape, by the man who is now president of the United States. It's not a question of impeachment. It is not a question of conviction. It is a question of asking for answers from the president of the United States. He's got records, when he was attorney general of Arkansas. They're in his personal possession of where he is on that date. He will not release those records. - William Bennett [author, The Death of Outrage]

This woman was raped. There's no doubt about it.... What we have here is the textbook pattern of a serial sexual predator. - Dr. Stephanie Yarrow [clinical psychologist]

In a typically artful invention, Mr. Clinton told Mrs. Broaddrick, as he zipped up his pants, not to worry, he was sterile, the result of mumps. The conception of his daughter shortly after this 1978 encounter represents what the lawyers would call "conflicting testimony". - Mark Steyn

Ms. Broaddrick's account, however, is particularly compelling because, like Kathleen Willey, she has been a reluctant witness with no apparent political or financial motivation. I understand why she would not want to get involved with the Paula Jones case and why she would give an affidavit denying what she now says is true. I understand why a woman wouldn't file charges of rape 21 years ago -- especially against the attorney general of Arkansas -- especially if she's a married woman who's having an affair. And I understand why she has been reluctant to come forward now. When I was in law school, I learned that the best rape survivor from the prosecution's point of view is a woman who is old enough to tell her story, but not old enough to have ever had a smoke, a drink or a date. Ever since the Garden of Eden, in sexual matters, men have been dominant and women have taken the blame. Ms. Broaddrick says even she blamed herself at the time. After all, she had invited him up to her room. And she was sure she would not be believed. Now that she has come forward with her story, the National Organization for Women urges everyone to treat Juanita Broaddrick fairly and respectfully and to take her charges seriously. She must not be besieged by attacks on her mental state or character. NOW calls on President Clinton to denounce this "nuts or sluts" defense, the argument that she either made it up or asked for it. - Patricia Ireland [President, National Association for Women]

America cannot tolerate a rapist in the White House. And Bill Clinton is not denying Juanita Broaddrick's charges. He won't even acknowledge them. He sends his lawyers out to make parsed denials. He's betting that Americans have so lost their moral bearings that they won't demand accountability.... There is no middle ground on this one. If you believe Juanita Broaddrick, then you have to act to remove Clinton. Rape cannot be tolerated. We cannot be apathetic about sexual predators in high office. - Joseph Farah

A president who cannot rebut a charge that he's a rapist cannot be president. And if he can't bring himself to resign, he'll simply dissolve in our presence and become invisible. It'll be as if he never existed. Then again, Jay Leno or David Letterman might insist on keeping his legacy alive by reading nightly from the many statements Clinton-Gore issued over the years in defense of women who'd been victimized by male predators. - Wlady Pleszczynski

Bill Clinton must be presumed innocent until proven guilty, but the evidence is mounting that he is a serial sexual predator. How much smoke must we see before we decide that the house is on fire? How many more women have to come forward with tales of "inappropriate sexual contact" before the Democrats walk away from this man? At what point do the Democrats decide that decency is more important than their lust to regain control of Congress and our taxes? At what point do Democrats decide that character matters? - John N. Doggett

The Utah ski vacation blowup between Bill and Hillary Clinton was the result of Mrs. Clinton actually viewing the Juanita Broaddrick interview during the trip.... Mrs. Clinton had only heard about the interview, however a staff member gave her a videotape to watch at her leisure. According to the insider, Mrs. Clinton viewed the video of the DATELINE interview late in the evening after Bill and Chelsea had gone to sleep. She was so enraged at what she saw that she stormed into Bill's bedroom, picked up an antique lantern and threw it at her sleeping husband! A screaming match ensued. Chelsea overheard the argument and broke down crying and later told her father that she had wished he wasn't there. The vacation was quickly cut short. - Matt Drudge

Look, in the end it is simple. Clinton got elected to get laid, his wife to get power. He wanted to see what he'd get on the rope line, and look what he did get! ....My rage is that this shameless man could get elected, when his staff and many others knew of his record of lying and violence against women. Americans are decent people, and he has done irreparable harm to this country. - Lucianne Goldberg

Sometimes it involves trying to persuade women not to talk to reporters. Most of the women that Clinton's been involved with are pretty savvy types, they're career types, and they've got a lot to lose and they generally don't want to be public and they don't want a lot of attention. And what we do is we work on getting material on them to try to induce them not to compromise the President. - Betsey Wright [as recalled by Dick Morris in grand jury testimony]

Is it true what I hear that you're going to go public with the sexual stories on Bill Clinton? ....Well, let me give you some advice. If you do, you will be destroyed. Your reputation will be destroyed. And I represent the President of the United States. - Buddy Young [to Arkansas state trooper Roger Perry, 1993, as recounted by Perry in grand jury testimony]

It was a question of, I am afraid of this Administration. I have what I consider to be well-founded fears of what they are capable of. I believe that I have a far more informed perspective than most people in observing what they are capable of and I made a decision based on what I felt I knew to be the possibilities that could befall me. There was always a sense in this White House from the beginning that you were either with them or you were against them. The notion that you could just be a civil servant supporting the institution just was not an option. I had reason to believe that the Vince Foster tragedy was not depicted accurately under oath by members of the Administration. I knew based on personal knowledge, personal observations that they were lying under oath. So it became very fearful to me that I had information even back then that was dangerous. If you want a specific, the behavior in the West Wing with senior staff to the President during the time the Jerry Parks [death] came over the fax frightened me. He was if not the head of his campaign security detail in Arkansas, then somewhere in the hierarchy. He had been killed [in September 1993]. It was the reaction at the White House that caused me concern, as did Vince Foster's suicide. None of the behavior following Vince Foster's suicide computed to just people mourning Mr. Foster. It was far more ominous than that and it was extremely questionable behavior on the parts of those who were immediately involved in the aftermath. I don't know how much more I can be specific except to say I am telling you under oath today that I felt endangered and I was angry and I resented it and I still do. - Linda Tripp [grand jury testimony]

I, I, I, first of all - for fear of my life.... I would not, for fear of my life, I would not - I would not cross these people, for fear of my life.... - Monica Lewinsky [in conversation with Linda Tripp, as recorded on tape during Ken Starr's 'sting' operation and later downplayed by Monica on TV]

Bill Clinton has twice been elected president not because he is the "uncommonly good liar" that Senator Bob Kerrey esteems him. Clinton has slipped his skeletons into the White House because the institutions of American public life meant to scrutinize, investigate, and prosecute a public figure, when faced with the depravity of Clinton's life, froze up.... Clinton is the beneficiary of our institutions' inability to deal with a scoundrel. - R. Emmett Tyrrell, Jr.

Bill Clinton's only achievement in office is holding himself up as a mirror for the media to see its reflection: opportunist, devious, vain, treacherous, self-absorbed, immoral, cowardly, mitigating, dissembling, wobbly and inexact. If democracy and the rule of law are ever to be returned in this nation someone will have to make the rounds of the newsrooms and electronic gazettes and kick ass. - Norman Liebmann

American journalism is a bit like quantum mechanics, only more convoluted. Like sub-atomic particles, news stories don't actually exist until they have been observed, in this case by a major mainstream news outlet, preferably the New York Times or the Washington Post. But even after the story has been "observed" it is subject to the "uncertainty principle." Some gutless "news" exec has to wring his hands and agonize for weeks on end as to whether or not it would be proper to publish the news. Until he makes up his squirrelly little mind nobody else will touch it. It's "his" story after all. (The news media in this country suffer from the delusion that they own the news). But should he decide to publish it, the story suddenly springs full-blown into existence (like an electron newly observed) and before you know it everybody is talking about it as though it were "news." Never mind if it has been kicking around the Internet for months or even years. Stories on the Internet have only a shadow existence, never to bementioned in polite company. - Edward Zehr

Y2K QUOTES FOR THE MONTH

If we only have Ed Yourdon's 10-year depression, we'll be lucky. - Cory Hamasaki

We know that there will be disruptions in commerce. What we don't know is exactly how it will manifest itself. Will it be like the gas crisis of the 1970s when a government panic and management hysteria made slight shortfall into a disaster? Y2K is shaping up that way. With the message that "everything is fine", "everything is on schedule for September 1998". "No, make it December 31, 1998", "Oopsie, make it March 31, 1999", and now the rumor mill has the real completion date as July 1999. The idiots have set things up for a huge panic. It wouldn't have been a problem if they stated last year that the systems would not be fixed on time. Issued reasonable and factual information on contingencies that everyone can take.... But no, look at who's in charge, look deep into the soul of Ko-skin-em and tell me that you don't see a big-brain'ed control freak. Listen to his words, the fool has taken a situation that should have been a mere nuisance and is turning it into disaster. - Cory Hamasaki

I have had personnel working within the FAA's Y2K project state flatly that there is no way the FAA will get its new air traffic control mainframes installed, on line, and functioning in time. - Bruce Webster

I'm in Worshington DeeCee too and I've heard similar info from others, "Don't fly during the rollover. We're in big trouble." Again, no names please, this is the geekvine and some people are afraid for their jobs. - Cory Hamasaki

While no one can say that the rollover to the year 2000 will be trouble-free, I am impressed by the efforts to date to address the problem in the banking and financial system. For our part, the Federal Reserve System has now completed remediation and testing of 101 of its 103 mission-critical applications, with the remaining two to be replaced by the end of March. - Alan Greenspan [February 24, 1999]

The Dee Cee government just put 300 IBM'ers to work on Y2K. They conned, uh, received a 60 million dollar grant from the Feds and are asking for more. Two Arlington firms declared "Deathmarch" last month. I know geeks at both. One firm has demanded either 11 hour days five days/week or if you wish to work 8 hours/day, you can shift to 7 days a week, no holidays, vacations, or weekends until Y2K is solved. The "Deathmarch" has started here in DeeCee. Given the traffic, life demands, etc. our 11 hour days are not like 11 hour days in Spokane or Boise. I know geeks who are looking to bail, who are pissed that after years of begging to be allowed to work on the software that now, the massa is giving them a taste 'o the cat. -snap- Owee. Code, geek! Row well and live.... By the way, they are rowing to make the new July 1999 Y2K deadline, not the old March 31, 1999 deadline. - Cory Hamasaki

This obstacle of lawyers is evident in all industries. I know of banks, payroll companies, government agencies, insurance companies, water companies, etc., etc., etc. who have told me privately that they're done, complete, finished - but cannot announce this good news because of the lawyers. - Peter de Jager

I can safely say that most of the observers in the public press have grossly misunderstood the problem.... I track the press, not for information but to get a sense of what the sheeple are ingesting. The press will ignite the panic. Those idiots have issued clueless statements and detonated so many pomposity bombs that the public has been stunned into inaction.... "There's a problem," they say, "but only get two cans of Spam and one candle." Gradually the story leaks out, "this thing ain't under control, the orbit's decaying, the anti-matter is zapping sparks, and it's worse than we've been saying." At some point a real panic will be raging and it will be because they let the pressure build up too long. It's too late now. Maybe there was something we could have done. - Cory Hamasaki

During closed-door meetings of the White House's Y2K council, for instance, attendees began worrying about whether they should advise the public to make personal preparations. At one council meeting, an Agriculture Department representative complained that the agency's most frequent telephone inquiry has become: "How many cans of food should I stockpile for my family?" But government officials fret that if Americans are told to prepare, people would cash in their mutual funds and spark bank runs -- activities that could send the country into a recession or worse. The solution: Advise just limited preparation. - Declan McCullagh

The central government computer that controls Medicare and welfare payments is far behind schedule on Y2K repairs.... The US Department of Health and Human Services has abandoned plans to replace its payment management system, which hands out US$165 billion a year in federal funds. Instead, it is scrambling to reprogram the system.... Dozens of agencies rely on the payment management system. It funnels money to everything from research universities and state governments to airports receiving grants from the Federal Aviation Administration. - Declan McCullagh

I would not be surprised to see 10, 20, 30 percent of the Fortune 5,000 tank out in the next 5 years. Some of this is geekvine stuff, some is experience, some is first-hand knowledge which I will not indentify. - Cory Hamasaki

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK

So, at the current rate of progress, we are unlikely to see the meltdown before mid-May. If we get a somewhere-around-Dow-10,000 trading range similar to February's, we could be looking at July or autumn (tradition!) for the meltdown. Regardless, it must come before Y2K, and it will be a humdinger.

You would think, with less than nine months left to January 1, 2000, and with the odds exceedingly slim thast stocks would rise significantly before then, and with no way of predicting which companies will suddenly disappear due to failed Y2K remediation, that people would sit back (in cash) and wait until the dust has settled in 2000 before recommitting to stocks.... even if they don't subscribe to my anticipation that we're going to get a humongous market meltdown. But then, what do I know, I'm only an old-timer who survived (and prospered in) the 1970, 1973-74, 1980, 1982 and 1990 bear markets, and the 1987 Crash.

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

A. "Phoenix" -real portfolio, begun on October 1, 1995.

SUMMARY - "Phoenix":

             Original cost:         $ 8,090.45
             Present value:         $ 5,815.76
             Increase:              $-2,274.69 [-28.12%]

The performance of this portfolio and its predecessors ("Hedger's Delight", "Present and Future Income", "Crapshooter's Folly") from January 1987 to the present is -18.49%, for a compound annual rate of return of -1.64%.

COMMENT on "Phoenix": No change from the last issue. (Cash balance is not up to date.)

B. "Professors' Investment Group (PIG)" - investment club portfolio.

SUMMARY - "PIG":

             Original cost:         $ 8,675.00
             Present value:         $ 7,403.33
             Increase:              $-1,271.67  [-14.70%]

C. Roth rollover IRA - real portfolio, includes commissions:

SUMMARY - IRA:

             Original (1983-86) cost:  $ 8,326.19
             Present value:            $10,597.85
             Increase:                 $  2,271.66   [+27.28]

The performance of this portfolio (including its predecessors) from January 1, 1987 to the present is -3.37%, for a compound annual rate of return of -0.27%.

COMMENT on IRA: There is no change from the last issue.

D. CREF Pension plan; I switch between indexed stock/bond/money funds:

Date           Sold            Bought
13Mar92          stock @ 56.65      MM @ 13.41
29Apr92          MM @ 13.48         bond @ 31.19
19Jun92          bond @ 32.14       MM @ 13.55
29Jun92          MM @ 13.57         stock @ 56.74
24Jul92          stock @ 56.76      MM @ 13.61
29Oct92          MM @ 13.72         stock @ 58.61
23Dec92          stock @ 61.48      MM @ 13.78
16Jan95          MM @ 14.83         equity-index @ 26.44
20Jan95          eq-index @ 26.19   MM @ 14.84
30Oct97          MM@ 17.24          bond@47.56 (27.17%)
30Oct97          MM@ 17.24          i-i bond@26.12 (27.17%)
11Feb98          bond@ 48.84        MM@17.52 (27.17%)
11Feb98          I-I bond@ 26.23    MM@17.52(27.17%)
16Jun98          MM@ 17.84          TIAA Traditional (45.87%)
Values, 30Mar99: stock, 174.92; MM, 18.56; bond, 52.02;
inflation-indexed bond, 27.16; TIAA current yield in SRA, 6.00%

Gain, 1988: 18.91%; 1989: 14.48%; 1990: 8.28%; 1991: 27.93%; 1992: 10.20%; 1993: 3.08%; 1994: 4.07%; 1995: 4.80%; 1996: 5.28%; 1997: 5.38%
Gain, January 1 through December 31, 1998: 5.72% (5.72% annual rate of return)
Total gain since January 1, 1988 (11 years): 174.03%
Compound annual rate of return: 9.60%   (My long-term target: in excess of 15%)
Gain shown excludes the impact of additional monthly cash contributions.
Buying CREF stock on January 1, 1988 and holding it gained 442.42%, for a compound annual rate of return of 16.62%.

E. Current unfilled portfolio good-til-cancelled orders: None.

COMMENT on "Timer's Trend": We're still on the SELL signal from January 12 (in spite of new, above-10,000 Dow highs). Further new highs in the popular averages are possible.... as is a meltdown with virtually no warning. This is a mania..... watch the "computer warmline".... treat all sell signals with the greatest respect.

______________________________  TIMER'S TREND  _________________________________
Mon 12 Oct 98        .# I  .       | 8001.47  |~.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 13 Oct 98     #  .  I  .       | 7938.14  | .  -    *
Wed 14 Oct 98        #  I  .       | 7968.78  | . -           *
Thu 15 Oct 98        .  |# .       | 8299.36  |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 16 Oct 98        .  | #.       | 8416.76  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 19 Oct 98        .  | #.       | 8466.45  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 20 Oct 98        .  |  #       | 8505.85  |+.                          *
Wed 21 Oct 98        . #|  .      }| 8519.23  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 22 Oct 98        .  |# .       | 8533.14  |+.                       *
Fri 23 Oct 98        .# |  .       | 8452.29  + .      *
Mon 26 Oct 98        .  |# .       | 8432.21  +~.~~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 27 Oct 98        .  #  .       | 8366.04  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Wed 28 Oct 98        .  |# .       | 8371.97  + .      *
Thu 29 Oct 98        .  |  #       | 8495.03  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 30 Oct 98        .  |  #       | 8592.10  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  2 Nov 98        .  |  . #     | 8706.15  |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue  3 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 8706.15  | .+                  *
Wed  4 Nov 98        .  |  .  #    | 8783.14  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu  5 Nov 98        .  |  .#      | 8915.47  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri  6 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 8975.46  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  9 Nov 98        .  #  .       | 8897.96  | .+   *
Tue 10 Nov 98        .  #  .       | 8863.98  *~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 11 Nov 98        .  |# .       | 8823.82  |*.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 12 Nov 98        .  |# .       | 8829.74  |+.       *
Fri 13 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 8919.59  |+.                         *
Mon 16 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 9011.25  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 17 Nov 98        .  | #.       | 8986.28  | +              *
Wed 18 Nov 98        .  | #.       | 9041.11  | +                         *
Thu 19 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 9056.05  | +                            *
Fri 20 Nov 98        .  |  . #     | 9159.55  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 23 Nov 98        .  |  . #     | 9374.27  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 24 Nov 98        .  | #.       | 9301.15  | .+    *
Wed 25 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 9314.28  | .+       *
Fri 27 Nov 98        .  |  .#      | 9333.08  | .+           *
Mon 30 Nov 98    *   .  #  .       | 9116.55  |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue  1 Dec 98        .  |# .       | 9133.54  |+.         *
Wed  2 Dec 98        .  #  .       | 9064.54* |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu  3 Dec 98     *  . #I  .       |          +.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri  4 Dec 98        .  |  . #     | 9016.14  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  7 Dec 98        .  |  #       | 9070.47  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue  8 Dec 98        .  |# .       | 9027.98  |+.           *
Wed  9 Dec 98        .  | #.       | 9009.19  | +       *
Thu 10 Dec 98        .* I  .       | 8841.58  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 11 Dec 98        #  I  .      {| 8821.76  +~.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 14 Dec 98     #  .  I  . *     | 8695.60  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 15 Dec 98        . #I  .       | 8823.30  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 16 Dec 98        . #I  .       | 8790.60  | .-
Thu 17 Dec 98        .  I# .       | 8875.82  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 18 Dec 98        .  I# .       | 8903.63  | -                        *
Mon 21 Dec 98        .  I  #       | 8988.85  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 22 Dec 98        . #I  .       | 9044.46  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 23 Dec 98        .  I  .#      | 9202.03  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 24 Dec 98        .  I  .#      | 9217.99  | +                      *
Mon 28 Dec 98        .  I# .       | 9226.75  | +                       *
Tue 29 Dec 98        .  |  #      }| 9320.98  |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 30 Dec 98        .  | #.       | 9274.64  | +          *
Thu 31 Dec 98        .  |  .  #    | 9181.43  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon  4 Jan 99        .  |  #       | 9184.27  | .+     *
Tue  5 Jan 99        .  |  . #     | 9311.19  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed  6 Jan 99        .  |  .   #   | 9544.97  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu  7 Jan 99        .  |# .       | 9537.76  | . +                *
Fri  8 Jan 99        .  |  .#      | 9643.32  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 11 Jan 99        .  #  .       | 9619.89  | .+              *
Tue 12 Jan 99        .# I  .      {| 9474.68  |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Wed 13 Jan 99      # .  I  .  *    | 9349.56  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Thu 14 Jan 99      # .  I  .       | 9120.93  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Fri 15 Jan 99        .  I  . #     | 9340.55  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 19 Jan 99        .  I #.       | 9355.22  |-.                     *
Wed 20 Jan 99        .  I #.       | 9335.91  |-.                 *
Thu 21 Jan 99        .# I  .       | 9264.08  + .    *
Fri 22 Jan 99        #  I  .       | 9120.67  +.~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 25 Jan 99        .  &  .       | 9203.32  |-.                     *
Tue 26 Jan 99        .  &  .       | 9234.58  |-.                           *
Wed 27 Jan 99        .# I  .       | 9200.23  | -                    *
Thu 28 Jan 99        .  &  .       | 9281.33  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 29 Jan 99        .  I# .       | 9358.83  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  1 Feb 99        .  I# .       | 9345.70  + .                *
Tue  2 Feb 99        #  I  .       | 9274.12  |-.   *
Wed  3 Feb 99        .  I# .       | 9366.81  + .                    *
Thu  4 Feb 99        #  I  .       | 9304.50  |-.         *
Fri  5 Feb 99        #  I  .       | 9304.24  | -         *
Mon  8 Feb 99        #  I  .       | 9291.11  | .-     *
Tue  9 Feb 99     #  .  I  .       | 9133.03  |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 10 Feb 99        #  I  .       | 9177.31  | . -            *
Thu 11 Fab 99        .# I  .       | 9363.46  |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 12 Feb 99    #   .  I  .       | 9274.89  |~.~~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 16 Feb 99        .# I  .       | 9297.03  | . -        *
Wed 17 Feb 99     #  .  I  .       | 9195.47  |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 18 Feb 99        .# I  .       | 9298.63  | . -                       *
Fri 19 Feb 99        .# I  .       | 9339.95  |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 22 Feb 99        .  I #.       | 9552.68  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 23 Feb 99        .# I  .       | 9544.42  | -                 *
Wed 24 Feb 99        .# I  .       | 9399.67  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 25 Feb 99      # .  I  .       | 9366.34  |~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 26 Feb 99       #.  I  .       | 9306.58  |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon  1 Mar 99       #.  I  .       | 9324.78  | . -       *
Tue  2 Mar 99        #  I  .       | 9297.61  | . -  *
Wed  3 Mar 99        #  I  .       | 9275.88  |~*~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu  4 Mar 99        .  &  .       | 9467.40  |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri  5 Mar 99        .  I  . #     | 9736.08  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  8 Mar 99        .  I #.       | 9727.61  + .                 *
Tue  9 Mar 99        . #I  .       | 9693.76  + .           *
Wed 10 Mar 99        .  I# .       | 9772.84  |+.                          *
Thu 11 Mar 99        .  |# .       | 9897.44  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 12 Mar 99        . #I  .       | 9876.35  + .               *
Mon 15 Mar 99        .  &  .       | 9958.77  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 16 Mar 99        . #I  .       | 9930.47  + .              *
Wed 17 Mar 99        .# I  .       | 9879.41  |-.    *
Thu 18 Mar 99        .  I# .       | 9997.62  |-.                           *
Fri 19 Mar 99        #  I  .       | 9903.55  |-.         *
Mon 22 Mar 99        #  I  .       | 9890.51  | -      *
Tue 23 Mar *9   #    .  I  .       | 9671.83  |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 24 Mar 99        #  I  .       | 9666.84  | . -  *
Thu 25 Mar 99        .  &  .       | 9836.39  |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 26 Mar 99        #  I  .       | 9822.24  | . -             *
Mon 29 Mar 99        . I|# .       |10006.78  |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 30 Mar 99       #.  I  .       | 9913.26  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
======================================================================== 

NEXT ISSUE - will appear about April 26.     /Nick Chase