The Contrarian's View

Vol. XIII, #7, February 25, 1999

The Contrarian's View is published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. Material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet through the World-Wide Web service at Assumption College. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, Open URL http://nick.assumption.edu. Mailed paper subscriptions, one year for $39 to The Contrarian's View, 132 Moreland Street, Worcester, Massachusetts 01609. There is a limit of 50 paid subscribers at one time; please check for availability before sending any money. Sorry, Visa and Mastercard are not available. Overseas subscription rate, U.S. $54. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! Phone: (508) 757-2881

MISSED OPPORTUNITY?

My comments at the time were to the effect that the odds were low that the market would go much higher if post-WWII history was a good guide; and even if stocks did soar as high as they did in, say, the late 1920s, you would still be better off waiting it out in the money-markets until a good buying opportunity for stocks again presented itself.... for if you bought stocks at extremely overvalued levels, after they returned to their norms it would take you many years (if ever) to break even on your original investment.

This wasn't bad advice for the next two years. As usual, I was too early.... 1993 was a good year for stocks, but 1994 saw a bear market for most issues, though it wasn't reflected in the weighted averages.

Then came the bubble.

In March 1995, I was reluctant to jump into stocks for what was, in hindsight, the beginning of the bubble (though I gave "split advice"; young people should go for it), because of the extreme overvaluation that prevailed even then. I gave low odds that we would exceed the 1929 overvaluations, or those of Japanese stocks in 1989. But that is precisely what happened, courtesy of your friendly Uncle Al Greenspan.

So, from December 23, 1992 to the present (6.107 years to January 31, 1999) I have essentially been in the money-markets. During this time the CREF money-market fund has returned a 33.74% gain, for a compound annual rate of 4.8763%, while the CREF stock fund has gained 183.70%, for a CAR of 18.619%. My overall rate of return in my retirement fund is currently about 9.6%, so for six long years stocks have yielded twice my overall rate, while I've been sitting mostly in money-markets at half my overall rate, and at a quarter the rate of what I could have been making in stocks, while I was waiting for them to come back to earth.

The question is, is this still the right strategy to pursue in a bubble, or am I telling a little white lie? The "little white lie", in this case, would be that because stocks have risen so much in the bubble, thereby elevating the long-term rate of return for so long, that even if they go nowhere for the next decade, I would be better off holding stocks through the bubble and subsequent events, rather than sitting out both the bubble and its aftermath while waiting for a good entry point. In other words, are the "buy and-hold-forever" shills right, and I'm wrong?

The answer is: It depends on what follows the bubble.

For the sake of example, let's assume a bear market has begun in February 1999. And let's look at three previous bear-market periods: 1929-1940 (10.3 years) and 1966-1982 (16.7 years) in the U.S., and 1990-1999 (9.1 years) in Japan.

Since it peaked in 1989, the Japanese Nikkei has returned about a negative 9.2% compound annual rate on investment. The Great Depression, 1929 1940 (I chose 1940 as the ending year because the economy was gearing up for war) yielded about a -6% CAR for the Dow Industrials; and for 1966-1982 (the inflationary 1970s) the Dow CAR was about +1.5%.

For a future return on money-market funds, let me assume a 4.5% CAR, slightly less than what could have been earned in 1993-1999.

If the popping of our bubble leads to an outcome similar to what happened in Japan, then a $100,000 end-of-1992 equity investment would, in 9.1 years (March 2008), be worth $127,586, for a CAR of +1.62%. The money-market-fund for the entire 15.2-year period would increase from $100,000 to $199,635.

If we relive the Great Depression's market behavior, then in 10.3 years (May 2009) $100,000 in equities would be worth $155,673, for a CAR of 2.73%, (over 16.4 years) while the money-market fund would have increased to $210,463.

If the bubble's aftermath is inflationary rather than deflationary (unlikely! But possible), then with the 1970s as our guide, in 16.7 years (November 2015) equities would have risen from $100,000 to a $258,494 value, for a CAR of 4.25% (over 22.8 years), while the money-market would be $278,946.

Thus, if what is to follow the current bubble resembles any of these three bear periods, a money market investment will consistently outperform a buy-and-hold strategy for equities up to the point the next bull market begins. But, truth be known, neither of these strategies provides an adequate long-term return, which has been, in the U.S. and Canadian stock markets, 9% to 11% during this century.

However, the three bear-market periods I selected were not monolithic bears. From 1933 to 1940 (7 years), the Dow had about a 25% CAR (and this included a "secondary depression" in 1938); and from 1975 to 1982 (7.7 years) about a 10% CAR. The Nikkei looks less clear-cut; perhaps one could have caught the mid-1990s rise from 14000 to 20000, but I don't keep a "Timer's Trend" for Japanese stocks, so I doubt that I could have caught it. Mostly, Japanese stocks look like one continuous bear market (and still do).

So the secret (if we presume that the future will not trace the path of the Nikkei) is to wait until the megabear has run its course, typically three to five years, then buy stocks again when everybody else shuns them.... not trying to pick off the precise bottom, merely waiting for value to return to the market. Assuming we have a four-year wait (until February 2003) for the next bull market to get underway, if the 1933-1940 pattern were to prevail, equities would yield a 16.7% CAR for the 13.1-year period (to February 2006). If the 1970s pattern were repeated, stocks would produce a 9.1% CAR over the full 13.8 years (to September 2006). Split the difference; now we're talking meaningful long-term rates of return (while hoping that the Japanese experience is not repeated here).

Perhaps the best answer is: If you sit out the bubbles, leaving equities for the money markets when stocks first reach overvalue (traditionally, a Dow yield of under 3% and valuations in excess of 2.5 times book value) and return to equities at undervalue (Dow yield of 6%), you will consistently outperform a "buy-and-hold" strategy.... because money-markets consistently will outperform, even allowing for the bubble, when you take into consideration the bubble and its aftermath as a package.... yet you will be riding the "safe" bull markets, from undervalue to overvalue. Furthermore, when bear markets strike without a preceding bubble (the normal case), you will come out way ahead, because the buy-and-hold-forevers won't have those years of outsized bubble-gains added to their totals.

What would be really nice is if there were some way of safely being able to ride the bubble, getting out just before the collapse crushes the herd. Boy, I wish I had that skill! "Timer's Trend" seems to work pretty well for this, but my nerves just couldn't take the risk of the bubble popping without warning.... nor did I have faith that the Fed's rescues will always work.

Two other things to note from these figures: The 1929 market reached 80% of GDP, and stocks returned a negative 6% CAR for roughly the next ten years; Japanese stocks were valued at about 130% of GDP, and have returned -9.2% for slightly more than nine years. Our bubble has reached almost 150% of GDP; proportionately, this would project to a -10.5% CAR for the coming decade. Also, in the first two bubbles, most of the damage to the bulls was done in the first three years, allowing a much better-valued entry into stocks even if one did not get in at the very bottom. Something to look forward to.

Listen, a wind is rising...
by Cory Hamasaki

Within the IBM mainframe world, I'm more a generalist than a specialist. Unlike the typical MVS systems programmer, I crank code a lot, much of it on PeeCees using C and C++. I picked up a little theoretical computer science too.

I was fortunate enough to have a wide range of experiences along the way. During the mainframe boom of the 1970s, I spent some time coding 8080 Northstar assembler. I don't do CICS or IMS but I have worked on the internals of a mainframe DBMS.

What I do know, and know with some certainty is that there are about 50,000 IBM-style mainframes in the world. There are systems running that were written 30-40 years ago. The work has not been done to fix the problem on the enterprise systems side. These systems are at risk and will fail. The failures will not be of the nature that you can fix them in an hour or two.

A couple years ago, I surveyed a number of mainframe experts. Some of these people I have known for years. Most of them were gloomier than I am and even more certain that I am that the systems will fail.

Of the mainframe experts in my survey, there were a couple who did not anticipate serious outages. One of these pollyannas appears to have changed his mind. He's the IT director at a multinational corporation.

In the old days, people were appreciated for their skills and abilities. Somehow, this was lost in the 1980s. There was a decade of rightsizing and the superficial and clueless wormed their way into power. We had pop-biz-psych-jive, buzz-words, and management by magazine article and fad. This was followed by the 1990s, the decade of the quick buck, more flash, and mergers and acquisitions.

Beneath the fluff, handwaving, and powerpoint slides, the original systems have continued to run. As if every programmer who ever worked still toils for the company, still gets the bills out, still reconciles the books, still manages the information and advises the company.

Software doesn't rust and even the iron runs long after the its time is up. IT investment made decades ago still pays a dividend and all it asks for is a little power and floorspace and nothing else until now.

Now, a bill for accumulated maintenance is about to come due. These systems should have been continuously made new, revised, rewritten every 5 or 10 years. We have 20 years of back maintenance to do in then next 10 months. This work should have been done by a generation of workers who were never hired or trained.

It must be done, it cannot be deferred. There are 312 days left. There isn't enough time.

Management has started screaming in the District of Columbia, hey, it's not 1992, wha happened? Along with the screaming, there is the clueless bickering for larger budgets, is this a real problem, who let this happen, we're going to make it (usually said looking firm and clenching a fist).

Sorry people, in every war, there are winners and losers but mostly there are losers on both sides. We're not going to win this one. It can't be resolved, cap'n, I canna hold her....

I don't know what will happen. There's still a wall at 7,493 hours that I can't see past. I can hear sounds from the other side, like large animals growling and people yelling and I can't make out what they are saying.

I can't tell you how to get ready, gold doesn't ward off disease, food doesn't stop a riot, and walls don't keep unemployment out. I don't know if it's the Masque of the Red Death, a business opportunity, the Eloi, or the new golden age that awaits us.

This is the first time (other than that moment 65 million years ago) that so much has changed in so short a time. All computers transition to a new state at the same time and some, the majority perhaps, transition to an undefined state.

We can't fix this, there is no solution, time has run out.

Unfortunately, the press has run this story so much that every clueless bombastic pontificator thinks they understand enterprise systems, operating systems internals, and complex applications.

I've heard it all, "you're too close to the problem", "we're 'mer-kins", "this is just hype", and other droolings.

That's just clueless wishing. Whistling in the graveyard. This is one problem that cannot be solved, something wicked this way comes. Listen, a wind is rising...

The Ant and the Grasshopper
by Taz Richardson

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks he's a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed. The grasshopper has no food or shelter so he dies out in the cold.

However, this is the "old fashioned" tale of the ant and the grasshopper. Here is the Modern American Version:

The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long building his house and laying up supplies for the winter. The grasshopper thinks he's a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while others are cold and starving.

CBS, NBC and ABC show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper next to video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food. America is stunned by the sharp contrast. How can it be that, in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so? Then a representative of the NAGB (National Association of Green Bugs) shows up on Nightline and charges the ant with "green bias," and makes the case that the grasshopper is the victim of 30 million years of "greenism." Kermit the Frog appears on Oprah with the grasshopper and everybody cries when he sings "It's not easy being green."

Bill and Hillary Clinton make a special guest appearance on the CBS Evening News to tell a concerned Dan Rather that they will do everything they can for the grasshopper who has been denied the prosperity he deserves by those who benefitted unfairly during the Reagan summers. Richard Gephardt exclaims in an interview with Peter Jennings that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper, and calls for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his "fair share." Finally, the EEOC drafts the "Economic Equity and Anti Greenism Act," retroactive to the beginning of the summer. The ant is fined for failing to hire a proportionate number of green bugs and, having nothing left to pay his retroactive taxes, his home is confiscated by the government.

Hillary gets her old law firm to represent the grasshopper in a defamation suit against the ant. The case is tried before a panel of Federal Hearing Officers that Bill Clinton appointed from a list of single-parent welfare moms who can only hear cases on Thursdays between 1:30 and 3 PM. The ant loses the case.

The story ends as we see the grasshopper finishing up the last bits of the ant's food while the government house he's in, which just happens to be the ant's old house, crumbles around him since he doesn't know how to maintain it. The ant has disappeared in the snow. And on the TV, which the grasshopper bought by selling most of the ant's food, they are showing Bill Clinton standing before a wildly applauding group of Democrats announcing that a new era of "fairness" has dawned in America.

QUOTES FOR THE MONTH

Only 15 stocks in the S&P 500 accounted for 50% of that index's gains in 1998 and 55% of all NYSE issues were down for the year.... The simple truth has been that most stocks are not in bull mode. - Alan Newman

In half the world, from Tokyo to Moscow, the financial 'tidal wave' has already crashed, devastating stocks, bonds and many currencies and placing citizens, financial institutions and governments under extreme stress. In most of the rest of the world, from Europe to South America, it has curled over. In the U.S., it is still cresting.... The global monetary wheel is grinding more slowly than I expected but also inexorably. U.S. stock market indicators continue to reflect the atmosphere of a Grand Supercycle top. - Bob Prechter

In short, it is time to pronounce an end to the so-called "Goldilocks" economy and recognize that the Fed has made what certainly qualifies as one of the great blunders in the history of central banking. In a desperate attempt to maintain the US financial and economic bubble, the Fed has only fomented greater excesses in credit creation and speculation and certainly has only exacerbated an already perilous situation.... As a nation, we have consumed way beyond our means, and our trade deficit has been allowed to explode, thus jeopardizing the long-term stability of our currency, financial markets and economic well-being. - David Tice

The Federal Reserve - which is supposed to guard the nation's financial integrity - has been reduced under Mr. Greenspan's regime to covering its bureaucratic rear by going on the record with warnings that can later be used for so many worthless I-told-you-so's. - John Crudele

We know exactly why Amazon.com has that market cap. My buddies and I talk about it all the time. Yahoo, Netscape, even Microsoft. What is it about them? Consider Netscape, an HTML formatter with a little TCP/IP socket programming stuck on the ass-end. Big deal. Amazon.com? A website with a database of books? What makes these trivial companies worth billions is that every retarded yuppie on the planet suddenly started clicking on web pages or fonting up spreadsheets. "My god" they squeal, "I's be a master of the universe, I better sink every cent of my 401(k) into these fundamental, world-altering, leading-edge firms". They don't realize how little there is under the hood. Conversely, the reason that the Y2K problem is still not addressed is the same mentally-deficient yuppies.... do not know what is under the hood of an industrial giant. Nor do they understand how much sweat went into building the enterprise systems code. They've never done it. They don't know. So Amazon.com looks like a powerhouse to them. They are completely clueless about what is hard and what is easy. - Cory Hamasaki

The market value of Microsoft's stock is now $425 billion, even though gross annual revenues are only $20 billion. My calculations further indicate that Microsoft, rather than being profitable, will probably have a net loss of $2 billion this year. For the quarter ending 9/30/98 the undisclosed compensation [paid to employees on stock options already exercised].... actually exceeded net income per an analysis of their 10Q SEC filing. Employees are clearly prepaying their own future wages in a massive pyramid scheme as cash received from employees in the form of the exercise price and taxes paid, in addition to cash from [Microsoft] selling put contracts [on its own stock], will probably finance more than half of Microsoft's operating expenses for 1999.... In addition to this misrepresentation of past earnings, future earnings are affected by the remaining liability, now more than $60 billion at Microsoft or 3 times gross revenues.... I have since spoken with several representatives from Microsoft and their response is that "everyone is doing it." - Bill Parrish

Starting the first week of the introduction of the Euro banks in Europe have experienced problems with transactions between banks. They agreed to keep silent, especially since the conversion of private accounts caused no problems. - news item

Inflation is an evil which exerts its baleful influence throughout society. Gold and silver were gifts of God, and, short of the labor required to obtain them, were ours free. They didn't have to be returned to the source, much less with interest! Inflation, on the other hand, is borrowed into existence from a privileged clique who, by the very nature of the process, enslave those who use it. Such a corrupt system may only be possible in a corrupt society. If so, they deserve each other. - Dr. Paul Hein

Democracy will last until the populace discover that they can vote themselves emoluments from the public treasury. - Thomas Macaulay

CLINTON QUOTES FOR THE MONTH

I have no doubt that he'd given false testimony under oath and that he has misled the American people.... There are indications that he did indeed obstruct justice.... The question is does this rise to the level of high crimes and misdemeanors. I say yes. No doubt about it in my mind. But the issue is should the president be removed. - Robert Byrd (D-West Virginia)

If it is not apparent that the rule of law is gone, read Byrd's own words. If it is not apparent that America has now been led into an abyss by Clinton, from which it can never extract itself, you are dead from the neck up. Clinton has immeasurably and irreparably injured this country, single-handedly. - Paul Milne

Here we have a president who is obviously guilty of a series of felonies, any one of which would place a mere commoner in peril of incarceration for as much as five years. Why do I say obviously? Because he was shown on videotape lying profusely to a grand jury, and the video was shown on nationwide TV. Clinton was caught as red-handed as any street hoodlum shown on a security video holding up a convenience store. A social/political system that reveals itself to be incapable of dealing with so blatant an offense committed by any public official, let alone the president, is broken. - Edward Zehr

....the next two years are going to be a real bitch, courtesy of a vindictive President who believes strongly in payback. - Doug Thompson

It is time to admit defeat. For the past six years I have been shouting that Bill Clinton is a wicked man, with past ties to organised crime and a tolerance for vicarious violence. I assumed that Americans would catch on to this, and that most would object. For though they are famously slow to anger, they are - or used to be - harsh in judgment. But the fat times have dulled the senses and absolved all sins.... the media are on the sidelines - or fraternising. The Washington Post has been caught feeding media intelligence to the White House Counsel's office. NBC Television is [was - /Nick] sitting on an interview with an Arkansas woman who was allegedly raped by Bill Clinton.... This is combustible stuff. It is also directly relevant to the impeachment trial, which stems from witness tampering in the [Paula Jones] case.... So the man caught red-handed in perjury, obstruction of justice and ungallantly smearing his lover as a demented stalker is hailed as the winner. The world knows that he is guilty, but he is the one enjoying a victory cigar. What a way to end the 20th century. - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

So we lurch on towards acquittal of a corrupt president whom everyone knows to be guilty. And what if it turns out that he has been a serial rapist? Juanita Broaddrick, a.k.a. Jane Doe #5, is not the only Jane Doe in Clinton's dossier. That is the main reason he was impeached by the House -- the undecided Republicans were shown evidence of Clinton's predatory behavior. Naturally our "free" press made sure that we are not allowed to see the same evidence and most of us remain blissfully unaware of its existence. If the Senate is to let him off the hook, the public must not be told that the president is a rapist. But what if they find out later? No doubt the media will provide them with a suitably mindless rationalization. After all, it's only about sex. - Edward Zehr

Clinton is a rapist. Juanita Broaddrick's horror story oozes credibility. Clinton is a congenital liar.... And there's little point in exploring the story further because Clinton is going to get away with the crime -- just as he has gotten away with so many others. There's no controlling legal authority, as long as people with as little character as the president himself occupy at least 34 seats in the U.S. Senate. That's the harsh reality of the world in which we live. So, too bad, Juanita. I guess you were right to keep your mouth shut all those years. And let that be a lesson to the rest of you women out there. Know your place. - Joseph Farah

We have no doubt that Bill Clinton raped Juanita Broaddrick in that Arkansas hotel room 21 years ago, just like we have no doubt that he raped 19-year-old Eileen Wellstone in England 30 years ago. There's no reason to believe Bill Clinton's denials. He is a pathological liar who has been caught, time and time again, in lie after lie.... This man is a sexual predator who puts his own sexual desires above his marriage, his duties as President and his oath of office. There are too many women out there who tell horrifying stories of sexual abuse at the hands of this man. So we have a message for....any.... idiot who tries to defend the criminal of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Take your rants and your raves and your attempts to silence witnesses and stick them right up your lying asses. Bill Clinton is a rapist. That's a fact you can no longer hide. And that stench you smell comes from the lying degenerate you choose to serve and defend. - Doug Thompson

NBC News Washington Bureau chief Tim Russert got sick to his stomach when he viewed the five-hour session between NBC News reporter Lisa Myers and Broaddrick. Russert told associates that Broaddrick's story left him speechless and upset him physically after he viewed raw tapes of the interview. - Matt Drudge

It was bad enough that Democrats essentially mortgaged their souls to save their man. Now they must confront the prospect that the liar and cheat they rescued is also a capital felon -- a rapist, for crying out loud. - Wlady Pleszczynski

Sooner or later, in spite of the bungled impeachment efforts by Republicans, the American public is going to have to face the fact that the President of the United States is a criminal.... When Juanita Broaddrick told her horrifying story of rape at the hands of then-attorney general Clinton in Arkansas in 1978, we saw yet another criminal side of our President -- a violent sexual deviate who leaves a beaten, bleeding woman lying on a bed in a hotel room.... [M]ore than a dozen women.... tell stories that are strikingly familiar to those of Broaddrick, [Paula] Jones and others. Yet the White House has not commented, or [has] denied, stories about sexual assaults at Oxford University, Yale, the University of Arkansas or elsewhere. Some, of course, will say that this is all part of the long-discredited "right wing conspiracy" to bring down Clinton. Yet those who charge him with these chilling sexual crimes are not right-wing zealots, but members of his own party -- a campaign worker in 1978, a legal secretary who worked for one of his ardent supporters that same year, a Democratic fundraiser in Washington, a volunteer in the White House. Bill Clinton was so busy assaulting his own supporters that he never had time to get around to his enemies. - Doug Thompson

Hillary wanted me to get the dirt on Bill to find out who he was fooling around with.... I came up with eight women he was involved with.... What really ticked her off was that one of them was an employee at the Rose Law Firm, where Hillary herself was a lawyer. - Ivan Duda [Little Rock private investigator]

She offered Clinton a ride home. And once he got her alone in her car, he grabbed this woman and assaulted her. He did his trademark thing; exposed himself, asked her to 'kiss it,' and pushed her head down into his lap. - Beverly Lambert [private investigator for Paula Jones' lawyers for the Jane Doe search, on the "young woman lawyer in Little Rock" described in Morris/Denton's Partners in Power]

I talked to Judy Stokes [who recalled that Elizabeth Ward Gracen had come to her in tears right after a 1983 sexual encounter with Clinton] for an hour and a half. At first, she was reluctant to burn her bridges with Liz. But I finally asked, 'Do you believe Clinton raped her?' She said, 'Absolutely. He forced her to have sex. What do you call that?' Stokes was totally convinced it was rape. - Beverly Lambert

I was escorted there [Bill Clinton's hotel room, Little Rock, 1979] by a state trooper. When I went in, he was sitting on a couch, wearing only an undershirt. He pointed at his penis and told me to suck it. I told him I didn't even do that for my boyfriend and he got mad, grabbed my head and shoved it into his lap. I pulled away from him and ran out of the room.... [My boyfriend] said that people who crossed the governor usually regretted it and that if I knew what was good for me I'd forget that it ever happened. I haven't forgotten it. You don't forget crude men like that. - Carolyn Moffet [maiden name]

[President Clinton].... emotionally abused Monica and discarded her. - Linda Tripp

Also on the spike is the story of the Canadian blood scandal, in which the blood of Arkansas prison inmates, tainted with HIV and hepatitis C was sold to unsuspecting Canadian hospitals under the state regime of then Governor Clinton. I have noticed that journalists who appear on C-SPAN's Washington forum invariably tell concerned callers that they have never heard of this story. Rather remarkable in view of the fact that it has been getting big play in the Canadian press since last fall. Is American journalism really that provincial, or do American journalists simply find it more convenient to lie than to answer awkward questions? - Edward Zehr

As a once proud alumnus, I am appalled and sickened by the misconduct of the Justice Department during the Clinton administration. - Larry Klayman [Judicial Watch chairman]

He [McDougal] told me to write down this: "'Write down that Clinton did not personally urge David Hale to lend Susan 'something like $100,000' or more 'in federal funds on fraudulent terms.'" This was the money he used to buy the land in the name of Whitewater Development Corp. I don't know what he said when he testified in court, but he seemed extremely interested in exonerating Mr. Clinton. It sounded to me like he was telling the truth that Clinton had nothing to do with urging David Hale to lend this money [to Susan McDougal]. He said that he wanted that to come out.... - Thomas J. Lowe [inmate in a solitary-confinement cell next to James McDougal's when he died]

North Korea should never have been allowed to develop the capability to hit the US with nuclear, chemical, or biological warheads. Clinton has committed a major, unforgivable dereliction of duty by exposing the US to this danger. If [I] could warn of the threat five years ago, the White House and CIA were obviously equally aware of it. They hid from the problem. True to style, President Clinton chose empty posturing and bribery rather than decisive action. North Korea's nuclear capability must be destroyed. Each day we delay, means it will be more difficult and dangerous to confront Pyongyang when the time inevitably comes. - Eric Margolis

Remember that $300,000 fine that was assessed against Newt Gingrich? Well, it turns out that the IRS has ruled he didn't do anything wrong. Will he get the three hundred thou back? Is the Pope a Presbyterian? Newt is a conservative Republican, and you know how mean-spirited and vindictive they can be. Serves him right. What's that? Rule of law? Never heard of it. - Edward Zehr

Aldous Huxley had it right in Brave New World: News and politics have become nothing more than entertainment, leaving our opinions, our culture, and our politics at the mercy of those who know how to control what we see and hear and, ultimately, think. - R. H. Wheatley

In Nazi Germany it was necessary to have a shortwave receiver in order to know what was going on. In the fin-de-siecle USA it takes a modem [for Internet access]. - Edward Zehr

The wonderful thing about America, I have come to discover of recent, is that truth is available; it is merely harder to discern than most Americans think it is. Here and there the cover-up mask slips a bit, a little bit of truth leaks out. Once you understand what you're looking for, it becomes easier and easier to spot. I wasn't interested initially in either the crash of TWA Flight 800 or in the death of White House lawyer Vince Foster. But, it takes so little effort to confirm the veracity of the "kooks'" side of things, even years after the fact. With good sense, a basic liberal arts education, a smattering of intelligence, a nodding acquaintance with logic and argumentation theory, and a refusal to be intimidated by media scare words and ridicule, truth can be determined. - Lila Hoffman-Thome

Y2K QUOTES FOR THE MONTH

As a Cobol programmer fixing code for Y2K compliance for a large oil trading firm.... I can assure you that most large companies are way behind schedule, including my own. Regrettably, these very same companies tell the general public everything is OK and not to worry when they know they have no chance of making the deadline.... The situation is really quite desperate and most code programmers are indeed stocking up on food. Most people have no idea how severe and long-lasting the disruptions will be. Those who do not prepare may possibly die as a result of Y2K. - Michael Taylor

Based on the information we have at this time, we do not expect major national disruptions in critical services. There is no indication that the Y2K problem will cause national failures in basic infrastructures such as electric power, telecommunications, banking, and transportation. - John Koskinen [federal Y2K czar]

Will we suffer failures, glitches, bankruptcies etc. etc. because of Y2K? Of course we will... but will the banking system collapse? NO. Will we lose telecommunications around the world? NO. Will we suffer blackouts right across America for weeks at a time? NO. How can I say that? Because these organizations have solved enough of the problems to avoid these scenarios. The worst case scenarios have been avoided. In that sense and perhaps that sense alone, Y2K has been solved.... I'd say that the overall human reaction now poses a greater risk to society than do the remaining Y2K problems. - Peter de Jager

Nothing's going to happen. At least, nothing catastrophic. The chances for major failure in critical computer systems is very small. And chances of failure of any kind is only 2.5 percent. - Tom Oleson [Y2K Research Director at International Data Corp.]

Recent weeks have seen all manner of reassurances from government officials and corporate trade associations. All will be well because so much has been finished and so much is on schedule that life and the economy will continue as before -- aside from brief disturbances in some U.S. localities. We are being told that what has been, is what will be. Except of course, for small and medium-sized U.S. enterprises, small and medium-sized U.S. counties, towns, school districts, and special purpose districts; and most foreign countries -- few of which are Y2K-ready and many of which are the suppliers and the distributors of the goods and services essential to large corporations and government agencies, and who employ millions. - Victor Porlier

Those of us in the Year 2000 industry feel that the government has been fabricating the truth for so long about its Year 2000 efforts, that it is now too late to take meaningful action that could possibly ensure success. When you talk to the people responsible for actually working on the systems, i.e. the programmers and analysts in the various agencies who are plugging through the code and making the changes, they, more often than not, give very pessimistic assessments of their agencies' ability to make it on time.... However, as you move up the chain of command, the outlook becomes more optimistic, until as you near the top, there appears to be no problem. - Michael P. Harden [of Century Technology Services]

I don't understand how the [banking] authorities can give `satisfactory' Y2K compliance ratings to institutions that have apparently missed a critical compliance deadline [December 31, 1998].... I personally believe the authorities are either using outdated information in their pronouncements or simply sugar-coating the truth. - Martin Weiss [chairman, Weiss Ratings, Inc.]

In general, the news is supposed to report what happens rather than interpret and analyze. What's happened is some droolers in DeeCee have been wakened from their slumber, wha-ha? It's 1999 and no work has been done on the DeeCee systems (not that anyone else is in much better shape, did I mention banks such as BankAmerica? No, I didn't and I don't know some code-heads in San Francisco who report that the BankAmerica is in horrible shape. And anyway, if I did, this would just be a clueless Internet rumor, so ignore this). ....Please, it's worse than I've been saying.... This is not going to be fixed by the Feds. They tried. The agencies with some smarts have all bailed out of DeeCee. You'll find them in the burbs, Maryland or Virginia. Some have tried to make a break for West Virginia too. Here are a few, National Science Foundation, Defense Logistics Agency, Defense Communications Agency, National Bureau of Standards (now NIST), National Institute of Health, NEE-MA, all safely outside of DeeCee. - Cory Hamasaki

The geekvine in DeeCee says that there are parts of the military and government that haven't started assessment yet. - Cory Hamasaki

I heard from geeks at Social Security that when Bill made the "Social Security is Done" speech, they all gave each other dumb looks. "What's he talking about?" - Cory Hamasaki

The 3083 [computer, used by the FAA for air-traffic control] is a monadic variant of the 3081. 3083s wheeze out about 5 S/370 MIPS, in contrast to the incredible 2+ MIPS from my deskside S/370. The 3083 is a wonder, it's a wonder that the thing runs at all. 3-phase power, cooled by chilled water circulating through TCMs (Thermal Conduction Modules). The working fluid within the TCM is pressurized helium. Block multiplexor channels, no ESCON, XA or S/370. Fans, pumps, things that buzz and moan.... The public statement was that IBM suspected a Y2K problem in some of the support logic, maybe the service processor, maybe an embedded that controls the internal plumbing.... The operating systems of that era had multiple Y2K problems, SVC-11, VSAM, the compilers.... Nothing that the FAA (Jane Gravy-train, Ray so-Long) has said gives me any confidence in their ability to identify and fix the problem, or manage the renovation, whatever "manage" means. Does it mean saying loudly, "Here's the mission statement, the planes will fly"? Last year, they said they'd be replacing the 3083s with G3s, which are early-model 9672s, junkers by 1999 standards. The G3 is about as powerful as a PeeCee file server with a couple Pentium IIs.... You non-geeks out there, you think the X-files is a woooOOOooo weird-ass story. That's nothing compared to the FAA and IBM, the 3083 and the G3, Ray "I'm a PhD from the school of hard knocks" Long, mixed in there are some retired IBM screwdriver-geeks who do microcode. Their motto, "we program with solder". On this idiotic kluge of cluelessness, self-delusion, pomposity detonating, rests the air transport system of the civilized world. - Cory Hamasaki

A close to home example: My spouse works for the FAA doing computer support. Spouse's boss told upper management that their department was compliant when in fact only some parts of the system were compliant. (Evidently, boss thought it okay to lie because "the rest of the system would be ready on time.") On time and government in the same sentence - isn't that a contradiction in terms? Spouse would lose job if this were known. Spouse did informal survey yesterday of four techies. Two said nothing's gonna happen, one said, 'wife always has 6 months of food stored' and one (the y2k rep for his department) says he's taking lots of $ out of the bank and converting stocks to cash. - anonymous Internet post

In a world where companies that sell browsers, run search engines and, Lord help us, sell books on the Internet, have valuations in the billions of dollars, it's hard to understand the importance of legacy code. Get over it, people; the world does not run on eBay, it runs on legacy iron, 50,000 IBM-style mainframes, 500,000 AS/400s, 100,000 S/3xs, and who knows how many VAXen, PDP-11's, and DGs.... It's started to unravel, time has run out, management is babbling like crazed loons, tonight I heard about another deathmarch. All weekends and holidays are canceled for the rest of the year. - Cory Hamasaki

We have done some quite scientific surveys of our supply base and Asia is statistically way, way behind in terms of their preparations for Y2K.... People are talking about stockpiling cash, water and canned goods. Given what I and everybody else in the computer industry knows about Asia, it might not be a bad idea to stockpile some computers for the next millennium. - Scott McNealy [CEO of Sun Microsystems]

My husband, who works for a small computer services company, got 16 phone calls last Friday alone, from local companies with Jo Anne Effect problems, all of them trying to close out January. They were not current clients.... He did a y2k program on January 28th for the local PC users group and talked about the Jo Anne Effect [named after Jo Anne Slaven, who first recognized that accounting systems would have difficulties up to 32 days before the beginning of a FY 2000], among other things. In the audience were members of an accounting group who have been getting frantic phone calls from businesses who can't close their books. The accountants are telling these people to call Jon, rather than dealing with it themselves.... Jon gave them a temporary fix, which was mainly to NOT forecast a year ahead into 2000 for now, and then to upgrade their accounting packages as soon as possible. - Jocelyne Slough

I am personally involved in Y2K at our plant that manufactures high-tech prototype and production printed circuit boards. We are experiencing a 95% failure rate in the ongoing testing of our PCs and proprietary computer-controlled process equipment. All the hardware was given a Year 2000 date rollover test and the vast majority failed. We also have hundreds of embedded processors that can't be tested and we will have to result to FOF (fix-on-failure) or letters of compliance from vendors and suppliers, which are always suspect. I can't believe the denial I'm seeing in the face of this wholesale failure of our systems. - programmer, anonymous out of necessity

Fix on Failure cannot work. If this were a possible option, you could simply take the system to a recover site, run it in the future with a few test records, watch for the failures, and in a few hours or days, completely repair the system. The reason that remediation and testing has been scheduled for months and years is that it really, really does take that long to find and fix the problems. When the rollover occurs, the systems that fail will take months or years to repair. The question is, what happens to society and civilization when the large complex systems that run everything no longer operate? - Cory Hamasaki

I saw and heard nothing but excusers {sic} ....in chorus from corporate moronic minions I suffered under/through for four, major scale, IT Y2K projects from February 1997-December 1998. It was all a good, conscientious person of 33 years experience could stand. Internal cover-ups and public denials within corporate walls had become daily routine. Pollyannas have never seen -- and probably never will see - [this] through the Y2K rose colored glasses.... Self-retirement was the only honorable and timely option open for me. I did it! - Robert Mangus

I am a partner in a software development company that is generating Y2K-compliant software. But we can't market our software because insurance companies refuse to insure software companies because of the "risk" of Y2K. Our government clients will not do business with us unless we have insurance. They need our software, we can't deliver it to them even though we have it prepared and ready to replace their current systems. Go figure. Our screwed-up society is what is going to bring us down... not programmers or technology. Our own decisions to cover our asses are causing problems. My company is here to help, and we can't. Insurance companies won't let us. In this regard, insurance companies are just as guilty as the public making rushes on the bank. ....I made a decision today after careful thought to my recent experience with insurance companies - I got an appointment at my bank to close my saving account.. - Ken Boettger

Just today, I was killing a half hour with a non-geek buddy. He works for a local publishing house and knowing my fixation with Y2K (and babes, donuts, custard pies, fast women and sexy cars, edged weapons, TSO), showed me an internal memo from his employer. They began their Y2K assessment in September 1998 and will be starting their remediation real soon now. The memo detailed several problems and gave optimistic completion dates of late this summer. Please, no names, but they are a nationally known firm. I've seen their mainframe. This confirmed my belief that the enterprise systems are in bad shape. This firm is heading for a disaster.... We (the enterprise systems gear-heads) understand Y2K fairly well. We know that the work hasn't been done, cannot be completed in the time remaining, and cannot be fixed after failure. It will take months or years to do that. The open questions are, how fast will the fall be, when will it start, how far will we fall, and how long will the recovery take. The details are unknowable. What we call non-computable. - Cory Hamasaki

USAA is on my short list of probably-will-make-its, USAA, BankBoston, a Fortune 500 financial company near my office, Hawaiian Electric, an un-named NYC mega-bank, Fidelity Investments, a hotel management company (I like their chicken). I have back-channel, geekvine info on these firms and guess, based on their level of activity and milestones reached, that they will make it. Unfortunately, every time I run my keyboard, someone drops me a confidential e-mail that things are not going all that well in their specific area. USAA built the first S/390 Time Machine. They send out regular Y2K status info, much like BankBoston and Fidelity Investments. Those three firms do much to instill confidence. The geekvine says that other Fortune 500s are hopelessly snarled in wishful thinking, mission statement meetings, business as usual. If one of the gang of three, USAA, BankBoston, Fidelity Investments, announces that they are 100% complete, tested, in production, heavy duty contingencies in place (one of them is stockpiling diesel to run their systems, hardening their critical facilities....), I will believe that they are done. However, all three have reported for years that they have been pressing hard, and USAA invented the concept of the Time Machine. 11 months to go. One of them will make the announcement any day now. Please. Any day now. When that happens, we can expect the other corporations to reach in finish line in roughly the order that they joined the race. Oopsie, that might be in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004. - Cory Hamasaki

PSE&G, the largest power utility in New Jersey, had only 15% of their systems repaired as of the end of December, and it took them a year to do that. At this rate, their systems won't be compliant until 2004. A change in approach is absolutely necessary for.... agencies finding themselves in this position.... They can't believe that with all the time invested, the manpower expended, and the finances consumed, that they are not going to be ready by January 1st. Despite mounting evidence of impending failure, they are holding fast to their original course of action. - Tamara Orbegozo [CEO of Year 2000 Specialists]

I expect to see some [power distribution] problems on 1/1/2000; even some that may be of a magnitude to impact system reliability in some isolated areas. These will primarily come from problem areas that no one anticipated in advance. Over the next 15 days, I'm postulating that the number of Y2k problems will increase, at first linearly, and toward the middle of January, exponentially, because of a combination of equipment failures and bad data propagating through systems (large, complex embedded and otherwise). Failures of complex systems are never linear in nature.... I believe that some level of sporadic service disruptions will continue through the Year 2000 because of the Y2k issue. - Rick Cowles

The point is that as more and more systems fail completely, in the sense of requiring the long term fix of actual remediation (e.g. the unemployment systems), the failures themselves will consume more and more of the increasingly scarce resources available to deal with the failures and the ongoing process of Y2K itself. These resources include programmers, temporary manual workers and money. I am convinced that at some point the rate of failures will be so high that there will not be enough resources to deal with the problems. At this point the web will collapse and so will the structure of society. I think it entirely possible that this will occur this year, before the rollover itself. Not because the rate of failures will be extremely high, but rather through the concomitant effect of a collapse of the global economy, a process which I believe is already underway. When the economy tanks, there won't be enough cash available to finish the ongoing remediation projects and they will add to the huge number of systems which will fail after the rollover. If it were just Y2K I would still be concerned, but not quite so much. But "it's the economy, stupid!" (nothing personal). The two together will feed on each other -- the economic collapse will cause Y2K failures to be worse and the Y2K failures will make an economic recovery impossible, leading eventually to the devolutionary spiral I have predicted. In many ways I am more concerned about the economy, which I see as in much worse shape than in 1929, just before the Great Depression. And this time I see no way out. - Moshe Shulman

The seeds are now being sown to directly blame the coming (potential) Y2K failures on those who have prepared - the cry now in the mass media is about the threat from hoarding and bank runs CAUSED by the ones who have prepared for trouble. - Robert A. Cook

I've got to say that as a Y2K project director who speaks with some of the Y2K managers in other Fortune 500 companies, a lot of these guys aren't coders - they're managers getting drift/spin from their managers beneath them.... There's a big disconnect called CYA. The grunts and the middle managers aren't exactly doing up-fronts with these guys.... Overarching the whole thing is that almost to a person, you hear, "We're not so much concerned about our own stuff - we're worried about our trading partners." I think this sets up the following scenario, which is already widely practiced. It's called finger-pointing. "Uh, I'm not sure why the computers are down, but we're looking into it. It's probably data we got from XYZ corporation yesterday. We're looking into it." - "Brett" (Internet post)

I believe that Y2K will be equivalent to throwing a million monkey wrenches into the "engine" of the global economy, and that it will lead to a depression similar in severity and duration to the Great Depression.... I believe it will wipe out a great deal of wealth in the stock market.... Large companies won't finish their Y2K projects; even if they manage to finish their mission-critical projects.... Several surveys in recent months have confirmed that nearly 75% of the small businesses around the world have not yet carried out any Y2K planning or remediation; even more amazing, 40-50% don't plan to do anything until something breaks on January 1, 2000.... Those who have warned about Y2K alarmists causing bank runs will usually admit that the entire fractional reserve banking system relies on the confidence of depositors: if all of us lose confidence in the banks, and if we all demand to withdraw our money, then the banks collapse. - Ed Yourdon

On February 2 [1999], the U.S. Mint, the largest producer of gold and silver coins, announced gold coin rationing. In the first six months of 1998, the Mint sold 96,000 ounces of gold coins a month, mostly one ounce eagles. In the second six months, it averaged 210,000 ounces. In January, 1999, it sold 268,000 ounces. That was the limit. The Mint began allocating coins to the wholesalers. Retail coin dealers are now having to ration coins to buyers: so many per week. - Gary North

The oldest computer in the world destined to suffer from the millennium bug resides in a museum in Liverpool, England - as a Renaissance artifact. The nearly 400-year-old instrument, which predicts the position of the planets, will stop working at the dawn of the 21st century.... An unknown craftsman in 1600 built the equatorium, which operates through a system of rotating discs and arms, to calculate the future positions of the sun, the moon, other planets, and eclipses. But the last date the creator inscribed was in 1999. - news item

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK

Clearly, being in mutual funds which inversely mirror the weighted indexes (as I am in my non retirement funds) has been the wrong place to be. Sadly, there are not many options available to go short in this bear market of outside-the-indexes stocks (Rydex Arktos may be the best) using mutual funds. How frustrating, to see 55% of stocks going down, and not to have a convenient vehicle to profit from it!

Why should big-cap stocks so greatly outperform? I attribute it to the Federal Reserve's 1997 and 1998 bailouts, which were implemented by buying index futures. Regardless of what the average stock does, the money managers know that if stocks run into trouble to the point where they "require" a Fed bailout, the bailout implemented will "rescue" the indexes, therefore being in stocks which figure heavily in the makeup of the indexes is the safest place to be. Thus, this government subsidy (moral hazard, anyone?) of those stocks sucks even more money into them and inflates their values even more.

This does not, in my opinion, mean that the big-cap stocks are immune to decline.... only that they will be the last to go, when a future Fed bailout fails, or when stocks crash so quickly a bailout attempt cannot be mounted. This subsidy has also led to the current unbelievable discrepancy between the health of the overall market (reflected by technical indicators such as the advance/decline line) and the stocks in the indexes - unbelievable, but it's there, so it must be believed.

This distortion in the market (different levels of moral hazard for different stocks) means that when the meltdown finally comes, it could arrive with a ferocity beyond your wildest imagination. Stocks could plummet 4000 Dow points overnight, with the market closed, then soar 3000 points the next day (circuit breakers permitting) as the Fed manipulates, then crash again if the intervention fails.

As for timing, it's time to turn off the countdown clock for the time being. Last month I postulated that if (the big-cap) stocks continued to decline, we could see the meltdown in the last week of February. Instead, they have entered a trading range between Dow 9100 and 9600, and as I write this we are not yet assured of having made a final top, nor of being sufficiently below the January top to count weeks. Nevertheless, my feeling is that we are only weeks, or a very few months, away from Meltdown Day, rather than many months away, and I anticipate restarting that countdown-clock count no later than early Spring.

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

COMMENT on "Timer's Trend": We're still on the SELL signal from January 12. Further new highs in the popular averages are possible.... as is a meltdown with virtually no warning. This is a mania..... watch the "computer warmline".... treat all sell signals with the greatest respect. And if you think this is a word-for-word rerun of last month's comment, you're right.... nothing has changed (yet).

______________________________  TIMER'S TREND  _________________________________
Mon 12 Oct 98        .# I  .       | 8001.47  |~.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 13 Oct 98     #  .  I  .       | 7938.14  | .  -    *
Wed 14 Oct 98        #  I  .       | 7968.78  | . -           *
Thu 15 Oct 98        .  |# .       | 8299.36  |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 16 Oct 98        .  | #.       | 8416.76  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 19 Oct 98        .  | #.       | 8466.45  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 20 Oct 98        .  |  #       | 8505.85  |+.                          *
Wed 21 Oct 98        . #|  .      }| 8519.23  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 22 Oct 98        .  |# .       | 8533.14  |+.                       *
Fri 23 Oct 98        .# |  .       | 8452.29  + .      *
Mon 26 Oct 98        .  |# .       | 8432.21  +~.~~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 27 Oct 98        .  #  .       | 8366.04  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Wed 28 Oct 98        .  |# .       | 8371.97  + .      *
Thu 29 Oct 98        .  |  #       | 8495.03  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 30 Oct 98        .  |  #       | 8592.10  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  2 Nov 98        .  |  . #     | 8706.15  |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue  3 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 8706.15  | .+                  *
Wed  4 Nov 98        .  |  .  #    | 8783.14  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu  5 Nov 98        .  |  .#      | 8915.47  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri  6 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 8975.46  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  9 Nov 98        .  #  .       | 8897.96  | .+   *
Tue 10 Nov 98        .  #  .       | 8863.98  *~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 11 Nov 98        .  |# .       | 8823.82  |*.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 12 Nov 98        .  |# .       | 8829.74  |+.       *
Fri 13 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 8919.59  |+.                         *
Mon 16 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 9011.25  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 17 Nov 98        .  | #.       | 8986.28  | +              *
Wed 18 Nov 98        .  | #.       | 9041.11  | +                         *
Thu 19 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 9056.05  | +                            *
Fri 20 Nov 98        .  |  . #     | 9159.55  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 23 Nov 98        .  |  . #     | 9374.27  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 24 Nov 98        .  | #.       | 9301.15  | .+    *
Wed 25 Nov 98        .  |  #       | 9314.28  | .+       *
Fri 27 Nov 98        .  |  .#      | 9333.08  | .+           *
Mon 30 Nov 98    *   .  #  .       | 9116.55  |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue  1 Dec 98        .  |# .       | 9133.54  |+.         *
Wed  2 Dec 98        .  #  .       | 9064.54* |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu  3 Dec 98     *  . #I  .       |          +.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri  4 Dec 98        .  |  . #     | 9016.14  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  7 Dec 98        .  |  #       | 9070.47  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue  8 Dec 98        .  |# .       | 9027.98  |+.           *
Wed  9 Dec 98        .  | #.       | 9009.19  | +       *
Thu 10 Dec 98        .* I  .       | 8841.58  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 11 Dec 98        #  I  .      {| 8821.76  +~.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 14 Dec 98     #  .  I  . *     | 8695.60  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 15 Dec 98        . #I  .       | 8823.30  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 16 Dec 98        . #I  .       | 8790.60  | .-
Thu 17 Dec 98        .  I# .       | 8875.82  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 18 Dec 98        .  I# .       | 8903.63  | -                        *
Mon 21 Dec 98        .  I  #       | 8988.85  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 22 Dec 98        . #I  .       | 9044.46  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 23 Dec 98        .  I  .#      | 9202.03  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 24 Dec 98        .  I  .#      | 9217.99  | +                      *
Mon 28 Dec 98        .  I# .       | 9226.75  | +                       *
Tue 29 Dec 98        .  |  #      }| 9320.98  |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 30 Dec 98        .  | #.       | 9274.64  | +          *
Thu 31 Dec 98        .  |  .  #    | 9181.43  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon  4 Jan 99        .  |  #       | 9184.27  | .+     *
Tue  5 Jan 99        .  |  . #     | 9311.19  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed  6 Jan 99        .  |  .   #   | 9544.97  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu  7 Jan 99        .  |# .       | 9537.76  | . +                *
Fri  8 Jan 99        .  |  .#      | 9643.32  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 11 Jan 99        .  #  .       | 9619.89  | .+              *
Tue 12 Jan 99        .# I  .      {| 9474.68  |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Wed 13 Jan 99      # .  I  .  *    | 9349.56  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Thu 14 Jan 99      # .  I  .       | 9120.93  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Fri 15 Jan 99        .  I  . #     | 9340.55  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 19 Jan 99        .  I #.       | 9355.22  |-.                     *
Wed 20 Jan 99        .  I #.       | 9335.91  |-.                 *
Thu 21 Jan 99        .# I  .       | 9264.08  + .    *
Fri 22 Jan 99        #  I  .       | 9120.67  +.~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 25 Jan 99        .  &  .       | 9203.32  |-.                     *
Tue 26 Jan 99        .  &  .       | 9234.58  |-.                           *
Wed 27 Jan 99        .# I  .       | 9200.23  | -                    *
Thu 28 Jan 99        .  &  .       | 9281.33  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 29 Jan 99        .  I# .       | 9358.83  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  1 Feb 99        .  I# .       | 9345.70  + .                 *
Tue  2 Feb 99        #  I  .       | 9274.12  |-.   *
Wed  3 Feb 99        .  I# .       | 9366.81  + .                     *
Thu  4 Feb 99        #  I  .       | 9304.50  |-.         *
Fri  5 Feb 99        #  I  .       | 9304.24  | -         *
Mon  8 Feb 99        #  I  .       | 9291.11  | .-     *
Tue  9 Feb 99     #  .  I  .       | 9133.03  |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~    
Wed 10 Feb 99        #  I  .       | 9177.31  | . -            *
Thu 11 Fab 99        .# I  .       | 9363.46  |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 12 Feb 99    #   .  I  .       | 9274.89  |~.~~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 16 Feb 99        .# I  .       | 9297.03  | . -        *
Wed 17 Feb 99     #  .  I  .       | 9195.47  |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Thu 18 Feb 99        .# I  .       | 9298.63  | . -                        *
Fri 19 Feb 99        .# I  .       | 9339.95  |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 22 Feb 99        .  I #.       | 9552.68  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 23 Feb 99        .# I  .       | 9544.42  | -                  *
Wed 24 Feb 99        .# I  .       | 9399.67  |~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Thu 25 Feb 99      # .  I  .       | 9366.34  |~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
======================================================================== 

NEXT ISSUE - will appear about March 31.     /Nick Chase