The Contrarian's View

Vol. XIII, #1, July 27, 1998

The Contrarian's View is published 11 times per year on a mostly-irregular schedule, and the views expressed are those of the author and editor, Nick Chase. Because nobody can predict the future, results of past suggestions or recommendations are no guarantee of future results. Material in this publication may be freely quoted provided proper attribution is given to its source. Subscription rate: Free on the Internet through the World-Wide Web service at Assumption College. Using your favorite Web-browsing program, Open URL http://nick.assumption.edu. Mailed paper subscriptions, one year for $39 to The Contrarian's View, 132 Moreland Street, Worcester, Massachusetts 01609. There is a limit of 50 paid subscribers at one time; please check for availability before sending any money. Sorry, Visa and Mastercard are not available. Overseas subscription rate, U.S. $54. Unsolicited material sent to us by UPS or by courier other than the postal service is refused and returned to sender! Phone: (508) 757-2881

ASSESSING Y2K

Why am I concerned about Y2K? Because my own computer programming experience, and my contacts within the industry tell me that it is a serious problem. By itself, I think Y2K could trigger a bad recession in the U.S., similar to the 1974-75 recession. But when you take into consideration the psychological shift from the current public mood of economic near-euphoria and stock-market mania that Y2K will trigger, plus the fact that the rest of the world is a few months to several years behind the U.S. in eradicating the Y2K bug from its systems, we could see the onset of a worldwide depression.

The most disturbing thing I've seen about Y2K is the enormous discrepancy between what the programmers who are actually fixing the computer systems are saying about what will happen in 2000, and what upper levels of management and government officials are saying about it. The managers and officials say the systems will, for the most be part, be fixed in time. The programmers are saying, no way.... there isn't enough time left, nor are there enough programmers with the right experience, to fix all the systems. Management should decide which of its computers are critical to staying in business, fix those, and forget the rest, the programmers say.

More than one-third of the experienced large-systems programmers surveyed by the Washington, DC Y2K Group expect at least a severe recession because of Y2K; a quarter of them expect at least some loss of the nation's infrastructure, political crises and civil disturbances. One-tenth expect a depression (minimum case) to the collapse of Western civilization as we know it.

Now, one could dismiss the programmers' views as typical of what one would expect from a group of computer nerds; somewhat antisocial, with libertarian tendencies, and vastly overrating their own importance to their organizations. But from what I know of corporate and government bureaucracies, and how much effort it can take to get them to acknowledge and respond to a crisis, my vote goes to the programmers: I think they see the problems clearly, but the word just isn't getting to the top quickly enough, because to admit failure in any degree makes the in-between levels of managers look bad.

In assessing the impact of Y2K, I feel that most important is to try to figure out if the lights will stay on. If January 1, 2000 arrived tomorrow, the nation's electric power grid would shut down and be down for days, possibly for weeks. The good news is, the utilities still have 18 months to work on the problem, the number of systems likely to fail in power-generating plants and in the grid is fairly small, and nuclear energy plants, which provide 40% of our power here in the Northeast, are so old that most of their safety systems are analog, not digital, and no dates are stored in them. The bad news is, utilities' managements have been extremely laggard in recognizing their Y2K problems, no nuclear power plant is currently certified as Y2K-safe and at least 15% are still likely to be uncertified by 2000, and experts estimate that 15% to 20% of non-nuclear plants will not be fixed in time and will fail in 2000. This would mean we enter the new year 2000 with 72% or less of our normally-available electric power.

In the one power-plant Y2K test run to date, by Hawaiian Electric, the power stayed on when the clocks were advanced, but the electricity generated was wildly fluctuating in frequency and voltage. Had it been delivered to the public it would have damaged sensitive electronic equipment. Keep your fingers crossed as we enter the next century; if the lights stay on, Y2K will be a grossly inconvenient experience, but is unlikely to be life threatening for most people.

After electricity come the banks, transportation (particularly airlines) and public health and safety as problem areas. The handout I've passed out has several months' worth of Y2K quotes extracted from my newsletter, The Contrarian's View, where I keep tabs on Y2K for the benefit of my subscribers. There is no particular "point of view" in these quotes; you will find comments from people who think Y2K is a consultants' scam, to dire projections from survivalist nut-cases holed up in the mountains with their food and ammo. Use them to make your own assessment of the seriousness of Y2K. If you conclude, as I have, that it's a serious problem, spread the word; almost any preparation is preferable to being taken completely by surprise.

Whatever you do, don't rely exclusively on the mainstream media to keep you apprised of developments. There's a saying in the press - "If it bleeds, it reads". Well, Y2K isn't "sexy", and articles written about it tend to be excellent substitutes for sleeping pills. Also, most reporters don't know enough about computers to understand the implications: Y2K is a systemic problem; it is not just a problem of individual computers failing but of our dependence on the integration of computers into our way of life that puts us at risk. If one part of the system fails, it drags down the rest.

If you see any story, anywhere, that mentions "planes falling from the sky", you will know in advance that the reporter is totally clueless. No responsible Y2K spokesperson anywhere has said that planes will fall from the sky because of Y2K (they just won't get off the ground in the first place). This myth is propagated by the press as an attention-grabber to help sell its product.

QUOTES FOR THE MONTH

The Global Financial Index of British stocks, which uses the Financial Times-Actuaries base of April 10, 1962 = 100, recorded a high of 155.61 during the South Sea Bubble in June 1720. It wasn't until July 1968 that the.... index finally broke through the old high of 1720. In other words, someone who had bought stocks at the top of the South Sea Bubble would have had to wait 250 years to get their principal back and not suffer a capital loss. Of course, dividends, not capital gains, would have returned shareholders' investment long before 1968, but this should remind investors that stocks do not always go up. - Bryan Taylor II

In the case of the US, we are seeing stock market speculation, some real estate speculation and a terrific boom in mergers and acquisitions not benefiting efficiency but benefiting those bringing it off - plus there's an explosion of subsidiary financial operations, including in particular junk bonds. When you see reference to a new paradigm, you should always, under all circumstances, take cover. Because ever since the great tulipmania in 1637, speculation has always been covered by a new paradigm. There was never a paradigm so new and so wonderful as the one that covered John Law and the South Sea Bubble- until the day of disaster. - John Kenneth Galbraith [June 17, 1998]

Greenspan has been doing admirably what the Federal Reserve has always done - which is nothing.... There should have been far more warning about the speculative splurge on Wall Street and the extent of citizen participation. That was the mistake that the Federal Reserve made in the Twenties, and the mistake that it has made again now.... One thing is wonderfully clear - when trouble comes on Wall Street, the blame will all be passed to Indonesia, Malaysia and maybe Japan. Wall Street insanity.... now has a perfect cover. - John Kenneth Galbraith [June 17, 1998]

The US stock market is now driven by "bubble dynamics". Long run prospective returns no longer govern the formation of investor expectations of future returns to stocks. Rather, investor expectations formation has become almost completely backward-looking or "adaptive": it is the past rate of stock price appreciation that determines expected future returns. We have witnessed a one-time move in stock valuations from historical lows in 1980-1982 amid adverse economic conditions to record valuations amid unusually benign economic conditions. This one-time rise in valuation has created a rate of appreciation in stock prices that vastly exceeds trend. Investors with adaptive expectations of stock price performance assume past 1982-1998 returns will go on forever. Surveys show that 80% of US households expect 14% or higher returns to stocks forever. In fact, at today's lofty stock valuations, trend returns must approximate the growth in nominal GDP (4.5%) plus the dividend yield for an overall trend return of only 6%. Today's stock valuations reflect unrealistic expected returns which in the end will not be validated. Eventually, when disappointed, expected returns will erode, which will reduce warranted valuations and the demands for stocks. Then the positive feedback loop of bubble dynamics will go into reverse, drawing stock prices to and below their long-run equilibrium. - Frank Veneroso

Would we be seeing the speculative risks and leverage today if not for an implied guarantee that the Federal Reserve will quickly react as the "lender-of-last-resort" and open the monetary floodgates in the event of a '87 scenario? ....we suspect that if Wall Street's inevitable end to its bubble unfolds too quickly, the Fed will have as little control of the situation as the Central Bank of Japan had in the early '90s. - Jim Stack

In everything from mortgage refinancing to graduates opting not to prepay college loans, consumers are using debt to divert funds into Wall Street. And whether or not it's money they can afford to lose, there will be a big psychological impact when it evaporates. That's why the NEXT recession will start on Wall Street instead of Main Street. - Jim Stack

I'm a trustee for a medium-sized company, and my fellow trustees have very little desire to adopt, or even offer to the 401(k) participants anything resembling a defensive choice of funds, i.e., T-bills, Ursa, currency. In fact, the word "aggressive" is used frequently and casually, as if it were the inevitable choice. - "KM" (Internet post)

There are more than hints today of a crash coming in the Western markets, if you know what generally preceded history's crashes. Yes, I am stubborn. I was stubborn in the four years after our 1978 book that predicted a super-bull market, and I'm just as stubborn now that the super-bull market is ending.... if the Dow is not in triple digits by 2004, I will say I blew it. - Bob Prechter

One condition the IMF has imposed across Asia is for the recipient country to establish an "independent" central bank, i.e., one independent of local political control, and therefore at liberty to harmonize monetary policy with the Federal Reserve.... In the last three years, the system has faced a $50 billion bailout of Mexico, a $57 billion bailout of South Korea, $43 billion for Indonesia, $18 billion for Thailand, for a total of $118 billion in Asia (some estimate it will eventually rise to $160 billion) to fend off its own destruction. But by delaying the day of reckoning with bailouts, the international mountain of dollars and debt grows, making the inevitable collapse all the more devastating. - Jeffrey M. Herbener [Mises Institute senior fellow]

The IMF wants to use American taxpayers' money to delay the inevitable so that investors -- both domestic and foreign -- in Russia can sneak out the back door with whatever they can salvage before the roof crashes in on them. Most of the money will end up, one way or another, in secure bank accounts outside of Mother Russia. And, the system will implode anyhow, just a little later than it would have without the payoffs. It's time to pull the plug on this patient. It will be painful in the short term, but doling out more cash will only extend the agony and put off the eventual recovery. - R. H. Wheatley

As we predicted, the "solutions" that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) foisted on Indonesia, such as sky-high interest rates, were so wrong that a revolution began boiling and it was almost impossible to get a seat on an airplane out of the country because roads were blocked and cars were getting hijacked. We are delighted to report to you that even the shamed IMF staff had to fearfully flee Indonesia's vengeful mobs, secretly, in a chartered aircraft, skulking, before dawn, proving yet again that God exists. - James Dines

In Indonesia you can now get three pounds of sugar, one pound of coffee, one bottle of wine and a wife for only ten US dollars. (But it's a dreadful wine!) - James Dines

To appreciate the horrendous magnitude of the Indonesian's total losses, let's translate it into US dollars. Suppose a typical Indonesian had the equivalent of $10,000 invested in their stock market. In the last 12 months his stock portfolio plunged in value to only $1,500. But while this hell was consuming his life-long savings, the value of the rupiah also freefell 85%. His "nest egg" is now worth a mere $225. What probably took 15-20 years of family toil and sacrifice to accumulate was decimated by 98%... ALL WITHIN A 12-MONTH PERIOD. - "Oracle"

The rescue of the yen.... doesn't signal the end of the Asian crisis. It merely is a testament to just how desperate the situation has become. - John Crudele

Unlike its Asian neighbours, Japan does not owe money. Japan's problem is entirely internal. It is a simple case of internal mismanagement. Despite the prevailing negative sentiment, Japan still retains a very strong consumer sector, powerful industries with ample exporting capabilities, and above all, diligent people. Trouble skyrocketed primarily because its government tried to hide facts and attempted to rescue the wrong industries at the taxpayers' expense.... Japan requires a political vision strong enough to allow bad banks and corporations to exit, and smart enough to open the economy to the globally competitive ones.... the recovery will be fast if the enormous amount of wealth, currently hijacked by the MoF to rescue the wrong people, is used for the benefit of all. - Kenichi Ohmae [managing director of Ohmae and Associates, and author of The Borderless World]

In recent years, the incredible proliferation of Yen in Japan in response to financial aberration has done nothing to right the economy. It has merely served to stave off the catharsis of institutional failures needed to start afresh. Japan's denial of economic reality is institutionalized itself! It is not a higher sea of money and credit that is needed to "stimulate" the Japanese economy. It is a retrenchment to sanity that is required. But today, the lunatics are running the asylum. - Mike Sheller

The correlation between economic growth and political freedom -- taken as a matter of theology by many -- actually has little support in experience.... Business rewards efficiency, and dictatorships can, in certain circumstances, be far more efficient than democracy. In fact, businesses often have a strong incentive to oppose political change. - Robert Lighthizer

After years of "good economy" stories in the midst of increasing repression, cynicism, "downsizing," growing disparity in income, and "the 'temping' of America," an economic collapse would at least be a dose of reality after so many years of lies. - Brian Redman

Somebody came into our waters and shot down -- for the first time ever -- a flag carrier of the United States... [TWA Flight 800] was intentionally destroyed by a powerful, proximity fused, airbursting, anti-aircraft weapon launched from a position approximately one nautical mile off shore and three nautical miles east of Moriches Inlet, Long Island, New York.... [the airplane was] engaged seconds later by a second missile fired from a closer position to the south of [the plane's] track.... Politicians are interfering at the top. People that should be bubbling the answers from the bottom are silenced - Commander Bill Donaldson [retired Navy pilot and accident investigator, July 20, 1998]

Paul Angelides, an engineer, who has a home on the island only a little over a mile from the estimated launch point, saw the [first] missile ascending. He said the noise was so great that it shook his house. He watched the missile streak southward toward TWA 800, seven nautical miles away, and explode. - Reed Irvine

How does Big Media, with all the money it spends on survey research, manage to keep missing the fact that its implacable antigun stance is shared by only a fringe of the American mainstream? There are guns in half the households in this country. Civilians own more than 220 million firearms. One-third of those are handguns. Unlike .... editorialists, Americans don't demonize gun owners. They are gun owners.... Guns make us safer. As gun ownership rises, violent crime drops. The more likely that a victim may be armed, the less likely that he - or she - will be attacked. And when victims are attacked, guns tilt the odds in their favor. - Jeff Jacoby

The Department of Transportation, acting in response to legislation quietly passed by the Congress and signed by President Clinton, is moving to create a de facto national ID card without any serious public debate. Such a card has been central to the maintenance of dictatorial control in authoritarian nations. Americans have historically opposed such enforced identification. Under the new plan, however, states that fail to comply with the identification program based on Social Security numbers will not be permitted to participated in a variety of functions involving federal support. Individuals will also be required to use the national ID card in order to get routine services. For example: Non-conforming [state drivers'] licenses will not be accepted for identification by any federal agency including law enforcement, and passport offices; the national ID will be required to prove one is an American citizen qualified to receive employment; it will be necessary under new healthcare rules to submit the ID in order to receive medical care funded under Medicaid and Medicare; it will be required to board a commercial plane and thus will serve as a mandatory internal passport, something never before required in the US. - Sam Smith

The President perjured himself.... The truth is that we had an ongoing 12-year relationship.... Perjury is perjury whether it's in reference to Monica Lewinsky or myself. - Gennifer Flowers

Those appearing so knowledgeable on TV about what Kenneth Starr has been up to are engaged in a post modern media activity known technically as "talking out your ass." ....most of the people so occupied are in fact faking to an extraordinary degree. The basic reason for this is that, contrary to the impression given, the spin heads do not know what is going on in the grand jury. For their supply of miasmic macrology, therefore, they are forced to go to the only dealer left in the 'hood i.e. the Big Creep. The result is rampantly biased interpretation based on virtually no information from one side and a continual stream of prevarications from the other.... Kenneth Starr may have blown this case or, on the other hand, the Lewinsky matter may be merely a lagniappe to be added to a legal presentation fully confronting years of official illegalities and abuses of power. The point is, we don't know and probably won't until Starr does whatever he intends to do. It doesn't help to pretend otherwise. - Sam Smith

This is every wife's nightmare, that this girl [Lewinsky] will get your husband in the crosshairs and aim at him. I very seldom feel sorry for Bill Clinton, but he didn't have a chance.... Because he's such a pushover. - Lucianne Goldberg

He [Clinton] is a shit. I want to kick him in the balls so that they turn into two flat pancakes. - Monica Lewinsky [to Linda Tripp, on tape]

This is a mess.... There is so much corruption involved here that they are up to their eyeballs in it, particularly Hillary, since she handled all of their finances. The Foster suicide smells to high heaven, but they probably won't reopen that investigation. The taking of the files [from Foster's office] was definitely obstructing justice.... Anything the Clintons turn over now will have been totally sanitized.... Here you have financial gain and abuse of power. I remember when they went after [Commerce Secretary Maurice] Stans for $1,000; meanwhile, Ron Brown takes millions, and nothing is done. And here was Hillary, on the impeachment committee, screaming about the eighteen and a half minutes, and now she's in Little Rock shredding.... In Watergate, we didn't have profiteering, and we didn't have a body. - Richard Nixon [in Monica Crowley's Nixon in Winter]

Communist Party cadres should study the speeches of Hillary Clinton because she offers a very good example of the skills of propaganda. - Yu Quanyu [director of the Chinese Academy of Social Studies]

Y2K QUOTES FOR THE MONTH

MasterCard and Visa are recognized as industry leaders in Y2K-compliance.... that's why 2000-and-beyond cards are now being issued.... and 98% of the card-processing equipment at retailers and banks is supposed to have been fixed, so I was rather surprised that she stumbled onto one of the 2% who still have unremediated gear. Now I am still installing Y2K fixes at work (along with the Unix 10,000th-day fix), and I write about the issue quite a bit, but it all has seemed..... well, theoretical.... until she actually experienced the failure (and rejection). There's nothing like personal experience to drive the point home.

We don't have any problems yet.... We'll deal with the problem in the year 2000. - Vladislav Petrov [Russian Atomic Energy Ministry spokesman]

I said, "Mr. Vice President, you'd be perfect for it" [Y2K]. He said he didn't have time for it. - Connie Morella (R-Md.)

If today were December 31, 1999, and our systems were in the current state they are in today, tomorrow our economy worldwide would stop. It wouldn't grind to a halt. It would snap to a halt. You would not have a dial tone tomorrow if tomorrow were January 1st, year 2000. You would not have air travel. You would not have Federal Express. You would not have the Postal Service. You would not have water. You would not have power. Because the systems are broken. I know you don't like hearing it. I know it is classed as hype and exaggeration. The problem is: it happens to be a fact which you yourself can verify. - Peter de Jager [June 2, 1998]

In my own view, it [Y2K] is a particularly large global disaster in the making. I am convinced the problem is vastly underappreciated. - Jerry Jasinowsky [National Association of Manufacturers president]

I think there will be substantial dislocations in the U.S. - John Westergaard [president, Westergaard Year 2000]

Capers Jones' estimates of Y2K remediation efforts (as of June 1998) of U.S. sectors:

                     % On Time       % Lagging

Urban Governments        10               90
Water Departments        20               80
Hospitals/Health Care    20               80
Retail Stores            20               80
State Governments        30               70
Electric Power           30               70
Federal government       30               70
Manufacturing            35               65
Telephone Companies      65               35
Airlines                 60               40
Insurance                75               25
Banks                    80               20
Overall in the US        40               60

The other thing I know a great deal about is institutional investors. I talk to them all the time. I started to research and think about this problem and put out a recession alarm last summer, and I -- you know, I was naive, I guess. When I first wrote about it I thought I was going to get some real -- some response from the institutional client base -- you know, Fidelity, Trust Company of the West, T. Rowe Price -- all of these institutions that I talk to constantly. Nothing. Nothing. Then, about two, three months ago, a lot of these institutions started calling me up and said, "You know, we generally like most of your work, but this Y2K stuff, we've been just chucking it out.... Would you do us a favor and send us everything you've written on the subject? And come in and tell us why this is a big deal." So I'll tell you this: institutional money managers are starting to want to understand the problem, and a few of them are starting to get alarmed, and a few of them are starting to ask me what they should do. Do they hedge themselves? When do they become more defensive? When do I think the market is going to take this problem more seriously? Well, they are the markets. I tell them, "Listen to yourself. You make the markets. You guys are the major institutions. If you're starting to get alarmed about it, you know the market is going to figure this out fairly shortly." So between Asia and the year 2000 problem, we've got a real problem up ahead here. - Ed Yardeni [June 2, 1998]

....I sat next to one of the top officials at the Federal Reserve who told me that it was his idea to invite me [to Basel] because he had seen me scare the living daylights out of the securities industry at a convention in New York in February, and he wanted me to do to the central bankers what I had done in New York in February. And then he said to me, "But tell me the truth. Aren't you just exaggerating a little bit just to get people to take this more seriously and maybe to get some visibility for yourself?" And I said to him, "I don't need this kind of visibility. I was perfectly happy being an optimist." And then I said to him -- looked him straight in the eyes and I said, "I'm holding back." - Ed Yardeni [June 2, 1998]

I've given many presentations with Ed [Yardeni].... we have an investment model that is focused solely on [Y2K] compliance. We don't read Wall Street research anymore. It's meaningless. And until you speak to mission-critical systems, you are not going to understand the value of an organization, whether it be the government, an institution, or your own shareholders.... in all our research as we've gone through the electricity, telecom, shipping, and government, [it shows] that we are going to see system failures increase substantially in the second half of this year to the point when we get to 1/1/99 it will be very visible. The federal government right now is crippled. We need to accept that fact and move into a period of contingency planning.... We believe that you're going to have a recession in the second half of 1999.... The second part is foreign trade. We've done research on that, and unfortunately, technology supports foreign trade in a very dramatic way -- both mission critical and non-mission critical.... it will have a very significant impact. - Dennis Graebel

To ask an IT department who would have difficulty delivering Year 2000 compliancy by January the 1st, Year 2000 also -- not just to change the currency, but to basically re-engineer the entire way in which you handle finances in your corporation at the same time is a prescription -- is Kevorkian in the room? -- It is a prescription for self-imposed suicide. Now, I don't know if we can make it any plainer. They will get Euro done. There is no doubt in my mind they will do Euro first. And then they will blame the IT departments for not delivering Year 2000 on time as they fail into oblivion. It is the act of people who say that we understand Year 2000, but don't touch the Euro. In other words, we understand that if we don't fix this [Y2K], we will fail. But we can't interfere with the Euro. - Peter de Jager [June 2, 1998]

We just don't know the status of the federal government.... Our entire way of life is at risk, we are so dependent on digital equipment. We won't be able to conduct national security, collect taxes, distribute benefits, manufacture products, or manage commerce. - Rona Stillman [chief scientist for the General Accounting Office]

We've worked hard to be ready. I set a government-wide goal of full compliance by March of 1999.... The American people have a right to expect uninterrupted service from government, and I expect them to deliver.... No one will ever find every embedded microchip, every line of code that needs to be rewritten. But if companies, agencies and organizations are ready, if they understand the threat and have backup plans, then we will meet this challenge. ....if we act properly, we won't look back on this as a headache, sort of the last failed challenge of the 20th century. It will be the first challenge of the 21st century successfully met. That is the American way, and together we can do it. - Bill Clinton [July 14, 1998]

No one will remember in March [1999] what Clinton said today. When it is brought up that they still are light-years behind in March, more excuses will gush forth. They will again hold up the SSA and forget about all the failing agencies. Clinton gave his speech. Now, tell me. What was different one minute later? Nothing. I am going to save this little snippet for March of next year, when everyone else has forgotten. Full compliance he promised. Not partial. Full. - Paul Milne

As of January 31, we completed the second, or assessment, phase.... The FAA is now in the midst of the third, or renovation, phase.... Of the FAA's 430 mission-critical systems, 141 are already Y2K-compliant. We are renovating 163 systems, replacing or retiring 70, and determining the best strategy to handle eleven systems. This work will be completed by September 30 of this year.... Validation will be completed by March 31, 1999.... Our implementation deadline is June 30, 1999. This is the date by which all FAA systems will be certified and operational as Y2K-compliant. The FAA is looking to move the March 31 validation and June 30, 1999 implementation deadlines up.... The cost estimate for the entire FAA Y2K effort is $191.7 million. Not factored into this cost estimate are the travel expenses for the trip Ray Long and I plan to take on the evening of December 31, 1999. To celebrate New Year's Eve, we will board a plane shortly before midnight ­ Greenwich Mean Time ­ and fly west through all four continental time zones to demonstrate our confidence to the flying public that the nation's airspace system is safe. Ray says he expects this to be an utterly normal ­ but deeply satisfying ­ trip. - Jane F. Garvey [Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration]

....regarding a Year 2000 review on the 3083 hardware and microcode for the FAA HOST contract.... Analysis of 3083 microcode involves reviewing hundreds of thousands of lines of microcode written in several different protocols. This code was written in the 1970s to support an architecture that has changed dramatically over the ensuing years and new processor generations. IBM does not have the skills employed today that understand the microcode implemented in the 3083 well enough to conduct an appropriate Year 2000 assessment. In addition, the tools required to properly analyze the microcode do not exist.... IBM believes it is imperative that the FAA replace this equipment prior to the Year 2000. - Kenneth R. Thornton [IBM letter to Lockheed Martin, October 2, 1997. Nick's note: The FAA says it hired two retired programmers to examine the 3083 microcode, and they found that the 3083 counts years from 1 to 32, with 1975 = year 1. Thus the 3083 hardware should, in theory, work correctly until 2007, if the FAA can continue to find spare parts. I, personally, would feel much happier if the FAA took one of these 3083s "off-line" and advanced the clock on it to test it, just to be sure.]

There will be maybe an 80-percent reduction in air traffic at some time.... I'm going to recommend to the Senate that an emergency hospital financing corporation be established to provide emergency financing to hospitals because the whole flow of Medicare reimbursement will come to a halt. - John Westergaard [president, Westergaard Year 2000]

Let me break it down as my current best guess.... I believe the power grid will work. I expect we will have brownouts and regional blackouts, and in some areas of the country there will be power failures. But the power grid as a whole will not go down.... I believe the financial system will work.... I wouldn't want to trade stocks on the Nikkei in Tokyo, but I think the security system will probably work. I think the banking system will work. I think there are individual banks that will probably go bankrupt.... I think water will be available in most municipalities, but I am convinced there are some where the water system will break down.... I am very concerned about the health care system. There are health care entities that may very well go bankrupt because they cannot get reimbursement from Medicare and Medicaid.... There are medical machines that will fail in ICU units. There are hospitals that are far enough away from other hospitals that they have no backup, and if they have a failure in some of their machines or in some of their supplies, there will be people who will be affected by that in terms of patient care.... I'm concerned about counties. What's going to happen to the social fabric in this country if a county in a large, populous area cannot deliver welfare checks? What kind of riots might occur? ....Do I think the Defense Department will fall apart? No. But I am glad we're not engaged in a major war when this hits, because the Defense Department will have serious challenges.... The phone system, I think, will work.... I think the air traffic control system will work, but I expect we will probably be rationing flights. I don't think it will work at the same level that it currently is.... - Robert Bennett (R-Utah) [before the National Press Club, July 15, 1998]

IRS; serious, serious troubles at IRS. - Robert Bennett (R-Utah) [same speech]

When I talk to government programmers, they all believe - and it's pretty much unanimous - that they're not going to make it. - Michael P. Harden [president and CEO of Century Technology Services, Inc.]

My wife works for Social Services. Anyone supporting a foster child gets a check from the state. Recently all people with children that turned 18 in Y2k did not receive their checks from the state. It was identified as a Y2K problem. No one thought about this ahead of time. - Dennis Good

Went to my county business office today [July 6] to look up my tax records. Computers were down and wouldn't be back up for a couple of days. I was told to come back then. Went over to another county office, and was told that their computers weren't operating! So I guess I can go build that extra building on my lot and not have to take out a permit or pay taxes on it! GOOOOODY! I asked if it was a Y2K problem and the clerk admitted it! - Walter Womack

I work in the IT industry as an analyst/designer and project manager. I recently left a contract for the third largest electric cooperative in the United States - it covers a huge part of the state of Texas. In February of this year the head of IT for this entire utility came to me and asked "what's this Y2K thing?" I am fairly certain that the application (their billing system) is compliant because of the Oracle tools they used. But I can't be sure because the project was in chaos before I came on board - the lead architect was hiding his code, etc., inadequate testing for any kind of compliance was done... My point is this. This electricity co-op doesn't have a clue. They are sitting somewhere in the '50s in terms of management awareness and style... they think because their billing system is in Oracle - that that is all they have to worry about. They haven't given a thought to the other software systems that they have developed to handle their business over the years in Userbase or other such languages.... (By the way, I have purchased several acres of remote land and am developing it. I do NOT plan on being in this area on 1/1/00...) - Chana Campos

A friend of mine who works in one of the nuke plants tells me nothing critical is machine-controlled and everything can be handled manually. He insists there will be no problems of any magnitude in the plants he's familiar with. He should know, and he wouldn't beat around the bush if there were problems he knew about. - Lee P. Lapin

The Year 2000 issue is possibly the most critical problem we have ever faced at AT&T.... I'm pleased to report that - through May of this year -- we have assessed 91% of our application lines of code, repaired 72% of those that needed modification, and application-certified over 40%.... AT&T is on target to complete network element certification by year-end 1998, with full deployment no later than June 1999. - John Pasqua [Program Management Vice President of the AT&T Year 2000 initiative]

I have already talked to people at at least one major bank that swore up and down that they were compliant already, and then they admitted that their customer service people lied to me. They even volunteered to put their compliance in writing. And yet they were not compliant when push came to shove. They lied. - Paul Milne

I work in the IS department of a Fortune 500 company which has made great strides in the area of Year 2000 remediation. I'm willing to bet that all our competitors are doing the same thing. There is only one word for companies that aren't - LOSER. I do have concerns in certain areas, especially government. They do not operate by the profit motive. The only way they could lose is by losing taxpayer dollars. They've got nothing to lose by failing to issue checks. What are all the welfare recipients going to do if they don't get paid - go on strike? Hunger strike, maybe. If you receive a check from a government agency, be concerned. Otherwise, I wouldn't worry too much. - Amy Leone

Today, Asia is toast. In the year 2000, Asia will be burnt toast. In Asia, they have a year 1998 problem. Most companies have a 90-day business plan of how they're going to stay in business for the next 90 days. They are doing this month by month over in Asia. They have totally been distracted and resourced away from dealing with the year 2000 problem. - Ed Yardeni [June 2, 1998]

I think the year-2000 fix will be costly, but year-2000 glitches will not take the global economy down.... There is not one shred of evidence that suggests that year-2000 compliance or non-compliance will have any effect on the U.S. business cycle. - Steve Roach [chief economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter]

I.... have come to the conclusion that, Y2K faddists to the contrary, this thing won't seriously hurt the stock market or cause you any other major inconvenience.... Y2K is heavily covered [by the media]. Even the SEC has pronounced its fear of Y2K. So ignore it. In 1995 I wrote this: "If you read or hear about some investment idea or significant event more than once in the media, it won't work. By the time several commentators have thought and written about it, even new news is too old." In that spirit I say: Forget Y2K. - Kenneth L. Fisher [Forbes columnist]

Almost any investment counselor will try and debunk Y2k problems. They fear for their livelihood. No investors means they have no income. Can't say that I blame them, but I just keep thinking of the people getting potentially harmful information. - Frank Anderson, Jr.

Having spoken to numerous professionals who place permanent and contract programmers it appears that the [programmer] shortage hasn't grown in a year (still 350k) because so many companies did get a late start that they were forced to shift resources from new development to Y2k. By shifting internal resources they avoided having to hire as many contractors and new hires. Further, when they shut down some of those development projects they killed the additional hiring opportunities those projects would have produced. Incompetence is not a prerequisite to being in management! - Oscar Swischne

....the issue is not whether programmers are going to bail out before 1 Jan 2000, but rather whether they'll come back to work on Monday, January 3rd. A few months ago, two different programmers from two different banks in the Denver area told me the same story: they have already received a memo from their boss, informing them that all vacation time has been canceled for the fourth quarter of 1999 and the first quarter of 2000. Both programmers told me they're prepared to work 7 days a week during the last quarter of 1999, but they doubt very much that they'll show up at the office on January 3rd.... - Ed Yourdon

I think a lot of people view it as computer programmers trying to show the world just how powerful they are. "Yes, we can bring the world to its knees with our little programs!" It's just an amusing ploy by a group of nerds to draw attention to themselves. It remains to be seen who gets the last laugh. - Amy Leone

When I said I was selling our home of 18 years in Sydney and moving out to the boonies for safety, my wife took our kids (12 year old twins, boy and girl) and moved in with her parents. With her 60% of our assets the family is adding another storey to the home. I took the kids out for the day yesterday and again tried to warn about Y2K to my wife. It was like waving a red flag to a bull. Her love has already turned to hatred (as my "madness", as she sees it, is the cause of all her problems). Her parents dismiss my fears as insane. They lived through the great depression and refuse to consider that what is coming will not be the same. (After all, in the '20s there was a great sense of community spirit and each one helped his neighbour... Not any more.) All I can do is back off, and continue making preparations on my own. - David Harvey

Ah, the unscrupulousness of book authors. They write books on anything, just to sell their books. They put their reputations on the line just to sell their books. Is there a market out there? Write a book! ... Take a topic that is inherently implausible -- and that describes y2k -- and write a book on it. Overcome the readers' psychological skepticism of incomparable proportions -- yes, that's the way to make big bucks. Tell people what they don't want to hear. Tell them what radio investment commentators dismiss out of hand. In short, get rich by fighting the tape.... as a book publisher and author of 43 books -- none on y2k -- let me say that there are many ways to lose money in book publishing, and the best one is trying to convince people of what they do not want to believe. That's why every y2k book avoids my position: that Western civilization is at the brink. - Gary North

The critic refers to the fact that the man may be selling something related to y2k, as if the person owed it to the public for free, as if there were an unlimited supply of free information that can save lives. This implies that physicians would invent a career-threatening fake story about a coming plague just to get some lecture fees for a few years. It's nuts; it's also common. Show me a person who raises this argument, and I'll show you an envy-driven person in y2k denial who has no answers. - Gary North

After months of reading and studying the experts, gurus and news groups I have come away with the following: We could fix all the software if only there was enough time. Even if we could fix the software, the embedded chips would get us. Even if we could fix all the software, hardware and embedded chips, the public panic and resulting riots would get us. Even if we could calm the public, the rest of the world will not be ready for y2k and we would slowly starve to death except of course if our ICBMs accidentally fire and start WWIII. We must also take care that our traditional enemies don't panic and send theirs first. I have not even mentioned the terrorists from all over, mideast, far east and home-grown, who will seize the opportunity to poison and bomb us. Let's not forget all the nuclear reactors made by the Russians and Chinese that will probably melt down and kill us all with their lethal radioactive clouds. Even if y2k is a bump in the road, the Government is planning to turn us over to the UN and all dissidents will be confined in concentration camps spread out all over the country and administered by soldiers from ex-Soviet-bloc countries.... If all of these scenarios are correct, there will be no world to conquer and no profit to the conquerors who, if they step outside of their bunkers, will die from the bugs and gas and radiation which will have killed their armies anyway. Do I have it right? Or is this like a menu in a Chinese restaurant and I can select 1 from column a and 2 from column b and when do I get egg roll? - Bill Solorzano

....many Y2K "experts" insist that most organizations have started far too late to fix all their systems. It is sad that just because these experts have watched a few hundred non-Y2K-compliant systems crash and burn, and have seen how long it takes just to test a system, and have seen that organizations are allocating only a fraction of the needed resources to the problem, they think they can do some math and declare that almost everyone is ridiculously behind schedule. These experts obviously haven't watched enough television. By now, everyone should know that no problem is too big, and no odds are too high for a scrappy group of misfits who appear a little rough around the edges, yet when the going gets tough they can do the impossible. I can't count how many times I saw "The A-Team" take only one afternoon to create, for example, a tactical stealth helicopter using nothing but duct tape and an abandoned '76 Pacer. Certainly, our computer engineers could muster an equivalent feat! I bet that MacGyver alone could fix the Y2K problem using nothing but PVC pipe, a transistor radio, and Gouda cheese. - Paul Milne

First he didn't inhale. Now he didn't take oral sex to completion. Hmmmm. Do we see a pattern here? Skip to future: It is 2000, the government has collapsed, and Bill is brought before a tribunal to answer to alleged lies that he committed in speeches to the American public. Did he read the landmark GAO [Y2K] reports of 1998 or didn't he? "Well, yes, Your Honor, I looked at those reports - yes sir. I did not really 'read' them, though, if you know what I mean, hee hee. You see, my eyes went over the words, yes, but my eyes did not actually inha... errr .... transmit the meaning of the words to my brain. I looked, but I did not actually read. You see? So when I said that I read the reports back in that 1998 speech, I really meant that as I define the word 'read', I did read them. You do understand what I'm saying, don't you....?" - Paul LeBlanc

The idea of that everything can be fixed is part of our deep belief.... Our near-total belief in things like money, gross national product, the sanctity of jobs, the free market, the invisible hand, can be seen, if we look at our society with the eye of an anthropologist, to be basically, fundamentally, profoundly religious. From this perspective we can say that we have been living in one of the great ages of faith in history. - Douglass Carmichael

STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK

Problem is, once a bear market gets underway, the stampeding herd generally way overshoots the "average" values.... that's what helps makes them average. Our worst bear market, during the Great Depression, saw the market trade as low as 16% of GDP, with GDP itself halved by the depression. In today's numbers, that would translate into a Dow bottom of about 540.To see dividend yields return to the 6% level as occurred at the bear-market bottom of July/August 1982 (a more typical big bear), the Dow would decline to about 2500. "Fair value", in terms of the competing yields on (currently) risk-free government securities, for the Dow is about 3600; the 1987 Crash, with derivatives calling the tune, took the Dow right to its fair value before the computers were sated.

So far, stocks seem to be closely parallelling their behavior in 1987, where most stocks topped in April, while the popular averages, fueled by money pouring into the big-cap stocks, continued to rally. If current trends continue to track 1987 behavior, the Dow will top out in mid-to-late August around 9800. (My own opinion is that the peak is already past, but I've said similar things before, only to be proved wrong, so why should I set myself up again?)

One thing we can expect for sure: When the inevitable deluge comes, there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth (to say nothing of portfolios). There are many, many more people now participating in this mania than there were in 1987, many more novices who will slink away, nursing their hurts, not returning for another whole generation. October, anyone? Did I hear somebody suggest October as the month of the meltdown? It's traditional, and the current timing points to that period.

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

COMMENT on "Timer's Trend": A very weak "buy" was given July 6 (which I reported late on the warmline.... I was away, looking at daylily gardens on Long Island), followed by a strong "sell" on July 21, resulting in no profit for anybody who could trade the signal pair. The behavior of "Timer's Trend" underscores the severe "technical" deterioration of this stock market.... only the big-cap stocks are still afloat.... and is one of the reasons I think the ultimate highs for the dying bull are behind us, except I'm not going to say that, because I've been burned before. At any rate, the severe technical deterioration tells us that the next major "correction", as the bulls would have it, is going to be a humdinger.

______________________________  TIMER'S TREND  _________________________________
Mon 23 Feb 98        .  |  . #     | 8410.20  | .  +        *
Tue 24 Feb 98        .  | #.       | 8370.10  | . + *
Wed 25 Feb 98        .  |  .   #   | 8457.78  | . +                   *
Thu 26 Feb 98        .  |  .  #    | 8490.67  | .  +                        *
Fri 27 Feb 98        .  |  . #     | 8545.72  |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  2 Mar 98        .  |  . #     | 8550.45  | .  +                 *
Tue  3 Mar 98        .  |  . #     | 8584.83  | .  +                        *
Wed  4 Mar 98        .  |  .#      | 8539.24  | .  +               *
Thu  5 Mar 98        .  |# .       | 8444.33  |~*~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri  6 Mar 98        .  |  .    #  | 8569.39  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  9 Mar 98        .  |  .#      | 8567.14  | . +                 *
Tue 10 Mar 98        .  |  .   #   | 8643.12  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 11 Mar 98        .  |  .  #    | 8675.75  | .  +                       *
Thu 12 Mar 98        .  |  . #     | 8659.56 @| .   +                   *
Fri 13 Mar 98        .  |  . #     | 8602.52  | .  +         *
Mon 16 Mar 98        .  |  .  #    | 8718.85  |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 17 Mar 98        .  |  .#      | 8749.99  | .  +                       *
Wed 18 Mar 98        .  |  . #     | 8775.40  |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 19 Mar 98        .  |  . #     | 8803.05  | .  +                      *
Fri 20 Mar 98        .  |  .  #    | 8906.43  |~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 23 Mar 98        .  |  . #     | 8816.25  |~.~*+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 24 Mar 98        .  |  .  #    | 8904.44  | .  +                    *
Wed 25 Mar 98        .  |  .#      | 8872.80  | .  +              *
Thu 26 Mar 98        .  |  . #     | 8846.89  | .  +        *
Fri 27 Mar 98        .  |  #       | 8796.08  |~.~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 31 Mar 98        .  |  . #     | 8799.81  | . +    **
Wed  1 Apr 98        .  |  . #     | 8868.32  | . +                     *
Thu  2 Apr 98        .  |  .  #    | 8986.64  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri  3 Apr 98        .  |  . #     | 8983.41  | . +                 *
Mon  6 Apr 98        .  |  .#      | 9033.23  |~.~~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue  7 Apr 98        .  |# .       | 8956.50  | . +  *
Wed  8 Apr 98        .  I  #       | 8891.48  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu  9 Apr 98        .  |  .  #    | 8994.86  | .+                        *
Mon 13 Apr 98        .  |  #       | 9012.30  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 14 Apr 98        .  |  .  #    | 9110.20  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 15 Apr 98        .  |  .  #    | 9162.27  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 16 Apr 98        .  I# .       | 9076.57  |~.~+*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 17 Apr 98        .  |  .  #    | 9167.50  | . +                      *
Mon 20 Apr 98        .  |  .#      | 9141.84  | . +                *
Tue 21 Apr 98        .  |  .#      | 9184.94  | . +                        *
Wed 22 Apr 98        .  |  .#      | 9176.72  | .+                       *
Thu 23 Apr 98        .  I# .       | 9143.33  | .+                  *
Fri 24 Apr 98        . #I  .      {| 9064.62  | +   *
Mon 27 Apr 98     *  . #I  .       | 8917.64  | +.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
Tue 28 Apr 98        . #I  .       | 8898.96  |-.~~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 29 Apr 98        .  I  #       | 8951.52  | -                *
Thu 30 Apr 98        .  I  .   #  ]| 9063.37  |+~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri  1 May 98        .  |  .  #   }| 9147.07  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  4 May 98        .  |  . #     | 9192.66  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue  5 May 98        .  I #.       | 9147.57  | . +         *
Wed  6 May 98        .  I# .      {| 9054.65  |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu  7 May 98        .  &  .       | 8976.68  |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri  8 May 98        .  I  .#      | 9055.15  | +                     *
Mon 11 May 98        .  I #.       | 9091.52  |+.                           *
Tue 12 May 98        .  I #.       | 9161.77  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 13 May 98        .  I #.       | 9211.84  |~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 14 May 98        .  I# .       | 9172.23  | +           *
Fri 15 May 98        . #I  .       | 9096.00 *|+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 18 May 98        #  I  .       | 9050.91  |*+.~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tue 19 May 98        .  I# .       | 9054.65  + .      *
Wed 20 May 98        .  I# .       | 9171.48  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 21 May 98        .  &  .       | 9132.37  |-.           *
Fri 22 May 98        .# I  .       | 9114.44  |-.        *
Tue 26 May 98       #.  I  *       | 8963.73  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed 27 May 98     #  .  I  .       | 8936.73  |~.*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu 28 May 98        .  &  .       | 8970.20  | .-           *
Fri 29 May 98        .  &  .       | 8899.95  |*.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon  1 Jun 98        .# I  .       | 8922.57  | .-          *
Tue  2 Jun 98        . #I  .       | 8872.30  |~-*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wed  3 Jun 98        .# I  .       | 8803.80  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thu  4 Jun 98        .  &  .       | 8870.56  |-.                   *
Fri  5 Jun 98        .  I  #       | 9037.71  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon  8 Jun 98        .  I #.       | 9069.60  + .                          *
Tue  9 Jun 98        .  &  .       | 9049.92  + .                      *
Wed 10 Jun 98        #  I  .       | 8971.70  + .      *
Thu 11 Jun 98    #   . *I  .       | 8811.77  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fri 12 Jun 98       #.  I  .       | 8834.94  | .-         *
Mon 15 Jun 98    #*  .  I  .       | 8627.93  |~.~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
Tue 16 Jun 98        .# I  .       | 8665.29  | .  -          *
Wed 17 Jun 98        .  I #.       | 8829.46  |~.~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 18 Jun 98        #  I  .       | 8813.01  | .-                *
Fri 19 Jun 98       #.  I  .       | 8712.87  *~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mon 22 Jun 98        . #I  .       | 8711.13  | -     *
Tue 23 Jun 98        .  I #.       | 8828.46  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 24 Jun 98        .  I #.       | 8923.87  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu 25 Jun 98        . #I  .       | 8935.58  |-.                      *
Fri 26 Jun 98        . #I  .       | 8944.54  + .                        *
Mon 29 Jun 98        .  | #.       | 8997.36  +~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Tue 30 Jun 98        .  |# .       | 8952.02  + .          *
Wed  1 Jul 98        .  |  . #     | 9048.67  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu  2 Jul 98        .  | #.       | 9025.26  |+.               *
Mon  6 Jul 98        .  |  .#     }| 9091.77  | +                           *
Tue  7 Jul 98        .  |# .       | 9085.04  | +                          *
Wed  8 Jul 98        .  |  #       | 9174.97  |~.+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Thu  9 Jul 98        . #|  .       | 9089.78  |+.   *
Fri 10 Jul 98        .  #  .      [| 9105.74  |+.      *
Mon 13 Jul 98        .  #  .       | 9096.21  + .    *
Tue 14 Jul 98        .  |  #      ]| 9245.54  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 15 Jul 98        .  |# .      [| 9234.47  + .                 *
Thu 16 Jul 98        .  |  #      ]| 9328.19  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Fri 17 Jul 98        .  | #.       | 9337.97  |+.                      *
Mon 20 Jul 98        .  |# .      [| 9295.75  | +             *
Tue 21 Jul 98        #  I  .      {| 9190.19  |+.~~~~~~~~~~~*
Wed 22 Jul 98      # .  I  .       | 9128.91  |-.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~     
Thu 23 Jul 98   * #  .  I  .       | 8932.98  |~.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
Fri 24 Jul 98      # .  I  .       | 8937.36  | . -    *
======================================================================== 

As usual, there will be no issue in August. NEXT ISSUE - will appear about September 25.     /Nick Chase