The Contrarian's View,
Vol. I, #2, September 15, 1986
- THE OIL TAX -
The near-tripling of prices paid by the consumer for gas and oil during the
decade of the 70s was, in effect, a tax on the world economy for the bene-
fit of the oil cartel countries. In fact, it was worse than a tax, because
one expects increased services in return for increased taxes; but in this
case there was no tangible increase in value received for what was paid.
Sure enough, the economy lurched and wheezed, and painfully adjusted to
the higher prices, part of which were paid through reduced economic growth,
and the remainder through inflation (an increase in the money supply) and
borrowing. Our stupid government, wanting to get in on what looked like a
surefire way to increase its revenues, even imposed a new oil excise tax
(inappropriately named the "windfall profits" tax), whose primary impact
was to acerbate the shortage of oil and drive prices even higher.
It took a decade, but finally new supplies of oil.... for which it had be-
come enormously profitable to prospect.... gushed forth, weakening, then
finally breaking the oil cartel's stranglehold. Aha! you might think: If
the oil price increase of the 70s was effectively a tax increase, then the
oil price collapse of the 80s is a hefty tax DECREASE, which is enormously
bullish for the economy. Right?
Yes.... eventually.
For now, we have a problem with the shorter-term effects of the price
decline, primarily because of the way we paid that oil tax of the 70s.
Part of it was paid with a reduced standard of living - consumers paid more
for gas and oil, and spent less on other items. This is a legitimate, if
painful, way to pay for a tax increase. Part was paid by our government de-
liberately depreciating the purchasing power of the dollar, although this
was somewhat self-defeating, as it tended to accelerate oil's price spiral.
(I hate to call this "legitimate", but it is a time-honored custom for our
government to repay with cheaper dollars.)
The remainder of the oil tax was paid with borrowed money. Recycle the
petrodollars! The oil tax collected by the cartel countries flowed into the
world's money-center banks, where it was loaned out to energy-starved na-
tions to pay for current imports, and to developing countries where it
(logically enough) funded locating and drilling for oil and gas at the
more profitable higher prices.
And how much was borrowed? More than 700 billion dollars, of which more than
a third, about $250 billion, was borrowed from U.S. banks. At the new, lower
oil prices of $10-$15 per barrel, the chances of ever seeing this money
repaid are zilch.
Your family's share of this debt is only $4,200. What's that, you say? Your
$4200 which you have in the bank is money you've been saving for the down
payment on a new car? I'm very sorry, but your $4200 was spent on a now-
rusting oil rig in a now-defunct Mexican oil field. You only THINK you have
$4200 in the bank.
Your bank has a problem. It certainly doesn't want to admit that it will
never be repaid the money it loaned out; otherwise it wouldn't have "your"
$4200 to return to you when you decide to buy that new car. Worse yet, the
debtor countries are so hard up, they can't even pay the interest on the
money they already owe. The solution? Why, loan them more money, so they
can make the interest payments!
And that is just the way the system works. Congress votes money for the
International Monetary Fund (your tax dollars at work!), which in turn loans
it to the hocked-up countries, so they can pay the banks the interest owed
on the outstanding loans, so the banks won't have to declare that the loans
are bad. Your family's share of the $23 billion annual payment to the IMF is
only $383.
Here's how this series of transactions looks:
1. Your share of US taxes sent to the IMF is..................... $ 383
2. The IMF loans this to a debtor country, which returns it to
your bank as an interest payment.............................. $ 0
3. After expenses, your bank pays you 8% interest on your
$4200 certificate of deposit.................................. $(336)
4. This interest is taxable income. You are in the 30% tax
bracket in 1987; your tax is.................................. $ 100
======
NET............... $ 147
This $147 is your annual, ongoing oil tax. This is the amount you pay
in taxes each year to the U.S. government for the previous mistake of
borrowing to buy oil at too-high prices. Plus, you have $4200 indirectly
tied up in that rusting Mexican oil rig.
Oops, on the way to the supermarket your old heap gasps its last breath of
air. Time for a new car. You go to your bank. You not only want your
$4200, but - what gall! - you want to BORROW another $8K, so you can buy a
new car.
Your banker is in a panic. After all, your $4200 is really tied up in that
rusting oil rig, and there's no way of getting it back. What to do? A call
to the Federal Reserve Bank answers the question. No problem, they say;
we'll manufacture the money you need, and ship it out to you. And they do.
And you get your new car.
You can see how much this shell game depends on confidence in the banking
system - confidence that your money will be available when you need it,
and that you will be able to borrow more money easily. Of course, we have
every reason to be confident, as the Federal Reserve has made it clear it
will print whatever amount is needed to return our money on demand. And as
long as confidence in the banks remains at a high level, your annual oil
tax (the penalty for past mistakes) remains a modest $147.
Wait a minute. Somewhere you learned that an increase in the money supply
without a commensurate increase in goods and services produced causes in-
flation. Inflation is coming back, right?
Yes.... eventually.
In the meantime, our government has discovered a wonderful "black hole" into
which it can toss oodles of newly-minted money without increasing inflation.
This black hole is largely the creation of the Federal Reserve, which set
forth in 1981 and 1982 to exterminate the inflation mentality that was then
so prevalent.... and succeeded. Commodity prices spiraled downward, led by
the precious metals and (most recently) oil. Now the public EXPECTS the fu-
ture to be noninflationary, because that is the experience of the recent
past. Since it acts accordingly, the expectation is largely self-fulfilling.
So what happens to the newly-printed money (the money supply has been in-
creasing at an 18% annual rate since January)? (1) Since the public expects
the future to be noninflationary, it's more willing to hang onto cash; so
a dollar now does less "work" in the economy than in previous highly-in-
flationary times. (2) A good chunk of the new money is going to replace
your (and others') hard-earned $4200 which the banks lost in ill-fated
foreign (and sometimes, domestic) ventures. As far as you're concerned,
that $4200 never disappeared. It was still there, waiting for you to with-
draw it when you needed it. So to you it's not NEW money, and you're not
inclined to spend it any more than you would if it had never left the
bank's vaults. (3) The excess money works its way into the stock and bond
markets, where it drives prices higher and higher.
What a wonderful system we have here! For a mere $147 per year, the Fed-
eral Reserve will eventually replace your mis-loaned $4200 (and everybody
else's, too), without causing any increase in consumer prices. Plus, you
don't even have to pay that $147 oil tax. Since we have an inflation-
eating black hole, the government just borrows the money to pay the tax
for you, and the Fed monetizes the debt. Presto! Low prices.... plenty of
money.... no pain.
There are, however, a few dark clouds on the horizon:
1. Black holes have limited lifespans. Eventually the public will realize
it's been taken to the cleaners again, and inflation will come back, prob-
ably with a vengeance.
2. Our oil tax is modest; but in the developing countries where the loans
were squandered, the populace is undergoing real hardship.... sick econo-
mies, massive unemployment, reduced standards of living, rampant infla-
tion, etc. In short, the natives are getting restless. Restless natives
sometimes bring new governments into power. New governments sometimes feel
more loyalty to the people who empowered them, rather than to the yanqui
bankers who financed the previous governments and led their peoples into
their present misery.... and they declare the loans null and void. Up goes
our oil tax! (And the farmland tax.... and the office-building tax....
and.... )
3. As I pointed out in the July letter, the tax bill now being hammered
out by Congress is anti-investment, anti-saving and anti-borrowing.... a
triple threat! If passed, this bill will magnify dark cloud #4, which is:
4. Consumers have already reduced the rate at which they're taking on ad-
ditional borrowing. The present economic recovery was largely financed by
increased, and increasing, consumer borrowing. If this borrowing-rate de-
cline continues, the economy will also decline.
5. More new money means each dollar is worth less, which means the prices
on imported goods will rise. This should become very evident by early 1987.
The Federal Reserve, with its impeccable sense of mistiming, usually greets
higher prices with tighter money.... which would certainly lead us into a
now-overdue recession.
Over the very long term, inflation ALWAYS equals the difference between an
increase in the money supply and the real growth of the economy. For shorter
intervals, the cause-and-effect relationship is highly variable, depending
primarily on whether the mood of the public is inflationary or deflationary.
So, even though the sun still shines, pay close attention to those dark
clouds gathering on the horizon.... and pray that your oil tax shall always
remain small.
- STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK -
In the July letter, I said that I expected lower prices throughout the sum-
mer. For July.... bullseye! For August.... wrong, wrong, wrong. Another
aggressive lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve triggered the
"traditional" mid-August stock market rally. But please note that demand
has become more selective, with aggressive buying much more concentrated
in a few institutional favorites. In July I also said that we were at or
near the peak in a four-year (1982-86) bull market. Even though the Dow
Jones Industrials pierced 1900 again in early September, I still think this
is true..... but time will tell.
I feel we are seeing the beginning of a two-tier market (similar to the
"Nifty Fifty" of 1972). Over the next three to six months, institutional
demand for interest-rate-sensitive (utilities, etc.) and service-sector
stocks will keep their prices stable, or perhaps rising modestly, while
the rest of the market, with the exception of energy and natural-resource
stocks, gently sags as a prelude to the 1987 bear market.
That's right, I said the 1987 bear market. I'll discuss this in more detail
in the October letter.
- WORTH INVESTIGATING -
With most stocks near their highs, where do I look for stocks to buy? In
the industry that's experiencing a depression.... oil and gas. The ripple
effects are being felt throughout the Southwest and Midwest, and here are
some items I would be buying at current levels, if I had more money than
I do:
OIL AND GAS - It may pay to wait a bit to buy most of the integrated oils
(such as Exxon), because their earnings have yet to fully reflect the
drop in oil prices. The oil royalty trusts, master limited partnerships
(see "Hedger's Delight") and oil drilling companies fully reflect the
current dismal state of affairs, though. My picks are:
MORAN ENERGY (Kaneb Services, actually) 8.75% bond due 15 January 2008,
(MOEK, $570, NYSE), convertible into 57 shares of Kaneb Services
common. The bond is now at a 200% premium. The common is trading near
its cash value per share. You get Kaneb's oil/gas and oil services
businesses for free.... although free may be just about what it's worth
right now! [Address: 14141 Southwest Freeway, Sugar Land TX 77478];
Also worth considering (in spite of my comments about integrated oil
companies) is USX CORP., which has the double whammy of being in both
the oil and steel businesses. The common now trades at about one-quarter
of the company's break-up value. Its dividend is in jeopardy; but I like
the $2.25 preferred (X+C, $26, NYSE), convertible into .866 share of
common, now at a 45% premium. Institutional investors seem to hate this
company with a passion.... and a good contrarian hates institutional
investors, a.k.a. "the herd". [Address: 600 Grant Street, Pittsburgh PA
15230.]
BANKS - In Texas and Oklahoma, naturally! These should survive in reason-
ably good shape:
BANKS OF MID-AMERICA $2.50 preferred (BOMAP, $14, OTC), convertible
share for share into the severely-depressed common. This is the strong-
est of the larger Oklahoma banks, and will improve its competitive
position as its less fortunate brethren suffer. The preferred dividend
is in jeopardy, however. [Address: 100 Broadway, Oklahoma City OK 73125.]
INTERFIRST 7.75% bond due 15 August 2005 (IFCD, $695, NYSE), convertible
into 38.834 shares of common. A troubled bank, but the bond offers good
protection at a 155% premium. [Address: POB 83000, Dallas TX 75283.]
MCORP $3.50 preferred (MBK+, $43, NYSE), convertible into 1.354 shares
of common. The preferred dividend looks safe; callable at $50 after 31
October 1988; trades at a 70% premium. [Address: POB 225415, Dallas TX
75265.]
REPUBLICBANK $2.125 preferred A (RPTA, $26, NYSE), convertible into
.857 share of common. The strongest of the troubled Texas banks, and
a good bet to recover with minimal damage. The preferred trades at a
20% premium, and is callable at $25 anytime. [Address: POB 222105,
Dallas TX 75222.]
TEXAS COMMERCE BANKSHARES common (TCB, $26, NYSE, $1.56 dividend). A
former institutional favorite, being a generally well-run bank that has
been done in by low oil prices. I'll bet the institutions will return -
after the clouds have blown away, and the stock has already doubled.
[Address: 600 Travis Street, Houston TX 77002.]
VICTORIA BANCSHARES common (VICT, $15, OTC), in the best financial
condition of all the banks discussed here, but not well known. A 10.5%
convertible bond due 1 September 1997 is also available, convertible
into 36.271 shares of common; it trades over-the-counter in the pink
sheets. [Address: 1 O'Connor Plaza, Victoria TX 77902.]
[Since July (when I wrote the above section on banks) the Texas banks have
had a bit of a runup on speculation that they may become acquirable by
non-Texas banks. Right now (in September) I'd be inclined to wait for the
prices of common shares to settle back, although the preferreds and bonds
still look good to me.]
- PORTFOLIO REVIEW -
Please note that the "Hedger's Delight" portfolio shown in the July issue
has been divided into three separate portfolios, to better illustrate the
success (or failure) of the various strategies. Also, inadvertently omit-
ted in July and now shown here is Mesa Petroleum, under "Future Income".
A. "Hedger's Delight" - model portfolio, includes commissions:
10Sep86
Shrs Description Bought Sold On Sold At Cost Is Value
---- ------------------------------ ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
200 Cosmopolitan Care SHORT 6Aug86 10Feb86 926.66 1057.96 LOSS:
200 Cosmopolitan C wt$4.50/25May87 10Feb86 22Aug86 100.00 247.50 -278.80
.5 Pier 1 Inc. SHORT 18Jul86 23Jan86 5.68 9.00 -3.32
****************************************************************************
100 Bally Manuf wt$40/4Jan88 SHORT 30Oct85 281.23 -212.50
1 Bally Manuf 15Sep98cvbd 60.00 2Oct85 795.00 857.50
20 Computer Consoles SHORT 12Jun86 186.74 -165.00
1 Computer Con 15Feb98cvbd 77.50 24Sep85 685.00 685.00
1 Eastern Air L 1Oct93cvbd 47.50 11Sep85 625.00 550.00
100 Golden Nugget SHORT 28Feb86 1390.67 -1025.00
100 Golden Nugget wt$18/1Jul88 28Feb86 357.50 200.00
50 Integrated Resources SHORT 16May85 913.10 -906.25
15 Integrated Resources SHORT 11Jun85 296.50 -271.88
45 Integrated Resources cvpf 4.25 17Apr85 1560.51 1620.00
25 Integrated Resources cvpf 4.25 15May85 847.50 900.00
30 Integrated Resources cvpf 4.25 11Jun85 1031.13 1080.00
200 Keystone Camera Products SHORT 12Jun86 1023.86 -1125.00
300 Keystone Camra wt$8.25/20Mar90 11Jun86 330.00 375.00
200 McLean Industries SHORT 5Dec85 1777.90 -850.00
200 McLean Industrs wt9.45/15Jul90 5Dec85 510.00 200.00
165 Pier 1 Inc. SHORT 12Nov85 1663.24 -2640.00
82 Pier 1 Inc. SHORT 23Jan86 931.95 -1312.00
100 Pier 1 wt$22/15Jul88 12Nov85 585.00 2175.00
12 Ridgewood Properties (A) SHORT 12Nov85 252.00 -288.00
100 Safeguard Scientifics SHORT 22Nov85 1010.47 -1462.50
20 Safeguard Scientifics SHORT 6Dec85 222.74 -292.50
100 Safeguard Scient wt$12/30Jun87 18Sep85 220.00 475.00
100 Spendthrift Farms SHORT 9Dec85 341.83 -225.00
100 Spendthrift Farms SHORT 10Dec85 341.83 -225.00
500 Spendthrift Farms wt$9/15Mar89 6Dec85 240.63 187.50
200 Wickes wt$4.43/26Jan92 SHORT 28Aug85 427.48 -450.00
50 Wickes wt$4.43/26Jan92 SHORT 6Feb86 104.06 -112.50
280 Wickes Companies (B) 28Aug85 1226.13 1225.00
CASH .00 .00
(A) Pier 1 distribution; (B) 7:1 conversion ------- ------- --------
of $2.50 preferred. 11159.92 9013.40 -1033.13
SUMMARY - "Hedger's Delight":
Original cost: $ 9,398.02
Present value: $10,126.79
Increase (decrease): $ 728.77 (7.8%)
COMMENT on "Hedger's Delight": This portfolio, designed to counterbalance
excessively high or low stock prices, has held its own for the past two
months, even though the market is still near its all-time highs. Cosmo-
politan Care called its warrants for redemption at 50c each in August, and
the hedge was therefore closed out for a loss of $278.80. Other summer
activity: Pier 1 distributed a 3:2 stock split, resulting in a $9 charge
for the leftover 1/2 share; the Computer Consoles bond and Integrated
Resources preferred paid dividends totalling $145; and I have added $104.12
cash to the portfolio to maintain a zero balance. McLean Industries is
having difficulties servicing its debt, and its stock price collapsed in
July.... the portfolio's McLean hedge therefore shows a hefty paper profit,
and I will lock in part of this profit if the price of the common declines
below $3. Under consideration for adding to "Hedger's Delight" are a Horn &
Hardart common/warrant hedge, and purchase of LTV preferred C, for future
hedging purposes.
B. "Future Income" - includes commissions:
10Sep86
Shrs Description Bought Sold On Sold At Cost Is Value
---- ------------------------------ ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
50 Apache Petroleum wt$18/30Sep86 21Dec84 41.25 3.13
20 McDermott Inter'l wt$25/1Apr90 31Mar86 41.25 67.50
100 Mesa Petroleum 6Feb86 275.00 337.50
50 MSA Realty wt$9/1Apr89 7Feb85 89.38 106.25
50 Public Service NH wt$5/15Oct91 22Jan85 96.25 275.00
50 Varity wt$3.60/31May91 31Mar86 24.07 31.25
------- ------- --------
567.20 820.63
SUMMARY - "Future Income":
Original cost: $ 567.20
Present value: $ 820.63
Increase (decrease): $ 253.43 (44.7%)
Yield: $ -
COMMENT on "Future Income": The 50 Apache Petroleum warrants are now also a
right to buy, for $900, one Apache Petroleum 9% bond due July 15, 2001,
convertible after October 1, 1986 into 76 Apache Petroleum units, with call
protection to July 15, 1988. Looks like a good deal to me.... the October
letter will show the addition of this debenture to the Future Income port-
folio.
C. "Crapshooter's Folly" - includes commissions:
10Sep86
Shrs Description Bought Sold On Sold At Cost Is Value
---- ------------------------------ ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
10 BancTexas cvpf 1.46 (div susp) 21Apr86 44.00 42.50
50 Campbell Resrc wt$4.40/31Dec88 11Sep85 6.00 4.00
50 Damson Energy Partners Class A 8Jul86 116.88 87.50
100 Damson Energy Partners Class B 17Jul86 206.25 175.00
100 Energy Developmt wt$20/31Mar87 31Mar86 13.75 3.13
100 Entex Energy Development 1.00 25Jul86 477.50 500.00
100 Entex Energy Development 1.00 30Jul86 371.25 500.00
------- ------- --------
1235.63 1312.13
SUMMARY - "Crapshooter's Folly":
Original cost: $ 1235.63
Present value: $ 1312.13
Increase (decrease): $ 76.50 (6.2%)
COMMENT on "Crapshooter's Folly" - I've added two strictly speculative
items to the portfolio in July, which result from my bottom-fishing in
the oil and gas industry. Both are master limited partnerships; Damson
Energy Partners is heavily debt-laden, and thus highly leveraged; Entex
also has debt, but proportionately not as much as Damson. Both partner-
ships are still pumping oil (or gas), but as the price of oil declines,
the banks accelerate their loan repayment schedules, so the cash flow
all funnels into the banks instead of into investor's pockets. Damson
Energy's parent, Damson Oil Co., is headed for bankruptcy, and could
very well drag Damson Energy into bankruptcy with it.... but I don't
think it will. Entex Energy is in better shape; its parent, Entex Inc.
is a utility committed to invest additional capital in Entex Energy over
the next two years. It will survive, although it may be forced to shut
in a good number of its wells if oil prices remain depressed.
Damson has suspended its quarterly dividend (return of capital, actually)
payments. Entex determines its payments quarterly according to current
conditions in the oil and gas industry; the annual dividend is $1.00 for
1986, but will be cut to 60c next year. Because these are partnerships,
the tax advantages still exist (at least for awhile), even if the banks
get all the cash, so I estimate a 5%-7% aftertax yield for Damson, 15% for
Entex, assuming dividends continue as projected and depending on one's
tax bracket. I estimate that both purchases were at about half of current
asset value, with oil at $8 per barrel. Of course, the double leverage -
oil/gas in the ground and debt to equity - works in reverse when the
price of oil rises.... a crapshooter's delight. One last note on these
two stocks.... if you own them, prepare to fill out a nightmarish series
of forms to file with your 1040 next April. (Fortunately, the partner-
ships provide excellent instructions.)
D. IRA 1 - real portfolio: Twentieth Century
9Sep86
Shares Description Bought Sold On Sold At Cost Is Value
-------- ------------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
2.7410 VISTA 8Mar84 11.32 18.42
5.8240 VISTA 21Mar84 25.10 39.14
1.3680 VISTA 31Aug84 6.50 9.19
.0670 VISTA 12Jan85 .29D .45
1.6630 Cash Reserves 12Jun86 166.28 166.28
.0050 Cash Reserves 30Jun86 .50I .50
E: IRA 2 - real portfolio: Bull & Bear
905.8000 Dollar Reserves 16Jun86 900.80 900.80
.9000 Dollar Reserves 30Jun86 .90I .90
2.4000 Dollar Reserves 15Jul86 2.40 2.40
4.5600 Dollar Reserves 31Jul86 4.56I 4.56
4.0800 Dollar Reserves 29Aug86 4.08I 4.08
--------- --------
$ 1124.73 1146.72
SUMMARY - IRA 1 and 2:
Original cost: $ 952.62
Present value: $ 1146.72
Increase (decrease): $ 194.10 (20.4%)
COMMENT on IRAs: At the Timer's Trend sell signal given on July 7, the form-
ula called for 9% stocks, 91% cash; the portfolio was actually 7% stocks,
93% cash (the result of a prior switch). A buy signal was given on August
13, calling for 9% stocks, 91% cash. This was not terribly different from
the then-existing ratio of 6% stocks, 94% cash, so no action need have been
taken. This is just as well, because I was vacationing in Canada, totally
removed from my computer and with nary a Wall Street Journal in sight, so
I completely missed the signal anyway. The fudgefactor is currently 10%.
=========================== TIMER'S TREND ==============================
Wed 16 Jul 86 . I# . | 1774.18 |-. *
Thu 17 Jul 86 . & . | 1781.78 |-. *
Fri 18 Jul 86 .# I . | 1777.98 | - *
Mon 21 Jul 86 . #I . | 1779.11 | - *
Tue 22 Jul 86 . I # | 1795.13 + . *
Wed 23 Jul 86 . I #. | 1798.37 + . *
Thu 24 Jul 86 . & . | 1791.62 + . *
Fri 25 Jul 86 . I # | 1810.04 |+. *
Mon 28 Jul 86 # . I . | 1773.90 + . *
Tue 29 Jul 86 # . I . | 1766.87 |-. *
Wed 30 Jul 86 # I . | 1779.39 | - *
Thu 31 Jul 86 # I . | 1775.31 | .- *
Fri 1 Aug 86 .# I . | 1763.64 | . - *
Mon 4 Aug 86 #. I . | 1769.97 | . - *
Tue 5 Aug 86 . I# . | 1777.00 | .- *
Wed 6 Aug 86 .# I . | 1779.53 | - *
Thu 7 Aug 86 . I# . | 1786.28 | - *
Fri 8 Aug 86 . I# . | 1782.62 |-. *
Mon 11 Aug 86 . | . # | 1811.16 |+. *
Tue 12 Aug 86 . | . # | 1835.49 | + *
Wed 13 Aug 86 . | . # }| 1844.49 | . + *
Thu 14 Aug 86 . | . # | 1844.91 | . + *
Fri 15 Aug 86 . | . # | 1855.60 | . + *
Mon 18 Aug 86 . | .# | 1869.52 | . + *
Tue 19 Aug 86 . | # | 1862.91 | . + *
Wed 20 Aug 86 . | . # | 1881.33 | . + *
Thu 21 Aug 86 . | . # | 1881.19 | . + *
Fri 22 Aug 86 . | . # | 1887.80 |~.~+~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*
Mon 25 Aug 86 . | #. | 1871.77 | . + *
Tue 26 Aug 86 . | . # | 1904.25 | . + *
Wed 27 Aug 86 . | .# | 1904.53 | . + *
Thu 28 Aug 86 . | .# | 1900.17 | . + *
Fri 29 Aug 86 . | . # | 1898.34 | . + *
Tue 2 Sep 86 . |# . | 1870.36 | . + *
Wed 3 Sep 86 . | . # | 1881.33 | . + *
Thu 4 Sep 86 . | . # | 1919.71 | . + *
Fri 5 Sep 86 . | #. | 1899.75 | . + *
Mon 8 Sep 86 . # . | 1888.64 | .+ *
Tue 9 Sep 86 . I #. | 1884.14 | .+ *
Wed 10 Sep 86 . I# . {| 1879.50 | + *
================================================================================
{, } = "Timer's Trend" (4% and 10% exponential) SELL ({) or BUY (}) signal.
[, ] = 4% exponential change unconfirmed by 10% exponential (not a signal).
This September issue is somewhat lengthier than usual due to the summer
break. NEXT ISSUE - will appear about October 13, and in it I'll take a
look at what Congress has given us for tax "reform".
/Nick Chase